If you think having Tommy Rees under center presents questions, try being Temple. Connor Reilly, a junior out of Ft. Polk, Louisiana, will be the least-known quarterback from SEC country the Irish have game-planned against in the last two games. Debate the merits of Rees all you want, ND fan, for Reilly has ZERO GAME EXPERIENCE. That means he has NO STATS. That means the first opponent he gets to face is Louis Nix, III. Connor? You’re a bowl of Cinnamon Toast Crunch. Connor? You’re a bike seat. As of this writing, Vegas has the Irish as 29.5 point favorites.

The Owls run a pro spread offense and utilize a 4-3 defense. 2012 was a lost season for the Owls, who were deprived of a twelfth game, and the chance for a fifth win (they finished 4-7) by conference realignment. Starting the season at 2-0 with wins over South Florida and Connecticut, Temple was mauled as it went through the slaughterhouse that is Rutgers-Pittsburgh-Louisville-Cincinnati, managing just 54 points and giving up 161 points over the four games. Temple’s got a ton of big bodies on the O-line, but right tackle seems to be the big question mark for them in the trenches. Irish fans should expect a big day from their defensive ends, with Stephone Tuitt, in particular, looking to make an early statement in this game.

Temple’s defense is undersized relative to the Irish and should have a world of problems contending with the likes of Niklas and Daniels and Jones and Notre Dame’s O-line.

Interestingly, there are no tropical systems threatening New Orleans this year, so the Bayou Barometer is NOT in play for this game. Still, it’s a true home game, so visions of USF are dancing around my head. To calm them, I watched this:

To vanquish them, I watched this:

Long story short, Irish fans, this should be a thumping by Notre Dame. Prediction: 63-14.

The post Temple Preview: Reesus Cleans House appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Another annual installment of the post that made everyone LOVE dancing Leprechauns! AWWWWW YEEEEEEEEAH! Once again I’ll be picking every game before we’ve even seen one, my stellar results will WOW you (one way or another) and we’ll all get to enjoy the leprechaun jig. Sweetness.

My records since we got started are not all that amazing. I’d call it spots of brilliance with some dirt…a little up and down. But whatever, I’m trying to predict each game prior to seeing one! And it’s fun. And the leprechauns RULE. To wit:

07: I said 8-4 with a lean towards 7-5. We were the worst. At least I was a bit pessimistic, but not great. WHOOPS.
08: I said 7-5 with a strong lean to 6-6. Unfortunately I was pretty close. GOOD.
09: Said 10-2. WHOOPS.
10: I said 8-4 with a lean towards 7-5 I pretty much nailed it. GOOD.
11: Good Lord I crushed ’11:

“So I am going with 11-1 as our upside, 10-2 as likely, and 9-3 as our downside this year. BUT, we can win every game. If we get the bounces and we can stay healthy, this is a BCS team. Could be a MNC game team. If all hell breaks loose, we dont get the bounces, we get hurt in key areas, and we slip again on a fake FG in overtime, we finish 8-4.”

I was right about the team, wrong about the bounces big time. GOOD.
12: The exact opposite of ’11. I thought we’d be good but feared the rough schedule and said 8-4, but last year we got ALL the bounces and pleasantly over-performed. WHOOPS

Since I missed it last year, I should be good this year? I think? Anyway…

A reminder of the rating system: THE DANCING LEPRECHAUNS! Here’s the Scale:

This is just as likely to be wrong as it is to be right (aka the BadKermit Effect)

I’ve got a good feeling, but am leaving myself some wiggle room

This is a lock, I am a genius, I cannot be wrong.

So…off we go!

Temple

No more slow starts for Notre Dame. Brian Kelly has this team on a program, and it’s working. 3 years ago ANY first game opponent made me nervous. Now, no more. I will be at this game as well, and the insane home opener 2 years ago sucked up any bad mojo for games at which I am in attendance for about a bajillion years. WHOMPING.

ND Wins 45-6

Supremely confident that BK has this team ready for the opener.

Skunkbears

The terror for ND that was Denard Robinson is over. Shoelaceless is gone, and super experienced and huge ND defensive line across from him. And, not Denard. Repeat, NOT DENARD. There will be no more Skunkbear Antics that give Notre Dame fans insane fits. Yeah, we took Shoelaceless down behind Manti Teo’s 38 interceptions last year, but that was the one time where Denard didn’t make crazy things happen to help ND pull defeat from the jaws of victory. NO MORE. Irish Chocolate and the D will have this thing super low scoring, and while our O will still be finding an identity, it will be enough.

ND Wins 17-10

Two dancers because it’s effing Skunkbears. But feeling good about a win in a slugfest.

Purdue

Aw man, Purdon’t again? It’s just so borzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. The joke never gets old, because it’s true. They have the 3rd or 5th biggest drum in the world, a train, and the most boring football program in Amerizzzzzzzzz.

CAFFEINE! Must. Stay. Awake.

Purdue hasn’t made much progress despite giving us a game last year, and Hope doesn’t spring eternal. While I like the hire, it’s a pretty legit rebuild in Laughayette. I don’t see much improving for the SnoreMakers this year, and a W over ND just isn’t in the cards against this defense. The ND offense starts to click in Game 3, and ND runs away with this one, literally.

ND Wins 34-9

The Irish are looking good, off to a strong 3-0 start.

