Via @CFBPlayof

I mentioned on Monday that I would write a rebuttal to Bayou’s hypothesis that playing Navy close would cost us playoff positioning. Thankfully, the College Football Playoff Committee saved me from loads of writing by making the argument for me by keeping the Fighting Irish ranked at #10.

As I said during the ND Fan Radio Navy post game show, I felt that the narrow win against Navy would mean about as much to the committee as the blowout win against Rice did: nothing.

Last week, I put forward my own hypothesis that the two biggest factors the committee used in ranking teams were the number of losses and the amount of quality wins against the top 25. The committee didn’t appear to care about margin of victory, the quality of opponent faced, or how “good” a loss was unless they were trying to break a tie between two teams.

And that logic once again held this week. With that in mind, I’ve managed to pull out a few more nuggets of knowledge from this week’s rankings. I have updated the spreadsheet from last week and added a new tab for this weeks rankings and a breakdown of the top 25, their opponents, and all their wins and losses (and included the two teams dropped out this week as a bonus!).

No Team That Won Dropped in the Rankings

If you take one thing away from this post, it should be this point. If a team in the top 25 won they either rose in the rankings or they didn’t move. The six teams that dropped in the rankings all lost.

Often times, pollsters seem to consider some wins as “bad” and thus punish a team for winning a football game. That has never really made much sense to me and I’m glad to see the committee bucking that trend. Doubly so because the committee clearly used a similar logic for a “good” loss, a judgment call that certainly affected Notre Dame’s initial ranking.

The message from the committee is quite clear: win your games (unless you have a laughable schedule like Marshall, in which case, sorry, please try again).

Margin of Victory Doesn’t Matter Except When It Does

Notre Dame, nor any other team like Auburn or TCU, were punished for winning a close game. Likewise, we have also seen that huge blowout wins (Alabama over Texas A&M) or blowout loses (Arizona State losing to UCLA) don’t really seem to make a difference in the rankings. Despite that, committee chair, Jeff Long, had this to say about Notre Dame and Arizona State:

Hmm. Long: ASU, ND have common opponent in Stanford. ASU moved ahead because of more convincing win.

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) November 5, 2014

So perhaps, more accurately, we should say that MOV only matters in a tie-breaker type discussion.

This logic though is somewhat head-scratching if you apply the same logic to a Notre Dame/Michigan State comparison and their common opponent, Michigan. I suppose the only logic there though is that Michigan State had the quality win so they initially put Sparty over ND. Since Michigan State didn’t lose this week, the committee didn’t want to then drop them down a spot.

So really, it appears the question the committee was trying to answer here was just how far should they allow Arizona State to rise and a debate arose between either #9 or #10, leading to the MOV comparison with Notre Dame. But hey, this works great for the Irish as not only do they have a chance for a quality win, but a win against a team ranked above them, meaning that a potential Arizona State loss will hopefully keep them well within the top 25.

Is the SEC Still Awesome?

I’ll be interested to see this week’s update to the theory. Signs may still point to yes. In each loss grouping, an SEC team sits a top of each pack–save for one. There is one lone three loss team in the top 25, West Virginia, hailing from the Big XII.

Currently, each top SEC team is benefiting from the circular logic that committee uses in terms of quality wins, but, as a said last week, at least the committee is consistent in their logic. Further, both SEC teams in the top 25 took significant drops, including Ole Miss whose heartbreaking loss to #3 Auburn, due to a freak injury no less, received no mercy from the committee.

In my mind, the bias is still there, but is much more tolerable. These rankings paint the SEC as the top conference in college football, which is hard to argue. However, that doesn’t give an SEC team any luxury to not be punished quite heavily for a loss.

In fact, I dare say this could lead to a possible nightmare scenario. There does exist a potential doomsday possibility that the SEC emerges with zero one-loss teams. Will the committee change their logic then or will they remain consistent and, I can’t believe I’m saying this, actually shut the SEC out of the playoff picture?

Notre Dame Can Join the Playoff Debate in Earnest After This Saturday

That is, if the Irish win.

