• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Her Loyal Sons

A Notre Dame Football Blog

  • Home
  • Discord
  • ND Bowl Tie-Ins
  • Merch
  • Extra Life
  • Navigation Menu: Social Icons

    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • YouTube
    • RSS
Home > Notre Dame Football > What Should The Yearly Expectations Be For ND Football?

(Featured photo: John Mersitis/Landov)

What Should The Yearly Expectations Be For ND Football?

April 18, 2016 by Jimmy Grant

Coach Lou Holtz [Photo: Jonathan Daniel/Allsport]

Coach Lou Holtz [Photo: Jonathan Daniel/Allsport]

What is good enough for Notre Dame?

I was a child of the Lou Holtz years, when Notre Dame was in the hunt for a national title almost every season. That has not been the case at any point since Holtz left.

In this article, I’m going to look at some of the stated “hurdles” and determine if they’re relevant. Then, I’m going to answer: What is a reasonable expectation for Notre Dame football on an annual basis?

Schedule

“We won nine games two years out of the five. I think the difficulty is sustaining that year after year with the schedule that you play. Particularly the early season schedule is difficult.” – Bob Davie, on the day of his firing in 2001.

If you examine the Sagarin strength of schedule (SOS) over the last five years, the information is somewhat telling.

2015

[table “” not found /]

2014

[table “” not found /]

2013

[table “” not found /]

2012

[table “” not found /]

2011

[table “” not found /]

Notre Dame schedules, with the exception of last year, have fallen outside of the top 20 during the past five years. This would seem to indicate that a difficult schedule has not and should not be a barrier to being competitive, simply because the schedules have not been that difficult in relation to other top programs.

Graduation Rate

HLS EFS CSC Graduate Celebrating“But what matters most is excellence. Notre Dame stands for doing things the right way, and in this age of college football factories exhausting players’ eligibility with 50 percent graduation rates, questionable degrees, and long rap sheets, the ND way has never been needed more as a beacon for the rest of the sport.” – Jim Lefebvre

For years, admission standards have been bandied about as an obstacle to Notre Dame competing year in and year out – in that limits who the Irish can actually recruit.

A look at graduation success rate for football players over the last four years seems to indicate schools with top graduation rates do not typically factor into the national championship mix on a year in and year out basis.

2011-12

[table “” not found /]

2012-13

[table “” not found /]

2013-14

[table “” not found /]

2014-15

[table “” not found /]

Recruiting

“So I put those out to you because there are a lot of components that go into the recruiting today. And here at the University of Notre Dame, we clearly have our vision as to the kind of player that we’re going to recruit at the University of Notre Dame.” – Brian Kelly, 2010

Many of the top analysts have suggested that Notre Dame cannot recruit the “top players” on a regular basis as compared to some of the top football powers. While I’m not a fan of looking at recruiting rankings, we can at least look at how 247 Sports has ranked each year’s class to gauge how effective Notre Dame is recruiting as compared to top programs.

2011

[table “” not found /]

2012

[table “” not found /]

2013

[table “” not found /]

2014

[table “” not found /]

A couple of items come to mind here when I examine recruiting. First, a highly rated class doesn’t get you anything. I could throw a list of people together in my head who were high profile recruits at many schools (including ND) but never really panned out. Secondly, from 2011-2014, Notre Dame posted two top 10 classes – not exactly indicative of school that can “no longer recruit.”

Conclusion

Simon Chun

Simon Chun

So what can we expect or what should we expect from Notre Dame football teams in light of this? Are there obstacles or hurdles for Notre Dame?

In the way of scheduling and recruiting I might argue they are well-overplayed. Notre Dame continues to recruit in the top 20 consistently. The schedule argument, as I mentioned earlier, also seems exaggerated. The graduation rate is there and is a real figure. I do agree with the anecdotal aspects that suggest there are certain players that Notre Dame cannot and will not recruit. They should be applauded for this.

