Coach Kelly has been pretty clear, and pretty adamant, that there is no QB Controversy (again) at ND, and that Rees is the starter.
“Right now, Tommy is 6-1 as a starter,†Kelly said. “He’s obviously not a finished product; nobody is. He’ll continue to get better and better and we’ll continue to help him in terms of play calling and getting him in the right kind of situation so he can be successful.
“But no, we’re not in a situation right now where we need to think about what other quarterbacks are going to get in the game. Tommy is the starter.â€
But what many people are feeling, that Rees isn’t improving a whole lot, is made pretty clear when looking at statistics as well. And while I won’t continue to call for Crist’s insertion (was calling for it a lot after that ugly first half vs Pitt), the ‘progression’ of Rees as a QB isn’t all that comforting.
Production Declines
First, let’s look at raw production. Here are Rees’ passing yards in the first 4 games: 296 (in a half), 315, 161, 216. In the first 2 games, Rees was producing like mad. In the last two, he’s averaged just over 180 yards. While in the first 2 games, it was easy to forgive some of the TOs, because we were moving the ball so much, that hasn’t held up the last 2.
Efficiency is also an issue. Rees’ production per attempt was 8.7 and 8.1 in the first two games, and dropped to 6.2 and then 5.3 against MSU and Pitt respectively. Ouch.
And then there’s the Turnovers, which have really been the killer. While Rees’ production has decreased, his Turnovers have not. He has turned the ball over at least twice in every game this year, and many of those have led to significant point swings in those games. Thus far in the year, Rees has 9 turnovers, which is more than many teams have thus far in the year. And the TOs continue to be the same problems – bad decisions/reads, and holding onto the ball too long in the pocket. So long as Tommy puts the ball on the ground and into the arms of defenders, this team is going to continue to struggle. I kept thinking it an anomaly – this seriously can’t happen AGAIN, can it? – yet there it is, time and again.
Points Earned vs Lost Experiment
As an exercise, I took all of ND’s drives this year and tried to determine how many points Rees had ‘Earned’ and how many points he ‘Lost’. To do this, I made some assumptions:
-If we drove inside the 20 and we turned the ball over but it was NOT Rees’ fault (missed FG, someone else fumbles), I gave Tommy 3 points
-If we drove inside the 20 and Rees turned the ball over, I counted it as Rees ‘losing’ us 3 points
-If Rees turned the ball over and the other team scored as a result, I counted those points against Rees
-On any drive where we scored points, I credited Rees with them (outside of the Gray run against Pitt, because Rees had nothing to do with it)
-If the Turnover wasn’t Rees’ fault (eg Jones not turning around to catch the ball) I didn’t count it against Rees
Of course, in some of those cases inside the 20 we had a legit chance at a TD, but I needed to make some kind of assumption. The MI fumble inside the 5 was probably more likely a TD than a FG, but I felt like the assumption of 3 points made everything a bit more conservative, so I went with it. I know this is a bit convoluted, but I am trying to figure out how much Tommy has been helping vs hurting our cause through all the TOs, and this is what we get:
Points Earned Points Lost Net
USF: 20 0 20
MI: 31 13 18
MSU: 24 3 21
Pitt: 7 6 1
Given the absurd number of times he’s turned the ball over, I am amazed that Rees hasn’t actually cost us more points. When adjusting for all of those factors, Rees was consistently helping us earn ~20 points per game up until Pitt, when he clearly had his worst game of the year. This doesn’t mean that the Turnovers in the first few games didn’t ultimately cost us something in those games. TOs = Field Position, and Field Position leads to points one way or the other more often than not. So this isn’t a perfect metric by a long shot. But, leading up to the Pitt game, the TOs weren’t immediately contributing to net-negative points.
The glaring issue is Michigan. The Turnovers that Rees had in that game pretty much cost us a W there. 13 points given away in a game that went down to the wire is a huge issue. Rees’ end-of-game drive was solid, and he deserves credit there. And the D’s meltdown in the 4th can certainly be blamed for that loss as well. But a big hunk of the issue was the 13 points given away in Tommy’s TOs.
This is a weird stat, but I think it’s interesting to see where the Turnovers are having direct impact vs not.
Net Net
I’m not sure where I fall on Rees vs Anyone. Coach was pretty quick to yank Crist and he hasn’t looked back. He’s obviously sticking with Rees because he sees something there that he didn’t get with Crist. But at some point, if the TOs continue they will result in something more like Michigan and less like MSU/Pitt. And when that happens, I am predicting: controversy.
- (Re)Introducing: DANCING LEPRECHAUNS - August 29, 2019
- Ticket Auction: ND vs USC - August 22, 2019
- No Respect! - December 14, 2018
Tax
You make great points, I think it’s he’s a sophomore that needs to mature for the future of this team…I also believe hebthinks his defense is good enough to win games ( I know right) while tommy learns
reimero
I think the team has more faith in Rees than in Crist. Yes, production is down, but on several occasions, Rees has put together late-game drives to put the team up (it’s not on Rees to defend 70 yards of field for 30 seconds, nor was it his job to cover Ronald Johnson.) Yes, “it could have been avoided”, etc. But when the team *needs* something, Rees has been able to find that spark. Just my $0.02.