Michigan State

There will be no flag-planting for MSU. With the loss of their entire offense (Bell) and the lack of a clear answer at QB, MSU will rely on a pretty legit defense (despite the loss of Gholston). So you’ll have 2 really solid defenses lining up, and 2 less-great offenses. But ND has an edge in defensive talent with the stellar front line, and an edge on offense due to skill positions and experience at QB. MSU always comes out gunning for the Irish, and this one is Home where, for some reason, the Spartans always play better. I think this will be a nail-biter, as we can’t always play great. ND eeks it out though….

ND Wins 17-14

So up in the air. One Dancer. But we should win this game.

Oklahoma

The Sooners travel to South Bend seeking revenge for a game that no one, including me, predicted. We WHOMPED them in their own house, and revenge will be on their minds. Unfortunately for the Sooners, easier said than done. Their defensive line pretty much graduated, though it wasn’t great. Defense will be a huge question mark, as will QB after 40th year senior Jones finally graduated. Belldozer is big but can’t throw, and the other 2 QBs have thrown pretty much never as well. So a bad defense that lost a lot of experience, and an offense with a lot of talent but no clear answer at QB. Hmmmmm….should be pretty clear-cut right? I don’t think so.

Stoops is a damn good coach, and OK stocks talent. They will sort the offense out by this point in the season, and the talent on the defensive line was experienced but not top-performing. It’s going to be a bruiser. I think ND should be able to win over all, but I’m not super confident.

ND Wins 24 – 17

1 Leprechaun. Calling a win, but this could go either way.

Arizona State

Despite a relatively tough schedule compared to those teams scheduling High School squads, I have ND running 5-0 into the home-game-thats-not-at-home barnstormer at neutral site. Finally, ND has won the uniform battle. But unfortunately, I have to find a hiccup, unexpected loss in the season and I think this is it. ND will be coming off a high with a big, emotional win over OK at home. That game will be a battle, and we could come out a bit dinged up. And every team, at some point, gets caught flat. While ASU doesn’t have the most talent we’ll see, they have a pretty darn good coach and a legit QB in Taylor, and it’ll be a unique opponent for Notre Dame.

ND Drops one to go to 5-1, 24-21.

Just the 1. Obviously calling this out of nowhere.

Southern Cal

Sweet, sweet victory in the Coliseum last year, and after what felt like 40 years in a drought versus U$C and their cheaters, it finally feels like Notre Dame has the edge here again. Sanctions, poo-poo’d a few years ago by SC fans, and the hiring of freaking Lane Kiffin helped push things along in favor of the Irish. But the Trogans aren’t pushovers by any stretch. Still stocked with talent, and still hating Notre Dame every step of the way.

After a lackluster year where they turned the ball over non-stop, and never seemed to really gel as a team, USC should be ready for the Irish to WHOMP. But it won’t be that easy. New QB but a really talented group, with Lee to throw to. A pretty stout defense, especially up front. Not loving how this game feels this far in advance, but ND isn’t going to allow USC to claw their way back into the series. It’s a tight one though, a grinder with little offense for either side…

ND Wins 13-10

Not sure what to expect here. Fully believe that Kiffin sucks. But it’s USC.

Air Force

The lesser of the 2 academies we often play is always a challenge with the Triple Option, and they keep it interesting with special twists and gimmicks week to week. Smaller, but really good at what they do, Air Force racks up serious yardage with Option play, but can’t match up physically. It’ll be a bit of an adjustment for Notre Dame’s stellar defense, and I could see a decent game til half time, but Notre Dame will push through it and pull away in the 2nd half. Air Force just can’t keep up with the size, speed and depth of Notre Dame.

ND wins 37 – 17

3 Leprechauns for the pilots. (And thanks so much for your amazing service to the US of A)

Navy

2 weeks in a row of Option Ball! Well, couldn’t schedule it better, that’s for sure. ND will have 2 full weeks of option preparation before facing Navy this season, and it will help. Navy came on in ND’s down years and this became a game. Last season, things finally (FINALLY!) seemed back to normal with ND really enforcing their will on the men in the middle of the ship. Anchors may be away, but the Irish aren’t. They’re here, and ready to play. No love for the Navy offense this week as the Irish force multiple turnovers and hold Navy to less than 200 yards rushing for the only time all season. While Air Force gives ND a bit of a fit in the first half the week before, this one is in the bag by the time the band takes the field.

ND Wins 30 – 10

3 Leprechauns! No more Navy heriocs when it comes to the Irish. Save it for the battlefield fellas. (And thank you so much for your service, you guys rule)

Pitt

Genac this! As always!

Pitt’s another program that (finally) made a good hire in Chryst. Dude knows what he is doing and while Pitt will never again be a powerhouse, they’ll be competitive. They need to figure out the QB position, but they have a stable of good receivers and a couple raw but talented QBs duking it out. This was the trap game last year that is ASU for us this year. But I don’t think the Irish will let it happen again.

It’s a long season and I could see the Irish needing to rest up and heal up a bit in the 2nd half of the season, but Air Force and Navy should allow for that in the 2nd halves of those games. Pitt won’t sneak up this year.

ND Wins 24-17

2 Leprechauns. Not a landslide, and Pitt always plays their best against us.

BYU

The hornblowers simply can’t match up against Notre Dame’s red-zone defense. They will move the ball but points will be hard to come by. It’s not a gimme by any stretch but we should handle the 1 percenters.

ND Wins 26-17

1 Leprechaun for BYU. Could be one of those that make us nervous

Stanford

The damn tree.

