Don’t get me wrong, as you’ll see below, there is a lot worth talking about, including some really hilarious peak college football. Without Shane though, if I’m going to riff by myself, the written word seems like the better medium.

The Other Shoe Drops

While I don’t think that we will ever top last year’s dog-pissing Egg Bowl celebration, that fired two coaches and perhaps set off the butterfly effect of the shit-show that is 2020, college football blessed us all with a supremely stupid moment. Plus, in true beautiful and stupid fashion, this landmark moment in Florida Man history overshowed a whole host of other supremely stupid efforts by the Gators to jettison themselves from the playoff conversation.

Before we get to the other moments of Gator derp, we have to talk about THE MOMENT that was the 20-yard shoe toss that extended an LSU drive that would’ve been an LSU three-and-out, clearly too-big-moment for true freshman QB, Max Johnson. As soon as the play ended I saw Marco Wilson chuck something, and, when two flags came flying in shortly after, the old ECW “YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!” chant was blaring in my head.

What I didn’t expect, was that the object was TE Kole Taylor’s shoe and that the officiating squad would determine that it was extremely important to let us know it travelled 20 yards downfield. This prompted a true moment of Twitter joy, in which my timeline was full of laughter and glee about the stupidity, inquires into what the yardage threshold of shoe flight triggers a penalty, and GIFs of George W. Bush dodging shoes while dueling GIFs of Austin Powers pondered the age-old question of “who throws a shoe, honestly?!”

LSU then drove down the field for what ended up being the game-winning FG, which you may forget was a 57-yard absolute BOMB, prompted LSU to posterize Florida on Twitter after the game. The Gators then responded with a short drive to attempt a 51-yard kick that sailed wide left. Game over, playoff hopes dead, and a whole host of people in College Station likely pissed their best win lost to a Bo Pelini defense that gave up over 600 yards while the third and Grantham meme died, actually holding LSU to only 8 conversions on 19 attempts.

But like I said, diagnosing their Achilles’ heel is no easy task as Florida happily shot themselves in the foot repeatedly even outside the shoe toss. Kyle Trask likely shooed himself out of Heisman contention as his two interceptions overshadowed his 474 yard, 2 TD effort. Prior to the shoe toss, a DPI delivered another swift kick to the third-down junk which led to a Tiger TD late in the fourth. Dan Mullen also tripped over himself to call a timeout before LSU’s game winning field goal attempt while the Tigers were scrambling to get their field goal unit out with no timeouts (and it looked like no holder to me). There was also a highly questionable series of play call choices in the fourth when Florida found themselves feet from their own endzone: three straight passes in as fog rolled continued to descend to field-level.

All credit to LSU for the win, but Florida absolutely snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

One more hilarious note, all day ESPN had been running a bottom line about the playoffs, with a note that Texas A&M and Florida were looking for their first playoff berth. Just a few minutes after the loss, Florida had already been edited out of that line.

Sarah Fuller Makes History, Again

Just a couple weeks after becoming the first woman to play in a Power Five football game, Sarah Fuller booted two extra points, making her the first woman ever to score in a Power Five football game. For anyone thinking this was some stunt that the team wasn’t on board with should check out footage of the team celebration (also, shout-out to the center judge for making sure the historic ball was handed to Fuller directly and not Vandy staff). Fuller also found herself taking photos with her opponents after the game as well.

Seems like the whole narrative over this being a stunt and a slap in the face of other players might just be a load of misogynistic garbage!

Of course, that won’t stop people from trying to shit on this really cool moment. Assholes will happily show you who they are by pointing out that Vandy was able to get another kicker on the roster this week to handle kickoffs and also attempted a 39 yard field goal, which was outside Fuller’s publicized 38-yard range.

The bottom line is that Vandy’s interim staff believed Sarah earned a chance to have her moment. It wasn’t her fault that Vandy got shut out, forcing her to attempt to write history via a squib kick. After taking loads of unwarranted armchair kicking from internet experts, she deserved a chance to get on the score sheet.

The only real disappointment here is Vandy didn’t get into her FG range to prove she could do even more. Trotting her out there for a 39-yard attempt would’ve put her in a position to fail and would’ve been horribly irresponsible by the coaching staff when they need to try to win a game. THAT would’ve been a PR stunt.

So good on everyone involved. This was a very cool moment in a year full of garbage. I genuinely feel sad for anyone spending the energy to drum up outrage over this.

In 2021, the senior will take a grad transfer a few minutes north of me to the University of North Texas to play goalie for the Mean Green. Here’s hoping she might get a chance at a couple more field goals as well.

