Sacrifices have to be made to protect the ND family. A playoff by may have been left at the scene of the crime, but Jack executed any thought that the Irish would need to flock to a conference to preserve title hopes.

In doing so, Shane and I see all kinds of potential for opportunity, incredible matchups, and even potentially chaos not just on the field, but off as well once conference TV contracts come to an end.

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The post HLS Podcast: Leave the Bye, Take the Independence appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Enjoy this brief episode and, when you hear my child crying and screaming in the background, don’t worry. The tragedy was spilling his granola oats. He’ll live.

#HAILGAMBLOR

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The post HLS Picks: 2020 Championship Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Sure, there are a couple of major national things to hit, but the meat of this episode is talking about Notre Dame falling to Alabama and The Narrative surrounding the program. Just like BK in the post-game presser, we got a bit spicy on this one.

There will be one final pod to put a bow on the end of this crazy, COVID-wrecked season. But for now, come commiserate the end of the Notre Dame season with us.

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The post HLS Recap: Talkin’ ‘Bout The Narrative™ appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Come join me in this journey. Grab your blue and gold glasses. Forget what the sim did.

Notre Dame can beat Bama.

The Narrative Is Punditry Bullshit

Stop giving this big game blowout garbage the time of day, y’all. Look, I get it, and we’re going to keep hearing about it until we win one. College football is full of this kind of petty shit (see: Clemsoning, now no longer a thing). It’s why we love it.

So look, if someone wants to give us reminders of the lumps we took against Bama in 2012 (yes, I know it was 2013, work with me here), fine. The one guy still hanging around from that team is our offensive coordinator. 2012 means nothing.

The recent Fiesta Bowl venture against Ohio State in the 2015 season also has no one around (and saw the Irish’s best defender, Jaylon Smith, go down early) on 2020’s roster.

Even 2018 against Clemson matters very little. Kyren Williams, Michael Mayer, and Kyle Hamilton weren’t on campus. The entire WR corps looks different. The defense added depth. In all honesty, Ian Book is the one constant and he’s absolutely improved since then.

The 2020 ACC Championship Game is really the only worthy data point, but that’s only if people can accept Notre Dame has beaten Clemson and North Carolina and decide not to throw a bunch of asterisks in there for whatever reason.

However, the bottom line is that, if everyone wants to come in talking about their skills against Notre Dame in big games…

SEC Defenses Aren’t That Great!

Big bad defense league finally went full Big XII. Offense now runs the conference. Let’s take a look at the F+ defensive ratings (and points scored in parenthesis) for Alabama’s opponents, which combines FEI and SP+:

• Missouri: 91 (38)
• Texas A&M: 29 (52)
• Ole Miss: 111 (63)
• Georgia: 6 (41)
• Tennessee: 28 (48)
• Mississippi State: 41 (41)
• Kentucky: 42 (63)
• Auburn: 45 (42)
• LSU: 68 (55)
• Arkansas: 62 (52)
• Florida: 37 (52)
• Notre Dame: 9 (Hopefully much less)

Bama’s toughest defensive test was against Georgia, in their fourth game, when the Dawgs were still looking for their offensive identity without J.T. Daniels and it cost them, dearly. Texas A&M and Tennessee had similar offensive woes and the scores (52-24 and 48-17) turned out similar for the same reasons.

Oh, and for fun, Alabama’s defense is 11 in F+. The number 1 team? Clemson.

This won’t be the toughest test for Ian Book and company. They just took the best right on the chin. Time to get back up and realize what you’re facing is good, not invincible.

Make no mistake, Alabama’s offense is great (and ranked #1 in F+). But let’s not pretend they went through a murder’s row to put up their massive numbers.