Frankly, I’m impressed by what the post-Harbaugh staff has been able to accomplish at Stanford. Keeping recruiting going, capitalizing on the overall brand of Stanford, and sticking to a plan and executing it well. Last year’s game was one for the ages and I STILL can’t believe we held them. And yes, WE DID FREAKING HOLD THEM. Unbelievable! Still fired up about it!

But this year, Stanford will be a more complete team than Notre Dame. Both defenses will be tough, but the Tree will bring a bit more offensive firepower to the table. They’ll be playing for a BCS berth, so this is pretty much a playoff game. A 1-loss ND team against an undefeated or 1-loss Stanford team? This has BIG GAME written all over it.

Unfortunately, we won’t get those bounces this year. We can’t always get them, and last year we got plenty (after giving them ALL away the year prior). Stanford and ND will be a battle to remember. It will have national implications, and the two ‘smart football schools’ will go at it toe-to-toe. The Irish will have a chance to win it, but I see the Tree pulling this one out in some freakish way, much like ND last year.

ND Loses 24-21

1 Leprechaun – waaaaay up in the air.

Summary

Feeling like a solid 10-2 season for the Irish up front but there’s a high beta this season. 6 games I feel good about but there are a lot of 1-Dancers in here, which means we could have some hiccups along the way. I do tend to correct down so I could see 9-3 in our future as well.

And I think the entire season hinges on whether Tommy Rees 1 or Tommy Rees 2 shows up. If we have a solid, reliable game-manager in Tommy we will be 10-2 as predicted, maybe 11-1. Few errors, make the right reads, protect the ball Tommy leads to a really good BCS season for Notre Dame. If Turnover Tommy or Kick The Cop Tommy comes back? Geez, I don’t even want to think about it, but rather than dancing the leprechauns will be vomiting. 10-2 or 9-3 quickly becomes a middling 7-5 if that happens, but I don’t think it will. We have enough offensive weapons in the backfield and slot to keep some of the pressure off Tommy early in the season, and we ease into the schedule with Temple. The Big Tweleven isn’t particularly scary and they’re a big portion of the early schedule. I think Tommy will settle in, and 10-2 is a realistic result, keeping Irish Eyes smiling in ’13. BUT SCREW IT, LET’S WIN ‘EM ALL!

DANCE LEPRECHAUNS DANCE!!!

The post Game by Game Predictions ’13: Leprechauns’ Revenge appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Since today is a day for predictions here at HLS, let’s try to predict what shade of yellow narratives our friends in the press will conjure about us all too soon.

2013 Will be the Season When the Luck Runs Out for the Irish

Has any college football program ever built a less convincing 12-0 regular season?  The two highly improbable overtime victories were just part of comic opera that saw the Irish stumble and fumble their way to 12 wins that could have gone either way up to the very last second.  It is safe to say that Notre Dame’s much-vaunted 12-0 could just as easily have been 0-12.  And that poses a troubling question: Who exactly helped the Irish in the critical moments when they “miraculously” fell into specious victory after specious victory?  While the highly superstitious (and some would say, religiously fanatical) Notre Dame fan base points to a discredited former entity known as god, sources within several conferences are 80% certain that the luck of the Irish really is green – as in greenbacks.  As in there will soon be a push to investigate not just the patently bribed officials from the Stanford and Pittsburgh games, but all the referees, umpires, linesmen, and judges, many of whom are known either to have family in the State of Indiana, or to have actually stayed at hotels in or near South Bend itself.

Irish Need to Shake off Demons before they Shake Down Thunder

After a shaky 12-1 season, plagued by scandal after scandal, Notre Dame needs to place the focus back on the football field if the Irish hope to do better than their usual 6-6 and meaningless bowl appearance.  The perjurious Heisman campaign built on a non-existent dead woman (about whom Notre Dame’s administration has shown scant concern) is as nothing compared to the massive cheating scandal that felled the only player with any talent on their offense, quarterback Everett Golson.  The unseemly haste with which the administration sacrificed Golson makes it clear that the plagiarism, ghost test-takers, and handing out of answer sheets to football players before exams, goes much deeper than just this individual, according to a highly placed source who is 80% certain the entire team is involved.

Internal Strife at Notre Dame Likely to Undermine Irish Season

Notre Dame football may have returned to glory last year, with an undefeated regular season and an appearance in the national championship game; but the notoriously fickle (and some would say, religiously fanatical) Irish alumni have already written Brian Kelly’s obituary.  It’s not just that he conducted a half-year-long affair with the Philadelphia Eagles – a flirtation that began before Notre Dame’s plane even touched down in Dublin.  It’s that Kelly, the scion of a famously corrupt Boston political dynasty, has spent more time recruiting cronies inside the Notre Dame administration than he has recruiting mediocre-to-poor high school players.  What is the purpose of all of Kelly’s Machiavellian machinations within the gilded administration building: He wants a new stadium – one big enough and flashy enough to match his outsized ego.  Knute Rockne’s push to get the intransigent and old fashioned alumni of his day to allow the construction of the very stadium now in danger drove Rock to an early grave.  Now the grandsons and great-grandsons of the Judases of 1930 are sharpening their knives for Kelly who, though successful on the field, has committed the Cardinal Sin at Notre Dame: he has threatened the field itself.

In the Emerald City of Irish Football, Who’s the Phony Wizard?

