EDIT: BIG HAT TIP to WhiskeyJack, who put a lot of the FB Player and AA FB Player stats together here. Big Ups!
There are a lot of reasons to pick any school: academics, networking, fit, coaches, coaching style/scheme, depth chart, NFL prospects (although you can go to the League from almost any school now) location, weather, faith/spirituality, campus, dining hall, etc etc etc
And the importance of each of these is different for each recruit, and some consider all of these, and some consider very few of them. But there’s one area that tends to be a bit over-looked, and I am guessing that it’s largely because it hasn’t been quantified with regularity in the past.
I have no idea if the staff pushes this today, and I don’t know how important it is to any of our recruits, but I know it’s important to many people in the world. The one thing?
Money.
Cold, hard, cash.
MONEY MONEY MONEY MO-NEY. MAH-NEY!
Businessweek, in conjunction with PayScale, did their best to estimate the value of an undergraduate degree from a school, and then I looked at the #’s among Football Players and African American Football players by building in graduation rates (from NCAA calculations provided by WhiskeyJack). And you know what? ND is the BEST CHOICE among competitive programs for African American players, and a close #2 to Stanford overall.
Let’s take a look at it in detail.
OVERALL RANKINGS (all students)
1. Cal Tech
2. Harvey Mudd
3. MIT
4. Princeton
5. Stanford
6. Dartmouth
7. Duke
8. Harvard
9. Penn
10. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is #10 overall with a Net Return of $1.4 million. The rest of the Top 10 includes only 1 other competitive FBS program in Stanford (no, Duke isn’t competitive). The next ‘big name’ program on the list? Cal, at #18, with a return of <$1.2 million. So sure, a player can choose a school other than Stanford or ND, and it's going to cost that player, at minimum, $200,000 (on average). That is real money folks! And looking for the #4 competitive program shows an even bigger difference. That school is UVA (and are they even really competitive?), and they are ranked 44th with a return of <$1MM which will cost a player ~$400K vs going to ND or Stanford. And how about some of the top FBS programs out there today? What does a degree from one of the 'heavyweights' earn you over a career? Let's take a look at a few of those top programs, and how much attending one of those schools over ND is going to cost a student (opportunity cost), on average: USC - Rank 50. ROI: <$900K. Cost ($ lost by student) vs ND: $500K Michigan - Rank 63. ROI: <$900K. Cost vs ND: $500K Texas - Rank 104. ROI: $700K. Cost vs ND: $700K Wisconsin - Rank 117. ROI: $700K. Cost vs ND: $700K Florida - Rank 125. ROI: $700K. Cost vs ND: $700K ... Alabama - Rank 329. ROI: $400K. Cost vs ND: $1 million. GOING TO ALABAMA WILL COST A STUDENT, ON AVERAGE, $1 million dollars over a career. And this difference is even greater among players, driven by lower and lower graduation rates among ‘football factories’ vs ND.
Note: All numbers rounded to nearest $100K
FOOTBALL PLAYERS.
Because of ND’s amazing graduation rate among players, ND ranks #1 on ROI among African American Football Players, and #2 among All Players.
Ranking Among Players:
1. Stanford
2. Notre Dame
3. Duke
4. BC
5. Vanderbilt
And among African American Players:
1. Notre Dame
2. Duke
3. Stanford
4. BC
5. Vanderbilt
ND is an African American player’s best chance to earn the most money. Period. ND and Stanford are 1 and 2 overall. Period..
And unlike almost every other school in the nation, African American Football players are actually projected to make MORE than the average player. So a player comes to ND, is much much more likely to earn a degree, and with that degree is much, much more likely to earn a bunch of money over a career when compared to what they would earn in a career with a degree from another school (if they were lucky enough to be one of those players that actually graduates from said school, which is not at all guaranteed).
So, every recruit should know this. I hope the staff is making this known. Money is important to many people in the world, and for a lot of kids coming from single income/struggling households, it’s even more important. And while it’s likely not (and should not) be the only factor, I think these stats are important to share with the community. Because let’s say you’re on the fence. You’re a blue chip kid and you’re looking at ND and you’re looking at, say, ‘Bama. Well, wouldn’t you want to know that going to ND comes with an extra million bucks over the course of a career (down the road of course)?
No, ND won’t pay you under the table right now to come to South Bend (unlike some other schools). But man, the degree is certainly worth a TON more than the average school, and the difference gets greater and greater when graduation rates are included in the discussion.
And this is something EVERY recruit should know.
$
- (Re)Introducing: DANCING LEPRECHAUNS - August 29, 2019
- Ticket Auction: ND vs USC - August 22, 2019
- No Respect! - December 14, 2018
Chad
Wow. Startling data. I hope this helps move some deliberating prospects off the fence. Nice work.