Fire Gus Season

The annual “Duck Season! Rabbit Season!” is finally over out on the plains. Gus Malzahn’s hot seat reached the boiling point and Auburn has fired the maligned coach. Showing that, even during a pandemic, all Americans have things properly prioritized, Auburn announced they would pay Gus’ $21 million-plus buyout in full. Inspiring.

As I’ve described in pervious weeks on the pod, I felt this was coming. Bo Nix became yet another disappointing QB, failing to show any signs of developing under Gus. Auburn’s offense consistently became more inconsistent despite having some ridiculous weapons at their disposal and, this year, even the usually solid defense took a step back.

Auburn’s 6-4 record could easily be flipped. Two of those wins came thanks to some questionable officiating against Arkansas and Ole Miss, two teams Auburn should have outclassed rather easily.

Simply put, it was time. For whatever reason, things weren’t working out. Auburn will also probably rightly get what they deserve for their malcontent as I not-so-eagerly await for the galaxy brain hire of Hugh Freeze.

Start Up the Carousel

Gus wasn’t the only one to receive his walking papers this weekend. Arizona bid farewell to Kevin Sumlin after giving up a 70-burger to their in-state rival. Lovie Smith, who should’ve never shaved his beard, is gone from Illinois as well.

Huge shoutout to all these universities who will shell out millions for their next hire while complaining about athletic budget shortfalls due to COVID-19.

The Fog of War

The Amry/Navy game delivered a glorious rock fight that not only hit the under of 38 that was discussed on the picks podcast, but did do easily, staying under 20.

Much like LSU/Florida, fog was a player in this game, forcing a heavy use of skycam giving us the classic Madden view, which I’m on board with. When NBC announced their skycam experiment with ND, that is what I was hoping for. Find a way to put the yellow line on the screen and it’s perfect, in my opinion.

As for the game, Army dominated in a 17-0 win. Navy had a lone chance to really make a game of this, but stumbled over themselves after a pitch was swatted by Navy’s defense. Instead of getting a gift scoop and score, Navy failed to recover at all, allowing Army to keep the ball after it rolled out of bounds.

I thoroughly enjoyed it. Especially since this was the first Army/Navy game that I’ve consumed in years due to typically doing my Extra Life marathons during this weekend.

Luck of the…Trojans?

Southern Cal did it once again, somehow winning in the last minute despite being dominated for the majority of the game. A 20-point fourth quarter, ending with a final drive that featured a 56-yard kickoff return, 35-yard pass (with a ridiculous Tyler Vaughns) catch, and a quick 8-yard TD strike to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Every week it looks like SC will finally be pantsed, only for their talent to finally take over just long enough to secure a win. While it’d be nice to believe the luck will finally run out, there’s no guarantee Friday’s Pac-12 Championship tilt against Washington will take place due to COVID issues on the Husky side.

That would then leave the Rose Bowl, which may not be played in the Rose Bowl, and could likely feature Northwestern as their opponent. What a charmed season.

If anything, I think this means Clay Helton has secured a lifetime extension. Lock him up.

Mack Brown Still Hates Manny Diaz

Mack Brown fired Manny Diaz after he gave up 550 yards to BYU while at Texas. Mack apparently didn’t forget as he Tar Heels put up 554 rushing yards against the creator of the turnover chain. Just hate to see something like that to Da U.

A big shout out to Mack’s pettiness as the 62-26 victory made Notre Dame look like a million bucks. While it’ll be interesting to see what the playoff committee has to say tomorrow about specific scenarios, it’s hard to imagine anything put a complete blowout by Clemson to keep the Irish out of the playoffs at this rate.

Can You FedEx a Gift Suite?

In what I’m sure is going to be a potential trend this week, four power five teams have announced their intention to opt out of bowl season:

• Boston College
• Pitt
• Stanford
• Virginia

The reason is largely the same to this point: everyone is done with the heavily restrictive season. A trip to a bowl that will feature little, if any, of the fun events that make the trip worth it, on top of needing to stay away from family and friends, just isn’t worth it.

I can’t blame anyone for this. Honestly, outside of the New Year’s Six, I don’t see much of a point to any of the bowl games. I say this as someone that loves every single dumb bowl game with all his heart. These are typically great rewards for the players after a long season, but it just isn’t there this year. It’s more work. I’d want to go home too.

