During the preseason, I put two posts looking at top-10 teams from the 2005 to 2010 seasons and how they stacked up offensively and defensively. The goal was to highlight what type of production we would need from the Irish if we were to consider ourselves a BCS caliber team and hopefully make a BCS bowl game. While starting the year with 2 losses cut any margin of error we have regarding those hopes, there is still an chance that ND can get in to a game.
In the two losses, most Notre Dame fans would agree that turnovers were the biggest causes of the two losses rather than general performance by the offense or defense. In fact, Football Outsiders valued the 10 turnovers against USF & UM at 55.3 equivalent points. In other words, in the two games we lost by a combined 7 points, we gave away almost 8 touchdown’s worth of points by turning the ball over.
I’ll now pause while we all commence smashing our heads against the nearest hard surface.
Anyway, the charts are back!…with one addition. I added in the average for the teams ranked 6-10. This gives a more realistic bar for ND to strive to achieve.
NOTE: The 2011 stats only have 7 weeks worth of data and are being compared against years with full seasons of data. So there can still be wild variation between week to week. The stats will be more accurate and become more reliable as more games are played and more data about each team is available. But they are interesting enough to look out now.
Offense
Quick overview: 2011 ND = very light blue and all the way to the right. Also, higher = better
As you can see, across the board, Notre Dame has been fairly exceptional on offense. The Irish have been better than not only the 6-10 mean but also the 1-10 average in ever category. Most impressive (or importantly) is the Rush O S&P+. The running game has performed about 23% better than average running game of a top 10 team. Think about the last time we could say that! Another stellar showing for the offense has been the performance on passing downs.
Passing Downs are defined as:
- second down with 8 or more yards to go
- third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go
The Passing Down S&P+ of 177.4 is the 2nd highest of any top 10 team since 2005 and beaten only by the Cam Newton led Auburn team of last season. It’s a damn impressive stat and one of the biggest reasons ND has been successful on offense. Success on passing downs keeps drives alive which in turn keeps our defense off the field and rested.
Just sit back and look at that rush D. It’s damn impressive. That Rush D S&P+ of 189.9 means that so far, through 6 games, our rushing defense has been ~29% better than the best rushing D of top 10 teams since 2005. However, I was surprised to realize that ND is actually the 2nd ranked rush D so far during 2011 with Alabama at 241.1 (!) while LSU is 3rd at 174.4. Bob Diaco’s defense has kept up it’s strong play against the run that began in the Tulsa game last season.
On the other hand, as the S&P+ shows, the Pass D hasn’t been ideal. If I had to guess, I’d have to say that a majority of that is from our performance in Ann Arbor. Allowing 300+ yards passing to Denard Robinson given his standard performance in every other game this year severely impacted the numbers. ND’s pass D S&P+ dropped from 138.8 to 123.2 over the bye week as Denard stunk the up joint against Michigan State. Additionally and more worrisome going forward, the Passing D on Passing Downs has not been that good. Some of that could be from Diaco’s ‘Bend but don’t Break’ philosophy that allows works to prevent big plays. And the red zone defense has been extremely stout. Still, it’s an area that the Irish need to do better over the last 6 games. Improving on Passing Downs allows the D to force more 3 & outs and put our explosive offense back onto the field.
Conclusions
Statistically, Notre Dame has been one of the top 10-15 teams in the country on offense and defense. Against Purdue & Airforce, we’ve seen how good the Irish can look when cutting out the turnovers. So while this doesn’t give solace to any of us regarding the USF and Michigan losses, it should give some hope and provide some excitement about the team going forward the next 6 weeks. Then again, if we lay an egg on Saturday night (which isn’t going to happen), none of this matters and I’ll look like more of an idiot than I usually do. But hopes of a BCS game start Saturday night with our asswhooping of Southern Cal. Remember #BeatSC
All stats via of Football Outsiders. Explanations of the stats can be found there too. (Link)
- Florida State 18, Notre Dame 14: A Quick Recap - December 29, 2011
- Stanford 28, Notre Dame 14: A Quick Recap - November 27, 2011
- Notre Dame 16, Boston College 14: A Quick Recap - November 21, 2011
NDtex
This season could very well drive us insane. There is no doubt that the turnovers cost us in the first two games. I can only imagine how good we would be without shooting ourselves in the foot in those two.
