DeShone Kizer has impressed Notre Dame coaches, teammates and fans with his performance so far this year.
The Toledo, Ohio sophomore currently ranks 16th among quarterbacks in passing efficiency – a measure of his ability to complete passes, throw touchdowns and avoid interceptions – and second among freshmen/redshirt freshmen.
Eric Hansen of the South Bend Tribune offers this context:
In the historical perspective, if he can perpetuate his 156.9 rating over the balance of the season, it would be the best mark ever for a Notre Dame first-year starting quarterback (minimum 100 attempts), nudging out 1964 Heisman Trophy winner John Huarte’s first and only season as a starter (155.1).
Only two quarterbacks in ND history have had better single-season ratings, both as third-year starters: Jimmy Clausen in 2009 (161.4) and Brady Quinn in 2005 (158.4).
For comparison’s sake, their first-year ratings were 103.85 and 93.53, respectively. Everett Golson in 2012 was at 131.01. Tommy Rees in his first full season (2011) finished at 133.37, Dayne Crist (2010) at 129.34.
And Ron Powlus in 1994, the year then ESPN analyst Beano Cook predicted multiple Heismans for the now Irish director of player development, recorded a 139.18.
Irish fans have come to expect a bit of a learning curve when it comes to first-year starters. However, Kizer – aided in large part by an efficient rushing attack and excellent pass protection – has the offense running better than his immediate predecessors.
By my count, Kizer has taken 345 snaps under center in his Irish career. The run/pass distribution is similar to 2012, when freshman Everett Golson was leading the offense. And while the run game is producing similar numbers to that 12-1 squad, Kizer is throwing for approximately 400 more yards than Golson.
[table “” not found /]Only Golson’s team sported a better record – 7-0 as opposed to Kizer’s 6-1 – during the 345 snap period.
- Crist: 2009 – Nevada (13 snaps), Michigan St. (3 snaps), Purdue (40 snaps), Washington St. (15 snaps); 2010 – Purdue (62 snaps), Michigan (40 snaps), Michigan St. (81 snaps), Stanford (67 snaps) and BC (24 snaps). The Irish were 6-4 in that stretch.
- Golson: 2012 – Navy (49 snaps), Purdue (64 snaps), Michigan St. (63 snaps), Michigan (18 snaps), Miami (61 snaps), Stanford (62 snaps), Oklahoma (28 snaps). The Irish were 7-0 in that time period.
- Rees: 2010 – Michigan (5 snaps), Boston College (3 snaps), Western Michigan (7 snaps), Navy (10 snaps), Tulsa (74 snaps), Utah (49 snaps), Army (56 snaps), USC (64 snaps), Miami (75); 2011 – USF (2 snaps). The Irish were 6-4 in that stretch.
- Quinn: 2003 – Washington St. (5 snaps), Michigan (13 snaps), Michigan St. (22 snaps), Purdue (85 snaps), Pittsburgh (73 snaps), USC (70 snaps), BC (73 snaps) and Florida State (4 snaps). The Irish were 2-6 during those games.
- Clausen: 2007 – Georgia Tech (11 snaps), Penn State (58 snaps), Michigan (42 snaps), Michigan St. (45 snaps), Purdue (43 snaps), UCLA (65 snaps), BC (32 snaps) and Air Force (49 snaps). The Irish, as hard as we’ve tried to forget, were 1-7 during Clausen’s first 345 snaps.
Finally, I’ll leave you with a caveat. Brady Quinn, when I showed him a similar chart showing Zaire’s first 103 snaps in comparison to his predecessors, tweeted: “Love the data, but hard to compare QB’s playing as true freshman vs. redshirt etc. different systems, different styles.”
He’s absolutely right. Stats don’t tell the whole story. But this data suggests there’s reason for great optimism for Irish fans.
Notre Dame graduate, class of '02 (the Davie years!). A former newspaper and TV reporter, andrewwinn is now professionally involved in something far less fun to discuss than college football. A dad, a husband and a wannabe data nerd.
Read all posts by andrewwinn
Follow @HLS_NDtex
- In Kelly-Harbaugh Recruit Fight, It’s Tied - January 19, 2017
- Catching Up With Matt Fortuna (Part 2) - January 6, 2017
- Catching Up With Matt Fortuna - January 5, 2017
I’ve always thought that Kelly is a control freak with his QBs which was probably a good idea given what he had to work with.
Now he’s got someone really good, and my concern is that he won’t know when to let out on the kid.
I see that Kizer already has the top values in both rushing yards & passing yards as the other QBs above. What makes you think that BK is holding him back? What sort of additional increase in production would signal that he’s relaxing the reins?
My point is that as Kizer gets better and better Kelly is not going to need the control over him that he has exercised over his previous QBs. In other words – as time goes on and Kizer gets more and more confident – let the reins loose on him because he doesn’t need them anymore.
Hi Terry. Thanks for reading and commenting. “Now that he’s got someone really good” is a bit problematic, given Golson and Zaire, but I’ll concede that there were issues with Everett. But I think Kelly let “out on” DeShone in the USC game. I mean, the first play call was a pretty nice pass and then he had DeShone in the read option and even let him pooch punt. What more is he, Kelly, supposed to do? Let DeShone design plays in the turf?
Referring to Quinn’s comment: Golson WAS a redshirt freshman in 2012… just like Kizer today.
Barrie – That’s my bad. He was speaking of all the predecessors. (I accidentally did not pluralize.) But yes, in their first 346 snaps:
2003 – Quinn (true freshman) – Ty Willingham coach; Bill Diedrick offensive coordinator
2007 – Clausen (true freshman) – Charlie Weis coach; Mike Haywood offensive coordinator
2009 – Crist (redshirt freshman) – Charlie Weis coach; Weis offensive coordinator
2010 – Crist (junior); Rees (true freshman) – Brian Kelly coach; Charley Molnar offensive coordinator
2011 – Rees (sophomore) – Brian Kelly coach; Charley Molnar offensive coordinator
2015 – Kizer (redshirt freshman) – Brian Kelly coach; Mike Sanford offensive coordinator
One thing I would add in a Golson/Kizer comparison: Kelly hasn’t needed to pull Kizer form a game yet. He had to do that multiple times with Golson in 2012.
I am interested in how Kelly will use DK & MZ next season. Kizer has already exceeded my expectations this year, what is it going to be like when Kelly has 2 QB’s who know all the plays?.
There should not be any question – Kizer will have one whole year of experience v. Zaire’s 1 game and one and one half quarters of another.
Kizer has pro size – 6′ 4.5″ and 230 lbs.
He’s proven his composure under pressure – I’m not saying that Zaire doesn’t have it.
If he’s as good as he already is now after only 5 games as the starter – what is the ceiling?
Either way, I can’t wait to see how it all pans out. With 2 really talented QB’s it that is a great question. Kizer can only get better.
So….this is pretty much Kizer’s team looking past this year. He already has more reps and experience than Malik Zaire, right? Nobody is talking about this pending controversy…or is it too soon?
If Kizer stays healthy IMO there shouldn’t be any controversy. If there is one it should be the battle over the backup spot between Zaire and Wimbush.
That of course doesn’t mean that some enterprising ‘reporter’ won’t make up a controversy.
Kizer has impressed me so far. I would bet he will have a better record than Golson. The try for two at the Clemson game was on the coaches. His passing has been bulls eyes.
Golson ALWAYS – even after 4 years – looked like a deer in the headlights when looking to the sideline for the call. Kizer does NOT look like that.