Let’s face it, the Quarterback Debate is going to steal the show for the next few months, and quite possibly throughout the season too. And because Tommy appears in court for sentencing today, I thought it would be the perfect time to play a little game relating to the quarterbacks. So have a paper and pen ready (trust me, this is great food for thought for all NDFB fans).
To rebuild or not to rebuild, that is one of the questions that looms large over the 2012 Irish team. Or, maybe not completely rebuild, but at the very least, transition. Many people question doubt that Tommy will ever be good enough to win Notre Dame a National Championship, and just as many are hesitant to believe that he can even lead us to the BCS. These fans would much rather sit Tommy and start grooming one of the other guys for the future, even if it costs us a few games in the present, because the ultimate goal of any Notre Dame fan is the national title.
However, there is also quite a flip side to this argument, because so much college football success hinges on effective recruiting. Is it better to win, say, 9-10 games under Rees this year, get a fair amount of positive publicity, and have a shot at the BCS, OR to take some knocks, win 6-8 games (meaning no apparent improvement visible strictly in the W/L column) with one of the other guys and have the quarterback of the future get ready? If you are a recruit, which team would you want to go play for? (Note: this is a nearly impossible question, because everyone is different, and the minds of high school recruits are often complex, irrational enigmas)
Also, another thing to remember is that many coaches realize that they have an obligation to “win-now” for all of the upperclassmen on any given team, because they have put in the time and work and effort too. So while starting young players of the future is often appealing to the fans, coaches don’t want to get hit with the label that they play favorites, especially in the sense that they ostracize whole groups of their own team (see: Kelly calls out seniors — remember that stink?).
Okay, so here is the actual fun part. Much has been made of the absolutely brutal 2012 football schedule that Notre Dame Plays. I have it listed here below:
2012 Notre Dame Football Schedule (Date/Opponent/Location)
9/1/12 — Navy — Dublin, Ireland
9/8/12 — Purdue — Notre Dame, IN
9/15/12 — MSU — East Lansing, MI
9/22/12 — Michigan — Notre Dame, IN
10/6/12 — Miami — Chicago, IL
10/13/12 — Stanford — Notre Dame, IN
10/20/12 — BYU — Notre Dame, IN
10/27/12 — Oklahoma — Norman, OK
11/3/12 — Pittsburgh — Notre Dame, IN
11/10/12 — Boston College — Chestnut Hill, MA
11/17/12 — Wake Forest — Notre Dame, IN
11/24/12 — USC — Los Angeles, CA
Now take out your pen and paper, and make four columns to the right of your schedule. Each of these columns represents the team under a different quarterback (Rees, Hendrix, Golson, Kiel obviously). Now honestly go down the schedule and check which games you think Notre Dame would win or lose with each guy at the helm, keeping in mind how that player is right now (because expecting or anticipating improvement for any of the guys throughout the year REALLY makes this extra speculative. Also, if you’re feeling extra predictive today, throw a confidence value next to your picks for further analysis).
Now, I’d imagine that you have a fairly wide range of outcomes depending on which kid is handed the keys the program, which makes sense. The point of this “test” is, at what point is the best balance of improving for the future available, keeping in mind that you need to sell your program as on-the-rise to recruits as well. For me, I don’t think a 7-5 team that seasons Hendrix/Golson/Kiel is better than a 10-2 one that leaves the young three guys ungroomed. I think Notre Dame stands a lot to benefit as a program by making the BCS this year, even it isn’t the championship, and EVEN if we wouldn’t ever win a championship with someone like Rees (which I also disagree with, I think he CAN and WILL be the guy. As long as his sentencing doesn’t throw a wrench into the mix later today).
But this isn’t supposed to be my typical Rees love-fest, it is just meant for everyone to take a fair look at the entire schedule under each quarterback, and see if they have glaringly differently expectations for any of the guys. And if you do have different expectations, which do you find acceptable or more promising looking toward the future?
Have fun guys.
Love It/Hate it? Let me know in the comments below or Tweet me @GrantlandX
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Bayou Irish
Holy shi*! Is that our schedule??!!! What the heck were you thinking, Jack?!?! I just spit out my Community Coffee and nearly choked on the fourteenth beignet of the morning. All I can think of are the words a young Kuwaiti once asked me as I lead my squad across the tractless desert, “what the fahqmadinijad?” How many games did you have us losing last year? You didn’t have USF, did you? You didn’t have us beating Michigan like that did y.. what? We lost? Motherfu**er. But you get my point. We ALMOST beat USC. We fumbled the damn ball. We turned the ball over. A TON. We lost games we had no business losing. Tommy gave us one great series (Pitt) and otherwise he was either a competent field general or a long-tailed monkey in a room full of rocking chairs. You know my position and it only got more crystalized in the BG game: we need EGol. Or Hendo. But if you want my picks, if we turn the ball over (Tommy), we lose to MSU, UM, USC and OK. If we don’t, three of those games are Ws. I simply don’t get the fascination with Tommy — he’s as one dimensional as Latvian Orthodox iconography from the 1200’s. Golson forces the LBs to consider him. Golson can throw the ball a mile. I’d rather lose 4 games with Golson under center, if that gets us some highlight reel moments — wouldn’t it be nice to see the Irish on Sports Center’s Top Ten for a forty yard scramble instead of a 50 yard pick 6 against us?
NDtex
Community Coffee has decaf right?
Also, mmmmmmmmmm beignets….
JohnF
I know we’re all down on Tommy, but people don’t usually get sentenced until AFTER they plead guilty/are convicted of something.
Twibby
If the choice was actually win 10 games with the Reesman or win 7 with one of the other QBs, I would choose Tommy without hesitating. I just happen to disagree with you and think Tommy is a 7-win QB at best with this schedule.