For Fun, Here’s What ND’s Defense Has Done

Yes, Alabama has the top offense in the nation, but here’s a similar ranking (and points given up) look for the Irish:

• Duke 115 (13)
• South Florida 109 (0)
• Florida State 76 (26)
• Louisville 19 (7)
• Pittsburgh 83 (3)
• Georgia Tech 74 (13)
• Clemson 6 (40 – 2OT)
• Boston College 45 (31)
• North Carolina 3 (17)
• Syracuse 122 (21)
• Clemson 6 (43)
• Alabama 1 (Hopefully less)

Yes, Notre Dame hasn’t faced many high-powered offenses, but their defensive performance on the scoreboard definitely reflects that. The only exceptions to this was a letdown performance at BC and a weird, no-students-in-crowd senior day to end the regular season against Syracuse.

The defensive performance against North Carolina on the road has hilariously turned into a sidenote thanks to The Narrative. All Americans Michael Carter and Javonte Williams gained only 85 yards with the Tar Heels held to under 300 yards overall.

So, yeah, the Irish defense is good y’all.

Use the Southern Cal Defensive Gameplan

I know the 2019 season feels like ages ago, but remember that time Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Vaughns strolled into South Bend and combined for 8 receptions and 76 yards? You probably do, but what you may not remember (or chose to forget) is that SC rushed for 171 yards in that game.

And that was all absolutely by design.

Clark Lea knew that SC was dependent on the big strikes. That meant three safeties out and sacrificing box stacking just to make sure they didn’t get beat deep.

Najee Harris is absolutely terrifying, but he’s the poison pill that you have to decide to take. Case in point: the best performance against Harris was Texas A&M who held him to 3.6 yards/carry and 43 total. Harris’ counterpart, Brain Robinson Jr., tallied 60 more.

They got blown out.

What makes Alabama insanely dangerous is Mac Jones and the deep passing game. That’s how you get Mac’s ridiculous 11.4 yards per attempt and 339.9 yards per game.

Bama will score, but they have to earn it. If they bleed time off the clock, so be it, it reduces their number of possessions too. Not only that, with how Notre Dame has played against the run, I would gamble with on less man in the box.

Oh, and having three safeties has another benefit: you can make one a rover of sorts and just go make plays. In other words, let Kyle Hamilton cook.

Throw the Damn Ball (Downfield)

Read this tweet. Burn that heat map into your brain. Remember that Bama’s biggest weakness has been defending passes downfield.

Remove the name and logo from that heat map and you’d be able to create one hell of an easy defensive gameplan against it: safeties up, blitz aggressively, reduce YAC, and stuff run.

Part of what made Notre Dame so successful against Clemson the first time around was going deeper than they usually do. Hit those back-shoulder jump balls and let those huge receivers do their thing.

Believe me, I know ND’s strength is the rushing game, but you absolutely have to stretch the defense out or they will eat your lunch all game long. Venables released this quickly in the ACCCG and went even more insanely aggressive than usual. Book failed to make him pay for it.

Every pass doesn’t need to be a jump-ball bomb, but attempting 20+ yard passes more regularly will loosen Bama up and take pressure of the running game, and yes, even the short passing game.

Burn the Second and Long Run Out of the Call Sheet

It’s the worst damn play in football. Here’s your data. Yes, I know it’s for the NFL and not college football, but guess what, we’re in big boy territory now. Treat it like NFL talent because it is.

Put simply, running on second and long shoots yourself in the foot more often than not. Sure, you can find success, but why do things the hard way? Especially when everyone is going to guess it’s coming:

By the way, check out where Alabama, college football’s best offense is on that chart. Just sayin’!

Now I’m not saying chuck it deep on second and long. That’s incredibly dumb. Ballsy, but dumb. I equate it to being down in the count 0-1 in baseball. You have to get more aggressive in your approach, but you’re not swinging for the fences unless you see a meatball (or in football’s case a huge mismatch).

This is where you deploy the screen game, swing passes, quick timing routes, etc. Sure you may get the same result as a stuffed run, but you aren’t likely to go backwards and you have the benefit of these being passes that are ridiculously hard to pick off.

