Notre Dame defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder yells from the sideline during the Notre Dame Blue-Gold Spring football game on Saturday, April 16, 2016, at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend. South Bend Tribune Photo/ROBERT FRANKLIN

VanGorder was hired in 2014, following the departure of Bob Diaco to become Connecticut’s head coach. The criticism of Diaco was his “bend but don’t break” approach made his defenses appear somewhat vanilla or “boring.” So what? They were fundamentally sound, rarely beat themselves and were always in the top half of the nation in total defense.

Much enthusiasm ensued when the Irish brought VanGorder and his NFL pedigree to South Bend. Many media types ballyhooed Van Gorder as an NFL mind that would immediately upgrade the Irish to an SEC style of defense. The media types quickly sold the fans on his various “exotic blitz” packages.

This brought great excitement to the masses.

Apparently no one saw or really seemed concerned with the uneven career of VanGorder prior to his arrival at Notre Dame. For starters: In 34 years as a coach prior to coming to Notre Dame, VanGorder made 18 different stops with various levels of success. Not much was made of VanGorder’s stint as the defensive coordinator at Auburn, which was his college stop previous to coming to Notre Dame. During that season the Tigers went 3-9 and VanGorder’s defense was ranked 81^st in the nation.

Notre Dame defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder on the sideline during the Notre Dame-Michigan State game. (Photo: SBT Robert Franklin)

VanGorder’s defenses at Notre Dame were inconsistent, undisciplined at times, and often gave up points and big plays in bunches. Trouble was brewing early in VanGorder’s first year. After a very good start, the Irish were scorched for big plays as they stumbled to an 8-5 finish. This included giving up 43 against North Carolina and Northwestern and being lit up for 55 versus Arizona State. We may have gotten some fool’s gold at the end of the year when they played reasonably well vs. LSU in the Music City Bowl.

At that point, we were told that year two of “Uncle Rico” would be better. It was, slightly, as the Irish improved from 69^th in total defense to 45^th. Though the numbers improved and the team went 10-3, they still surrendered a late lead at Stanford and were just beaten down vs. Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. Additionally, this was a defense that featured Jaylon Smith and Sheldon Day, two of the better players in recent memory at Notre Dame.

Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly looks back at an official during the Notre Dame-Texas NCAA college football game on Sunday, Sept. 4, 2016, at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. South Bend Tribune Photo/ROBERT FRANKLIN

Despite the experience and high level talent, VanGorder’s defense was nowhere close to a dominating unit. Enter 2016, the Irish are ranked 109^th in the nation, play with zero sense of urgency, and seemingly cannot tackle. Duke was the final straw. But, a fair question is: How did we even get to this point?

In my opinion, the hiring of VanGorder seemed to be a panic move from the get-go, like a gambler in Las Vegas back at the ATM chasing the money he lost. Perhaps Kelly gambled that he needed to change to grab the ring that has eluded Notre Dame since 1988? With the offenses that he features at Notre Dame and the changing landscape of college football, he needs discipline over pedigree and consistency over resume.

Kelly is at his crossroads at Notre Dame. His next hire will likely help define his own tenure at Notre Dame.

The post I Never Liked The VanGorder Hire appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

We had only two, that’s right, two people pick Arizona over Notre Dame straight up last week and one of those was Biscuit who continues to kick all of our asses from his August predictions. And the notes we had for the game? Oh good God, they aren’t any better. Let’s get to those before the standings and see if we have any bonus points to make up for it (spoiler alert: don’t hold your breath).

By the way, this week’s entry is here.

A Tommy Rees led team beat ASU last year. ASU lost by 1,000 to UCLA and it took a miracle against USC to have their #9 ranking today. ASU is top #25 good, but definitely not top #10. This is ND’s “signature win” gift wrapped with a giant Lexus bow on it. I just hope the Irish don’t shit the bed. – @NDClock

You wished in one hand and Notre Dame shat in the other. Guess which one filled up first.

We will go down by a field goal early, but will regain control and not have to sweat this one out too much. We pressure ASU into two picks, while Golson throws one. There are 27 mentions of how our defense will perform without our former walk on defensive quarterback . That’s right 27. – @rhyno1515

You almost had the 27 thing right…had 27 been 34 and you said “unanswered Arizona State points that our defense will give up”. And the turnover prediction has all the sadness. All of it.