Dabo Still Sucks

Greg Stankey of the SEC was doing some playoff politicking and took some shots at the ACC for “protecting” Clemson and Notre Dame. Of course, Dabo was asked, and of course he showed his ass AND BROUGHT UP FLORIDA STATE AGAIN:

“I would’ve loved to play this past weekend,” Swinney said. “I had no problem with that. I didn’t make the decision. We wanted to play when we were down in Tallahassee and were about to get on a bus and go play. Things happen.”

Via ESPN

I’ve gone over this before, but Dabo’s game is so old. Politick for your teams. Fine. Stop bringing up the same old crap over and over again, you man-child.

And Right Before I Was Ready to Publish…

Vanderbilt and Clark Lea might just be happening.

Glad I took the week off. Gonna be drinking a lot, it seems.

The post HLS Recap (Text Edition): Soled Out appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

While the Irish kept on trucking, others weren’t as lucky. We were close to a blood weak with multiple ranked teams finding themselves on the wrong side of the score sheet. We were also blessed with what had to be the most insane Red River Shootout and Mike Leach setting a record he probably never expected to.

Podcast

Twitch VoD

The post HLS Recap: Keep on Truckin’ appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Next, you immediately pivot to Fr. Jenkins showing up at Washington D.C. without a mask. An act of “leadership” that I’m sure went over real well for every Notre Dame football player sitting at home this weekend as well as students that aren’t allowed to go see their friends in any type of situation that resembles normal.

Finally, you top it off with the most epic edition of #snacktalk possible as it was the true highlight of football this week.

After that’s all done, then, and only then, do you actually stick to sports.

Podcast

Twitch VoD

The post HLS Recap: Sticking to Sports? appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

It seems fitting, to me at least, that this episode ended up being a complete episode of randomness. This college football/Notre Dame podcast ended up being invaded with video games and baseball talk. For me, the Friday Roundup was always a medium for randomness and this episode absolutely hit that bullseye.

The video game invasion occurred due to my rather last minute decision to take part in Extra Life tomorrow starting at 8am CT. I have a more detailed explanation in the podcast, but the tl;dr is that I am doing this in memory of Aven. You may remember that two years ago, I asked for help in raising money for him and his family and y’all came through big. He may have lost his battle, but I will be Gamin’ for Aven and hope to raise $1,000 for the Children’s Hospital Network of Oklahoma in his memory. So make sure to stop on by during your football Saturday and toss in a couple of bucks for the children.

The Roundup

Time for a few links that were discussed in the recap earlier this week. I got lazy and forgot to link them in the post (oops). Here are the stories about Jalen Hurd bolting Tennessee and Jimbo Fisher ranting on refs.

I would really love to stop talking about Baylor. But the new details that come out are simply too hard to ignore and serve as a reminder as to why Baylor basically needed to burn the whole thing to the ground.

Tom Arnold: college football insider. Y’all he has the super inside information that Nick Saban was just this close to taking the New York Giants job. It totally doesn’t read like a generic forum post. Nope, not at all. Totally believable.

Things aren’t looking so good for Bobby. Diaco had to demote his offensive coordinator as things are not going well over at UCONN. Look, I’m not saying that he’s going to get fired and that he should come back home to his old job, but I am saying that there is a job opening in the Midwest for a football team looking to take a 3-4 scheme and make their defense great again. Maybe Tom Arnold knows more about this. We shall see.

This is how baseball talk invaded the show. Auburn fans rolled Toomer’s corner in celebration of the Cubs winning the World Series. Holy shit, that’s a thing I just typed and it isn’t April 1.

I never want a beat reporter’s job. As 18 Stripes explores, live tweeting pressers can leave out quite a bit of detail, leaving loads of room for all kinds of hot take interpretation.

The post Friday Roundup: The “Grab Bag” Episode appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Image courtesy @AuburnElvis

Playoff Rankings: Week 6 Results

Each week, the TCB Poll is an aggregate of all our inputs. Scroll down to see individual selections and opinions — this is how we’d like to see the College Football Playoff if we had to narrow the field *right now* to determine a national champion. Images courtesy The Helmet Project.

Rank	Team		Record	Weekly Change
1		Alabama	6-0	—
2		Clemson	6-0	—
3		Washington	6-0	—
4		Michigan	6-0	—

Also receiving votes: Ohio State.

TCB Committee Member Comments

@AuburnElvis

1. Alabama – They dispatched Arkansas fairly easily, but they better not jump out 21-0 against Tennessee this week or it’s all over for the Tide.
2. Michigan – I’m kinda thinking Ohio State will struggle with Wisconsin, so I’m keeping the Wolverines here as my presumptive Big 10 Champion for at least one more week.
3. Clemson – I don’t like Clemson, but as long as they keep winning, I guess I have to keep them here.
4. Washington – Well, it looks like all those “Washington’s going to be good this year” predictions finally came true. Good job, Huskies.