Shakespeare had some disparaging things to say about lawyers, but at Notre Dame one lawyer is essential to the Irish taking the field.  How is it that star quarterback and Irish darling Tommy Rees managed to avoid an almost certain grand jury indictment for attempted murder of a police officer?  How is it that a century-old contract to play Michigan suddenly developed an escape clause that just happens to benefit Notre Dame to the tune of tens of millions of dollars in lost revenue for Michigan?  How is it that a football powerhouse can get away with robbing a talented young scholar-athlete, just beginning his college career, of an entire year of eligibility, just because he forgot to dot an “i” and cross a “t” on a meaningless form letter?  Meet Jack Swarbrick, the man who wields the law like a shillelagh.  The amazing Mr. Swarbrick is the “wizard” behind the curtain in each of these underhanded – though technically legal – maneuvers to keep a gasping Notre Dame in the national conversation for yet another year.  But sources close to a bar association are 80% certain that Swarbrick isn’t even a lawyer, since he admitted in the press conference where he whitewashed Notre Dame’s shameless attempt to capitalize on the death of a fictional California woman, that he’s ‘not allowed to practice law anymore’.  An uncharacteristic slip for the cagey Swarbrick.

Notre Dame Gives Underage Players Alcohol  Every Week

In violation of State, Federal, International, and most important, NCAA law, the University of Notre Dame, founded and maintained by a secretive cult of foreign priests, reportedly gives wine to football players under the age of 21 at least once a week.  A source from the Soviet-sounding “Notre Dame Campus Ministry” reports that he’s 100% certain that any football player or student of the Catholic faith can be plied with wine daily, and that this occurs on a massive scale in student dormitories every Sunday night.  The source wanted very much to be named in this article, but the authors prefer to keep his name anonymous so that he can avoid retribution by the Notre Dame alumni who many believe to be religious fanatics.

Irish Drop Michigan in order to Add Perennial Creampuffs Florida State and Virginia Tech

Dangerously Overweight Squirrels Cause Many to Question Notre Dame’s Commitment to Proper Rodent Care

 How Long Will Notre Dame be Allowed to Exploit Downtrodden and Poverty-Stricken Irish Americans with Racist Leprechaun Mascot?

And just you wait – it’s only a matter of time before one of these sports writers discovers the unspeakable scandal that we’ve been covering up and keeping quiet for a very long time now…

Notre Dame Keeps Physically Disabled Bell Ringer Imprisoned in Church Tower

EFS CSC

The post Good Fridays w/Padre: Scandal Us appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Super Cheesy photo of MSU’s Top RB

Looking at Football Outsiders’ stats can help us get a decent grasp of how the two teams have fared thus far this season, and perhaps a little insight into what to expect Saturday, without the vast biases of the polls. If you need a reminder on FEI, check out their site, but it’s essentially an opponent-adjusted efficiency index (eg how well you move the ball and how well you stop others from moving the ball). For stat-heads/nerds, it’s awesome.

The current rankings, linked above, largely reflect the polls except for a few notable exceptions. USC is down at #7, and Notre Dame ranks ahead of MSU.

That’s right. ND is at 9 and MSU 11. Granted, that’s really close, but ND ‘moving up’ that far shows one thing at this point: ND and MSU are a lot closer in performance to date than the human polls seem to imply.

ND’s high ranking is driven by Offensive Efficiency, with a rank of 16. MSU, in contrast, is all the way down at 41. However, on Defense, MSU is pretty dominant, with a DE Rank of 3. 3! These guys play some solid D. ND is a bit lower on the Defensive Ranking, 25th in the country. Still, not at all bad, but not currently a Top 5 D either.

Other factors that impact the overall rank are SOS to date (ND ranks 9th and MSU 52nd) and Field Position Rank (ND at 42 and MSU at 54). So ultimately this battle will come down to the ND Offense vs the MSU D. Can ND effectively move the ball against such a stout front 7? Can EG learn what he needs to learn in the next 3 days to make that leap Coach Kelly is looking for? Of course our D will have to do a good job containing the MSU running game and this season’s best opponent Running Back, but I think the test is really on the offensive side of the ball.

While the line of MSU -6 is probably not that far off given that home field is usually a 3 point dealio, ND has a legitimate chance to win this game if BK and Martin can find a way to make the running game work while keeping Golson comfortable with the passing plan of attack. I am somewhat surprised at how confident the pundits/experts are when declaring this a clear MSU win given how similar the two teams appear on paper.

I think on Saturday they’ll see that this is a pretty even match-up.

The post ND – MSU Will Be a Battle appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

My records of late:

07: My inaugural year, was ugly. I said 8-4 with a lean towards 7-5. We all know how that turned out.
08: I said 7-5 with a strong lean to 6-6. Pretty good. Sad that I was right, but I was right.
09: Said 10-2. Was very wrong. Chaz got fired, I didn’t.
10: I said 8-4 with a lean towards 7-5 (notice I never lean ‘up’? This is an issue) and I had it pretty much right.
11: Good Lord. Please read what I wrote last season:

“So I am going with 11-1 as our upside, 10-2 as likely, and 9-3 as our downside this year. BUT, we can win every game. If we get the bounces and we can stay healthy, this is a BCS team. Could be a MNC game team.

If all hell breaks loose, we dont get the bounces, we get hurt in key areas, and we slip again on a fake FG in overtime, we finish 8-4.”

HOLY GEEZ IT WAS THE LATTER IN SPADES. Regardless, not a great year.

A reminder of the rating system: THE DANCING LEPRECHAUNS! Here’s the Scale:

This is just as likely to be wrong as it is to be right (aka the BadKermit Effect)

I’ve got a good feeling, but am leaving myself some wiggle room

This is a lock, I am a genius, I cannot be wrong.