Without any quality wins on their resume, any debate about how strong the ND schedule should have been or how it is still stronger than other teams that play FCS teams, is pointless. All other teams above us still have at least one quality win and five of the teams in the top ten have two quality wins.

A win against Arizona State changes all of that. With a top 25 win, the Irish and Brian Kelly can start making debates and politicking in earnest. With two games within the top ten (#6 TCU/#7 Kansas State & #9 Arizona State/#10 Notre Dame), another top ten team, #5 Alabama, playing #16 LSU, and #8 Michigan State taking on #14 Ohio State, the Irish have a huge opportunity to rise up the rankings.

The path to the playoff is still narrow, but it’s there.

The post Notre Dame Remains #10; What We Learned from the College Football Playoff Committee appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

We don’t know what exactly the 12-person committee will use as criteria for which teams make the final cut. We don’t know if they’ll take injuries or suspensions into account. We don’t know how they’ll weigh conference championships. We don’t know if they’ll show compassion for a team that lost in the final seconds of an epic top five show down because of a controversial offensive penalty that negated a game-winning score. We don’t know anything, really.

Several committee members have noted that they watch upwards of fifty teams a week. Not just the top teams, but also the teams that the top teams play, specifically the ones that will be considered common denominators. I imagine, and this is just me, that teams that cross conference lines such as Clemson, South Carolina, or Arizona State will be major influences even if they don’t have realistic chances to make the Football Four themselves.

I broke down the top teams into three tiers. The top tier are the current “guarantees” if there are such a thing at this point. The second tier will be the teams fighting for the last one or two spots. The third tier are the teams that need some help outside of their own schedule.

Tier One: 

• Mississippi State – The widely-considered top team in the nation has by far the best resume. They have wins against three top ten teams (at the time of kickoff) and they’ve been one of the most consistent and dominant teams in all of their wins (their only single-digit winning margin was on the road against LSU).
• Ole Miss – While they don’t have as many top wins as their magnolia state brethren, they did knock of Alabama, skyrocketing them into the top three. the rest of their wins have been just as dominant as Mississippi State, but not against quite as high of talent thus far.
• Florida State – If the Seminoles were a Friends episode, it would be called “The one that didn’t die”. This team has found ways to eke out wins when it shouldn’t have. If they do fall at some point, the voters will likely make them pay for it.

For now, these teams are in. Unfortunately for the two Mississippi teams, the Egg Bowl could be the first of potentially four straight playoff games for the winner. If both teams win out, the Egg Bowl decides the SEC West winner, who will then have to play in the SEC Championship, then into the NCAA playoffs. Only one of these teams will get in. I feel like any team that gets a loss in the last two weeks of the season will be toast. That’s just how voters remember things.

Florida State will likely win out. The ACC is terrible and FSU has already faced the hardest teams on their schedule. So barring some incredible upset that would likely make the entire nation celebrate, we have to assume the Seminoles are going to be in the playoffs.

Tier Two:

I saved this one for last because it is the deepest and in the most flux. If you’re a Notre Dame fan, these are the teams we need to watch closely if we hope to get back into the top four. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the top tier, but likely two out of those three teams are going to be in the playoffs. That leaves just two more spots open. At this point, it’s going to be hard to see an outcome where two SEC teams don’t go. The SEC West is just too incredibly deep, and as we’ll see shortly we can’t count out Georgia out of the East either.

• Alabama – Of all the one-loss teams in the SEC West, Bama has the best shot of stealing the conference. A win over Mississippi State throws the entire nation into a mess, let alone the division.
• Auburn – Similar to Alabama, Auburn has plenty of chances to win out against big teams and still take the division. No matter what, the Iron Bowl likely decides which team gets eliminated.
• Oregon – The Ducks’ big problem was originally that Michigan State looked like not such a big win, but now it’s looking a lot better. Now their problem lies in the schedule. With no big games remaining until the conference championship, it’s hard for Oregon to impress anyone on the committee.
• Notre Dame – Some people are saying Notre Dame’s loss almost helped the Irish as much as a win at least in perception of if they belong with the big boys. Notre Dame cannot win a conference championship, but their schedule allows them not to have to. A couple of “big enough” games are still ahead of them, as well.
• Michigan State – Right now, they’re a little on the outside looking in, but defeating Ohio State in two weeks will put them squarely into the mix. After that, the path smooths out and even the B1G Championship will be very gettable.
• Georgia – If there’s any team that has been overlooked this year, it might be Georgia. With one more big game against Auburn coming up and a potential trip to the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs are far from dead this season.