EGVVND
Absolutely those first two games drive me insane thinking about. At least it has given the team some adversity to work through and bodes very well for the future. Which brings up the question: if ND continues to improve on both sides of the ball, can they improve enough next year to make a MNC run with that brutal schedule?
PAK
Yeah those first two losses are infuriating, especially given the high hopes we all had coming into the season. I’m really glad the team has rebounded like it has.
I think a national championship run might be a bit of a lofty goal for next season, given our losses on both sides of the ball and the ridiculousness of the schedule. BCS isn’t out of the question but I think we lose too much on defense (and Floyd on offense) to think we can make a legit championship run.
Canadian_Irish
Realistically, who’s gone on D? I’m thinking the biggest questions might be in the secondary (Gray, Blanton, Smith), but if the front 7 improves like they should the secondary won’t have to play lights out…
PAK
That’s almost all of our entire starting defensive backfield! An improved front 7 helps a defensive backfield, no doubt, but I am not looking forward to playing Oklahoma with 3 new starters back there.
On top of that, there’s the possibility of losing Te’o. I’ve watched all of ND’s games, and several ASU games. Te’o has been much better than Burfict, his only real competition for #1 MLB in the country, all year long, and the announcers have not been shy about pointing that out.
canuck75
I think Manti is staying. He seems much more committed to team and family than the usual first round prospect.
I think the replacements for Harison and Gray will be more than adequate. I think Bennett Jackson is the best athlete not on the field right now.
We will be great next year, but lets enjoy this year! Beat USC and Stanford and maybe play Boise. Wow, what a great year it still can be.
Canadian_Irish
I think Manti is staying…..and I think with an even better front 7 next year, the replacements can step in adequately……do I want to play OU with those 3 newbies right now? No…..but who will OU lose on O by 2012?
PAK
I think he will WANT to stay, but I think ultimately he will (and, tbh, should) leave because there is nothing he will be able to do to improve his standing as an NFL prospect. He’s already a physical freak, a natural leader, has great instincts, and has learned the mental side of the game. The last 5 years or so have shown so many great players stick around for an extra year for various reasons only to have it really bite them in the end, and while I would love to have Te’o for another year I wouldn’t blame him for one second if he decided it was his time to move on.0
As for OU, they lose Broyles and possibly Landry Jones next year (he’s a Junior but I have zero idea how he projects as an NFL QB), so there will be a falloff, but OU has a history of just rolling the next guy in at QB and trucking right along. The offense will still likely be plenty potent.
All along I’ve had my eyes on 2013. Our young D-line will be mature, an experienced QB, the next crop of WR/RB talent will have grown up with Kelly’s offense…
Sad Warrior
Yeah, what Canadian Irish said.
trey
So what does this say about our chances at Stan? Theyve played practically no one, will play only Oregon before ND. Will they be battle-tested enough to hang with us if we have a BCS play-in on the line?
SDI
Trey–Stanford is very beatable. They don’t have much big play ability and their defense is unproven. Don’t be surprised if Oregon, ASU, and even USC put up a bunch of points on Stanford. I think that the ND matchup will look much different by late November.
trey
Hope you’re right, partner. I dont see how we could have beaten a top 15 and top 5 team in the season and NOT make the BCS afterwards.
timmytonks1
Let’s hope stanford beats oregon. We need them undefeated when we play them.
notredamegrad
Thank you for the excellent charts and breakdown. It is staggering just how well ND has actually played this year in the face of all the jeremiads during the first two wretched weeks. And to think – just seven easy points, just a missed play here (Denard’s miraculous fumble recovery for TD), another there (any of the INTs in the end zone, the missed FGs), just a few seconds (that last UM TD) – how close this team is to undefeated. It does make the next 6 weeks look encouraging.
I’ve been surprised to see so much pessimism about this week’s game from SC fans – the little reading I’ve done among their blogs and comments doesn’t show much hope for an SC win. Some are blaming SC injuries and sanctions, but many see the Irish as dominant on defense (front 7, anyway), dominant with Floyd and Eifert, and better coached.
Here’s to the Irish pulling out all the stops and playing like we know they can. Go Irish! Destroy SC!
Whiskeyjack
This post is worthy of many views and comments. That is all.