@HawkeyeElvis

Iowa keeps the pig! I hope that’s not the highlight of my season. Hawkeye Elvis Top Four…

1. Alabama – Tide rolls. Vols will be interesting.
2. Ohio State – I think they will steamroll the Badgers as they look forward to the khaki-wearers.
3. Clemson – Shows no sign of Clemsoning anytime soon.
4. Washington – I don’t see an obstacle between them and playoffs.

On deck – Houston, a certain khaki-wearing coached team that I still refuse to acknowledge…..

@IrishElvis

Gonna switch it up a bit this week (and probably going forward) — taking a look at who they’ve played…

1. Clemson. 2-0 vs. top-10 teams. Not seeing too many other teams with that on their resume
2. Alabama. 1-0 vs. top-10, and 2-0 vs. top-30. Any arguments, Volunteers?
3. M******n. 2-0 vs. top-30 competition. I’m shocked they’ve played anyone that difficult.
4. Washington. Their only top-30 opponent was Stanford, but they looked mighty fine that evening.

The post TCB Poll 2016: Week 6 appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Football is a rough sport to analyze through the magic of spreadsheets. With short seasons and smaller sample sizes than a sport like baseball, you truly have to careful in what you pull and how you present the data. Because of this, personally I believe you often have to dive in a bit deeper in the box score and mine that larger sample size to see the bigger picture.

This season, HLS managed to get our hands on a data source that has detail down to the drive. (Note: this is where I thank everyone that’s visited HLS or ordered anything through our Amazon links as well as our wonderful partners because that’s how we funded this treasure trove of information.) This week, I had time to dive back into the stats and do a bit of #SportsMath to see what I could find to supplement our Syracuse preview.

Spoiler alert: when your defense plays like hot garbage, you uncover dumpster fires within tire fires.

“No shit, Tex,” you may say “we knew the defense sucked.”

To that I reply, “You’re a Notre Dame fan. You should know things can always be worse.” And they truly are. I’m pretty sure I made my co-host Shane a little bit ill after letting him in on what I found.

Thankfully, our little show never just focuses on ND alone. This has served as quite the sanity saver this season. Reminders that we are fans of the dumbest and funniest sport ever are always welcome.

Enjoy the show, be sure to use those subscription links over on the sidebar (and this Stitcher link that I’ve still yet to put up there) so you get the show first thing in the morning after we finish editing and recording.

The Roundup

CFB Law & Order got very familiar for Notre Dame fans. Truthfully, this situation is probably familiar to Alabama fans too at this point. However, any story that creates fictional weed suppliers named Brandon Chicken is aces in my book. As of this writing, Saban is still “reviewing” the situation.

Can we leave the damn Toomer’s oaks alone? Something was in the water in Alabama this week. Some jackass lit the toilet paper on one of the new, recently cleared for rolling, transplanted oaks at Auburn on fire.

Neaux, LSU, just neaux. The “eaux” puns have finally gone too far because this reads “OH-OH”:

O no pic.twitter.com/lvRT5o9jLv

— Bunkie Perkins (@BunkiePerkins) September 28, 2016

I wonder if MQ became SOURCES again. FootballScoop is back at it to let us know that LSU will gauge interest in Nick Saban and Urban Meyer. Also, surprisingly money for this new hire won’t be an issue despite the fact that LSU’s funding was in crisis not too long ago. Priorities! (Reference for the section title joke)

The Sharknado of football continues to swirl in Southern Cal. It’s now public that they haven’t been paying off duty cops to secure their games for years.

This is so Aggie it hurts. Three words: Deep. Fired. Helmet. (Enjoy the bonus discussion of being deliciously redneck and blowing up a laptop in the pod.)

I AM SO SORRY THAT I FORGOT TO PUT THIS IN OUR OUTLINE BUT IT MUST BE SEEN. Large college kicker murdered Michigan Return Man.

https://vine.co/v/5vwLVt1uDPb

The post Friday Roundup: The “#SportsMath Will Make You Sick” Episode appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Coach Lou Holtz [Photo: Jonathan Daniel/Allsport]

I was a child of the Lou Holtz years, when Notre Dame was in the hunt for a national title almost every season. That has not been the case at any point since Holtz left.