Given this information, I think it is likely we will not see Notre Dame in the hunt year and year out.

Now before I get blown up here and in the other forms of social media, that does not mean they will not be in the hunt regularly. In 2012, they went to the national championship game. In 2013, they took a step back. I would argue only injuries and some sloppy play (2014) and a couple of soul-crushing road losses (2015) kept them out of the hunt in those years.

Add it up and you get a team that has been on the cusp of breaking through a couple of times in the last four years. That is what I believe is a likely norm in this age of Notre Dame football. As such, a reasonable expectation should be Notre Dame teams that frequently play in big bowl games and make a runs at the title, combined with the occasional team that experiences a drop off year. This will become the norm given Notre Dame and the cyclical nature of modern college football.

  • Author
  • Recent Posts
Jimmy Grant
Subway Alumni by birth - 1973.Former D3 Football Player, amateur writer (heavy emphasis on amateur), and football historian.Has been having a torrid love affair with Notre Dame since birth.This peaks during the months of August to January, and is grudgingly tolerated by my wife and children.Follow Jimmy @IrishJimmy22
Latest posts by Jimmy Grant (see all)
  • Restoring Faith in College Athletics - April 3, 2018
  • Notre Dame and the Citrus Bowl…Heck Yeah! - December 6, 2017
  • Looking for Answers in Another November Meltdown - November 27, 2017

Share this:

  • Tweet
  • Email

Filed Under: Notre Dame Football Tagged With: Alabama, Auburn, Bob Davie, Boston College, Brian Kelly, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, Graduation Success Rate, Lou Holtz, Miami, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Recruiting, Rice, Stanford, TCU, Texas A&M, UTSA

About Jimmy Grant

Subway Alumni by birth - 1973. Former D3 Football Player, amateur writer (heavy emphasis on amateur), and football historian. Has been having a torrid love affair with Notre Dame since birth. This peaks during the months of August to January, and is grudgingly tolerated by my wife and children. Follow Jimmy @IrishJimmy22

Previous Post: « Notre Dame Football Highlights: 2016 Blue Gold Game
Next Post: Fashion Review: The Shirt 2016 »

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Mike

    April 18, 2016 at 10:20 am

    Maybe the question should be what is the NCAA going to do to make it a more even playing field. Why not institute a graduation rate around 70% for all schools or you lose scholarships for the next two years, They are for the sake of argument supposed to be student/athletes, not a farm system.

    • IrishJimmy

      April 18, 2016 at 12:35 pm

      I agree. That is a really interesting ideal.

  2. TERRY

    April 18, 2016 at 12:26 pm

    I remember the 1988 team – they were not really expected to be that special, but they were. They got the good breaks, injuries were ‘reasonable’, and when they beat Miami – well anyone who was around for that will remember that. They believed in themselves and it was one of those special years when everything went well.

    They’ve got tons of talent on this team, but I want to see some swagger. Not arrogance, but attitude.

  3. Steve

    April 18, 2016 at 1:32 pm

    make it a more even playing field? Why do we always need liberals trying tochange everything? Why not make the schools recruit the type of players that represent their student body? Why is the football player average ACT at a 23 and the student body over a 30?

    • IrishJimmy

      April 18, 2016 at 1:56 pm

      All good questions. Currently the average ACT score is a 33. Average athlete score (most recent I could find) 24. It is an interesting balance, do you bend standard to keep a high profile program and revenue machine in place? Tough question.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Podcast

Click here to support the pod!

Recent Posts

The Cowboy Beebop "See You Space Cowboy" ending title frame with the HLS logo.

Epilogue

HLS Podcast Finale

Manti Te'o Faux Cover

The Final Fiesta: Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State NCAA ’14 Sim

Penultimate Picks Pod

2021 Bowl Picks: Week 2

Copyright © 2023 · Foodie Pro & The Genesis Framework · Login

loading Cancel
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.