After a phenomenal performance against Temple, I took a waaay too early look at Tommy Rees vs. the the field of NCAA quarterbacks. After the first week, Rees ranked 4th in the country in passer rating (yes, a very flawed stat). While he has come down to Earth since then, Tommy is still 13th overall – 3 spots behind Johnny Manziel and 1 spot ahead of Aaron Murray. In total QBR, a much more thorough representation of overall quarterback performance (explained in detail here) Rees comes in at 39th in the country – 1 spot behind AJ McCarron and 2 spots ahead of Tajh Boyd.
In this post, however, we will look at the 2013 Tommy Rees vs. the 2011 Tommy Rees. Of course, it should be remembered that we are only 25% of the way through the regular season. Let’s first take a look at some overall passing statistics.
While Rees’s QBR is significantly improved, he is also on pace to throw for 28 touchdowns with 8 interceptions, compared to the 20/14 he put up in 12 games in 2011 (remember he played in all 13 games but didn’t play the 1st half of USF or the 2nd half of Stanford). What might stick out to me the most, though, is passes completed of 15+ and 25+ yards. Rees is on pace to complete 92 passes of 15+ yards compared to 64 in 2011 and 40 passes of 25+ yards compared to 20 in 2011. We had a lot of concern about Rees’s arm strength coming into the season, but he has helped to alleviate some of those worries early on. Rees’s 4th quarter bomb to DaVaris Daniels against Purdue traveled 48 yards through the air before finding Daniels perfectly in stride.
Breaking down Rees’s numbers by half, you’ll notice a significant improvement in passer rating from 2011 in both the 1st and 2nd halves. Additionally, in both 2013 and 2011 Rees has performed noticeably better in the 2nd half compared to the 1st. One thing I’ve always respected about Rees is the ice running through his veins and his ability to step up under pressure. If the defense continues to struggle, it will be particularly important for Tommy to keep his strong second half performances going.
For an even more granular breakdown, Tommy has been better in every quarter so far this year than he was in 2011. To quickly touch on his completion percentage in 2013 vs. 2011, I believe much of the difference is due to the play calling rather than Rees’s actual accuracy. The Irish are taking far more shots down the field this year, while in 2011 the vast majority of pass attempts were for 10 yards or fewer. Interestingly, the 2nd quarter has been Rees’s kryptonite during his ND career, with his performance being considerably worse than the other 3 quarters.
And finally we take a look at Rees’s performance based on field position. There has been a lot of talk about ND’s struggles in the red zone through 3 games this year. During Rees’s career, however, the red zone has been where he’s prospered, while it’s been at midfield that he has struggled most. While his completion percentage is low in the red zone this year, he’s only had 16 attempts (the bulk of which came against Michigan). It is clear that Rees needs to pick up his performance in enemy territory this year – looking at all of the numbers, this is the first area we’ve really seen a drop-off compared to 2011. Maybe more important, though, is improving play between the 40s to give the Irish more chances at putting points on the board.
- Chicks Dig the Long Ball: Irish Receivers ’13 - October 23, 2013
- Breaking Down the Run/Pass Balance - September 26, 2013
- 3 Questions for MSU - September 19, 2013
david
Of course, the lower completion percentage has to do where Tommy has placed the ball. And, apparently, the receivers hands are the wrong place.
donofredondo
A historical fact about ND football (and academics) is always seeking excellence..as a hs student was overwhelmed by ND and in shock when the reality hit home about the honor of being a Leahy’s Lad.. the association from Bertelli on the Master’s last season in ’53. If one had the honor to be punished on Cartier Field, the single most lesson was the removal of fear and the willingness to go full speed… as Coach Rockne’s article “Football in the 40’s” outlined the need for a clean ballet outfit and zero runs in the hose – also being proper for tea breaks… watching #11 go sideways for a 1 yd run was amusing… he fears contact and the PU defense really was in shock as they did not assign a D player to #11 and they paid the price. Hendrix has to be better and has shown ability to run and be hit
Brian McKeown (@BrianJMcKeown)
What the hell?
NDtex
How I shot web?
Jim
No doubt Tommy Rees seems to have improved quite a bit over the course of his ND career. His performance would be great if we still had a semblance of last years defense.
Tommy seems like a great young man and will probably be an excellent coach someday. Unfortunately, in today’s game, Rees’s lack of mobility combined with a mediocre defense, will lead to 8-9 wins with 3-4 losses and something less than the BCS bowl this team should be in the hunt for.
The good news, as your numbers seem to indicate, is Tommy is not the biggest problem this team has. Fixing the defense provides for this offensive team an opportunity to lead ND to a ten win regular season.
ND DEFENSE needs to step up starting this weekend.
Go Irish!
Larry
Secondary and front seven will have to get better at communicating. Key last year was Manti and Zeke.
FearlessFlea
The front seven on the D looks fat and slow (too much training table?). Tuitt looked mcuh better last year when he was lean and mean. The D line has lost their quickness and their lateral mobility looks greatly impaired. Our linebackers have poor lateral quickness. Tackling is poor at best; too much reaching with the arms and not enough leg drive on contact. The tackler must still maintain some coil at impact so that the body can drive through the ball carrier. Looks like they need to go back to their tackling fundamentals. On a more positive note, the offensive line walled off the Purdue defense on the last series allowing McDaniel to make some good runs. They will need to do the same this Saturday against Sparty.