In this article, I’m going to look at some of the stated “hurdles” and determine if they’re relevant. Then, I’m going to answer: What is a reasonable expectation for Notre Dame football on an annual basis?

Schedule

“We won nine games two years out of the five. I think the difficulty is sustaining that year after year with the schedule that you play. Particularly the early season schedule is difficult.” – Bob Davie, on the day of his firing in 2001.

If you examine the Sagarin strength of schedule (SOS) over the last five years, the information is somewhat telling.

2015

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2014

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2013

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2012

[table “” not found /]

2011

[table “” not found /]

Notre Dame schedules, with the exception of last year, have fallen outside of the top 20 during the past five years. This would seem to indicate that a difficult schedule has not and should not be a barrier to being competitive, simply because the schedules have not been that difficult in relation to other top programs.

Graduation Rate

“But what matters most is excellence. Notre Dame stands for doing things the right way, and in this age of college football factories exhausting players’ eligibility with 50 percent graduation rates, questionable degrees, and long rap sheets, the ND way has never been needed more as a beacon for the rest of the sport.” – Jim Lefebvre

For years, admission standards have been bandied about as an obstacle to Notre Dame competing year in and year out – in that limits who the Irish can actually recruit.

A look at graduation success rate for football players over the last four years seems to indicate schools with top graduation rates do not typically factor into the national championship mix on a year in and year out basis.

2011-12

[table “” not found /]

2012-13

[table “” not found /]

2013-14

[table “” not found /]

2014-15

[table “” not found /]

Recruiting

“So I put those out to you because there are a lot of components that go into the recruiting today. And here at the University of Notre Dame, we clearly have our vision as to the kind of player that we’re going to recruit at the University of Notre Dame.” – Brian Kelly, 2010

Many of the top analysts have suggested that Notre Dame cannot recruit the “top players” on a regular basis as compared to some of the top football powers. While I’m not a fan of looking at recruiting rankings, we can at least look at how 247 Sports has ranked each year’s class to gauge how effective Notre Dame is recruiting as compared to top programs.

2011

[table “” not found /]

2012

[table “” not found /]

2013

[table “” not found /]

2014

[table “” not found /]

A couple of items come to mind here when I examine recruiting. First, a highly rated class doesn’t get you anything. I could throw a list of people together in my head who were high profile recruits at many schools (including ND) but never really panned out. Secondly, from 2011-2014, Notre Dame posted two top 10 classes – not exactly indicative of school that can “no longer recruit.”

Conclusion

Simon Chun

So what can we expect or what should we expect from Notre Dame football teams in light of this? Are there obstacles or hurdles for Notre Dame?

In the way of scheduling and recruiting I might argue they are well-overplayed. Notre Dame continues to recruit in the top 20 consistently. The schedule argument, as I mentioned earlier, also seems exaggerated. The graduation rate is there and is a real figure. I do agree with the anecdotal aspects that suggest there are certain players that Notre Dame cannot and will not recruit. They should be applauded for this.

Given this information, I think it is likely we will not see Notre Dame in the hunt year and year out.

Now before I get blown up here and in the other forms of social media, that does not mean they will not be in the hunt regularly. In 2012, they went to the national championship game. In 2013, they took a step back. I would argue only injuries and some sloppy play (2014) and a couple of soul-crushing road losses (2015) kept them out of the hunt in those years.

Add it up and you get a team that has been on the cusp of breaking through a couple of times in the last four years. That is what I believe is a likely norm in this age of Notre Dame football. As such, a reasonable expectation should be Notre Dame teams that frequently play in big bowl games and make a runs at the title, combined with the occasional team that experiences a drop off year. This will become the norm given Notre Dame and the cyclical nature of modern college football.

The post What Should The Yearly Expectations Be For ND Football? appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

…okay, so it’ll be tomorrow on a football field on the west coast…

Episode XII

THE IRISH AWAKEN

It is a dark time for all Notre Dame fans.

The Fighting Irish have lost three games in a row for the second time in the Brian Kelly era. Turnovers, missed field goals, botched holds, and injuries have plagued the Irish.

With their backs against the wall, the Irish travel west to face their long-time rivals, SOUTHERN CAL, and to achieve the clean sweep of rivals in a painful 2014 season.

Despite his turnover issues, EVERETT GOLSON, reflects on his training and looks to lead Notre Dame to victory in the Coliseum once again to restore peace and tranquility under the Dome…

…by the way…

Michigan STILL hasn’t scored…

The Roundup

Want an actual scroll of the above? Head here, copy the above text, and laugh. Originally, I wanted to embed this, but I couldn’t get it to work.