The biggest question out of this tier will be what happens in the SEC West. There’s a scenario where Ole Miss beats Alabama who beats Mississippi State who beats Ole Miss. I don’t even know who wins the division at that point, let alone gets into the playoffs. Or how about Auburn beats Ole Miss who beats Mississippi State who already beat Auburn? Could there be a four-way tie? Only time will tell and it’ll be huge for the outside one-loss teams hoping to get a chance at the championship.

Tier Three:

• TCU/Kansas State/Baylor – These teams must win out. The Big 12 just isn’t strong enough right now to guarantee a one-loss champion getting into the playoffs. Kansas State may have the best chance as they close the season with games against not only TCU and Baylor but also West Virginia. Running that table would go a long way to bumping their resume.
• Nebraska/Ohio State – Both of these teams will need to win the B1G championship to have a shot. That chance is greater for OSU as they have a huge game against Michigan State looming.
• Arizona State/Arizona – The loss to UCLA is killing them right now as the Bruins have dropped in the rankings. Still, with wins over USC, Stanford and a game against Notre Dame later on, it could give them a chance to steal the PAC 12 South and play Oregon as a play-in game. Arizona has a huge win against Oregon, but will have to beat ASU to get a rematch against the Ducks. It’ll be hard to beat that team twice.

It’s going to be hard for any of these teams to make the playoffs, there’s just too much up in the air at this point on their schedules. The Big 12 teams have beaten each other up just enough to knock them all out. The B1G teams need Michigan State to drop out. The Arizona teams have mediocre losses on their record already, have to play each other still, and THEN still have to likely play Oregon. Are these teams out of it? Not even close. But it’s a steep hill in front of them.

My gut tells me that if the remaining season is on short supply of surprises, the last spot will come down to Notre Dame and Michigan State. We’re going to see exactly what the committee weighs heavily and which things aren’t as important. Of all the seasons these two teams could have picked to not play each other, it looks like it happened when both teams needed the game the most. One could be a conference champion whose only loss is on the road to a top five team. One could be a cross-country conqueror whose only loss is on the road to a top five team.

It’s hard to compare Notre Dame to other teams around the country. There’s no conference championship to play for, which could end up being the death blow to a 2014 championship run. While Notre Dame sits at 11-1 after a win on the road to USC, the other teams will all be playing nationally televised all-or-nothing games. Will it be Georgia versus Mississippi State? Whoever is in this game, the winner is in. Florida State will likely win the ACC with an unblemished record. They’re in.

That leaves two spots. There is a strong chance that two SEC teams finishes the season at 11-1 and DOESN’T make the championship game, despite having defeated at least one of the teams in that game. How can you punish a team from the SEC West with an 11-1 record? You can’t. They’re in, too.

That leaves one final spot.

Notre Dame. Michigan State. Oregon.

Who gets in? Does the head-to-head victory for Oregon over Michigan State knock out the Spartans? Oregon and Michigan State will likely both win conferences, does that end the season for the Irish? Notre Dame will have played the hardest schedule. Does that cook the Ducks?

Even more importantly, will any of that even matter?

If college football has taught us anything, it’s that there will always be more surprises. We know there will be teams in the top ten that will receive their first or second loss this season. That’s a guarantee. But we also know that a couple more will likely be upset. Who takes that fall? Will Notre Dame lose to Arizona State? Does Oregon stumble against Stanford? Does Kentucky surprise a big name? Does LSU? Can Michigan ruin the Spartans season?