As your new supreme ruler of picks, I declare an ND decisive victory. Also, I declare a burrito a sandwich. – @IrishMoonJ

ND comes out strong (just like every other week, duh) and takes a commanding lead early on. Lots of Jaylon finger wags and BVG fist pumps. ASU finally plays the part of #9 midway through the 3rd quarter and a Golson interception at the WORST POSSIBLE TIME results in angry tweets and heavy drinking. The defense remembers to make tackles in the waning minutes of the game and Golson leads 2 masterful drives to cap a comfortable 12 point win. – @tyvanvoorhees

Well, to your credit there was a turnover by Golson in the third at a terrible time, but man the rest of the prediction is just so far off, I don’t think I can give the point.

I’m sorry, this game has made me bitter and I’m hording the bonus points because I’m angry.

There was a moment at FedEx Field, about midway during the fourth quarter, when Jaylon Smith decided that he, personally, had had just about enough of Navy’s crap, and from then on he was an absolute menace, torpedoing the Mids’ option attack from inside the backfield. One of the heretofore unconsidered silver linings to Joeusedtobeawalkon Schmidt’s season-ending injury is that it now frees up #9 to make even more plays.

This will happen in Tempe.

Roughly halfway during the fourth quarter, Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly will see #9 in his usual spot as an outside linebacker. But when he goes to ID the mike, he’ll see that it’s . . . Jaylon Smith. He’ll read a blitz coming from the other side from . . . Jaylon Smith. Panicking, he’ll audible into a running play, drop back to hand the ball off only to find, ready to receive the handoff . . . Jaylon Smith. Sun Devil coach Todd Graham, frightened, will call to the booth to find out what the hell is going on only to find that instead of third-year offensive coordinator Mike Norvell, he’s reached . . . Jaylon Smith.

In the ESPN booth, Sean McDonough, impressed, will say “Jaylon Smith is everywhere, isn’t that right?” and turn to see not Chris Spielman, but . . . Jaylon Smith.

“That’s right, Sean. I’m everywhere . . .

Everywhere . . .

E V E R Y W H E R E . . . ”

The game actually ends on a forfeit as a psychologically broken Sun Devil team ponders whether they, and by extension all of us, are all just figments of Jaylon Smith’s imagination. (Short answer: yes.)

#JaylonSmithExistentialismCrisisTrain – @irishmikecomedy

There is nothing right about this comment, but it’s so beautiful and, if you think about it, aren’t we all on a #JaylonSmithExistentialismCrisisTrain? The lone bonus point this week is yours. Treasure it.

And don’t f*&king fumble it.

Standings

As I said above, only one lone bonus point this week. We were all terrible and Biscuit’s dancing leprechauns are back on top, tied with Moons.

HLS Predictions

This can’t go any worse than last week…right?

Animal Picks

Okay, so I’m convinced my cat, Gulliver, is picking against the spread because he’s now 6-3. Yes, I know the bit was picking straight up winners, but when he’s inverse ND there and more correct than our collective record against the spread…yeah, I’m going to start listening to the cat because that’s logical and shut up and stop judging me.

Anyways, the pick:

And I’m not picking against it (see above).

The post Predictions: Hopefully More Accurate Than a South Bend Meterologist appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Seriously, ND isn’t in a bad spot. Listen to Mr. Day.

No, this will not be a post that will excuse Notre Dame for a rather terrible performance on the road against Arizona State. No team should turn the ball over five times and expect to win against a ranked team. Period.

Beyond the turnovers, Arizona State put a hell of a game together, consistently putting pressure on Golson, notching seven sacks and giving him happy feet the whole game.

In the first half, Arizona State ran at a totally different speed than the Irish defense that looked gassed playing on short fields with no rest. Perhaps the injuries and suspensions that the Irish have faced in those crucial positions (KeiVarae Russel and Cody Riggs) finally caught up to the Irish and were yet another mitigating factor in this disaster.

While the Irish did manage to put a comeback threat together, once they got within a single possession of Arizona State, the heat was turned back on in the desert and Arizona State pulled away. Playoff dreams were dashed. Any angst over how the committee underrated the Irish and their strength of schedule proved a fruitless exercise.

While this loss stings, and make no mistake I’m incredibly bummed by the entire affair, all is not lost. The fact of the matter is that an Irish team, young and ravished by injuries, still has a chance to finish 10-2. Such a finish would be a record well beyond what most ND fans expected at the beginning of the season. Winning out, and winning a big bowl game against a quality opponent to build momentum for 2015, is now the goal.