Navy

Against our starting Front 7, and a Navy team that has no air game, the midshipmen’s best chance here is that they are used to getting up really, really early. Which means that playing in Dublin will feel a little more normal for them. I’m not discounting the losses they handed us a few years back, but they’re rebuilding, and ND is loaded against the run on D. And while our Offense has holes, I think Kelly has figured this one out. I expect a close first half, with ND pulling away in the 2nd.

ND Wins 31-13

  The time zone thing is what keeps this a 2-Dancer.

Purzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Wait, what happened? Oh yeah, we’re playing the most boring program in America. I can’t say the name, because it puts me to sleep, immediately, Saying that word is like Ambien on Steroids Drinking Horse Tranquilizers. Watch. Purduzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

See?

Anyway, the SimmerCreators are a mess again this year, and should be an easy romp for ND. Once again, the only thing that gives me pause is the time zone change. The boys from Sleep Lafayette will have had a nice easy game at home against Eastern Kentucky and we’ll be traveling back from the other side of the world. But this is a team that we should absolutely HANDLE. If that’s not the case, then forget about the murderer’s row that follows, we’ll drop ’em all. And I don’t think we’re there, so we’ll beat Purzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…

We’ll beat ’em, but it’s not going to look great because of the fatigue.

ND Wins 21-17

Again, travel and time zones make this a 2-Leprechaun rating.

Michigan State

I was pleased to call a W against MSU last year, and I see it again this year. This is a team redefining its offense with the loss of Cousins. And while we are also building our O, and the MSU defense is also strong, we have a stronger supporting cast around our QB (whomever it shall be) and a stronger front 7. MSU would typically take this opportunity to jam some shifty RB up our throats a thousand times for 5 yards each. But now that RB has to meet the likes of Nix, Tuitt and KLM. #NotHappening

ND Wins a Grinder 17-13

Despite what I think is a pretty strong case to be made in terms of depth chart, etc, I’m leary of this game due to fatigue. We play 2 real games to start, with one half a world away. One Dancer.

Michigan

I was so sure we were going to crush the skunkbears last year. And at half time, it was in the bag. In the 3rd quarter it was in the bag. In the…nevermind, it still sucks too bad to go there. Regardless, Denard has had ND’s number. He can’t pass for shite, but man he can get some amazing bounces and our DBs sure can make his receivers look amazing by completely blowing coverage. And with the injuries and lack of depth at CB this Fall, I am not counting on guys staying covered while Denard runs for his life. In the interest of not being a homer, we’re probably losing to Denard again. DAMMIT I HATE IT I HATE IT I HATE IT. But this is not a rah rah column. I believe we can beat them, we SHOULD BE UNDEFEATED VS DENARD AHHHHHHH. But we’re not. This should be a really tight game – ND can stuff the run, but Denard is so damn shifty. The UM D was much improved last year, and will be good this year. Both offenses will likely struggle. But UM has experience under center, and a much lighter schedule the two weeks before after opening against Bama. I can’t even bear it, but I’m gonna say it:

ND Freaking Drops Another to FREAKING MICHIGAN 24-20

So up in the air. One Dancer. But we can easily take this game.

Side Note: BE SURE TO BID ON THE MICHIGAN TIX! GO TO THE GAME AND RAISE MONEY FOR CHARITY!

Miami

Say it with me: WE. ARE. M. D. WE. ARE. M. D.

Off to Chicago, Soldier Field, and the “Our Helmets are Uglier than the Ugliest of Last Year” Bowl.   Joy.

The talk will be all about the hideous uniforms, which is a shame, because the Shamrock Series, and the players, deserve better.  Miami doesn’t, however, and MND will trounce them. 

ND Wins 28 – 10

  Feel really good about this game.  3 Dancing Leprechauns!

Stanford

I will be in town for this game. I don’t lose. Unless there are 2 lightning storms and we fumble 5,000 times in the red zone. Okay, then I lose. But anyway, we won’t lose. I’ll be there, I’ll be drunk, it will be glorious.

Last year, I did not fear Andrew Luck. I was foolish to not fear him. And I actually really like the staff over there – they do some good things and have done a great job of continuing Harbaugh’s winning ways without being, you know, dicks. But the holes are too big this year. ND hasn’t had a QB in a while, and we hung in last year. They had Andrew Freaking Luck, and the game wasn’t a blowout. We turn the tides among the smart boys this year. But it’s a barn burner, and it’s gonna be close.

ND Wins 14-10

Just the 1.

BYU

Independence and belief in a book are where the similarities end, on and off the field. This won’t be close.

ND Wins 45-16

Just the 3.

Oklahoma

Stoops is back. There are a lot of injuries. But this game happens late enough where the Sooners should be able to get their depth chart figured out, and young guys will have more experience. This is, also, the #4 team in the country pre-season. This is, also, in Norman. ND will also be at the end of a pretty long grind, though the 2nd half against BYU will be a decent rest to add to the 4 hour long nap we all take when we play Purzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Anyway, if this were at home, I’d paint a different picture. But assuming Rees isn’t the QB, this will be a first-season starter in a big, hostile environment. This will be a top 15 opponent for sure (though we will also be ranked), and it will be an electric atmosphere. I think it’s a bit much for the team this Fall. But we perform admirably and don’t slide much in the polls.

ND Drops Another 34 – 21

2 Leprechauns for the Sooners.

Side Note: BE SURE TO BID ON THE OKLAHOMA TIX! GO TO THE GAME AND RAISE MONEY FOR CHARITY!