Anything can and will happen in the NCAA. We’ve already had a week where five top ten teams lost. If only one top ten team loses a week from now until December, we will have a drastically different idea of what a playoff team might look like. The key? Don’t be one of those teams that lose. If Notre Dame can avoid that fate, they’ll be getting good news about January.

The post Notre Dame Still Squarely in Playoff Picture appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

This year has been a bit different. Just go take a look at this week’s IBG, the questions and answers are full of more “wait and see” themes than usual. Perhaps some of that is due to the bye being so early. Perhaps that is because there’s been only one opponent and game we’ve really been excited about and next week’s opponent isn’t USC or Stanford, but Syracuse.

So the more I thought about Notre Dame and their place in the college football world this week, the more my thoughts started to flow outward to the rest of that world.

While the game against Purdue caused some concern (and rightly so), take a look at how the rest of the week went. Virginia Tech, after convincingly defeating Ohio State, had their doors blown off by ECU. Georgia fell apart against South Carolina. Florida nearly lost to Kentucky in OT, in The Swamp no less. Iowa State took out Iowa. And, of course, Boston College upset Southern Cal.

Perhaps you had a feeling about some of these games. There is no way in hell you saw all of that coming. This past week was proof that no matter how hard we try, college football will remind us that we simply cannot predict everything.

College football is a crazy, illogical world. Its season is scattered with statistical outliers and results that make little to no sense. Emotions and other intangibles can reign supreme on any even Saturday and set fire to the expected paper result.

Compare this game to the NFL. Through much work, the pros have created a league of parity. Sure, you have good teams and bad, but the tiers are so well structured that the expectations stay reasonable. An upset will happen here and there, but you never see anything resembling this past week in the NFL. More often than not, you know what to expect: competitive games in which the known better teams will come out on top.

It’s almost a sterile environment for football in comparison to the college game. Give me the crazy, emotional investment with the potential for devastating, unexpected results any day.

Sure, this may mean that Notre Dame may inexplicably forget how to play football for a half against Purdue, leading to additional liver damage by way of increased alcohol intake. However, it also means that the joy of being able to find success in this crazy landscape is simply unparalleled.

The Roundup

Michigan fans are still trying to figure out their offense. Pay special attention to the play action pattern they uncovered here.

Famous Jameis being infamous. Poor meme usage leads to the question of whether or not he gets it at all.

Wait, stealing signs is a story? So last night, K-State mentioned Auburn was stealing their signs, leading to memories of Arkansas and Florida State claiming the same previously. Isn’t that, I don’t know, part of the game? I mean, that’s kind of the reason why people use signs in the first place instead of holding a big sign saying “Hey, play action is coming!” right?

File this under “Only at Notre Dame”. I won’t have proper words to describe this, just read it.

File this under “wait, really?!” So Washington fans knew Sark was a fraud and warned Southern Cal about it, apparently. Queue the “I told you so” column and I can’t help but wonder why they hate the guy that drug them out of the Ty Willingham abyss.

And now your moment of Nix… This is the only time BC has given me joy:

The Booze

I’ve been in Portland all week for work. This means all the IPAs, right?

The post Friday Roundup: The “Crazy World of College Football” Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

This is quite a milestone for us, and considering that we aren’t connected to a blogging network, have struggled through growing pains like server moves, redesigns, and crashes, this is simply awesome — especially considering we have a full month to go in 2012!

I would like to personally thank all of our staff for all of their hard work on the blog and behind the scenes. This doesn’t happen without their dedication.

I would also like to thank anyone that has ever linked us, shared our work, or suggested to people that they come drop on by. Of course huge thanks are in order to NDNation, One Foot Down, The Subway Domer, and Inside the Irish for consistently linking our work through their sites and Twitter. A special thanks to the Strong and True blog as well for coming into the blogging game in all their official glory and showing us some link love as well.

Of course, there are loads of others that have shared our work, and they are too numerous to name. Trust me, it’s very appreciated.

And finally, a thanks to the Loyal Readers that continue to come here every day to read our work and talk Irish football with us. I can’t thank all of y’all enough. It’s just going to keep on getting better from here!

