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NDtex25 Week 7: Taking on the BCS

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ndtex_25

Rank Team Score Last Week BCS Rank AP Rank Coaches’ Rank
1 LSU 115.25 1 1 1 2
2 Alabama 113.5 5 2 2 3
3 Boise State 113.5 4 5 5 7
4 Oklahoma State 113.5 2 4 6 6
5 Oklahoma 108.75 3 3 3 1
6 Clemson 105.5 6 7 8 8
7 Wisconsin 104.25 15 6 4 4
8 South Carolina 103.5 7 14 14 12
9 Auburn 102 22 20 19 23
10 Stanford 99 10 8 7 5
11 Houston 98 12 19 21 20
12 Penn State 95.25 16 21 NR 22
13 Michigan State 94.75 17 16 15 13
14 Virginia Tech 93.75 26 12 16 14
15 Georgia 93.5 19 NR 24 NR
16 Arizona State 93.25 13 NR 24 25
17 Michigan 92.5 11 18 18 17
18 Nebraska 92.25 9 13 13 11
19 Texas 89.25 20 24 NR NR
20 Toledo 87.75 42 NR NR NR
21 Arkansas 87.25 18 9 10 10
22 Oregon 87 25 10 9 8
23 Rutgers 87 23 NR NR NR
24 Missouri 86.75 31 NR NR NR
25 Georgia Tech 86.5 8 22 20 19
Dropped Out of NDtex25: USF (14), Illinois (21), Vanderbilt (24)
Just Missed the Cut: Cincinnati, Ohio State, San Diego State, UL Lafayette, Illinois

Full Rankings
Formula Details

ND’s Rank: 31

 

ND Opponent Rankings

  • USF – 33
  • Michigan – 17
  • Michigan State – 13
  • Pittsburgh – 37
  • Purdue – 65
  • Air Force – 113
  • USC – 41
  • Navy – 80
  • Wake Forest – 43
  • Maryland – 75
  • Boston College – 114
  • Stanford – 10
  • Avg Opponent Rank – 53

Conference Breakdown

  • ACC – 3
  • Big East – 1
  • Big Ten – 5
  • Big XII – 4
  • PAC 12 – 3
  • SEC – 6
  • Indpendents – 0
  • Non-AQ – 3

Bottom Ten

  1. Rice
  2. Minnesota
  3. Air Force
  4. Boston College
  5. UAB
  6. Army
  7. New Mexico
  8. Memphis
  9. Akron
  10. Central Michigan

Much to my surprise, quite a few of the NDtex25 either match or come close to matching their BCS ranking.  This seems to point that I’m heading in the right direction with my formulas on how to rank the teams.  While there are still some teams that I personally wouldn’t put into the top 25, I still feel that as the season goes on, those outliers will continue to find their way out of my rankings.

Personally, I feel that Toledo and Rutgers best exemplify teams that will soon be out of the NDtex25.  Just take a look at what happened to USF.  They went from 14 to out in just a week.  These things will even out.

Probably more eye popping are the high ranks of South Carolina and Auburn.  In the case of South Carolina, their only loss is to Auburn whose high rank makes that loss sting a whole lot less.  Plus with high ANTY and Avg TO Margin rankings (25 and 17), I feel like I may just be ahead of the curve on this one.  Of course, that’s if they don’t fall on their face.

Auburn might raise more eyebrows as they have lost two games.  However, those two losses are to Clemson and Arkansas, both of whom are in the top 25, making those losses sting so much less.  Auburn trails only Alabama in ANTY ranking which more than balances out the two losses.  I know people are rather sick of hearing how SEC teams are ranked too high, but in this case, it’s holding true.  Even the BCS agrees with me as Clemson is ranked 7 and Arkansas is ranked 9.

Arkansas and Oregon though, are ranked well below their BCS mark.  Both Arkansas and Oregon may have a quality W/L points ranking; however, they are crippled by their ANTY ranking & Average TO Margin ranking.  Arkansas ranks 18 in ATNY, but an awful 83 in Average TO Margin, averaging to 50.5. In Oregon’s case, those two ranks (68 & 47) average out to 57.5.  Those low rankings do not do those two any favors and are the reason why they are toward the bottom of the top 25.

As far as ND is concerned, they fell three spots in their bye week.  With USC ranked 41, I would predict that a multiple possession when would finally allow them to crack the NDtex25.  Burn Troy, boys, it’s been far too long for this team to remain unranked.

Ryan Ritter

Ryan Ritter

Editor-in-Chief
Texan by birth, Irish by choice.

Born and raised in the great state of Texas, Tex is a first-generation Domer and a former student manager. After graduation, he left the cold winters of South Bend behind and returned back to his home state with a computer engineering degree in tow. Missing the daily grind of working football practices and talking football with fellow Irish fans every day, he took to blogging, a path which eventually led him to Her Loyal Sons. Continuously diving into stats and game film, Tex strives to break down every aspect of Fighting Irish football--even though it's determined to kill him.
Ryan Ritter

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Comments

  2. I think things will simmer down later in the season. Right now I don’t have a big problem with ND being out of the top 25 but Auburn with 2 losses to 2 top 25 teams and ND with one loss to one top 25er and another to one not much further down and beating the snot out of another top 25 er and ND should be ranked if Auburn is. ND lost both games extremely close.

    • The problem though is ND’s Average Turnover Margin which is still one of the worst in the nation as they rank 109.

      Their other rankings are solid, but they still need to undo the damage of the first two games in order to continue to climb the ranks.

  3. If your goal is to come close to the BCS rankings, then you are on the right track. But that may not be a worthy goal. As Yahoo! Sports demonstrated, the BCS’s decision to ignore margin of victory robs the computer rankings of significant accuracy and makes for a compromised set of rankings.

    The Yahoo! sports article suggests that computer rankings which include margin of victory and strength of schedule are quite accurate. Jeff Sagarin provides such rankings, and he has Notre Dame ranked 11th.

    For whatever that’s worth.

    • I’m using the BCS more as a measuring stick than anything else. In the end, I’d like to have a more accurate rankings than even the BCS.

      Unlike the BCS, I do include margin of victory (along with additional statistical analysis).

      More or less, I’m proving I’m not out of mind, now I want to see if I do better than the BCS.

  4. Probably should have done this from the start, but I have added a link to a detailed table with full ranking information (http://ndtex.com/ndtex_test/details.php). This will include W/L Points, ANTY, and Avg TO Margin ranks for all teams

    Hopefully this can give a quick overview to see why people are ranked the way they are.

    Remember, the final score is calculated by taking the average of ANTY & Avg TO Margin, adding that to W/L points, and finally dividing that by two.

    Topped ranked team in each category gets 120 points and the bottom ranked gets 1 point.

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