Aggies, we feel your pain. Texas A&M got pretty hosed on an offsides no-call that turned into a game-ending interception as Aggie QB, Kyle Allen, did what you are supposed to do when you draw someone offsides: snap it quick and toss a prayer up and see if you get lucky. To a lesser extent, we feel you too Cal.

I really hope this story has a good ending. An Ohio State player has been missing since Wednesday and based on the limited information, it definitely doesn’t sound great.

If you’d like to take a dive into the culture of Texas A&M, this longform piece on Bonfire (yes, it must be capitalized), is a must read.

The Iron Bowl is easily the biggest game this week. If you need a history lesson, ESPN has a pretty cool infographic on the affair.

R.I.P., Jim Butz. The press box employee was instrumental in the creation of the now iconic Fighting Irish logo created.

A lot has been made about the sideline conversations between Golson and Kelly. This piece had some pretty good insight on how the two handle their business.

And now your moment of Nix… STAR WARS TRAILER IS OUT AND ALL CAPS ARE TOTALLY NEEDED!

The Booze

We did last year and I see no reason to change it. As a reminder:

If you motherfuckers truly <3 me and miss the site, YOU WILL be drinking TROJAN BLOOD on Saturday. Don’t think- JUST FUCKING DRINK IT #FUSC

— Joshua Vowles (@TheSubwayDomer) October 15, 2013

Yeah, Subway is out of retirement, but we ain’t stopping now. Mountain Dew Code Red + Gin (Tanqueray is what Subway, the creator of the drink, recommends).

As a further reminder, this happened last year as well:

My fiancee right now: "DRINK THE BLOOD, BABY, DRINK THE BLOOD" cc: @TheSubwayDomer

— Ryan Ritter (@ndtex) October 20, 2013

I married a good one, y’all.

The post Friday Roundup: “The Irish Awaken” Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

We don’t know what exactly the 12-person committee will use as criteria for which teams make the final cut. We don’t know if they’ll take injuries or suspensions into account. We don’t know how they’ll weigh conference championships. We don’t know if they’ll show compassion for a team that lost in the final seconds of an epic top five show down because of a controversial offensive penalty that negated a game-winning score. We don’t know anything, really.

Several committee members have noted that they watch upwards of fifty teams a week. Not just the top teams, but also the teams that the top teams play, specifically the ones that will be considered common denominators. I imagine, and this is just me, that teams that cross conference lines such as Clemson, South Carolina, or Arizona State will be major influences even if they don’t have realistic chances to make the Football Four themselves.

I broke down the top teams into three tiers. The top tier are the current “guarantees” if there are such a thing at this point. The second tier will be the teams fighting for the last one or two spots. The third tier are the teams that need some help outside of their own schedule.

Tier One: 

• Mississippi State – The widely-considered top team in the nation has by far the best resume. They have wins against three top ten teams (at the time of kickoff) and they’ve been one of the most consistent and dominant teams in all of their wins (their only single-digit winning margin was on the road against LSU).
• Ole Miss – While they don’t have as many top wins as their magnolia state brethren, they did knock of Alabama, skyrocketing them into the top three. the rest of their wins have been just as dominant as Mississippi State, but not against quite as high of talent thus far.
• Florida State – If the Seminoles were a Friends episode, it would be called “The one that didn’t die”. This team has found ways to eke out wins when it shouldn’t have. If they do fall at some point, the voters will likely make them pay for it.

For now, these teams are in. Unfortunately for the two Mississippi teams, the Egg Bowl could be the first of potentially four straight playoff games for the winner. If both teams win out, the Egg Bowl decides the SEC West winner, who will then have to play in the SEC Championship, then into the NCAA playoffs. Only one of these teams will get in. I feel like any team that gets a loss in the last two weeks of the season will be toast. That’s just how voters remember things.

Florida State will likely win out. The ACC is terrible and FSU has already faced the hardest teams on their schedule. So barring some incredible upset that would likely make the entire nation celebrate, we have to assume the Seminoles are going to be in the playoffs.

Tier Two:

I saved this one for last because it is the deepest and in the most flux. If you’re a Notre Dame fan, these are the teams we need to watch closely if we hope to get back into the top four. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the top tier, but likely two out of those three teams are going to be in the playoffs. That leaves just two more spots open. At this point, it’s going to be hard to see an outcome where two SEC teams don’t go. The SEC West is just too incredibly deep, and as we’ll see shortly we can’t count out Georgia out of the East either.

