“It’s like deja vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra
Indeed, Yogi. Welcome back for another installment of “The SEC IS Awesome Theory”, folks. After the chaos of last week’s Bloody Saturday, scholars of the Theory knew that the SEC was poised to wrestle the #1 position away from Wile E. Winston and the Florida State Seminoles. We also knew that the loser of the Mississippi State-Auburn game would find a way to hang in the Top 5 or somewhere close should they keep the game close. The only true mysteries were whether or not UPSTART! Arkansas would be able to out duel the magical offensive mind of Lane Kiffin and what the Rebels would do against a team that has actually beaten a (formerly) ranked team.
Let’s do some AWESOME…
The AWESOME Games
(2) AUB 23 / (3) MS ST 38 – by all accounts, the Bulldogs completely out-awesome’d Auburn during this game. After whooping up on SEC-West bottom feeders LSU and Texas A&M, this was shaping up to be the first true test for the 3rd ranked team in the country – and they passed. But recall how “awesome” Auburn truly was – they had also only beaten two SEC-West cellar mates (Arkansas and LSU) in addition to escaping an at-the-time #20 Kansas State, who will have the chance to beat their first ranked opponent this week against Oklahoma. Does all of that inspire you to think they’re the BEST team in the country? And what to do with the loser?
(3) Ole Miss 35 / (14) Texas A&M 20 – we were right, this WAS terrific theater! Well, at least for 18 minutes and 4 seconds, at which point Rebel defender Cody Prewitt intercepted Week 1 Thursday’s Heisman SHOE-IN Kenny Football and took it to the house. This put Ole Miss up by three touchdowns and the Aggies just never recovered – even poor Reveille could be seen taking a nap on the sidelines by the third quarter . It was another great win for the Rebels, who were coming off their defeat of Alabama. Hey, at least A&M had beaten a (previously ranked) opponent, right Alabama? Our question is – if the only ranked team that A&M has beaten all season is the now-unranked Gamecocks…how truly AWESOME of a victory was it? Don’t forget that A&M needed OVERTIME to squeak by last-place Arkansas (only seven days before.
(7) BAMA 14 / (NR) Arkansas 13– as we predicted last week, this was indeed the 6th week in a row in which the Tide failed to beat a ranked opponent. I hope you had your popcorn ready for the Tide’s 160 passing yards and…excuse me, 60 yards on the ground? The #7 team in the country DOUBLED their offensive touchdown production from just a week ago by reaching pay dirt TWICE in Fayetteville.
Twice. Two touchdowns…14 points. That’s it. Yes, Kiffin and Daddy Saban couldn’t believe it, either.
But remember friends, this was against ARKANSAS. They’re an upstart team, a team on the rise, whose only failings are being cursed enough to be the LAST place team in the galaxy’s finest division, the SEC-West. And nothing says UPSTART like a team who hasn’t won a conference game in their last 15 attempts. A team that missed a field goal, had an extra point blocked and fumbled once on the goal line lost to Alabama by ONE point. Surely this performance would earn the Tide some slippage in the polls?
The AWESOME Results
In the most rhetorical “BREAKING” tweet of all time on Sunday, @AP_Top25 followed the lead of Theory Facilitators Kirk Herbstreit and Paul Finebaum by fulfilling the SEC’s destiny to reclaim their rightful position atop the College Football world as the new #1. Despite their 21st straight victory and 18-point margin over conference opponent Syracuse, Florida State was DROPPED to #2 in the AP poll in deference to Mississippi State. Interestingly enough, @AP_Top25 quickly felt it was necessary to follow-up that bomb with an explanation for their adherence to The Theory, complete with a “see, we like you, too!” picture of the Seminole football team. Troll so hard, AP…
Okay, so a number one team that didn’t lose was leapfrogged by a lower ranked squad in 2012 – what are the chances that there’s something unbelievably poetic about their awkward attempt to defend themselves? Would you believe that the 2012 rank-swap incident ALSO involved Awesome SEC teams jumping non-SEC teams? Of course you would! Sure enough, Southern Cal toppled Hawaii by 39 points in the season opener, only to drop back to #2 when second-best Alabama beat Michigan by 27 points. Just like the Tide’s victory in 2012, Mississippi State’s big win over Auburn was impressive – it’s a huge win for their program and they clearly deserve to be ranked as one of the top teams in the country. But do we really want to get into situations where we’re ranking clear victories to clear victories? Is Florida State’s 18- point victory over the ‘Cuse really worse than Bama’s 10-point victory over West Virginia? Ole Miss’ 17-point triumph over Boise State? Mississippi State’s 13-point victory over…the University of Alabama-Birmingham? All opponents are unranked, both at the time of the victory and in current rankings. The only difference? Why, the SEC Is Awesome…
We should probably consider ourselves lucky to have avoided the entire Doomsday Scenario presented last week. The Seminoles only lost one spot, keeping the Rebels at #3 – which I am SURE was a tough pill for the establishment to swallow! In what was truly a “BREAKING” development, Auburn’s margin of failure was too large and the Tigers failed to crack the Top 5. To the pollsters’ credit, even they couldn’t deny that maybe, this one time, they should reward the victorious and undefeated squads from Waco and South Bend with the privilege of being ranked ahead of [awesome] one-loss Auburn. I mean, let’s not get crazy…
So how far did Auburn fall? Better check Theory Precedent – let’s see…Alabama dropped four spots from #3 to #7 after they were beaten by fellow AWESOME SEC opponent, Ole Miss. That was a 6-point victory in Tuscaloosa. Surely Auburn’s 15-point loss would earn them a larger drop? It couldn’t be as sizable as Oklahoma’s 7-spot free-fall after losing to TCU, though…what to do, what to do? Ah!