Now is not the time to jump off the ledge and go into full-blown “bench Golson” panic. While he has eclipsed the amount of turnovers that Tommy Rees had last season, he has also eclipsed the total number of TDs that Rees had all season and there are still more games left (Rees had 27 TDs, Golson has 24 passing TDs and 7 rushing TDs for a total of 31).

Yes, this game was terrible for Golson. It’s easily the worst game of his Notre Dame career. However, Notre Dame simply does not pull out some of the wins that they have this season without Golson. Everett giveth and Everett taketh away.

There is simply no guarantee that subbing in Malik Zaire automatically cures all the Golson turnover issues. There is this perception with many football fans that plugging in the backup quarterback will somehow magically do this. That just simply isn’t the case, especially when you consider that this is a quarterback who has only lost three games in his entire career.

If Golson continues down this path and appears to regress even further, sure, let’s have that discussion. Hell, I’m perfectly fine having it this offseason even if Golson runs a clean sheet the rest of the way. Pulling the plug before the season is over simply seems like folly.

One of the main reasons that Golson had those turnovers is because of the pressure that Arizona State placed on him or by making plays at the line. If the roles are reversed, I guarantee we don’t sit here saying Taylor Kelly is terrible, but rather praising the our defensive line for transcendent play. Trying to place this loss solely on Golson negates what Arizona State accomplished on the field.

Also, let’s not forget that Golson is also a large part of why Notre Dame even managed to make this game in the second half.

This loss sucks, but there can be a middle-ground between “championship contender” and “out of the top 25” which, again, is where many (myself included) thought the Irish would land preseason. And here we are.

Now is not the time to jump of the ledge or burn it all down.

The post Notre Dame Isn’t a Playoff Caliber Team and That’s Just Fine appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

No, this isn’t because I’ve hit a creative wall. I’m not mailing it in because the audio version of this post debuts on the radio this evening. It certainly isn’t for a lack of caring either.

It’s because the main thing consuming my mind is just simply winning this game. After all, I’ve preached patience for the past couple of weeks in regards to the playoff rankings. The hell-raising arguments can start with a defeat of the Sun Devils.

So, yes, I have no jokes. Instead, my mind is full of visions of Brian VanGorder’s defense putting pressure on whoever is taking snaps for Arizona State whether Taylor Kelly or Mike Berovici, the apparent Achilles’ heel to the potent Arizona State offense. Even with VanGorder being in his comfort zone of getting a QB out of theirs, I think about how the Irish secondary will match up against WR stud Jaelan Strong.

And what of the injury to Joe Schmidt (by the way, did you hear he’s a walk-on?!)? Certainly Nyles Morgan is a physical upgrade, but will the “defensive QB” role prove to much for anyone to fill? Or will this be a breakout game in which we see the linebacker combination of Nyles Morgan and Jaylon Smith give Irish fans a glimpse into an incredible future?

Of course I can’t get the offense out of my head. Folston has a chance to go three consecutive games with 100 rushing yards (and let’s not forget, that mark is damn near four games with his 98 rushing yard performance against North Carolina). Golson has a chance to continue the dark horse Heisman buzz after his ND record 6 TD game.

That’s what currently resides in my mind. Jokes will come later. For now, beat the Sun Devils.

The Roundup

At least one of the Marooned 5 has been returned to us. Rejoice, y’all!

University of Notre Dame senior safety Eilar Hardy has been cleared by
the NCAA to participate in competition.

— Michael Bertsch (@NDsidBertschy) November 7, 2014

This place was reserved for a Jameis Winston point shaving joke. However, the original source of that story seems…well, rather sketchy to say the least. However, Winston still keeps his heel status mostly in thanks this week to his lawyer who wants Winston’s hearing delayed, a request made after he made the alleged victim’s name public (link removes any mention of alleged victim’s name).

Remember when those “Bob Stoops to ND” rumors were a thing? Your turn, Michigan!

I’m not even sure what’s going on in Aggieland anymore. Newly suspended quarterback, Kenny Hill added another strange page to his saga. This drama now stars Sean Salisbury whom claims that he was retained by Hill’s family to coach and mentor the young QB. A source later denied this and Salisbury went on his radio show to say “nuh uh, you totally did”. I think College Station is longing for the days of a “Johnny Football partying in Vegas” photo.

Ole Miss’ AD is mad. He sent a strongly worded letter to an Auburn newspaper for using a photo of Laquon Treadwell’s terrible injury in their story. Also happening this week, trolling Mississippi State fans on Twitter:

. @Therealbrutius The real question is…..do you want to meet face to face? pic.twitter.com/HZaHd3C9nD

— Ross Bjork (@RossBjorkAD) November 4, 2014

And now your moment of Nix… Now with 100% more Taylor Swift wearing Notre Dame gear.