While yardage and making third down more manageable is the end goal, you also curb defensive aggressiveness. Notre Dame will absolutely have to run to win in this game, but that doesn’t mean Notre Dame will be successful running into a wall.

For the love of Reesus, don’t call a second and long run. Tell Ian he’s not allowed to audible into one either.

Nothing to Lose

At the end of the day, everyone has counted on Notre Dame not just losing, but being blown out. The Narrative, we’ve been repeatedly told, will continue.

Hell, as you heard on the picks pod, that’s my take on this when I take emotion out of it.

The thing is, the people not taking emotion out of it are the players on the field. When there are no expectations, you can remain loose and have the biggest chip on your shoulder.

Everyone in that locker room has confidence they belong. Think back to The Narrative creeping back in early November. Sure, Lawrence was out, but that didn’t stop it. Everyone expected history to repeat itself and then it didn’t.

They’ve been here before. They actually have an advantage of being hit in the mouth. They have a rare opportunity in college football: to get embarrassed and make up for it, rendering the defeat pointless.

Sure, we may remember that we failed to win the ACC in our one and only shot, but ND is now playing for the trophy that we really care about and they came to South Bend to play for.

Prove everyone wrong. Prove my pick wrong (and make me donate money to charity). Prove this post right.

And shove it in everyone’s face.

The post Bust the Narrative: Notre Dame Can Beat Alabama appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

So, we decided to just roll with whatever those rosters and depth charts were. Injuries, as always are completely out. Yes, that means Bama has Waddle.

We weren’t sure what this new and improved version of the sim would bring (save for some crackling audio, sorry about that!), but I think it’s safe to say that your nightmares are all still alive and well in this damned thing.

We’re so sorry, but can’t stop the bit now.

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The post HLS Sim: Notre Dame vs Alabama – CFP Semifinal appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

In fact, the ND pick manages to turn into an explosive $100 Extra Life sidebet to kick of the 2021 campaign that I haven’t even started yet. One of us took Bama and the other took ND. Tune in and fine out the logic behind the split.

(And hang around for the most wheels-off outro I’ve ever done…assuming of course you stayed after the wheels-off cold open to begin with.)

#HAILGAMBLOR

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The post HLS Picks: 2020 New Year’s Six & Others appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Now that I’ve tossed in every possible search keyword that I can think off, I’ll get to the point: major college football ain’t fair.

I mentioned this on the most recent pod, but football at this level is driven by cash. The brand names and football blue bloods deliver cash; however, preservation of said cash flow required a ton of illogical decisions.

With this in mind, the “brightest” college football minds constructed a way to preserve the ever-expanding, but always profitable, bowl system. Members of various bowl committees keep their well-compensated jobs, expense accounts, and funny jackets. Lucrative TV contracts remain as well.

In thanks for not derailing the gravy train, all conference members, and Notre Dame, receive base payouts for agreeing to keep the peace and additional bonuses for making the bigger bowls/playoffs. It’s more Ponzi scheme than postseason.

No other sport works so hard to preserve what Brain Kelly so eloquently (and prematurely–probably should’ve gotten the playoff bid first, oops!) called worshipping at the ashes of tradition. Keep this in mind when you create a smart playoff expansion scenario in your head. The powers-that-be will inevitably pick the dumbest of all possible options because controversy creates cash.

Look no further than this sport’s recent history. The BCS spawned out of a desire to make sure #1 and #2 played each other on the field instead of pollsters crowning a champion. However, because we can’t have pollsters deciding everything, in comes a complex, “unbiased” system of computers that very few people actually understood.

To no surprise, this created undesirable matchups, including an Alabama/LSU rematch, and flat out snubs. Enter the playoff, originally pitched to anyone with a brain as a “plus-one” scenario with the current ranking structure.

Nah, makes too much sense.

Instead, let’s scrap all the bowls and throw a bunch of ADs and other random big names in a room to create one ranking to rule them all. Oh, and have you heard this committee will actually watch football instead of a silly computer spitting out numbers?! What a novel concept!

