HLS “Your Guess is As Good As Mine but You Read the Blog So You Get to Read My Guess” Pre-season Predictions

So I did this last year.  I’d link to it but 1)  I can’t find the post and 2)  I was so horribly wrong it’s just not smart to link to it.  I predicted 8-4 on the upside and 7-5 on the down-side last year.  I way over-valued our returning O-line leadership, and way under-appreciated our lack of experience in many skill positions.  But, I’ve learned much in the past year.   Things like “you kick it on 4th and 8 from 43 yards out” and “the bottom isn’t there until you’ve hit bottom” and “to beat UCLA in the Rose Bowl, take out all of their QBs until they’re playing the local JV backup”. 

With that, here’s my annual game by game run-down of the season, complete with destined-to-be-accurate calls on points, game details and other happenings in, of, and around Irish Football.

I’ll also include a Confidence Scale this year, since no outcome can be predicted with 100% accuracy, with the exception of knowing 1000% that Michigan Sucks.  That is clear.   Here’s the Scale:

 This is just as likely to be wrong as it is to be right (aka the   BadKermit Effect)

  I’ve got a good feeling, but am leaving myself some wiggle room

This is a lock, I am a genius, I cannot be wrong.

Week 1 – San Diego State

ND will come into the Aztecs undefeated (whooooo hoooooo!!!!) and will be fired up and ready to play.  The Aztecs are in a fairly bad place – coming off a mediocre season, and having lost their 1 real player.  ND will focus on running the ball, what with 300lbs+ linemen teeing off on 148lb DL guys from the Aztecs.  Clausen will be allowed to stretch his arm at times, but ND will play it close to the vest on offense, moving the ball at will on the ground.  The Aztecs will try to run the ball on ND, but the athelticism of ND’s LB’s proves too much for them.

ND wins:  24 – 7.  

Interesting note:  Have you ever been to SDSU?  Probably not.  But if you go, you won’t want to miss the sights, so be like this dude in the middle and get it right:

Week 2 – Michigan

Ah, the glory that is Michigan sucking.  I could go on for hours about the off-season they’ve had (as they can go on and on about the season we had), but I won’t.  Mostly because I’ve already done so. 

Michigan comes to ND with a new coach, new system, no offensive players and steroids (maybe!!!).  They also come with a very experienced defense.   I see this game being a struggle for both teams offensively.  Michigan is going to be a freaking mess.  Maybe not 2007 ND in Ann Arbor MESS.  But a mess nonetheless, and Tenuta/Brown will be going after it to keep it that way.  ND will apply pressure throughout the day, and the inexperienced Michigan offensive line and backfield will struggle.  Their quarterback will scramble around for some short gains, and they’ll move the ball a bit with some quick/short tosses, but they’ll never get a momentum.  The Irish offense will struggle as well.  Moving the ball on the ground will be tough against a stout and athletic Michigan D.  However, this is the game where I see Clausen really coming into his own.  Assuming the O-line can give him more than .000001 seconds this year, I think he’ll start to find Kamara, Grimes and yes, Michael Floyd against the UM (sucks!) DBs.  It’s not pretty, but the Irish will put together 2 solid drives in the game, which will be the difference. 

ND Wins:  14-7.

Week 3 – Michigan State

Having beaten the weak 2008 Michigan team in Week 2, ND moves on to the school where you can major in Packaging (seriously) the next week.  Off to Michigan State, where since I can remember, the Irish win.  The ghost of John El will be in the house for sure this week.  MSU is fairly experienced this year, and we believe that Dantonio has the Spartans on the right track.  After 2 wins, the Irish are confident and hitting their stride.  However, MSU’s ground game is solid, and is complemented by a basic and functional passing game that helps them move the chains.  ND’s defense will bend but not break, and the offense will move the ball.  But it will be a tough back and forth battle, and one I think ND will drop.  Yes, super sad.

ND Loses:  21-17. 

Week 4 – Purdue

World’s Most Boring Week of College Football.  Purdue comes to ND playing for their retiring coach, and bummed out because they have lost everyone with any talent in the off-season, with the exception of their high quality QB.  ND will move the ball well against Purdue this year (as they did last year).  Hopefully C-dub and H-wood (okay, that’s lame, but whatever) are able to stick to the ground game here, and pound the ball a bit on the (yaaaaaaawn) Boilermakers.  That should help control the pace of the game, and break Purdue’s spirit early.  Haywood shouldn’t abandon the run, even if ND gets behind early.  Purdue will focus heavily on their passing game, which will allow Brown and Tenuta to load up and freaking TEE OFF on the quarterback.  The loss of Walls will be felt in this game, but the ND backfield is up for the challenge of a Selwyn Lymon-less Purdue receiving corps.  ND will take this one.

ND Wins:  31 – 20. 

This game will also set a record for number of people that fall asleep at a sporting event.  Simply due to the presence of anything/everything Purdue.

Week 5 – Stanford

The Cardinal comes to South Bend this year after a fairly miserable year, with the exception of their miraculous win over USC.   I like Harbaugh, but this team just isn’t that talented, and they didn’t seem to catch their stride last year at any point.  The ND game was a solid win for the Irish, made closer by 2 terrible calls that resulted in an 11 point swing in The Cardinal’s favor.   ND will roll on the ground in this game, dominating the line of scrimmage.  Clausen’s comfortable behind his O-line and is able to pick apart the Cardinal D.  ND stacks the line and blitzes with abandon, keeping the Stanford offense off the field.  This one’s a route.