• Alabama – Of all the one-loss teams in the SEC West, Bama has the best shot of stealing the conference. A win over Mississippi State throws the entire nation into a mess, let alone the division.
• Auburn – Similar to Alabama, Auburn has plenty of chances to win out against big teams and still take the division. No matter what, the Iron Bowl likely decides which team gets eliminated.
• Oregon – The Ducks’ big problem was originally that Michigan State looked like not such a big win, but now it’s looking a lot better. Now their problem lies in the schedule. With no big games remaining until the conference championship, it’s hard for Oregon to impress anyone on the committee.
• Notre Dame – Some people are saying Notre Dame’s loss almost helped the Irish as much as a win at least in perception of if they belong with the big boys. Notre Dame cannot win a conference championship, but their schedule allows them not to have to. A couple of “big enough” games are still ahead of them, as well.
• Michigan State – Right now, they’re a little on the outside looking in, but defeating Ohio State in two weeks will put them squarely into the mix. After that, the path smooths out and even the B1G Championship will be very gettable.
• Georgia – If there’s any team that has been overlooked this year, it might be Georgia. With one more big game against Auburn coming up and a potential trip to the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs are far from dead this season.

The biggest question out of this tier will be what happens in the SEC West. There’s a scenario where Ole Miss beats Alabama who beats Mississippi State who beats Ole Miss. I don’t even know who wins the division at that point, let alone gets into the playoffs. Or how about Auburn beats Ole Miss who beats Mississippi State who already beat Auburn? Could there be a four-way tie? Only time will tell and it’ll be huge for the outside one-loss teams hoping to get a chance at the championship.

Tier Three:

• TCU/Kansas State/Baylor – These teams must win out. The Big 12 just isn’t strong enough right now to guarantee a one-loss champion getting into the playoffs. Kansas State may have the best chance as they close the season with games against not only TCU and Baylor but also West Virginia. Running that table would go a long way to bumping their resume.
• Nebraska/Ohio State – Both of these teams will need to win the B1G championship to have a shot. That chance is greater for OSU as they have a huge game against Michigan State looming.
• Arizona State/Arizona – The loss to UCLA is killing them right now as the Bruins have dropped in the rankings. Still, with wins over USC, Stanford and a game against Notre Dame later on, it could give them a chance to steal the PAC 12 South and play Oregon as a play-in game. Arizona has a huge win against Oregon, but will have to beat ASU to get a rematch against the Ducks. It’ll be hard to beat that team twice.

It’s going to be hard for any of these teams to make the playoffs, there’s just too much up in the air at this point on their schedules. The Big 12 teams have beaten each other up just enough to knock them all out. The B1G teams need Michigan State to drop out. The Arizona teams have mediocre losses on their record already, have to play each other still, and THEN still have to likely play Oregon. Are these teams out of it? Not even close. But it’s a steep hill in front of them.

My gut tells me that if the remaining season is on short supply of surprises, the last spot will come down to Notre Dame and Michigan State. We’re going to see exactly what the committee weighs heavily and which things aren’t as important. Of all the seasons these two teams could have picked to not play each other, it looks like it happened when both teams needed the game the most. One could be a conference champion whose only loss is on the road to a top five team. One could be a cross-country conqueror whose only loss is on the road to a top five team.

It’s hard to compare Notre Dame to other teams around the country. There’s no conference championship to play for, which could end up being the death blow to a 2014 championship run. While Notre Dame sits at 11-1 after a win on the road to USC, the other teams will all be playing nationally televised all-or-nothing games. Will it be Georgia versus Mississippi State? Whoever is in this game, the winner is in. Florida State will likely win the ACC with an unblemished record. They’re in.

That leaves two spots. There is a strong chance that two SEC teams finishes the season at 11-1 and DOESN’T make the championship game, despite having defeated at least one of the teams in that game. How can you punish a team from the SEC West with an 11-1 record? You can’t. They’re in, too.

That leaves one final spot.

Notre Dame. Michigan State. Oregon.

Who gets in? Does the head-to-head victory for Oregon over Michigan State knock out the Spartans? Oregon and Michigan State will likely both win conferences, does that end the season for the Irish? Notre Dame will have played the hardest schedule. Does that cook the Ducks?

Even more importantly, will any of that even matter?

If college football has taught us anything, it’s that there will always be more surprises. We know there will be teams in the top ten that will receive their first or second loss this season. That’s a guarantee. But we also know that a couple more will likely be upset. Who takes that fall? Will Notre Dame lose to Arizona State? Does Oregon stumble against Stanford? Does Kentucky surprise a big name? Does LSU? Can Michigan ruin the Spartans season?

