A few years back I was getting a bit frustrated with the perspective of all the USC fans (only fans bc USC had been cheating and therefore winning) out here in SOCAL. Most of these bandwagoners hadn’t even paid attention to USC pre-Poodle, Pre-Bush-Cheating, Pre-2000-When-They-Kinda-Sucked. And so I thought it was appropriate to put the historic ND-USC rivalry in perspective. ‘Course we’d fallen on some hard times, and of course we had a ways to go before seizing back the momentum in the series. But I knew it’d only be a matter of time, because this rivalry is one thing if it’s anything:
SUPER STREAKY.
No, no STREAKY not Freaky! (getyogetyogetyofreakon!)
Anyway, it IS super streaky. To show the ups and downs of the streakiness, I pulled together the little line chart below, which shows the Net Score (ND minus USC) of the past 82 matchups of these long-time rivals. Essentially, if the Net Score is >0, ND won, and if it’s <0, USC won. And if it's exactly zero...you guessed it, A TIE!
As you can see, after a period of some pretty even, back-and-forth action, ND then started to dominate the series first, racking up an 18-5-1 record. Then the next big streak was USC-dominant, with their running off 11 Wins to ND’s 2. But then ND came roaring back and went undefeated against the Trojans through 13 games leading up to my matriculation at ND. Seriously, anyone born around the late 70’s/early 80’s that watched ND-USC had to think that ND would forever OWN the Trojans. But, in a sad twist of fate, this rivalry swung back the other way, beginning a decade of dominance where USC went 8-1-0 with ND’s lone (GLORIOUS FABULOUS AMAZING TOTALLY EARNED BECAUSE USC’S OFFENSE SUUUUUUUCKED AND WE TRIED TO GIVE IT AWAY 4 TIMES BUT THEY ONLY TRIED TO DO THAT ONCE AND WE STILL WON SO SUCKITKIFFIN!!!!!!!!!) win coming last year at the Coliseum.
So, uh, yeah, super streaky.
But what’s nice is the trendline. Take a look at how we’re starting to see a reversal of the long-term polynomial trendline in these last 2 years. Yeah? Yeah? HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION BABY!
The takeaway is this: this thing has been going on for a long time and given the streak-filled history here, you can expect another streak to start in the other way soon. And the last 2 games seem to point to this new streak, one we can expect to be filled with NOTRE DAME DOMINANCE.
And it begins Saturday!
Let’s GO IRISH!
Don't take me, yourself, or life so seriously. This is supposed to be fun.
Biscuit co-founded HerLoyalSons in partnership with his ND roommate (Dillon Hall baby!), MQ, in 2006 and has been ranting about ND Football and everything Notre Dame since. He strongly believes in the mission of ND and its football program. Biscuit expects logic and data in arguments and will absolutely crush you if you come to a debate missing one or the other. He despises everything Michigan, and his favorite pastime is mocking Purdue.
- (Re)Introducing: DANCING LEPRECHAUNS - August 29, 2019
- Ticket Auction: ND vs USC - August 22, 2019
- No Respect! - December 14, 2018
I Believe! Go Irish!
Good job, Biscuit. One nit-pic: in the middle of the graph, it looks like there are two ties in a row, but that doesn’t seem to be reflected in the records.
Not every game is included in the streaks – those 2 fall just outside of the ranges on either side. I didn’t include those sections where things were relatively even bc they tended to be short-lived (outside of the first one) and it muddied the story.
Gotcha, good call.
Boom goes the dynamite!!!
#suckitkiffin
I cant imagine the relief youre going to feel the next 5-10 years after putting up with the bandwagoning arrogance out there fpr as long as you have. Unfortunately, Californians have kind of shown that as soon as their teams suck, they give up. So you may not get to bask in the glory too much.
No kidding Trey. It took SC fans less than one full season to turn on Goat Boy Kiffin. Unfortunately, I’m afraid that means that we won’t be guaranteed even 5 years of USC mediocrity. If they shit can Lame after year 3, and make a good hire, they could be back in business 3 years from now.
You know, honestly, I wouldnt mind that. SC isn’t to the level of scUM where I utterly despise them and would NEVER cheer for them under ANY circumstance. I think it’d be great to have 1 v 2 type matchups with SC every year. The problem over the last decade (was in part to cheating but also) was mostly OUR fault for fielding crummy teams. We’ve rectified our problems and I think are ready to compete at a national level again.
You are more magnanimous than I. I would like at least 8 years of payback for the WillingWeis years before they right their ship. Familiarity breeds contempt and being West Coast Irish and sitting through more than a couple ugly losses in the Coliseum, my disdain for USC and their fans far exceeds anything I feel for any other ND opponent.
I’m with you. I’m a bit older, and was at ND during the long hiatus in the scUM rivalry. There are plenty of historical reasons to dislike them, and I do, but the only rival I HATE is U$C.Go Irish!
They are going to struggle once the sanctions really start to hit. No matter how well they’ve recruited before them, their next few classes will be TINY.
Excellent visual representation of the series. It’s like each dot tells a story. “Hey! I was at that dot!”
This is the kind of hard hitting investigative journalism that brings me back to HLS time and time again. Nicely done.
RE: recruit classes; wouldn’t it be great if we could grab Arik Armstead under SC’s nose, causing them to fly home without a win and without one of their top recruits!