Earlier last week the National Football Foundation released the first rankings of the 11th season of the Bowl Championship Series. In that time, the Irish have spent some portion of 5 seasons ranked in the BCS rankings, and, of course, the Irish have managed to gain an invitation to one of the BCS bowls 3 times. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish went unranked in this first series of BCS rankings, which places the Irish in a tricky spot. Much discussion among fans and pundits has been spent anticipating the opportunity for the Irish to be ranked in the 2nd BCS rankings when they’re released next week should the Irish defeat the SoCal Trojans on Saturday night, but given the history of the Irish in the BCS, simply beating the Trojans and then winning the remainder of their games may not be enough to get Notre Dame a BCS invite this year.
| Season | Week of Entry in BCS Ranks |
Rank upon entry |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | week 2 | 14th |
| 2002 | week 1 | 3rd |
| 2004 | week 1 | 23rd |
| 2005 | week 1 | 16th |
| 2006 | week 1 | 8th |
Above is a table displaying the entry points of Notre Dame into the BCS rankings over the past 10 seasons. Of course, the 2000, 2005, and 2006 seasons represent the three BCS seasons for the Irish. And as you’ll probably remember, in 2002, the Irish were in contention to reach a BCS bowl game until a slaughtering to end the season at the hands of the SoCal Trojans.
There exist some key differences between the 3 successful runs to the BCS bowls in the past for the Irish and this season. In 2002 and 2005, the Irish were undefeated as they entered the BCS ranks. In 2006, the Irish had only suffered 1 loss (to Michigan, 21-47) by the time the BCS rankings had begun. Further, looking ahead, with a win this weekend, the Irish probably enter the 2nd week of the BCS rankings, but far lower than the entry points in the successful runs. There’s virtually no way the Irish will start next week ranked 16th or higher in the BCS. However, given a win-streak to close out the season, the Irish still have a fairly good chance of reacing a BCS bowl.
As per the most recent BCS qualification guidelines:
- Notre Dame will have an automatic berth if it is in the top eight of the final BCS Standings.
- If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifying teams, then Notre Dame may qualify if they have won at least nine regular-season games, and
Notre Dame is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings. - If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings
At this point, item #2 seems like the most likely scenario in which the Irish could reach a BCS berth, but even that scenario is a lofty goal, given that the Irish have previously never reached a BCS berth without already being ranked within 2 spots of that #14 rank – which the 2nd scenario necessitates – upon entry into the ranks.
Point being, simply beating the Trojans this weekend, while helpful, may not suffice to kick off a BCS campaign for the Irish. A much bigger result in favor of the Irish may not be necessary, but would at least help assure a berth. Meanwhile, due to the NCAA sanctions levied on SoCal, while the Trojans might otherwise face a similar BCS scenario, perhaps seeking a 2nd Pac-12 berth from an unranked starting position, given their poll results, SoCal is left with no incentive to win games outside of the games themselves. Burn Troy, Irish. Leave nothing behind.
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So let’s beat them 48-9 and make an impression on those voters.
There are just too many things that are looking up for us to not win. The most telling to me? Kelly is 12-1 coming off a bye week, and everyone knows how the bye turned our team around last season.
We.Will.Win.This.Game.Fuck Troy Go Irish!!!
Is it possible to like this X2
ND.Will.Lose.This.Game.Badly.While.Brian.Kelly.Makes.Kiffin.Look.Like.A.Competent.Coach
Burn Troy to the effing ground. GO IRISH!!!
The BCS ranking will work itself out. As long as we win, we will comfortably be in the top 14. If we win this week and Mich State loses, we probably jump by them.
My instinct tells me that there are about 7-8 teams that we can’t get past, but 9-14 is very attainable. Lets just crush SC and Navy and see where we are.
I dont know how you can write a post about ND’s chances at BCS glory and not mention Stanford at all. If the Irish just beat the Cheaters(demolition would be sweet though) and win out, that neans we beat the likely #4/3 team in the country. After we beat Troy, i expect us to be T20 heres why:
1. Aub/LSU, likely the war eagle loses and drops them to at least 25 opening a spot for ND to move past
2. Ga Tech AT Miami, i have a feeling the Canes pull the upset creating another hole for Irish to move past
3. Wisc@Sparty we have to cheer for the home team, but if they lose, theyll finally be under us again where they belong.
4. Stanford will put an end to Wash dreams at BCS glory.
Agreed. There are lots of other teams to fall off this week and upcoming. At this point in the season, even if we don’t have any big games again until Stanford, there should be a good amount of attrition above us as other teams get into conference play. If we did not have a high ranked team at the, end we would have a big problem with “haven’t played anyone recently” but having a big game at the end at least gives us a shot.
It would seem to me that if they win out the season, there will be no dissent as to their receiving an invite to BCS.
I think if there’s any team that go from unranked to a BCS game, it’s Notre Dame. We have very high variance with our human poll rankings – It seems to me that we rise faster than most team, but we also fall faster than most teams, and stay unranked longer than most teams. Once we crack the bubble and actually get back into the top 25, we’ll rise fast enough to be in consideration.
A few points are in order here. First, we weren’t undefeated at the time the first BCS rankings came out in 2005 — we lost to Michigan State in our third game.
As for 2002, that was a separate animal altogether. Keep in mind that the rules in 2002 provided for only two at-large bids. Today, there are four. And of the teams that didn’t get AQ bids in 2002, they represented only three conferences — the Pac-10 (USC), B1G (Iowa, Michigan, Penn State) and Big XII (Kansas State, Texas, Colorado). Because of the rule prohibiting any conference from getting more than one at-large bid, we would’ve had to go in 2002 if the current rules applied then.
All of that said, it may be too high a mountain to climb to get into the BCS this year. The only possibility is if we win out, including a win over Stanford. Without a win over Stanford, the rest of the schedule is too weak to allow us to move up sufficiently to grab a BCS at-large bid.
Holy crap I forgot the MSU game. Was there for that one. Painful. Perhaps it’s fractured my memory.
Come on, Matt — if the Irish finish 10-2 after ripping off 10 in a row, they are GOING to a BCS game, whether by rule or by invite. Not only would they be deserving as hell at that point, but no one leaves that kind of money on the table.
Pat…..WORD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How about we just beat USC this weekend,and take care of things in our control. We can only play one team each Saturday, so its ridiculous to figure out the BCS. Keep your focus on the 1 game each week we are playing, we’ll have a much better chance of winning that game, and the chips will fall where they may as the season progresses. We made our bed in the beginning of the season. Don’t dwell on the BCS right now. Its a waste of time and energy and diverts our football team. When they get diverted, there is a much better chance they will loose one of these “sure wins” your adding up, which are also called football games against good oponents. Stay focused on the task at hand people.
GT loses, WVU loses, Auburn loses…..keep the dominoes falling
Illinois too……burn Troy and be in the top 20
I think you forgot to get the winning part. That is the most important thing. Usually holding on to the ball at the 1 yard line helps with that winning thing. Cya’ next year in LA so we can re-start the home winning streak.