ND Wins:  31 – 10. 

Week 6 – UNC

North Carolina is a bit of a question mark for me this year.  On paper, they’re somewhat similar to ND, but obviously with somewhat lesser levels of talent.  But there is some latent experience on the squad, and good leadership.  ND will come into this game feeling good, and I think UNC might sneak up on the squad.  Notre Dame should have an edge given their young talent, but UNC will be at home and fired up to be playing the Irish.  This could be a danger game for the Irish.   I’m really not sure what’s going to happen in this game given my relative lack of familiarity, and the weirdness of playing at UNC.  As a guess, ND drops a close one.

ND Loses:  24-21.    (Toss-up)

Week 7 – BYE.

I am going with ND on this one.   

Week 8 – Washington

ND flies out to the West Coast to take on Ty’s squad which, despite sucking royally at football last year, has an awesome team handicap.  Washington faces a brutal schedule this year, and ND is actually one of the relatively easier match-ups for U-Dub.  Too bad for them, they have Ty as their coach.  This means they have 1 offensive lineman on the roster, and they haven’t seen their coach at practice for a week as he worked on his short game.  ND is having a decent season at 4-2 and are hoping to keep the headlines calm with a win over Ty and the Huskies.  Seriously, the papers will just FREAKING LOVE IT if Ty beats Charlie.  Even though it shouldn’t be about that it will be.  And I expect Washington to give the Irish fits in this game.  They’ve lost their top defensive player, but are experienced, if not super-skilled, on both sides of the ball.  And Locker would be a Heisman candidate pretty much anywhere else in the country.  ND will have to contain him to bring home this win.   I expect an emotionally charged start, some penalties, and a brutal crowd.  ND will try to slow things down and dictate the pace through a steady running game, and it will work.  I think.  Hope.  But it will be close. 

ND Wins:  17-14. 

Week 9 – Pitt

Genac this!

The ‘Stache is coming to town, and he’s bringing his ’stache with him dammit.  Pitt will be a decent squad this year, and will match up well with ND.  Pitt has given ND fits in the past few years, and this game will be no different.  I expect a tight fought, hard hitting game.  A balanced attack from both teams, coupled with tough D.  Wann-stache has done a good job recruiting in Western PA, and Pitt should be in the upper 1/3 of the Big East this year.  ND once again has the edge in talent, but not in experienced talent.   This is another toss-up in my mind, but I’m giving Pitt the edge, simply because I know we have some work to do to get where we need to be. 

ND Loses:  28-24 

Week 10 – BC

BC looks a little like Michigan this year.  Everyone left on offense, D remains okay.  In general, though, the Eagles lost a lot – especially their leader in Matt Ryan.  But, they lost 17 5th year seniors from the roster in total.  17! That’s madness, and more than I think ND has had in 3 years.  With all that leadership and experience gone, I expect this squad to struggle more than most do this year.  I think ND takes this game, no problem.  It will be the Eagles trying to run against ND in this game, but I think the Irish will have the ground game figured out at this point, and they’ll perform well.  ND will need a balanced attack to move the ball against the Eagles, and will execute well.  Huuuuuuuuuuughes will be pounding the ball behind Stewart and Young, and ND will roll in this one.

ND Wins:  28 – 10. 

Week 11 – Navy

Navy’s year was last year.  At this point, if it was gonna happen any year, last year was it.  Fine.  This year?  Nah.  They’ll put up points, but a more aggressive and athletic/experienced LB corps will slow them down this year.  ND will capitalize on mistakes, and put up a solid score, relying heavily on Jimmy’s arm.

ND Wins:  38 – 21. 

Week 11 – Syracuse

Cuse struggle.   That is all.

ND Wins:  42 – 7 

Week 12 – USC

There are a number of folks tossing out that the Irish could come into USC undefeated.  Yes, and I could become President of the University.  I could, but it’s so extremely unlikely it’s not worth getting worked up over.   ND will come into this game with a decent season behind them, massive improvement, but still with some gaps.  It will be 2010 before the Irish catch up to USC in terms of talent and depth, and then I’ll call this game for the Irish.  This year, and yes, next year, ND will be behind in experience and won’t be able to pull this game off.  More respectable than last year, but still a tough loss to finish up the season.

ND Loses:  28 – 14. 

Yes, I hate putting 3 of these little bastards next to a loss.  It doesn’t mean I don’t give us a chance, but it’s a small chance.  I HATE being realistic!!!

Over the course of the season, we’ll see what the future of Irish football is.  We won’t see the full potential realized though, til late in the ‘09 season, and we’ll be in the NC hunt in 2010 with all the talent Charlie and Co are stockpiling.

ND will be respectable again, and a decent squad.  Charlie will be secure in his job, as he is now, and the program will continue to build for the future.  Which looks very bright.

Based on the above, straight-lined, I expect 8-4.  But given the number of toss-ups, a weighted average puts us right between 7-5 and 8-4.   Being a conservative Value investor, I’m going to hedge a bit and go with 7-5.  6-6 is our bottom, 9-3 our top if we get lucky and see vast improvement.   7-5 likely lands ND in the Gator Bowl, a potentially winnable bowl depending on how things go.  I wouldn’t mind this season with a Bowl Win.

I really hope I’m wrong though, and see 11-1 and another BCS. 

So where did I get it right?  Where am I dead wrong?