The Booze

To humor myself, I Googled “Arizona Tea Cocktails” and low and behold, there is such a thing as an Arizona Stinger featuring two shots of vodka mixed with the readily available beverage. I also forgot that the Arizona Beverage Company owns the Arnold Palmer brand, meaning you can also easily roll with a John Daly: a mixture of vodka, lemonade and iced tea.

Now, the above probably works well as a refreshing drink for anyone enjoying the 80-degree Arizona weather; however, for the rest of us dealing with colder weather I want to make a suggestion that makes a very welcome return: BOURBON. ALL OF IT!

The post Friday Roundup: The “Devils Running Through My Head” Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Sound familiar?

So it’s time for representatives from NDNation, UHND.com, The Fighting Irish Blog, and the godfather of the IBG, The Subway Domer, to put Navy to bed and take a look at what’s ahead. Let’s get to it.

My question: Based on how the rankings this week, do you feel any differently about a too-close-for comfort win against Navy or, for that matter, playing Navy to begin with?

Answers will be linked as they go live:

NDNation

Fighting Irish Blog

UHND.com

The Subway Domer

(Frank Vitovitch, UHND.com) Notre Dame has not been strong the week following Navy under Brian Kelly and at the end of the Charlie Weis Era. Why have the Irish struggled the following week and what can Brian Kelly and his staff do to prevent a similar outcome this weekend against the #9 ranked Sun Devils?

I think this trend is a little overblown. Firstly, the end of the Charlie Weis era had a lot more problems than having let downs post Navy. As far as BK era struggles/losses, we have to release that this team is totally different from any other iteration of Irish football than we’ve seen before, 2012 included.

So really, in my mind, this is a matter of a correlation isn’t causation. ND will need to do the same things that they always need to do to win a football game and this week is no different.

(Aaron Horvath, Fighting Irish Blog) With Joe Schmidt out for the foreseeable future, here is a random question. Who is the most indispensable student-athlete on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball? Why?

Everett Golson and it isn’t even close. While I’m sure Zaire could step in and do a good job, I don’t think he would be anywhere near the level that Golson is at right now (and Golson is still getting better). This season, Irish success has been completely dependent on Golson’s play. I can’t imagine that the Irish would still be in the playoff hunt without him.

Now, on the defensive side, I’d go with Sheldon Day. He has been a machine this season on the defensive line and it seems like he lives behind the line of scrimmage. It’s been a truly incredible sight to witness all season. Without his reliable pressure, the defense wouldn’t be performing to the level that it has been. It all starts up front.

(Mike Coffey, NDNation) If ND wins out, do you believe they’ll get a fair shot at a playoff berth?  Why or why not?

At this point, I’ve seen no evidence that Notre Dame won’t get a fair shake from the committee. Now, whether or not things will fall that way for the Irish is still yet to be seen. There is a very real possibility that only Arizona State will be the lone top 25 win for the Irish and that’s something the committee clearly values.

It sucks, but the Irish have fallen victims to their opponents being uncharacteristically horrible. Despite that, I still see a path for a one-loss ND team to make the playoff as there is still a lot of football left to be played and a lot of losing left to be done. Let’s remember that in 2012, we were all concerned that an undefeated Irish would get hosed and everything worked out nicely before the Southern Cal game.

(The Subway Domer) With some bad officiating and some head scratching poll results, Notre Dame is sitting at #10 in a season that has seen a wide amount of injuries and suspensions for the Irish. Brian Kelly has played his part with an incredible amount of calmness. So, When is BK just going to snap? If you don’t think he will, sell me on Stoic BK.

I don’t think Kelly will ever “snap” per se. He’s too smart for that. The guy is a true politician and he knows how to handle things.

Kelly knows that ND really doesn’t have a strong argument right now due to the lack of top 25 wins; however, he is starting to plant the seeds in touting ND’s scheduling habits. It’s purposeful, he knows how to create a soundbite. He knows his “glorified byes” line is going to get a lot of play in the media.

So with that seed planted, if ND wins, look for BK to start turning the heat up weekly. If ND finishes 11-1, BK will start the Irish campaigning in earnest to keep Notre Dame in the minds of the committee and the media while everyone is playing their conference championships.

