Yes, yes, I am very well aware that games have already been played for two nights now, placing us well into week 6 and some of you may very well be reading this while Saturday’s games are in progress or done. Blame a work week from hell and my cat betraying me and rebooting my computer while attempting to do all the data entry last night. But hey, the good news is the rankings are done and are finally making their debut here at HLS.
For those unaware of what the NDtex25 is, I will do a quick breakdown for you. Basically, I wanted to come up with my own ranking system, try to keep it as simple as possible and see what happens throughout the season without tweaking the formula. Teams have a final score calculated by three categories: game results (W/L points), ANTY (Average Net Total Yards), and Average Turnover Margin. The W/L points take into account the result of the game, the rank of the opponent (which changes weekly along with the rankings), and the margin of victory (one possession win, two possession win, and a three or more possession win). ANTY is a little thing I came up with that takes just about everything into account: yards gained, yards allowed, punting yards, return yards allowed, etc. Along with the Turnover Margin, I average those two stats by the amount of games the teams play. W/L points are worth twice as much as ANTY and TO Margin rankings, and there is the score.
The only other very important thing to note is that I do not count any games against FCS (1-AA) opponents as well to make sure no team can benefit from playing Cupcake U. The downside there though is of course, should a team pull a Michigan, they aren’t punished as of right now.
If you’d like more exact details and formulas, check out the original post in which I came up with this insanity.
Every week I will post my rankings, the final scores of the teams, their rankings last week, and ranking comparisons from the AP and Coaches’ polls as well as the BCS once it’s released to see how I measure up. I will also point out where ND and each opponent stands as well, make fun of the worst ranked team, and point out any other observations that I notice for that week. Once the season is over, I’ll examine all the results and see if there are any ways I can improve my ranking formulas.
Thus far, the rankings started out rather crazy (Bowling Green ruled my rankings for a couple weeks…), but have started to stabilize a bit. For the most part, the teams in my 25 are pretty much the teams that you would expect, just in slightly different order. But enough rambling, let’s get to the results for the week:
| Rank | Team | Score | Last Week | AP Rank | Coaches’ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma State | 115.75 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 111.25 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | LSU | 111.25 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| 4 | Alabama | 106.75 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Clemson | 106.5 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 6 | Texas | 102.75 | 4 | 11 | 10 |
| 7 | Boise State | 101.5 | 12 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Georgia Tech | 101.5 | 3 | 13 | 13 |
| 9 | Auburn | 98.5 | 11 | 15 | 23 |
| 10 | Michigan | 98.25 | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Stanford | 97 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Wisconsin | 95 | 18 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 92.5 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 14 | Georgia | 91.75 | 46 | NR | NR |
| 15 | Ohio | 88.75 | 41 | NR | NR |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | 88 | 63 | NR | NR |
| 17 | Houston | 87.5 | 22 | NR | NR |
| 18 | Vanderbilt | 87 | 24 | NR | NR |
| 19 | Florida | 86.75 | 13 | 17 | 18 |
| 20 | USF | 86.5 | 6 | NR | NR |
| 21 | Michigan State | 85.5 | 19 | NR | 20 |
| 22 | San Diego State | 84.75 | 45 | NR | NR |
| 23 | Arizona State | 84.5 | 17 | 22 | 24 |
| 24 | South Carolina | 83.25 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 25 | Virginia Tech | 82.75 | 25 | 21 | 14 |
Dropped Out of NDtex25: Ohio State (16), FIU (20), Baylor (22), Houston (23), Mississippi State (24)
Just Missing the Cut: Missouri, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Illinois, Kansas State
Yes, start celebrating, ND is ranked 27th!
This week features 8 teams that are not ranked in at least one of the two polls. Of those 8, only 3 teams did not receive any votes at all in the polls: Ohio, Vanderbilt, and San Diego State. Now things are definitely starting to look a lot less crazy and more of a unique ranking.
But I’m sure just as I said that, someone is thinking, “Wait…where in the hell are Oregon and Arkansas?” While both these teams have found top 10 status in the polls, they currently sit at 41 and 38 respectively. In Oregon’s case, a loss to LSU started them off in the hole and thus far only have wins against two FBS opponents and one FCS opponent (which remember, doesn’t count). However, considering the curb stomping that they delivered to Cal, I would expect to see them in my top 25 very soon. Arkansas on the other hand had their first two wins against New Mexico and Troy, whom are both enjoying rankings near the bottom of the barrel. Those two weak wins have hurt them far more than even their loss to Alabama. Basically, you are left with a team with one quality win according to my rankings, and that isn’t enough for them to crack the top 25.
Oklahoma State holds on to their top ranking this week yet again, with Oklahoma taking over the number 2 slot. The SEC has finally made their big move up in the rankings with LSU and Alabama claiming the 3 and 4 spots, so start your chanting, SEC fans. The ACC rounds out the top 5 with the surprising Clemson. After Nebraska’s absolute failure last Saturday, the Big Ten barely cracks the top 10 with Michigan (vomit). The Big East takes the crown as worst BCS conference this week as only Pitt and USF remain ranked, and since Pitt already has one foot out of the door I count that as 1.5 teams which allows the Pac 12 two ranked teams to just slightly edge them out.
So where do ND’s opponents rank this week?
- USF: 20
- Michigan: 10
- Michigan State: 21
- Pitt: 17
- Purdue: 79
- Air Force: 76
- USC: 52
- Navy: 63
- Wake Forest: 40
- Maryland: 78
- Boston College: 115 (this is getting beyond comical)
- Stanford: 11
Oh, and your 120th ranked team in week 5: Akron once again! But don’t worry Zips, New Mexico is fighting very, very hard to take over your bottom-feeder ranking as they now only hold a .5 lead over you. Keep fighting the good fight!
Texan by birth, Irish by choice.
First-generation Domer and a former student manager, HLS podcast host, HLS Sim creator, Extra Life streamer, and technical problem haver. You can find more non-Notre Dame related writing on his Patreon.
- Epilogue - January 3, 2022
- HLS Podcast Finale - January 2, 2022
- The Final Fiesta: Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State NCAA ’14 Sim - December 31, 2021
Explanation behind Ohio being 15?
Ohio has benefited from a couple blowout wins and their only loss is a Rutgers team that is rated quite well in my rankings. This leaves their W/L points at a decently respectable rank of 43.
On top of that, their ANTY and TO Margin rankings are actually some of the best in nation (18th and 23rd).
Combined, this all places them squarely in the top 25 pack.
Most teams in the top 25 have spectacular W/L point rankings, however, very few of those teams also have great ANTY and TO Margin ranks. This early in the season, those other rankings can definitely help give a huge boost.
As more games are played, the wider the gaps in W/L points will become or at least, so has been the trend. Ohio’s schedule will be too weak to keep up with the rest of the nation and their opponents will continue to drop in rankings as well.
Hope that explains things!
I just LOOOVE seeing a gif of the state of TX on this site.;-)
Speaking of Texas, both they and Michigan are going to drop like a rock now that conference play has started. Mark my words.