The Roundup

The coaching carousel has started. One Foot Down has a good overview to get you caught up.

Happy trails, Monte Kiffin. I have a feeling USC fans are wishing a different Kiffin is leaving though.

There is one other game of musical chairs going on. The ACC needed a replacement for Maryland and they found one in the Cards.

Law & Order: Teabagging. Remember that Alabama idiot that put his junk on the face of a passed out LSU fan? Well, he’s about to enjoy two years of prison. Want a do-over there, buddy?

You realize there is going to be a drug test right? Here’s a suggestion, Honey Badger, lay off the weed so you don’t screw this up too.

We can never have too many #HEISMANTI posts. Here’s a fantastic (and long) piece that John Walters put together for UND.com.

Put These Games on Your Radar

#2 Alabama vs #3 Georgia, SEC Championship, 4:00pm EST, CBS -Pretty simple, future scouting of ND’s future opponent. Should be a great one.

#11 Oklahoma @ TCU, 12pm EST, ESPN/WatchESPN – Should be a good start to the day and if OU wins, they could win the Big XII title if…

#18 Texas @ #6 Kansas State, 8:00pm EST, ABC – …Texas manages to pull this game off.

And a special, FRIDAY game:

#21 Northern Illinois vs #17 Kent State, MAC Championship, 7:00pm EST, ESPN/WatchESPN – Thought I was going for the Pac 12 Championship didn’t you? Nah, we’ve seen that game already, settle in for some MACtion and possible BCS hilarity. If Kent State wins, they might actually find their way into a BCS game as well.

Predictions

Closest to the Pin – Week 12

Well, the regular season is over and Twibby takes the last win coming scarily close with his 22-13 prediction. Only one more to make, but until January, here are your standings:

Bayou likely has the title in hand; however, an exact prediction by either Biscuit or Twibby will mean a tie for first.

The Beer

I know Biscuit hates when I tap into my Texas roots and suggest a Shiner beer, but I’m going to do it anyway.

With Winter now upon us, the ever so delicious Shiner Cheer is available once again. If you can get this, I cannot recommend it enough:

This brew is easily my favorite Shiner seasonal. I’m usually not a fan of sweet brews, but this is an exception. Peaches and roasted pecans are the major players here and they are delicious.

Plus, this is definitely a season full of cheer: a shot at the title and a basketball team off to a great start.

P.S. If you are a current student right now, I hate you so much, you lucky bastards.

The post Friday Roundup: The “One Miiiiiiiiiiillion…” Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

The #1 team in the nation fell, the QB Flavor of the Week Award Heisman Trophy race got another contender, Kansas State has a QB on the cover of SI, the usual sampling of news that can be found in the Roundup below, we got a new sponsor, our server had some major issues (I’ll sleep one of these days), and the Notre Dame campaign is starting to get into full swing.

I’m still firmly of the belief that the bottom line is winning. Style points be damned — just ask Alabama how handy all those style points are right now. However, with the Tide’s loss, the first domino has fallen. With blood now in the water, Kelly has been far more public and open with campaigning for his team. ND’s Director of Football Media Relations, Brian Hardin, has transformed his Twitter feed into the official continuous stream of reasons why ND should play in Miami on January 7th.

Sure, a lot can still happen within these next three weeks; however, to loosely quote Training Day it’s “chess it ain’t checkers”. The board is now wide open for the taking and the Irish are no longer playing quiet defense and simply biding their time. Now is the time to attack on all fronts, fire the verbal salvos, and back it up on the field.

Should Notre Dame beat Wake as expected and college football has yet another hell of a week, the Irish will be primed to not just slide into the #2 spot, but could make voters think about lining their votes up with the computers and place the Irish as the #1 team in the nation. Even should this week stick to the status quo, momentum can build, a few voters can be swayed. That .101 difference between ND and a title berth could continue to shrink.

Needless to say, there is a lot that could happen and only one thing is for certain.

These weeks sure are a hell of a lot better those of a past few years.

