With Signing Day in the rearview mirror, the offseason scab picking can accelerate to greater heights. Perhaps the area of greatest frustration for many looking back on the 2015 season was the continued struggles on the defensive side of the ball. Injuries certainly had a meaningful impact. From Jarron Jones, to KeiVarae Russell, to the way the season ended for Jaylon Smith, it seemed like just about every defensive player had to deal with a substantial health issue. Yet, when juxtaposed with the offense who faced similar health issues and not only survived but actually excelled, the consternation inevitably swung back around to Notre Dame’s Uncle Rico: Brian VanGorder.
There are not many who would lose sleep if BVG lost his job effective yesterday, but I would be surprised to see any actual change this offseason. Given the injuries and Brian Kelly’s long standing relationship with VanGorder, it seems highly likely he’ll be granted at least one more season to prove that his “scheme” can take hold and raise the defense’s performance. This seems like a tall order for VanGorder to accomplish given results to date. For starters, VanGorder loses Jaylon Smith who spent much of the past 2 seasons making up for a lot of other player’s mistakes. He also loses his two best pass rushers in Sheldon Day and Romeo Okwara, Finally, whatever advantage/value added Joe Schmidt was providing pre-snap in lining up players also departs. In sum: VanGorder must find a way to improve a defense that hasn’t been fantastic after losing many of his most important playmakers.
That there’ll likely be a “Debate This” involving VanGorder at some point in the weeks and months to come should come as no surprise, but let me give you Loyal Sons and Daughters an amuse bouche of that debate.
A piece (albeit a minority share) of VanGorder’s issues is that he replaced the much beloved Bob Diaco. While Diaco’s defenses may not have been the most aggressive or exciting, they were pretty effective at accomplishing a healthy bottom line of keeping points off the board. I was curious how Diaco’s first two years as the defensive coordinator (2010-2011) compared to VanGorder’s first two seasons with the Irish. In particular, I didn’t have a strong recollection of how good the offenses were that Diaco faced compared to BVG. So the question I set out to answer was how well did these guys do at keeping points off the board compared to the general level of offense they faced? For each season, I took the full schedule and compared the points opponents scored versus the Irish compared to the season on whole. Let’s look at Bobby D first:
2010 Irish – Diaco
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2011 Irish – Diaco
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Roughly* (*I’ll willingly admit I used simple averages rather than weighted averages which might change some of the final numbers slightly), Diaco’s defenses on average held opponents to 30% fewer points (Defensive Suppression) than those same teams averaged over the course of a season. His “worst” showing was in 2010 versus Navy when he permitted the Midshipmen to score about 17% more points in that game than they had on average throughout the season. In fact, in Diaco’s first two seasons, he faced 12 offenses that for the season averaged 30+ points per game. Only one of those twelve (2011 Michigan) managed to reach or exceed their average point total versus the Irish. In those 26 games, only 3 times did a Diaco defense permit a team to reach or exceed their average point total.
And, here’s where the frustrations with VanGorder are likely to be exacerbated. Let’s look at BVG’s first two years running the same criteria:
2014 Irish – BVG
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2015 Irish – BVG
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On an absolute basis, VanGorder’s defenses have simply given up more points. However, and this surprised me somewhat, he really hasn’t faced a much harsher schedule than Diaco. In fact, in VanGorder’s first two seasons, he’s faced 11 offenses that averaged 30+ points for the season to Diaco’s 12. He also faced no offenses that averaged 40+ points to Diaco’s 3. In 6 of the 11 games versus high powered offenses, BVG’s teams wilted letting that team exceed their already high season points average. BVG also had 7 games in which his defense inflated the opposing team’s points worse than Diaco’s “worst” performance versus Navy. The capper being the 2014 Northwestern game where the Wildcats fell just a field goal short of doubling their season points per game average.
In total, VanGorder’s defenses have allowed the opposing offense to exceed their season points per game average in 11 of 26 contests (42%) in his first two seasons. VanGorder held an opponent to half as many points as their season average on 3 occasions to Diaco’s 6. The drop off from Diaco seasons 1 and 2 to VanGorder seasons 1 and 2 is about as stark as it can get. 2015 was an improved campaign for VanGorder, but still only about half as good as a Diaco campaign.
What may make it even tougher for Irish fans to swallow is that year 3 of the Diaco era was the 2012 campaign during which the Irish had one of the strongest defenses in the country on a points allowed basis. It’s unreasonable to expect VanGorder to make that dramatic an ascension, but anything short of a steep improvement should probably be enough to show BVG the door. Diaco did a lot more with similarly situated talent. The gap between talent and performance cannot remain at its current level if VanGorder wants to stick around.
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lujackcity
I’m sure most will roll their eyes when I say this but I’d be curious to see the comparisons of injuries between those same two seasons. I want to be clear that I am still on the fence about Coach Van Gorder. It just seems like the ND defense has had an unusually high number of injuries the last 2 years. So much so that Coach Kelly and Jack Swarbrick addressed the issue specifically on the Jack Swarbrick Show.
Irishize
ESPN just showed a 30/30 program about the ’85 Chicago Bears. That team was famous for its ” 46 ” defense, maybe the best defense ever. The architect was DC Buddy Ryan. However, as the program shows, the defense had to evolve before it reached its greatness.
The Bears were overwhelmed by the complexity of the defense with its 3″ thick playbook. The members of the defense met and decided that they had to try to simplify the defense. LB Mike Singletary served as the spokesman and had a private meeting with Buddy Ryan to voice their concerns.
The next day, the playbook had been cut in half. Buddy Ryan listened and the rest is history.
BVG has no business being our DC. This is a foolish decision by Kelly based on ” loyalty ” to an old friend.
However, we are stuck with him. He should learn a lesson from Buddy Ryan, at least, and SIMPLY the defense. If, as Max Redfield says, it is easier to learn Mandarin Chinese than BVG’s defense, something is seriously wrong.
Kelly has to read his old friend the riot act, but we know he won’t.
TERRY
simplify
Peter C. Greer
The most telling stat for me that proves BVG can’t even touch the dirt stuck in Diaco’s shoes is much simpler: turnovers created. I don’t have numbers in front of me, but memory is enough to go on to know that, for all the complex blitzes, BVG’s defense just does not force a lot of turnovers. Or at the very least, doesn’t force turnovers at crucial times like Diaco’s seemed to.
Bayou Irish
Hi Peter C. Greer. Thanks for reading and for commenting. Your comment made me go back and look at the stats, BRIEFLY. In his first year, Diaco’s defense had 23 interceptions and fumble-recoveries. In his first year, BVG’s had 23. In his second year, Diaco’s defense had 14 interceptions and fumble-recoveries. In his second year, BVG’s had 14.