What “Soft” Schedule?

So I don’t get all this talk about ND’s soft schedule. The pundits are all over it, ND’s competitors’ fans are all over it (but they say we have a weak schedule even when we have a Top 10 SOS bc we play an Academy or 2 – nevermind they’re decent teams, THEY’RE ACADEMIES!!!!), and of course all the haters in general say it.

I get it if people say that it’s not that exciting of a sked. There aren’t big names on this schedule. With Michigan (sucks) sucking, one of our typically 2 (along with USC) ‘power’ program games doesn’t exist this year. And the rest of the slate isn’t all the gripping from a big name perspective. 100% agree.

And I get it being soft compared to ND schedules of the past, where ND typically had a Top 10 or Top 15 SOS. It’s not a killer schedule. It’s not brutal.

But compared to MOST programs across the country, ND’s schedule isn’t soft.

Phil Steele ranks ND’s Strength of Schedule as the 36th most difficult in the country. Out of 112 teams, 36 isn’t “soft”. It is, in fact, well above average in terms of difficulty. And it’s much closer to 1 than it is to 112. A lot of other rankings aren’t out yet, but let’s say you don’t buy Steele’s methdology or you think Phil is wrong. Phil is a smart guy, but he can be off right? But he’s generally not WAY off. Let’s say he’s wrong by a lot, which isn’t all that likely – say 40% off. That would mean ND would fall at 51, right at average. Even then, it’s not a super soft schedule like many are trying to say. It would just be average.

Why is ND’s schedule not soft? And why do people say it is? Here’s why:

Why ND’s schedule isn’t soft:

1) Folks are calling ND’s schedule weak because we don’t play a ton of big-time, marquee matchups. This doesn’t mean it’s a weak schedule. Playing 2-3 really tough/brand name teams makes a schedule seem really tough. But if the rest of the schedule is a bunch of jokes, in reality it’s not that tough. Bc you only have to show up for 3 games all season. A schedule against a bunch of solid to good teams is much harder than a schedule against 2 powerhouses and a bunch of patsies, because every game is up for grabs in a schedule where almost all the teams are decent to good. That’s what ND is kind of facing this year. Yes, there are a few games that should be cakewalks. But in general, we have a bunch of games where we’ll be playing decent teams/programs, and not a lot of games that are just jokes: Nevada, UM (sucks), MSU, Purdue, USC, BC, Pitt, Navy, UCONN and Stanford are all decent squads. It’s not Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Florida, (nobody plays that schedule anyway), but it’s not a bunch of lame ducks either.

2) There aren’t many outright patsies on the schedule. Washington and WSU are certainly 2. But at least they’re D1 programs, and many expect improvement for UW now that Ty is gone. There are none, zero, zip DII programs on ND’s sked. “Top” teams are scheduling 2-3 of these games a year, along with “D1″ programs like some WAC and MAC opponents that might as well be D2. ND doesn’t do this. ND’s “gimme” games are always D1 programs, and usually decent competition. Sure, WSU and Washington aren’t scaring anyone much. But it’s not Podunk U Community College either.

3) If ND’s sked is so soft that even an undefeated or a solid 1-loss season wouldn’t put them in the NC game, then the following teams shouldn’t make it with a 1-loss or undefeated season either: Michigan (29th SOS), Florida (34), Ohio State (39), Texas (40), Clemson (45), Cal (51), Oregon St (55), Alabama (68!!!), Penn State (72!!!). According to these folks, the only teams that can really lay claim to an NC game appearance then, should they make it, are teams with Top 20 SOS. That means the only teams that even have a shot are probably in this group of decent programs with Top 20 SOS: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, MSU, Oregon, Miami, USC, Texas Tech. Pretty much everyone else should just give up right? Pack your bags for some other game and give up your hopes of a NC right now because there’s no chance. Their schedules are sooooo weak, they have no chance whatsoever!!!. Florida? Sorry fellas. Your sked is too weak. Give up now. Alabama and Penn State? HAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!! No.

Why do people say the schedule is soft when it’s not? A few reasons:

1) The relative to ND’s past thing. Yes, it’s soft compared to the past. But if you always had the hardest schedule in the country, #5 SOS would all of a sudden seem soft. It’s all relative.

2) ND is ND. This focus on the ND sked is a product of ND being ND as well. Last year, Alabama was 1 game away from the NC game. You know what their SOS was (according to Sagarin)? F-ing in the 70’s. 70’s!!!! You see this again this year. No one batted an eye last year and they’re not this year either. Why? Bc they’re not ND. They would’ve played for a NC game with a SOS of 70 in the blink of an eye last year. This year, there are pundits and fans and haters alike all saying that if ND goes 11-1 or 12-0 we STILL won’t have a chance bc of the weak schedule. REALLY? Bama can get in on a schedule in the 70’s but ND can’t when they play a SOS in the 30’s? Give me a break.

3) Service Academies. Haters LOOOOOVE to say “but they play Army and Navy and Air Force, blah blah blah”. First, besides Army, those are decent programs. Both Navy and Air Force are annual Bowl contenders, and they are tough as nails. This is NOTHING like playing Troy, people.

Yes, I’d like to see a few more big time matchups on the ND schedule. I’d also like to see a home slate that’s more appetizing. But this whole ND soft schedule thing has gone far enough. Go write/complain about the other 76 out of the 112 FBS teams that have a weaker schedule first, then come whining to me about ND, okay? Okay.

Go Arsh, beat whoever the hell they throw at us!

Disclaimer: Personally, I don’t think you can rank SOS accurately until midway through, or the end of, a season. How can you really know how tough an opponent will be until you actually see them play a bit? I have the same issue with pre-season rankings. It all makes zero sense. That said, the point here is that ND’s sked, by Steele’s measure, isn’t killer by any stretch. But it certainly shouldn’t be focused on as a negative more than any other team in the 30’s or higher, especially not moreso than squads like Alabama or Penn State who are playing High School JV teams week in and week out…