No one asked for that scenario, and yet, here we are.

Hilariously, the thing that might blow this one up and push college football further down the path of insanity is that Notre Dame had to join a conference during a pandemic. This created a scenario in which they had to have a rematch against Clemson. Any other year, Notre Dame strolls into the playoffs with an undefeated record and people bitching that we didn’t have to play Clemson again. The Irish did, lost, and now a potential rubber-match scenario is in place and people are, to no surprise, now mad that conference membership benefitted Notre Dame.

Irish fans have told you conference memberships are stupid. No one listened. Your conference membership will not save you. Sure, you can try to politick like Jimbo did about your strength of schedule and strength of record because of it, but if you focus only on that, you can create some hilarious outcomes focusing solely on those metrics (sources: SoS, SoR, FPI & SP+, FEI, F+):

• Strength of Schedule: Ohio State out, Aggies in
• Strength of Record: Clemson out, Aggies in
• FPI: No change, unless you want to allow two-loss Georgia in which would bounce ND
• SP+: ND out, Cincy in
• FEI: ND out, BYU in
• F+ (SP+ & FEI combined): ND out, BYU in

What a beautiful mess.

In American sports, playoffs are meant to reduce such mess. They also create wonderful underdog story potential. It’s part of the reason we love March Madness so much. In the end, the cream typically does rise to the top, which is why we’ve seen Bama/Clemson so much and likely will again.

College football however, should be more like European soccer. This idea is far from original, but it makes so much sense and fits too perfectly. For those unware, the various leagues will play their seasons. The champion is simply who is in first place in the standings (similar to how conferences used to do things). The top teams from leagues are then invited to a champions league (oh hey, sounds like NY6/Playoffs) and teams right below that go to a slightly less prestigious league for “postseason” play (like the rest of the bowls!).

However, the reason the above works is because there is also a promotion/relegation element to it. You aren’t even eligible for the big tournaments/leagues if you suck and finish in the bottom two, meaning the following year, you are booted down to a lesser league and have to work your way back up. Forget about recruiting headaches, there is absolutely no way college football blue-bloods sign up for that deal, despite how clearly hilarious and awesome it would be (because, hey, revenue hits!)

Keep all of this in mind when you bemoan how games aren’t “as entertaining”, “don’t matter as much”, or ultimately “isn’t fair” because of the playoff. The system isn’t made for fans. Your enjoyment and concept of fairness pales in comparison to the checks handed out every year.

So, you decided you wanted to be a fan of college football? Welcome to a hell that you somehow enjoy and hate all at the same time.

The post So, You Want to Expand the Playoff appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Notre Dame drops the ball against Clemson. Army, everyone in the group of five, and everyone not a brand name in college football gets screwed by the committee. Fans deciding to chalk up a loss to Alabama weeks before the game is played.

Yeah, it’s all covered. This felt good. Come get your audio therapy.

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The post HLS Recap: Over? Nothing Is Over Until We Decide It Is! appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Come join Eddie and I as we look back at our pre-season futures picks. Come enjoy how wrong we were as well as discovering that I may just have a Madden Curse-like superpower.

Plus, will Eddie and I join the fake bandwagon of Clemson disrespect that lives in Dabo Swiney’s head? Come join us and find out!

#HAILGAMBLOR

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The post HLS Podcast: Back to the Futures Plus National Title Pick appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

However the highlight, in my opinion at least, was absolutely the interviews that I conducted during the HLS tailgate. Jessica Smetana from Sports Illustrated, and former ND O-linemen, and current ESPN personality, Mike Golic Jr. take top billing. However, don’t sleep on an ND fan attending his first game, the HLS OGs, NDEddieMac, and some of my fellow Otters.

Enjoy!

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The post HLS Podcast: Cotton Bowl Recap & HLS Tailgate Interviews appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.