The Roundup

Also having a hell of a week, Alabama. I hope you caught the Paul Finebaum show in order to have a healthy dose of schadenfreude. If you missed it, relive the glory.

Need more Bama pain? Fine, enjoy some fans having a rough time dealing with the loss.

And the Aggies celebrate. Thankfully they have done it in gif form. Even LSU Freek got in on the action.

Let’s start the Southern Cal hate a week early, shall we? We will let UCLA lead the way.

It’s ok though, Robot Lane Kiffin will keep the peace. He just loved doing this message.

Here’s something that we can all agree on: MACtion. If you don’t know what this is, you should.

College football is about to set a record. It’s looking to be the best year of offense ever — well, unless you are facing the Irish defense, of course.

Take a moment to remember Declan Sullivan. As much as some hacks love to shove that tragedy in our face, it’s great to see someone do the direct opposite for a change.

In honor of senior day, a bunch of Te’o links. ESPN had a feature, so did the Observer, he did a fantastic interview, and, yeah, don’t forget about that Heisman thing.

Put These Games on Your Radar

#18 USC @ #17 UCLA, 3:05pm, FOX – Be sure to keep an eye on this game. Not just for SOS, but this game will determine Oregon’s opponent in the Pac 12 title game.

#13 Stanford @ #2 Oregon, 8:00pm EST, FOX – This will be the first solid defensive unit that Oregon has faced. Plus, with Oregon suffering loads of injuries on defense, this could be one of the better chances that Oregon has to fall.

#1 Kansas State @ Baylor, 8:00pm, ESPN/WatchESPN – Probably not a lot of danger here for K-State; however, Baylor does have a decent offense (but sadly not much defense). One thing going for us in this game: the SI jinx as Collin Klein is on the cover.

Predictions

Tex

Ok, so I’ve been off, especially when I think there’s going to be a blowout that never happens. Screw it, going to keep calling for one. Wake’s offense is really just that bad. ND will have plenty of time to make something happen.

ND 42 – Wake 3

Biscuit

Leprechauns of course!

Wake Forest played us well last year.  They had a good game plan and executed it well, and it was down to the wire.  But that was at home for them, and ND clearly came out flat-footed.  I don’t expect a similar test this Fall, but it won’t be a blowout either.  (can you tell I’m starting to get tired?  yeah?  well, good on you!) But Our Lady trumps your Deacon any day of the week.  That said, injuries and fatigue could play a role here for ND.

ND Wins 27 – 21

  1 Leprechaun for the Deamon Deacons.  They played us well last year, and will come in fired up for the Irish, and we’ll be a bit tired and hurt.  They could upset.

Bayou

ND 38 – Wake 0

Twibby

Irish 31, Wake Forest 13 (garbage time TD with ND walk on seniors in the game)

Grantland-X

Uhhhh 27-20 Irish. For whatever reason, the home games continue to thrill

Closest to the Pin – Week 10

Twibby and Biscuit were the closest by far. Both had the smallest margin of victory out of all of us. However, Twibby nailed BC’s score perfectly, so I’m giving him the nod this week.

The Beer

It’s winter time (or at least it should be, still Fall here in Texas). It’s time for a good stout. In particular, I’m a huge fan of oatmeal stouts and will definitely be picking up a six-pack when I get off work and start my Thanksgiving vacation. Thus far, I haven’t run into one that I didn’t like; however, much like the pumpkin ale request, I am looking for some suggestions in the comments. Y’all didn’t steer me wrong last time.

Related, oatmeal stouts are an acceptable form of breakfast while on vacation, right?

The post Friday Roundup: The “One Hell of a Week” Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Notre Dame’s case is premised upon the strength and quality of its schedule, its defensive prowess and a head-to-head comparison to the teams currently ranked first (Oregon), second (Kansas State) and, where appropriate, fourth (Alabama). The comparison to Alabama is admittedly flawed, as Notre Dame is undefeated and Alabama is not, having suffered its first, soul- crushing loss on Saturday. Still, Alabama is offered to provide context and contrast. Compared to its peers, the Fighting Irish are clearly the Number One Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) team in the country.