Pitt

Genac This Pitt!  Pitt is in all-out, start from scratch rebuilding mode.  New coaches, new everything.  While last year was ugly that was so much about ND and so little about Pitt.  The boys are pissed about the week prior and take it out on the Panthers.  Genac!

ND Wins 27 – 17

 3 Leprechauns!

BC

BC and their HC Spaz-man are in a similar spot, in start from scratch rebuilding mode.  This one will be ugly by the 2nd half.

ND Wins 37-9

3 Leprechauns!

<strong>Wake Forest</strong>

Wake Forest played us well last year.  They had a good game plan and executed it well, and it was down to the wire.  But that was at home for them, and ND clearly came out flat-footed.  I don’t expect a similar test this Fall, but it won’t be a blowout either.  (can you tell I’m starting to get tired?  yeah?  well, good on you!) But Our Lady trumps your Deacon any day of the week.  That said, injuries and fatigue could play a role here for ND.

ND Wins 27 – 21

  1 Leprechaun for the Deamon Deacons.  They played us well last year, and will come in fired up for the Irish, and we’ll be a bit tired and hurt.  They could upset. 

USC

We all know the story of the condoms Trojans Trogans.  Sanctions.  Hire the shadiest, least successful ‘successful’ coach out there, hit the precipice, manage through it somehow, and come out really strong.  The big secret is that the sanctions don’t really start hurting SC until next season, but with their recruiting they’ll weather it pretty well.  Regardless, this Fall they are pretty strong.  While they don’t have quite the dominance in the trenches and the backfield, they have a hell of a passing game with 2 of the best in the country at wideout, and a lights out QB.  Given that the strength of the ND D is against the run, this isn’t a great matchup for us.  And their D, per usual, will give our offense fits.  I don’t know that Away, against this pass-focused offense, is our time to beat Southern Cal.  In 2013, we will be poised to knock them off, but I have to give the pre-season #1 the nod here. 
 

ND Loses 27-14

2 Leprechauns – it’s not a lock against us, but it’s an uphill climb.

Summary

Straight up I am calling for 9-3, but the confidence weights as indicated by the Leprechauns (DANCING!) shows that I’m not very confident in that number.  Typically I would call that a 9-3 with a lean down, but I could see 6-6 here for ND this year.  It’s a high beta year, and that’s assuming that we’ve gotten past all of our amazing ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.   Because of that, I’m going 8-4 with no lean either way.  The uncertainty has me giving away an entire game, but I’m okay with that.  I have a few 3-Lepre-W’s in there, but there are a few that are less certain – due to travel, fatigue, or just an opponent that I’m not sure about.

8-4 isn’t a disaster against the #1 SOS in the country, but it wouldn’t tell us that we’re headed in the right direction either.  Coach Kelly and the boys need to prove me wrong for me to be ready for a MNC run in ’13 – let’s get to 9-3 boys, and it’ll be a successful year.  Anything above that is GRA-VY. 

Now please don’t poo poo me for my realism/lack of fandom.  I, of course, believe fully that we will RISE AND STRIKE AND WIN OVER ALL!   DANCE LEPRECHAUNS DANCE!!!

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Last year I was pretty good. I called 7-5 and was right on track into BC. In fact, I was 9 for 9 going into BC. I called the losses to MSU, UNC and Pitt. That’s where I got lost. I had thought that we’d drop 1 of 2 to Pitt/BC, and never imagined we’d lose both, and lose to Syracuse too. F-ing SYRACUSE. I digress…

Anyway, I thought we’d be 7-5, so I wasn’t too bad. This year, I’m going to give myself a similar margin of error (why, how nice of me), but I’m hoping for a game on the positive rather than 1 on the negative.

Quick note on the Confidence Scale again:

This is just as likely to be wrong as it is to be right (aka the BadKermit Effect)

I’ve got a good feeling, but am leaving myself some wiggle room

This is a lock, I am a genius, I cannot be wrong.

Week 1 – Nevada

Nevada comes to town with their pistoles, but I come to town with my many beers, and this will be an Irish victory. Colin Copernicus will, no doubt, cause the Irish fits early on along with his strong supporting RB crew. But ND’s young, athletic defense will keep the ground game in check, and will take advantage of mistakes in the passing game to create good field position for the Irish O. While I’d love to say that the O would just roll right over the under-sized Nevada D-Line, I’ll believe it when I see it. Instead, I think we’ll see some decent running numbers, and a freaking explosion of passing yards to put up big points.

ND Wins: 35 – 17

2 Dancing leprechauns because it’s the first game of the year and Nevada freaking scares me with their pistoles.

Week 2 – @ Skunkbears (AND THEY SUCK!)

Skunkbear fans are overly optimistic this year – and not surprising after a horrid 3-9 finish. I know what this is like – it can only get better, right? Nope. Frosh QB = struggles, especially early in the year. Granted, Michigan (SUCKS) is playing 3 High School JV squads to get some practice in early in the year, so Noodle Arms may adapt pretty quickly, but I still expect their offense to struggle a lot.

My guess is that RichDick will try to pound the ball into ND with Minor to try to open up the scramble and the pass for Spindle Arms. It won’t work though. ND will give UM (sucks) the pass, trusting on our stellar DBs to cover man-to-man much of the day, and will stack the box to stop the run. Ian Williams will re-earn his strips in this game, clogging the middle and causing fits for Minor.