Honestly, this is one of the things I love about Kelly. He is so incredibly calculating in the quotes and answers he gives to questions like this. I almost want this whole situation to play out and be tough just to watch a BK play master politician because he is so damned good at it.

The post Irish Blogger Gathering: Devil Went Down to Tempe appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Via @CFBPlayof

I mentioned on Monday that I would write a rebuttal to Bayou’s hypothesis that playing Navy close would cost us playoff positioning. Thankfully, the College Football Playoff Committee saved me from loads of writing by making the argument for me by keeping the Fighting Irish ranked at #10.

As I said during the ND Fan Radio Navy post game show, I felt that the narrow win against Navy would mean about as much to the committee as the blowout win against Rice did: nothing.

Last week, I put forward my own hypothesis that the two biggest factors the committee used in ranking teams were the number of losses and the amount of quality wins against the top 25. The committee didn’t appear to care about margin of victory, the quality of opponent faced, or how “good” a loss was unless they were trying to break a tie between two teams.

And that logic once again held this week. With that in mind, I’ve managed to pull out a few more nuggets of knowledge from this week’s rankings. I have updated the spreadsheet from last week and added a new tab for this weeks rankings and a breakdown of the top 25, their opponents, and all their wins and losses (and included the two teams dropped out this week as a bonus!).

No Team That Won Dropped in the Rankings

If you take one thing away from this post, it should be this point. If a team in the top 25 won they either rose in the rankings or they didn’t move. The six teams that dropped in the rankings all lost.

Often times, pollsters seem to consider some wins as “bad” and thus punish a team for winning a football game. That has never really made much sense to me and I’m glad to see the committee bucking that trend. Doubly so because the committee clearly used a similar logic for a “good” loss, a judgment call that certainly affected Notre Dame’s initial ranking.

The message from the committee is quite clear: win your games (unless you have a laughable schedule like Marshall, in which case, sorry, please try again).

Margin of Victory Doesn’t Matter Except When It Does

Notre Dame, nor any other team like Auburn or TCU, were punished for winning a close game. Likewise, we have also seen that huge blowout wins (Alabama over Texas A&M) or blowout loses (Arizona State losing to UCLA) don’t really seem to make a difference in the rankings. Despite that, committee chair, Jeff Long, had this to say about Notre Dame and Arizona State:

Hmm. Long: ASU, ND have common opponent in Stanford. ASU moved ahead because of more convincing win.

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) November 5, 2014

So perhaps, more accurately, we should say that MOV only matters in a tie-breaker type discussion.

This logic though is somewhat head-scratching if you apply the same logic to a Notre Dame/Michigan State comparison and their common opponent, Michigan. I suppose the only logic there though is that Michigan State had the quality win so they initially put Sparty over ND. Since Michigan State didn’t lose this week, the committee didn’t want to then drop them down a spot.

So really, it appears the question the committee was trying to answer here was just how far should they allow Arizona State to rise and a debate arose between either #9 or #10, leading to the MOV comparison with Notre Dame. But hey, this works great for the Irish as not only do they have a chance for a quality win, but a win against a team ranked above them, meaning that a potential Arizona State loss will hopefully keep them well within the top 25.

Is the SEC Still Awesome?

I’ll be interested to see this week’s update to the theory. Signs may still point to yes. In each loss grouping, an SEC team sits a top of each pack–save for one. There is one lone three loss team in the top 25, West Virginia, hailing from the Big XII.

Currently, each top SEC team is benefiting from the circular logic that committee uses in terms of quality wins, but, as a said last week, at least the committee is consistent in their logic. Further, both SEC teams in the top 25 took significant drops, including Ole Miss whose heartbreaking loss to #3 Auburn, due to a freak injury no less, received no mercy from the committee.

In my mind, the bias is still there, but is much more tolerable. These rankings paint the SEC as the top conference in college football, which is hard to argue. However, that doesn’t give an SEC team any luxury to not be punished quite heavily for a loss.

In fact, I dare say this could lead to a possible nightmare scenario. There does exist a potential doomsday possibility that the SEC emerges with zero one-loss teams. Will the committee change their logic then or will they remain consistent and, I can’t believe I’m saying this, actually shut the SEC out of the playoff picture?

Notre Dame Can Join the Playoff Debate in Earnest After This Saturday

That is, if the Irish win.

Without any quality wins on their resume, any debate about how strong the ND schedule should have been or how it is still stronger than other teams that play FCS teams, is pointless. All other teams above us still have at least one quality win and five of the teams in the top ten have two quality wins.