The Subway Domer
Excellent post. I’ve always referred to it as “hidden dollars,” as far as the difference is concerned.
I hope Alford already knows all of this, but if not, he should print a copy and put it in the briefcase.
kyndfan
I knew I shoulda played ball for the Irish. If only I were taller, faster, stronger, had a better act score and gpa…I could keep going. Yes, every recruit should be made aware of this as well as the percentage of D 1 players who make it to the NFL.
Whiskeyjack
I get no credit for this, Biscuit? Ouch.
Been banging this drum on Irish Envy and Twitter for months. I’ve ranked every major CFB program according to Payscale’s degree value data and GSR for football players (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AmLGzmpC86GYdGYzUURtanVBWHBrWVMxMmZmSlQ4dmc&hl=en_US&f=0&rm=full#gid=0)
It’s an objectively terrible decision to go elsewhere if one has an offer from Stanford or ND.
trey
I think this would really only be a selling point to the 3 star guys. I think theres a reason so few of the competitive teams are on that list. Most recruits we’d target in the 4-5 star range probably dont think grad $ really matters because theyll make millions in the NFL.
The Biscuit
But this is inclusive of that. Such a small percentage go pro from any program…
trey
Im not questioning or criticizing the number. I just dont know that this really factors into the kind of guys we would be recruiting. At least not the kind of guys we’d be battling scUM, U$C, Florida, etc for. This would probably be most important to guys that go to Cincy, Maryland, Vandy.
Ryan
Then ND better make sure to tell it to their parents. Because most of them care.
The Biscuit
Whiskey, sorry bud. I knew I saw it somewhere but couldnt figure out where. Hat Tip on the way
Whiskeyjack
Thanks, Biscuit!
This is clearly the best article ever posted to HLS, but I may be a little biased.
borromini
Off topic, but I haven’t been able to see the shout comment box…it’s been giving me the following message:
“ShoutMix free plan is currently unavailable.”
Matt Q. (DMQ)
We’ve apparently been “priced out” of the Shoutmix market. They want to hit us with a fee that would be too high if we selected one of their usable pricing plans. We’re considering other options, but I think it’s likely that the Shoutbox will be going the way of the dodo.
Mike
What’s the difference in value for people leaving before graduation? And is the data misleading because, by imputing graduation rates into the salary figures, you’re implying that if a player doesn’t graduate he will recieve no salary for the rest of his life?
And since football players’ majors tend to cluster, it would be more helpful if the data could be broken down by ROI for the majors of each school. Can we be certain that a player wanting to major in sports broadcasting, for example, would be better placed at ND than, say, USC? Or Syracuse?
The Biscuit
The numbers here are among graduates, the results become even more stark if we take graduation rates into account. And yes, the difference is inflated a bit when we do so Bc we have no assumption of other income to use…but, that impacts all schools equally. And we do know that, On avg, college grads make a lot more than non-grads.
And sure, cutting by major would be ideal. It would be ideal to have all kinds of data we don’t have. But that doesn’t change the story here one bit.
Mike
It doesn’t change the story, it just makes it less compelling.
abplusfive
I like the use of “African-American” instead of “black”. The use of “black” should really be replaced by “African-American” in the media and most other areas.
Joe Magarac
I don’t want to rain on this parade, but it’s worth noting that the Businessweek return-on-investment numbers are based on the future earnings of graduates who were part of the general admission pool. Athletes are not part of that pool. I think it is fairly well known that most schools, ND and Stanford included, hold scholarship football players to a set of admissions requirements that is simultaneously, much more stringent than most schools’ requirements for football players, but much less stringent than the general admissions requirements at ND and Stanford.
It is not surprising that ND general admissions graduates go on to make a lot of money; they have been pre-selected for traits that are correlated with a high income, especially high intelligence. My guess is that ND football players who don’t play in the NFL go on to make a fair bit of money but still make much less than the “average” ND graduate makes.
A true apples-to-apples comparison would compare the expected future income of ND *football players* to the expected future income of football players at other schools. This post does not provide an apples-to-apples comparison.
Pops
Have to agree with Joe here. However, I might argued that by being skewed with NFL salaries and the small sample size, the average ND football grad may actually make more than the average ND non-football grad. Either way, the Business Week numbers aren’t a really accurate comparison point.
Also to consider is the (I’m assuming) high variance in football player salaries. Let’s say if Bama averages 2 players out of every recruiting class drafted in the first round and 5 players drafted overall each year (ND would probably be at .3 first round and 3 overall). The expected increase in expected post-grad money is probably still higher at Bama.