You’re right, it is about winning now. To do that, though, we need someone else under center.
PAK
Totally agree with Twibby. GrantlandX trots out a very ridiculous looking strawman here. OF COURSE we would all prefer a 10 win team QB’d by Tommy Rees to a 7 win team QB’d by someone else. But the reality of the situation is that Rees has given zero evidence that he could win more than 8 games against any ND schedule, much less this year’s.
I think we win just as many games with Hendrix or Golson at QB as we do with Rees. When we win games this year it will be on the strength of our defense and running game. Heck, an inexperienced QB might mean MORE wins due to encouraging BK to run more behind our offensive line.
NDtex
I keep trying to fill in Tommy’s column, but my marks keep getting kicked around.
Brian
You might not have meant for this piece to be another one of your Tommy Rees love-fests but it ended up being exactly that. Tommy’s ceiling has been reached. He’s a competent back-up quarterback, that’s it. The premise that switching quarterbacks is equivalent to rebuilding, even if it’s just partial rebuilding, is absurd. Kelly’s offense is built for a certain type of QB and Tommy is not that. …and Kelly has shown, prior to taking the helm here at least, that transitioning quarterbacks is not something that should disrupt his team’s ability to win. I personally think Golson will beat out Hendrix. I also don’t expect less than ten wins.
Ken Kessner
Is Rees entering a plea today?? I thought it was just an arraignment…
NDtex
He did. Pleaded not guilty, will return to court July 17.
denverirish
Since he will likely have to get his legal issues cleared up before BK even addresses what to do from the team standpoint, I do not see how he will be ready by Sept. 1.
Ken Kessner
Bayou
You realize everyone is googling “Latvian Orthodox iconography of the 1200’s.” OK, maybe just me! LOL
irishfanatic
Hell, I gave him a thumbs up just because he was able to reference that in the context of this discussion.
kyndfan
“But this isn’t supposed to be my typical Rees love-fest”- too late
denverirish
I think this can shortened to the following: Would your rather end next season with a win in the Sun Bowl or equivalent and QB who is green but learning or a loss in the Champs Sports Bowl equivalent with Rees?
I, for one, liked last offseason better. Recruits like winning, but they also like excitement about the future. Since I, too, disagree with your premise that Rees can get us to a 10-win season, I think a couple more wins is not greater than the constant debate of whether Rees has reached his ceiling or can actually win one more game next year.
trey
You think Tommy Rees is winning 9-10 games? Wow
Bill Meehan
Please tell me you did not just put the floor on wins w/ Rees at 9 and the ceiling for everyone else at 8.
Aside from the fact that I patently disagree… No, screw that, let’s address it.
I patently disagree.
It’s not that I dislike Tommy, that’s not the point. I’m not saying ND won’t win w/ Tommy.
Not even considering Gunner Kiel because of his youth and lack of time in the system.
I AM saying that GolDrix gives ND an equal or better chance of winning. Winning early, and winning often. I’m saying that the floor on GolDrix is higher than the floor on Tommy, and the ceiling on GolDrix is higher than the ceiling on Tommy. Right Now. And moving forward, those gaps will only widen.
I’ll break it down for you:
– All 3 QB’s offer opportunities for turnovers.
– Tommy locks in on a receiver more tightly than a Mormon couple on their wedding night.
– GolDrix lack the experience in the offense which exposes them to more turnovers by poor decision making.
– Tommy has experience in the system which, but he’s got experience in executing a portion of it to a mediocre standard. He Doesn’t Run. He can’t throw the Deep ball.
– GolDrix however both have the ability to make plays downfield with their arms AND with their legs. Both are a threat.
So when I compare the flaws, they’re similar.
When I look at the capabilities, I just see more room from the others.
Throw in uncertainty over legal issues, and I’m begging you to quit with the love affair. She doesn’t love you, let it go. It pains me to see you put yourself through this.
Grantland-X
No, I’m not putting a floor or ceiling on any of the guys, that’s for each person to decide for themself. However, I think you are lying to yourself plain and simple if you think Tommy doesn’t have a better chance of beating USC on the road, Oklahoma on the road, or Michigan at home (all senior QBs) than Golson or Hendrix. Doesn’t matter how great their potential is, it is just purely false that they are better prepared to handle that than Tommy. So I think if you honestly go through the exercise, Tommy is going to have the highest season potential.
The question that is being posed, however, isn’t simply which QB would win the most games this year, it is who will create the biggest positive for the program moving forward. I think that IF Tommy were to win 9 or more games, we would benefit more than if any of the other guys won 7 or less (Golson and Kiel on my chart). Hendrix is interesting to me because I think he could win 8-10, which balances my premise of both recruiting and winning now. However, I clearly favor Tommy.
fossilman
Why we continue to debate and worry about the Qb situation is baffling to me. That will work itself out. Tommy does give us the best chance of winning now. When we establish the running game behind our massive and experienced line we will own the possesion clock as well as wear the defenses down. Then tommy only has to make a few successful throws and confidence will take over. Remember Rees has a very quick release and is fairly accurate. Get the ball in space to Riddick, Wood and Toma sprinkle a lot of Eifert and ten games is not out of the question. Defense should be a solid advantage for us. My big concern is special teams. If we get any help in this area it will be a very special year in SouthBend.
SanFranIrish
can anyone check to see if grantland x is sleeping with tommy rees? because at this point it’s the only reasonable explanation as to why grantland won’t get off his high horse and admit that rees will not be the starter for the irish september 3rd. he knows it, i know it, we all know it. jesus
SanFranIrish
let me quickly reply that i meant september 1st before grantland pops in with a snarky, “well of course tommy rees won’t be starting september 3rd…”
to think tommy rees can win 10 games next year… this is why everyone hates us