Anything can and will happen in the NCAA. We’ve already had a week where five top ten teams lost. If only one top ten team loses a week from now until December, we will have a drastically different idea of what a playoff team might look like. The key? Don’t be one of those teams that lose. If Notre Dame can avoid that fate, they’ll be getting good news about January.

The post Notre Dame Still Squarely in Playoff Picture appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Image courtesy @AuburnElvis

Playoff Rankings: Week 6

Each week, the T.C.B. Poll is an aggregate of all our inputs. Scroll down to see individual selections and opinions.

Also receiving votes: Ole Miss.

TCB Committee Member Comments

@TheLSUElvis

One of the King’s best gospel songs was “Crying in the Chapel” and there were quite a few football fans crying in their chapels of football glory on Saturday after a very exciting weekend…as for the LSU Elvis’ top 4 only Florida State remains and three new teams to add to the list. Should I include one ACC team and 3 teams from the SEC West???? Well these teams would all have to beat each other just once and have everyone else in the country lose as well. Will this happen? I don’t know but crazier things have happened in college football. Here is my top 4 for the week.

1. Florida State – Sorry for moving you down a spot in my previous poll. You keep winning and I will keep putting you at Number one. In two weeks when my fellow Elvis Brother and the Irish play y’all will be quite the game.
2. Mississippi State – they play host to Auburn and I think Dak Prescott is starting to remind a lot of people of Cam Newton – who won the Heisman and brought his team home a national title.
3. Auburn – so the number 2 and 3 teams in the country beat my beloved LSU Tigers. One of these two will lose Saturday but the dream to still play in football playoff is not over. Slight edge to Mississippi State for two reasons – Cowbells and the birthplace of the King
4. Ole Miss – Well Hotty Toddy – I never thought I would have the Rebel black bears in my top 4 but they have done it. They still have Auburn, Mississippi State and travel to LSU…..you get through that schedule with one loss or fewer then you can stay in the top 4 my friends.

@AuburnElvis

1. Auburn. It looks like their O-line reshuffling issues have normalized, and that spells trouble for opposing defenses. Auburn is the only team in America that could get through Auburn’s schedule.
2. Mississippi State. Dang, these guys look good. If Auburn didn’t exist, I think THIS would be your eventual national champion.
3. Baylor. I don’t actually think Baylor will win the Big 12, but I’m putting them here as a placeholder for either Oklahoma, or more likely… Kansas State.
4. Notre- Ha, just kidding. FSU. I don’t think the Seminoles are one of the top four teams, or even that they’ll go undefeated. I just think Florida State is so lucky they’ll probably fall backwards into the playoffs on the final week after 3 teams ahead of them lose.

@HawkeyeElvis

My Hawkeyes figured out a genius way not to lose this past Saturday: don’t play. As you might imagine, a big ‘ol hunka-hunka burnin’ shake-up in the Hawkeye Elvis Top 4:

1. Florida State – Welcome back ‘Noles. Oh and that home game against the Irish is looking pretty big now.
2. Auburn – Can these Tigers survive their trip to the Magnolia State?
3. Mississippi State – Welcome to the TCB Top 4, Bulldogs. Let’s see if you can stay here more than a week.
4. Baylor? – Sure why not. Their lackluster win over Texas aside who goes here? I can’t put a third team from the same division (let alone conference here). A spot will be open after this week anyway.

@IrishElvis

Oh, October College Football, how I have missed you. There’s blood everywhere in the TCB Top 4, but somehow I managed to carry over two teams from last week into my Top 4, mostly because I dropped Alabama some weeks back knowing the Lane Kiffin Effect would eventually strike.

1. Florida State – C’mon back up to the top spot, defending champs! It’s entirely possible that no one is dominant this season.
2. Auburn – Do we crown Auburn Elvis as “King Creole” because of his head-to-head victory over LSU Elvis last week?
3. Ole Miss – Tough road game in College Station next week…let’s see if Dr. Bo is licensed to practice in the state of Texas.
4. Baylor – Atrocious strength of schedule, and they host TCU after the Purple Frogs take down Oklahoma. I think they get it done this week, but they won’t last long in this slot. I think Auburn handles the Cowbells so I can’t very well put MSU here…

Astute fans may notice a certain team is curiously absent from my top 4, and they will remain a Devil In Disguise unless/until they find a way to win in Tallahassee on October 18. After that…well, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

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