The undersigned has already explained his personal thoughts on ND’s 2012 schedule. So, it bears noting in week eleven that the Irish have thus far turned the table to their advantage and run off an impressive ten (10) wins in a row. To date, ND has played, and defeated four teams in the Top 25: #10 (MSU), #18 (UM), #17 (Stanford), #8 (OK) and will play #18 (USC). The average ranking of ND’s Top 25 competition is, thus, 14.2.

In comparison, Number One ranked Oregon has played or will play #22 (AZ), #23 (Washington), #17 (USC), #13 (Stanford) and #16 (Oregon State), for an average ranking of 18.2. Kansas State, the nation’s Number Two (pun intended), has played or will play #6 (OK), #13 (West Virginia), #14 (Texas Tech), #24 (Oklahoma State) and #15 (Texas), for an average opponent ranking of 14.4, to date. Alabama, the fourth ranked team in this week’s BCS rankings, only plays four ranked opponents and lost to the lowest ranked of the bunch, Texas A&M. PAWWWWWWWWWWWWL!

As a final point, Notre Dame offers its absence of Football Championship Series (FCS) opponents. Of the other undefeated FBS schools, Oregon pads its schedule with Tennessee Tech and K-State tussles with Missouri State. Alabama, for what it’s worth, takes on the always dangerous West Carolina Catamounts. Objectively, Notre Dame, then, plays a schedule with higher-ranked opposition, all of which comes from the top tier of college football. Notre Dame is the ONLY undefeated FBS team that does not play an FCS opponent.

On the defensive side of the ball, Notre Dame easily outstrips its undefeated peers. ND is #1 in “scoring defense,” a metric that tracks “points against,” rating an 11.1. ND is also ranked #8 in total defense, another metric, this one tracking yards allowed per play and per game. Oregon is #30 in scoring defense and #47 in total defense. K-State is #14  scoring defense  and #34  in total defense.  Remember, too, that ND is doing this against a pure FBS schedule

Where Notre Dame can be challenged is on the offensive side of the football, as ND ranks a mere 91. Oregon has the #1 offense while K-State trots out the eighth best offense in the land. But when you drill down on those rankings by examining the defensive rankings of the competition, ND’s 91 doesn’t seem that bad and Oregon’s Number One seems pretty empty, to wit:

Notre Dame has played the #55 (Navy), #68 (Purdue), #11 (UM), #7 (MSU), #17 (Stanford), #38 (Pitt), #118 (Miami), #22  (Oklahoma), #109 (BC) and #4 (BYU) defenses. That’s an average total defense score for ND’s 10 FBS opponents of 44.9.

Kansas State and Oregon defensive opponents are (pun intended) offensive. Oregon’s average opponent ranking is 70.11, having played #60 (Arkansas State), #25 (Fresno State), #119 (Arizona), #84 ( Washington State), #41 (Washington), #30 (Arizona State), #122 (Colorado), #59 (USC) and #89 (California).  K-State’s 69.11 is only marginally better: #118 (Miami), #72 (North Texas), #22 (Oklahoma), #105 (Kansas), #96 (Iowa State), #112 (West Virginia), #19 (Texas Tech), #57 (Oklahoma State) and #21 (TCU).

So, in the only metric where ND falls behind its peers, scoring offense, it has a valid excuse: MUCH higher quality (all FBS), much better (+25 ranking points) opposition.

In conclusion, Notre Dame has gone undefeated through a demonstrably harder schedule. This FACT has not gone unnoticed by the BCS computer polls: ND is ranked #1 in four of six (Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, Dr. Peter Wolfe) and #2 in the other two (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley). It is in the human, subjective polls that Notre Dame loses ground. Accordingly, Notre Dame should be entitled to Declaratory Judgment that it is Number One.

(Author’s note: I could not have written this article without the stats published by cfbstats.com and by Brian Hardin (@NDHardin) over the last day).

The post Declaratory Judgment appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Schedules have been compared. Style points tallied. Tea leaves read.

Throughout all of the these activities though, one thing must not be forgotten: win. Every. Damn. Game.