On offense, ND will shred a relatively weak Michigan (sucks) defensive backfield through the air. Expect a career day for Tate, while Ragone and Rudolph rack up yards over the middle as well.

ND Wins – 31 – 20

Wild card here is the UM (sucks) Oline vs ND Dline. I don’t think it will be a problem, but it could be.

Week 3 – MSU

Dantonio and the boys come back to ND feeling like it’s Spartan Stadium South. It’s about freaking time for that trend to end. The loss of 99.9% of their offensive production in the form of never-gonna-play-in-the-NFL-Javon-Ringer helps ND, though the ‘loss’ of Hoyer doesn’t really do much. I actually expect improvement at the QB position for MSU this year. Scary thing about MSU is that they bring back pretty much everyone else from a solid 2008 squad. Overall, expect a formidable opponent in MSU, but one that will need to find its way on the offensive side of the ball.

This will be the first big test for the ND offense this season. MSU returns most of the D, and they held ND in check for most of the game last year. A few turnovers at unfortunate times certainly hurt ND, but MSU didn’t make it easy on us either. I expect a similar battle this year in this matchup, though I do expect ND to find a rhythm and to avoid those costly mistakes (they were so so so bad, I don’t know how we could even replicate that if we tried).

ND’s defensive strategy is tougher to guess, as it will largely depend on who emerges in the leadership role for the MSU offense. Will it be the new QB (still TBD) or the new running back (largely looking like by-committee at this point)? I would guess that Dantonio would bring pretty balanced attack, and ND will have to play solid balanced D as well.

ND Loses: 21 – 24

This is a game I feel could be tough for ND, given the depth and talent in MSU’s D. But I’m not confident in the pick at all, hence the 1 dancing leprechaun. I’d feel a lot more confident if I knew what the offense would look like, and if MSU hadn’t owned ND for like 9 years at ND stadium lately I’d probably tilt this in ND’s favor. In reality, I think ND will drop 1 game out of MSU and Stanford, and I think it’s more likely to be MSU. Dantonio is a decent coach, and they’ve owned us lately. I hate calling this a loss, but it’s here or Stanford (I don’t see us winning out, sorry folks). BUT, this game is winnable. VERY winnable. If the MSU offense doesn’t come together, or if the ND defense puts together a really solid performance, this is an ND victory. It’s a toss-up!!!

Week 4 – @ Purdue

My Prediction? Nap time.

Purdue is so god-awfully boring I can’t even handle it. They lost everyone, and they have a new coach. ND will destroy Purdue, while I catch up on some serious ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ’s.

ND Wins: 38 – 13

The real over-under here should be # of people that fall asleep in the stadium once the Big Drum is rolled out. No matter how much excitement ND brings to a game, Purdue’s black hole of excitement death will end it all.

Week 5 – Washington

Washington can finally put the Ty Era behind them. We know how this feels, and we know the Huskies are feeling great. They’re fired up to have someone with a pulse running their program, and The Sark is a good, quality hire. However, you don’t go from 0fer to beating ND in a single season. Having Jake Locker at QB does not a team make.

ND will move the ball almost at will against an under-sized and slower defense, and while Washington will likely give the Irish D fits here and there with the athletic Locker under center, they’ll never muster much of a threat.

ND Wins: 38 – 14

Week 6 – BYE

ND will not lose this week. Guaranteed.

Week 7 – Southern Cal

I am predicting a very close, evenly matched game here. To be honest, that doesn’t make a lot of sense given that we barely moved the ball last year against USC, and they’re reloading (not at ALL rebuilding). The ND offense will once again be challenged to move the ball, but a revamped run game will force the Trojans to respect the run, opening up passing lanes for Tate, Floyd, Rudolph and Ragone. ND WILL move the ball well, and put points on the board.

The ND defense will have its hands full with a well-balanced attack. Despite being a first year starter (whoever it is), the USC QB will have half a season under his belt, and a lot of experience around him. USC will move the ball as well, and will put up points.

The Irish have finally closed the talent gap, and the rivalry is renewed in this game. But ND doesn’t have it all pulled together yet. That will be 2010.

ND Loses: 27 – 21

Man, predicting losses suuuuuuucks. We’ll get ’em next year though boys. And I refuse to call this a 3-leprechaun for USC. At home, and with some momentum, ND has a shot at this one. A legit shot.

Week 8 – BC

Finally, this series starts getting back on track with how it SHOULD be with an ND whipping of BC in South Bend. BC is falling apart. Last year they featured a team of 96 5th year seniors, and all of those dudes now have kids and work as accountants. The remaining few guys they had left have either tragically been pushed out of action, or left due to grades. Heck, even the coach bailed seeing what he’d be facing.

BC will be a mess this year, and ND will capitalize. The ND offense will move the ball well. Jimmy won’t shoot himself in the foot over and over this time and around, and the ND defense will squash any attack from the weak-as-all-hell BC ‘offense’.

ND Wins: 42 – 10

This is a beatdown, a deserved one, and I can’t wait to see it.

Weak 9 – Washingtons State

No, I didn’t misspell ‘Week’ above. This IS “Weak 9”, because this game is just weak in every way. It’s a boring matchup, in the middle of freaking Texas (home game my @$$) against a weak program and it’s weak weak weak. I can’t believe the season hasn’t started and I’m already not interested in a game. This is scheduling at its worst folks.

Anyway, sorry: besides predicting a weak-ass game, I predict a solid ND win. WSU has been down, and will continue to be down.

ND Wins: 34 – 9

And the 9 is a missed extra point + a FG, btw.