A win against Arizona State changes all of that. With a top 25 win, the Irish and Brian Kelly can start making debates and politicking in earnest. With two games within the top ten (#6 TCU/#7 Kansas State & #9 Arizona State/#10 Notre Dame), another top ten team, #5 Alabama, playing #16 LSU, and #8 Michigan State taking on #14 Ohio State, the Irish have a huge opportunity to rise up the rankings.

The path to the playoff is still narrow, but it’s there.

The post Notre Dame Remains #10; What We Learned from the College Football Playoff Committee appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Molly Moran and I return for a new episode of HLS TV. The title is dedicated to the lose of Joe Schmidt. As Molly is the self-proclaimed leader of the Joe Schmidt Fan Club, the loss of Schmidt for the season has hit HLS TV hard.

We talk about Joe and what his injury means for the future of the Irish defense as well as Notre Dame’s tilt against Navy. We also discuss what the win means for the Irish going forward, discuss the upcoming game against Arizona State, and do our usual MVPs for the game.

You can find the full video and audio embedded below. Enjoy!

Download this episode (right click and save)

The post HLS TV (Episode 10): Say It Ain’t So, Joe! appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

We don’t know what exactly the 12-person committee will use as criteria for which teams make the final cut. We don’t know if they’ll take injuries or suspensions into account. We don’t know how they’ll weigh conference championships. We don’t know if they’ll show compassion for a team that lost in the final seconds of an epic top five show down because of a controversial offensive penalty that negated a game-winning score. We don’t know anything, really.

Several committee members have noted that they watch upwards of fifty teams a week. Not just the top teams, but also the teams that the top teams play, specifically the ones that will be considered common denominators. I imagine, and this is just me, that teams that cross conference lines such as Clemson, South Carolina, or Arizona State will be major influences even if they don’t have realistic chances to make the Football Four themselves.

I broke down the top teams into three tiers. The top tier are the current “guarantees” if there are such a thing at this point. The second tier will be the teams fighting for the last one or two spots. The third tier are the teams that need some help outside of their own schedule.

Tier One: 

• Mississippi State – The widely-considered top team in the nation has by far the best resume. They have wins against three top ten teams (at the time of kickoff) and they’ve been one of the most consistent and dominant teams in all of their wins (their only single-digit winning margin was on the road against LSU).
• Ole Miss – While they don’t have as many top wins as their magnolia state brethren, they did knock of Alabama, skyrocketing them into the top three. the rest of their wins have been just as dominant as Mississippi State, but not against quite as high of talent thus far.
• Florida State – If the Seminoles were a Friends episode, it would be called “The one that didn’t die”. This team has found ways to eke out wins when it shouldn’t have. If they do fall at some point, the voters will likely make them pay for it.

For now, these teams are in. Unfortunately for the two Mississippi teams, the Egg Bowl could be the first of potentially four straight playoff games for the winner. If both teams win out, the Egg Bowl decides the SEC West winner, who will then have to play in the SEC Championship, then into the NCAA playoffs. Only one of these teams will get in. I feel like any team that gets a loss in the last two weeks of the season will be toast. That’s just how voters remember things.

Florida State will likely win out. The ACC is terrible and FSU has already faced the hardest teams on their schedule. So barring some incredible upset that would likely make the entire nation celebrate, we have to assume the Seminoles are going to be in the playoffs.

Tier Two:

I saved this one for last because it is the deepest and in the most flux. If you’re a Notre Dame fan, these are the teams we need to watch closely if we hope to get back into the top four. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the top tier, but likely two out of those three teams are going to be in the playoffs. That leaves just two more spots open. At this point, it’s going to be hard to see an outcome where two SEC teams don’t go. The SEC West is just too incredibly deep, and as we’ll see shortly we can’t count out Georgia out of the East either.

• Alabama – Of all the one-loss teams in the SEC West, Bama has the best shot of stealing the conference. A win over Mississippi State throws the entire nation into a mess, let alone the division.
• Auburn – Similar to Alabama, Auburn has plenty of chances to win out against big teams and still take the division. No matter what, the Iron Bowl likely decides which team gets eliminated.
• Oregon – The Ducks’ big problem was originally that Michigan State looked like not such a big win, but now it’s looking a lot better. Now their problem lies in the schedule. With no big games remaining until the conference championship, it’s hard for Oregon to impress anyone on the committee.
• Notre Dame – Some people are saying Notre Dame’s loss almost helped the Irish as much as a win at least in perception of if they belong with the big boys. Notre Dame cannot win a conference championship, but their schedule allows them not to have to. A couple of “big enough” games are still ahead of them, as well.
• Michigan State – Right now, they’re a little on the outside looking in, but defeating Ohio State in two weeks will put them squarely into the mix. After that, the path smooths out and even the B1G Championship will be very gettable.
• Georgia – If there’s any team that has been overlooked this year, it might be Georgia. With one more big game against Auburn coming up and a potential trip to the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs are far from dead this season.