I’d parallel a choice I had in high school: attend my public high school or attend the local Jesuit school. While I’m sure the Jesuit school averaged higher post-grad salaries overall than my public school, my public school actually sent more students to Notre Dame every year (which at the time was my NFL), and that was a contributing factor in my decision.
Whiskeyjack
Payscale’s data is based off salary figures for graduates without advanced degrees– the methodology makes no mention of ignoring graduates who were part of special admission pools (legacy, athlete, etc.) Has an employer ever sought to discount the value of your education by asking if you were admitted under special consideration?
The Businessweek ranking does a great job of showing how the market values various degrees. It’s true that the schools at the top of the ranking are self-selecting individuals that are predisposed to be successful, so the institutions can’t claim credit for all of the added value, but the discount the study completely on that basis would be short-sighted.
Less than 2% of all Division I football players get drafted into the NFL, and an average career in the league only lasts ~3 years. Thus, it’s prudent for any prospective recruit to view his degree as an insurance policy against the very likely possibility that he doesn’t enjoy a long and prosperous career as a professional athlete.
Furthermore, under current NCAA rules, the scholarship is the only legal compensation these athletes are allowed to receive for their rare and very valuable skills. Prospective recruits need to be aware of the Payscale data so they can effectively compare what they’re being offered.
Pops
Largely agree Whiskey – and thanks for pulling together this post – didn’t mean to diminish how awesome this is with my comment.
I’m just saying that this data isn’t accurately representative of the decision facing some athletes. Just as students with very valuable skills are preselected into great universities and are therefore better positioned to succeed post-graduation, the same goes for the very gifted athletes.
2% of D1 players may play in the NFL, but this is probably higher (or recruits at least view it as significantly higher) at some schools rather than others, and this simply has to be taken into account for the elite recruits. Even if I’m a three star linemen, I have to consider that Wisconsin, for example, is an “NFL feeder” school. Even if I make the NFL minimum of ~$300K for one season, that’s a pretty substantial leg up on the ~$50K average (being real generous there) for a comparable first year graduate.
I definitely agree though this is probably the best quantitative argument available for why a recruit should attend ND / Stanford. Even if the statistics behind it aren’t perfect, I would be hard pressed to find something better out there. Nice work.
The Biscuit
Pops and Joe, the other thing to consider is that the RELATIVE earnings levels likely remain accurate, even if the absolutes do not. So if ND is worth 1.4 times as much as school X, but players that don’t go to the league tend to earn .9 of what a non-player earns, the message remains valuable.
Of course, surveying players themselves and accounting for likelihood to get drafted, etc would be ideal, it’s just not possible. So this is our best data. And I would argue that ND is as likely as any big time program to put a player in the league. If you are NFL talent at ND, you will go. If not, not.
Joe Magarac
I agree with your point and with WhiskeyJack’s at 4:47 pm. Did not mean in any way to suggest that this was anything less than a great and insightful post – it is both. If I were recruiting for ND I would hammer the fact that if you accept an ND offer, you will be all but guaranteed a degree that will serve you better than any degree you might get at any other school, while also getting a shot at the pros that’s equal to or better than what you’ll get elsewhere. I am sure that the recruiters we do have are hammering these points too, and it’s nice to seem them quantified in this way, even if the data are not quite on point.
www.southbendblarney.com
Really good article. Good information, and I think that these types of numbers HAVE to be hammered in by the coaching staff. BK and his staff may be able to reach a few kids who have great heads on their shoulders with this. However, I tend to agree with Trey (I think it was Trey), who said that this recruiting tactic would effect the 3* guys more than the elite recruits (the ones that the SEC is stockpiling like Lohan stockpiles court appearances), and ND doesn’t have enough of. I mean, it sounds great, but I can’t imagine that a 16-to-17 year old elite recruit full of testosterone can be convinced of anything other than the fact he will be playing in “The League” (and it may be just as hard to convince the kid’s parents, truth be told). Going further, the SEC schools provide the easiest path to “The League” (and money) as far as a light class load. In other words, the perception is that picking a school like Alabama could be an easier way to make A LOT of cash–certainly an attractive option. We do live in a short-term thinking society, after all.
So, while graduating is (and should be) important, the whole point of going to college is to have a positive economic impact on your life, and the ND football program is just going to have to stand on its own two feet, and prove that it is just as attractive as a football option as the other elite schools in order to get the best recruits. Because, make no mistake, no matter what we want to believe, the best recruits are making the decisions based mainly on the health of a particular school’s football program, and what FOOTBALL can do for them.