In a genius yet logic-challenging move, Auburn was gifted the same 4-spot ‘slap-on-the-wrist’ as Bama. You see, this provided an impenetrable SEC-wall against the climb of B1G lone-soldier Michigan State, who were set to jump the awful-looking and clearly receding Tide after a two touchdown Spartan victory over Purdue…only, this didn’t happen. Fool! If you thought an 18-point FSU victory over an unranked conference opponent would create a similar one-spot demotion for Alabama after their 1-point victory over an unranked conference opponent…then you clearly need to study the Theory just a little bit harder! Remember, the Tide’s awesome victory in hostile Razorback country was over the upstart Arkansas squad, a (last place) SEC-West team! I suppose that someday we might just find the limits of the SEC Is Awesome Theory…but it wasn’t this week, my friends. It’s a push for once-beaten Bama, who has yet to beat a ranked opponent but remains as the 7th ranked team in the country.
The University of Georgia pounded MIZZOU 34-0 without their entrepreneurial [former] Heisman candidate – a very impressive victory. Unfortunately, the Theory seems to only be able to support one half of the AWESOME SEC at one time. It’s either a South Carolina or Texas A&M kind of world, if you know what I mean, and this year, the college football world is the West Division’s pearl. The victory WAS enough to get UGA into the Top 10 by jumping over a team like Oklahoma, who won the Red River Rivalry on Saturday. Now, MIZZOU was ranked (#23) but only for the first time since Week 4 when they lost to Indiana. They jumped BACK into the Top 25, theoretically taking a Top 25 SEC Slot from the flailing South Carolina Gamecock squad that they had just upset…and who had beaten Georgia a few weeks earlier. Rank, play each other and repeat…
Fun Facts and Things to Look For:
– SEC teams have defeated a ranked opponent 13 times this season
– 10 of those 13 victories against a ranked team have come against another SEC team
– 50% of those SEC victories over ranked SEC teams were against SEC teams that are no longer ranked
– non-SEC teams have defeated a ranked opponent 18 times this season
– after those 18 victories against ranked teams, the non-SEC teams jumped an average of 3.667 spots in the AP Top 25
– SEC teams have jumped an average of 5.23 spots after beating any ranked opponent (5.9 spots when playing another SEC team)
Here’s your update on the SEC awesomeness migration within the AP echelons:
Preseason
#1 – #5: 1 SEC Team
#6 – #10: 2 SEC Teams
#11 – #15: 2 SEC Teams
#16 – #20: 1 SEC Team
#21 – #25: 2 SEC Teams
Last Week
#1 – #5: 3 SEC Teams
#6 – #10: 1 SEC Team
#11 – #15: 2 SEC Teams
#16 – #20: 0 SEC Team
#21 – #25: 1 SEC Team
This Week
#1 – #5: 2 SEC Teams (-1)
#6 – #10: 3 SEC Team (+2)
#11 – #15: 0 SEC Teams (-2)
#16 – #20: 0 SEC Team (-)
#21 – #25: 1 SEC Team (-)
Games to Watch This Week:
(3) Ole Miss vs Tennessee – not too much should happen here. The Rebels should handle the Vols if there are who the polls and media have told us they are. Keep in mind that ‘ol Smoky gave SEC-East rivals Florida and Georgia some genuine trouble, so a close game or Rocky-Top upset would really make a statement about the true state of the supposed SEC-West dominance. Fortunately for the Seminoles, there really shouldn’t be any way Ole Miss could jump them if they remain undefeated after facing the Irish. Right?
(10) Georgia vs (NR) Arkansas – this game should also be a forgone conclusion, unless you’re still making down payments on your UPSTART tattoo’s after recent ESPN praise of the Hogs. If the Gurley-less DAWGS handily take care of business in Fayetteville, what does that say about Alabama? Or Texas A&M?
(7) Alabama vs (21) Texas A&M – a rematch of the rematch of the GAME OF THE CENTURY (rev. 2012). A&M has looked really schizophrenic for a few weeks now. Alabama has looked absolutely anemic on offense. Remember, these two teams’ only victories over ranked teams are…well, actually, only one of them (Texas A&M) has even beaten a ranked team. And that ranked team was South Carolina, who is now merely a .500 team and is no longer ranked.
Doomsday Scenario: #3 Ole Miss destroys the unranked (but awesome!) Volunteers, #10 Georgia destroys the unranked (UPSTART!) Hogs, #7 Alabama gets its first win against a ranked (And AWESOME) opponent, West Virginia upsets #4 Baylor and #5 Notre Dame defeats #1 #2 Florida State in a close, epic game. Throw in an upset of Oregon by Washington and suppose Sparty gets the MIZZOU treatment…
#1 Mississippi State (undefeated)
#2 ‘Ole Miss (undefeated)
#3 Notre Dame (undefeated)
#4 Auburn (one loss)
#5 Alabama (1 loss)
#6 Georgia (1 loss)
Thought the 80% dream was dead? Think again…stay AWESOME, my friends.
- The SEC is AWESOME Theory – WEEK 13 Update - November 28, 2014
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- The SEC is AWESOME Theory – WEEK 11 Update - November 13, 2014