The biggest question out of this tier will be what happens in the SEC West. There’s a scenario where Ole Miss beats Alabama who beats Mississippi State who beats Ole Miss. I don’t even know who wins the division at that point, let alone gets into the playoffs. Or how about Auburn beats Ole Miss who beats Mississippi State who already beat Auburn? Could there be a four-way tie? Only time will tell and it’ll be huge for the outside one-loss teams hoping to get a chance at the championship.

Tier Three:

• TCU/Kansas State/Baylor – These teams must win out. The Big 12 just isn’t strong enough right now to guarantee a one-loss champion getting into the playoffs. Kansas State may have the best chance as they close the season with games against not only TCU and Baylor but also West Virginia. Running that table would go a long way to bumping their resume.
• Nebraska/Ohio State – Both of these teams will need to win the B1G championship to have a shot. That chance is greater for OSU as they have a huge game against Michigan State looming.
• Arizona State/Arizona – The loss to UCLA is killing them right now as the Bruins have dropped in the rankings. Still, with wins over USC, Stanford and a game against Notre Dame later on, it could give them a chance to steal the PAC 12 South and play Oregon as a play-in game. Arizona has a huge win against Oregon, but will have to beat ASU to get a rematch against the Ducks. It’ll be hard to beat that team twice.

It’s going to be hard for any of these teams to make the playoffs, there’s just too much up in the air at this point on their schedules. The Big 12 teams have beaten each other up just enough to knock them all out. The B1G teams need Michigan State to drop out. The Arizona teams have mediocre losses on their record already, have to play each other still, and THEN still have to likely play Oregon. Are these teams out of it? Not even close. But it’s a steep hill in front of them.

My gut tells me that if the remaining season is on short supply of surprises, the last spot will come down to Notre Dame and Michigan State. We’re going to see exactly what the committee weighs heavily and which things aren’t as important. Of all the seasons these two teams could have picked to not play each other, it looks like it happened when both teams needed the game the most. One could be a conference champion whose only loss is on the road to a top five team. One could be a cross-country conqueror whose only loss is on the road to a top five team.

It’s hard to compare Notre Dame to other teams around the country. There’s no conference championship to play for, which could end up being the death blow to a 2014 championship run. While Notre Dame sits at 11-1 after a win on the road to USC, the other teams will all be playing nationally televised all-or-nothing games. Will it be Georgia versus Mississippi State? Whoever is in this game, the winner is in. Florida State will likely win the ACC with an unblemished record. They’re in.

That leaves two spots. There is a strong chance that two SEC teams finishes the season at 11-1 and DOESN’T make the championship game, despite having defeated at least one of the teams in that game. How can you punish a team from the SEC West with an 11-1 record? You can’t. They’re in, too.

That leaves one final spot.

Notre Dame. Michigan State. Oregon.

Who gets in? Does the head-to-head victory for Oregon over Michigan State knock out the Spartans? Oregon and Michigan State will likely both win conferences, does that end the season for the Irish? Notre Dame will have played the hardest schedule. Does that cook the Ducks?

Even more importantly, will any of that even matter?

If college football has taught us anything, it’s that there will always be more surprises. We know there will be teams in the top ten that will receive their first or second loss this season. That’s a guarantee. But we also know that a couple more will likely be upset. Who takes that fall? Will Notre Dame lose to Arizona State? Does Oregon stumble against Stanford? Does Kentucky surprise a big name? Does LSU? Can Michigan ruin the Spartans season?

Anything can and will happen in the NCAA. We’ve already had a week where five top ten teams lost. If only one top ten team loses a week from now until December, we will have a drastically different idea of what a playoff team might look like. The key? Don’t be one of those teams that lose. If Notre Dame can avoid that fate, they’ll be getting good news about January.

The post Notre Dame Still Squarely in Playoff Picture appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Golson to Brown
Golson to Koyack

It only took two TDs for Notre Dame to top Stanford. Brown’s TD allowed us all to breathe going into the half and Koyack’s catch, on a 4th and 11 no less, sent us into jubilation.