Week 10 – Navy

Post-USC, ND will face 3 decent squads. Navy is one of them, and the Irish will finish up the FOREVER home stand with the Midshipmen. I know, I know, it’s Navy. But they were a Bowl team a year ago, and they’re good at what they do. And I believe they play ND with more fight, more passion, than they play Army or Air Force. Navy comes into this game to PLAY.

The good thing is that ND will handle Navy. The ND D last year did an amazing job of shutting down the Navy option attack. That is, when they decided to actually PLAY defense. The 4th quarter was a mess. Given the success of the air attack against ND last year, I expect there to be a bit more of a balance in their plan this year (still super run heavy though – think 90/10 rather 99/1 run/pass). ND will play great assignment football though, and won’t quit this time around, and will put a stop to the Navy attack.

The offense will have a field day, and WON’T QUIT EARLY THIS YEAR either.

ND Wins: 31 – 21

Week 11 – @ Pitt

I’m not quite sure what is going on with people thinking Pitt is going to be good this year. They were average last year, and they lost 99% of their offense in Lesean McCoy. Their quarterback situation is dire, as Stull is a terrible QB and the probable starter. They have a serviceable defense, but it’s nothing to write home about. Without McCoy to carry the team on his shoulders in the Wildcat, ND and Pitt don’t go to Overtime last year, and they don’t come close to winning. I am still not sure how ND doesnt put EVERY SINGLE GUY ON THE LOS TO STOP THE FREAKING MCCOY WILDCAT PLAY OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN last year, but that won’t happen this year. Not because we figured it out, but just because McCoy is a goner.

Pitt will be a mediocre team once again, and ND will win this game easily.

ND Wins: 31 – 14

Week 12 – UCONN

Uconn will be a tougher game than Pitt, but the Irish should handle their former backup QB and his squad. I think Uconn will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder, feeling like they don’t get the respect they deserve. I think they’ll play a scrappy game and put a scare on ND early, but ND is simply more talented, and being at home won’t hurt either.

The Uconn offense will move with its QB, and he’s not a bad one. Having been at ND, Zach Frazier got to learn a bit under C-dub, and he is obviously a pretty talented dude. But Zach will only be able to do so much, as his supporting cast just isn’t as intimidating. The Irish D should work to make Uconn fairly 1-dimensional, and that will be their downfall.

ND’s offense should move the ball well (notice a theme here folks? outside of MSU and USC, does ND face another decent D all season?), and will put up points.

Uconn is outclassed in this one.

ND Wins: 38 – 14

Week 13 – @ Stanford

You know, it’s sorta tough to believe, but I think that Stanford is the 2nd toss-up game of the season. Harbaugh has done a pretty good job in Palo Alto, and their squad is looking to move up out of the basement of the Pac-10 to the mid-upper tier.

With a (potentially) new starting QB that appears to be more athletic, the Stanford offense could be significantly more productive this season, and the Cardinal D will be solid if not spectacular. ND has had battles with the Cardinal recently, and I am predicting another one here in Palo Alto over Thanksgiving weekend.

As mentioned before, I think ND will have 1 hiccup outside of USC this year and I think it’ll either be MSU or Stanford. But probably not both. If ND comes in with a single loss to USC, this will be a big game, with big-time BCS implications (even with ND at 2-losses, it probably has the same implications).

I think ND is more likely to drop one earlier in the year against MSU than here, though, so I’m giving the Irish the edge.

ND Wins: 21-17

Summary

So that puts ND finishing up the regular season at 10-2. 9-3 is our downside, and 11-1 the top side, but given that I feel like we have 2 toss-up games, and given Jimmy’s penchant for having games where he hits more opposing CBs in the chest than ND receivers, 9-3 is probably more likely than 11-1. I think 10-2 is probably the right number here though. I don’t think ND’s schedule is as weak as some say (see my post on it), but I think ND will be well-equipped to handle most of the teams they face. This won’t yet be a great team (again, see 2010), but it will be a solid, Top 10 squad by the end of the season. Since they won’t be great, expect a hiccup against a decent MSU or Stanford squad, and expect us to still be playing a bit of catchup against USC. That said, ND will be favored, or will be in, every game this year. A 10-2 finish and a BCS appearance is my prediction. Here’s to seeing it happen.

Go ARSH!

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Anyway, at this point, looks like The Bear has paid the price for his reverse karma picks against ND, and The Biscuit has taken the lead.

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We kid, The Bear. We know this is your clever use of reverse psychology to cause ND to win a game.

The Games:

Notre Dame/Purdue

Cal/Oregon

Oklahoma/Colorado

The Picks:

• Sed: ND – 59, Cal – 86, Oklahoma – 72, QB: Oklahoma
• Sed’s Dog: ND – 45, Oregon – 45, Colorado – 45, QB: Oregon
• Biscuit: ND – 37, Cal – 65, Oklahoma – 50, QB: Oregon
• Bad Kermit: ND – 63, Cal – 49, Oklahoma – 72, QB: Oklahoma
• The Bear: Purdue – 45, Oregon – 75, Oklahoma – 72, QB: Oklahoma
• ChisND: ND – 59, Oregon – 80, Oklahoma – 69, QB: Oklahoma
• DNeelan: ND – 28, Oregon – 35, Oklahoma – 48, QB: Oklahoma
• domer.mq: ND – 40, Cal – 60, Oklahoma – 60, QB: Oklahoma
• JoeO: ND – 48, Cal – 69, Oklahoma – 49, QB: Oregon

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