Despite all of this talk of four possible undefeated teams, the odds of this college football apocalypse actually happening are under 2%. So, much like Matt Barkley winning the Heisman this season, not happening.

And sure, Notre Dame’s schedule looks beyond easy in comparison to the gauntlet they just ran. On paper, it would appear that we have three easy wins, followed by a final test at Southern Cal.

However, college football isn’t played on paper.

All three of those teams are sitting at .500 or below, but all of them would love to crush Irish title hopes. And let’s not forget that Boston College is still on the schedule and they’ve had a great habit of stopping Irish undefeated streaks.

And of course, there is USC. Despite the troubles that they have had this season, after their own title hype died earlier this year, they are far from a pushover.

The Irish simply can’t blink first. They can’t look past any team, even one that lost convincingly to Youngstown State to kick off their season (Mark May must be proud).

However, this Irish squad has done that all season. Kelly has talked all season about not being “infected with success” and Notre Dame will once again have to prove their immunity this Saturday at home after one of the best wins this program has seen in over a decade.

So yes, all the SOS and resume talk is important, but the number one goal for the Irish is simple on their road to the title: Just win, baby.

The Roundup

Law & Order: Pitt. So Pitt’s best offensive weapons just got charged with assault? LOLOLOLOL

Everyone that had this season as BCS or better, plan on collecting your winnings. Because there’s quite a bit of leeway now.

A not so good result from last weekend: Marcus Lattimore. I feel for this kid, especially when they are just simply great human beings. And don’t worry, that video doesn’t have the injury. I refuse to watch it — I’m sure as hell not going to link it.

So just how are spirits at Auburn right now? Here’s your answer.

I’m going to link this without really reading all of it. Just click, you’ll see why.

Need some OU film breakdown? One Foot Down has you covered.

And to all our Loyal Readers out on the East Coast, stay safe out there. Thoughts and prayers are with you as you deal with Hurricane Sandy.

Put These Games on Your Radar

All of the undefeated teams in the title hunt are in action. It’s nice to be seriously scoreboard watching in November.

#1 Alabama @ #5 LSU, 8:00pm EST, CBS – Twibby’s Marquee Matchup of the Week

#24 Oklahoma State @ #2 Kansas State, 8:00pm EST, ABC -Don’t sleep on Okie State. They tend to pull a rabbit out of their hat at least once a season. Also, this line is only at -9 for K-State right now. After their dominating performances, this seems rather low. Upset alert?

#4 Oregon @ #17 USC, 7:00pm, FOX – Another strange line. High powered Oregon by only -8.5? This is Oregon’s first true test of the season as they will finally face a team that has an offense. You know USC is ready to start playing spoiler, especially after a horrid loss last weekend. Oh, and Gus Johnson.

Predictions

Tex

Mark May, you thought Youngstown State was a nightmare? Have fun with Lou after this one.

Irish 49 – Pitt 6

Biscuit

Leprechauns:

Genac This Pitt!  Pitt is in all-out, start from scratch rebuilding mode.  New coaches, new everything.  While last year was ugly that was so much about ND and so little about Pitt.  The boys are pissed about the week prior and take it out on the Panthers.  Genac!

ND Wins 27 – 17

 3 Leprechauns!

Bayou

Pitt stinks on ice. And on grass. ND wins this one 42-17 – Golson has his home coming out party. Pitt’s D cannot stop our running game. Or we lose 13-10 on a 49 yard Pitt field goal with time expiring.

Twibby

Lou Holtz 27, Mark May 10

Grantland-X

This Pitt game prediction is a real wildcard. Uhhh give me 38-10 Irish.

Closest to the Pin Week 8

Grantland finally gets on the board by predicting the largest margin of victory out of all of us, plus having the largest point total for the Irish. Welcome to the club, kid.

Leaderboard

The Beer

Reader’s choice this week. I’ve had a hell of a week and I’m grabbing whatever booze will be by me this weekend.

What are y’all rolling with this weekend?

The post Friday Roundup: The “Just Win, Baby” Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.