Turnovers

Golson’s Fumble
Golson’s INT

Golson struggled once again in protecting that ball. The fumble was once again a result of him holding the ball waaaaaay too far out from his body. The INT was a result of Golson trying to force a play that wasn’t there.

The good news? Golson learned his lesson, at least with fumbling, on his 33-yard run:

Screencap via @SupermanTDJesus

There was no way in hell he was going to lose the ball again. Thank you, Golson.

Botched Holds

Hunter Smith on FG Attempt #1
Hunter Smith on FG Attempt #2

I have never written about #99 here at HLS and I never should when your one job is to hold the football for Brindza. You could almost excuse the first botch as the ran was coming down pretty hard. The second one though? In his own head.

Thankfully, Hunter discovered the wonder of gloves, incredible devices that help you catch and hold a ball, and allowed Brindza to get to attempt one FG without craziness. Third time’s a charm!

Instances of Shaw whining like a baby.

2012: The Phantom Whistle
2014: The Band Playing Music

We all thought there was no way Shaw could ever top complaining about his whole team hearing a whistle that didn’t exist, but lo and behold, he got into the ears of the (terrible) Pac 12 ref crew. His issue was that the band played a little bit too long, so ND got a warning and Stanford basically got a free timeout.

Much like his phantom whistle complaint, the band issue accomplished nothing but allowing us to hate the guy more. Also, the band got the last laugh:

Via SBNation with a h/t to our friends at One Foot Down

THE DRUM MAJOR HAS BETTER HANDS THAN TY MONTGOMERY!

Gigantic Upsets

Arizona def #2 Oregon 31-24
#11 Ole Miss def #3 Alabama 23-17

We should have known this entire week of college football was going to be insane when Oregon fell to Arizona on Thursday night. There were certainly more upsets than the ones listed above (#4 OU, #6 Texas A&M, #8 UCLA,#16 USC, #17 Wisconsin, and #18 BYU), but Oregon and Alabama were by far the biggest shocks of the week.

If you had an undefeated record, you were in serious danger. Florida State had to be thanking their lucky stars they were playing Wake Forest. Somehow, Notre Dame joined the Seminoles in the select group of six undefeated teams still standing.

The lesson learned here? If Katy Perry picks against you, be afraid. BE VERY AFRAID:

/dead pic.twitter.com/pzaIz9cAVw

— Isaac (@WorldofIsaac) October 4, 2014

Rival Losses

Rutgers def Michigan 26-24
Arizona State def #16 Southern Cal 38-34

Michigan continued their downward spiral by failing to beat yet another Power 5 opponent. This time, it was well-established B1G powerhouse newcomer Rutgers. I’m sure when Michigan saw that they would welcome Rutgers and Maryland to the B1G, they weren’t aware that they’d be the welcome mat.

Southern Cal, however, probably had the more satisfying upset because, let’s be honest, we don’t expect Michigan to win anymore at this point. The Trojans came into this game without giving up a single passing TD. They surrendered 5 in this game with the final one occurring because of the worst Hail Mary defense that I have ever seen.

Via @cjzero

Thumbs on a Happy Guy

#DORK pic.twitter.com/coFPPMPk09

— HLS_SupermanTDJesus (@SupermanTDJesus) October 4, 2014

The post CFB Week 6: A Tale of Two… appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

David Shaw: not on USC’s sideline. Josh Shaw: also not on USC’s sideline.

Who To Watch

USC at Stanford (Sat 3:30pm ET, ABC)

Week 2 doesn’t have much to offer, and your Saturday primetime is already booked with Notre Dame vs. Michigan, so I’ll recommend a matchup of two future ND opponents. Out west on The Farm, see Steve Sarkisian in his first true road test against David Shaw’s Cardinal.

Strength-of-Schedule Rankings

Jeff Sagarin doesn’t issue a preseason strength-of-schedule ranking, so I’ve used Phil Steele’s 2014 preseason rank for this week.

Upcoming Opponents

• Central Michigan at Purdue (Sat 12:00pm ET)
• Navy at Temple (Sat 1:00pm ET)
• Northern Illinois at Northwestern (Sat 3:30pm ET)
• Murray State at Louisville (Sat 7:00pm ET)
• Arizona State at New Mexico (Sat 7:00pm ET, CBS Sports Network)
• The Citadel at Florida State (Sat 7:30pm ET)
• San Diego State at North Carolina (Sat 8:00pm ET, ESPN News)

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