The Biscuit
Agree. He deserves credit for the late game march against UM. He had effectively won the game there, and the D gave it away. But without the 13 points he ‘lost’ us earlier in the game, that last minute march isn’t needed…so, goes both ways. But he does show grit and poise, no doubt.
canuck75
As I commented in the recap post, it is nice to have a legitimate discussion without hyberbole or rancor.
The Mich loss must be placed on the D. 80 yds in 23 secs. If we faced that exact situation 13 times do we not believe we finish 12-1?
I was totally open minded on this issue although my gut told me Tommy should be the starter. So when Dayne folded so quickly, I believe that Kelly’s gut also told him that he had erred on the side of experience but that Tommy was now the better option.
I was reminded by someone else that while Navy was embarrassing our D last year, Crist was choking against an average defence. I think that was the first seed in Kelly’s brain.
I agree that Tommy must continue to improve, and he will by simply cutting down the ints.
But this past weekend the best qb on the planet threw 4 ints, and Stephen Garcia of South Carolina ( a 7 yr starter it seems) threw 4.
Finally, give some credit to opposing teams. We do not play a soft schedule. Michigan is now crowing about their defence as is South Florida.
The Pitt comments were that they feel they can be a very good team.
If Tommy fails to close out a game, or like both Clausen and Dayne, takes bad sacks that end chances, then we can revisit this issue.
But my final comment is that we haven’t had anyone thread the needle on those 20 yders to Eiffert for a long time. That’s the kid I want with the game on the line.
The Biscuit
My issue with your comment is ‘continue to get better’. To me, it looks like he’s getting worse.
notredamegrad
On Crist choking against an average defense last year v. Navy – yes, that was a very poor game for him. But Pitt’s defense was one of the worst in the country when Rees choked against them for about 53 minutes Saturday, completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing (by sheer luck only) one INT and losing a fumble. The offense still put up 17 pts. against Navy (a stouter defense than Pitt’s), which is more than they managed Saturday with Rees against Pitt – our defense won that game by holding them to 12 after Rees dug a deep hole and scurried out of it on his last drive.
canuck75
The problem with stats after just a few games is that they are misleading to say the least. That was the best pass rush we faced this year,hardly the sign of a bad pass D. And somehow they took Floyd out of the game which means at the very least, that he was apparently covered. Maybe Pitt played better than they are, but their whole D looked pretty good to me, but lets wait a few weeks.
As an aside, we need to throw to a covered Floyd anyway-he’s the best player on the field and will win 2 of 3 battles. I would risk an int on a long pass to Floyd double covered. I loved watching Golden beat double coverage the past couple of years and Floyd is certainly just as capable
WilhelmD
Which may be Rees’ most fundamental problem. I am not sure he has the arm strength to consistently hit ANY long passes. Haven’t seen enough vertical game to truly evaluate, but the lack thereof may well speak volumes.
paul sica
ND will not ever be great again untill they have a QB who can run and throw. Rees is not the guy!!
Whiskeyjack
Hendrix and Golson don’t have the fundamental skills yet to compete with Rees and Crist for the starting job. They may see some meaningful minutes if and when Kelly thinks the season is lost, but we’re a long way from that point. Thus, it’s Rees v. Crist for the foreseeable future.
Crist and Rees are both going to turn the ball over (though Crist would probably do so less frequently). The big difference is mental toughness. Crist has repeatedly folded under pressure after making mistakes, while Rees continues to bounce back and lead the team on clutch game-winning/ icing drives (Michigan, State, and Pitt). Crist simply lacks the mental toughness necessary to play QB, so it’s Rees by process of elimination.
We don’t need Rees to make huge strides in order to win out. He simply has to (1) improve his ball security, and (2) get better at identifying the 1-on-1 matchups. Let’s see how he does against Purdue and AF.
Mark C
I guess “repeatedly folding” would be at least 3 instances of that happening, So I tried to go back and find 3 cases Crist did so. Not against Michigan whom he lead us back from 2 scores down (on two long throws that Rees will never be able to make), not against Michigan State (his last td pass to floyd was another throw Rees can’t make). So I guess you’re pointing to Stanford, Navy and the second quarter against South Florida? I can’t say that it is a fair assessment of Crist.
Whiskeyjack
You’re correct that the Michigan game is the one instance where Crist led us to what should have been a come-from-behind victory.
I respectfully disagree with your assessment of the 2010 MSU game; he folded in the 4th quarter after that early TD to Floyd. Add that to Stanford, Navy, and the 1st half against USF, and you have an undeniable pattern of crumbling under pressure.
We’ve all read about Dayne “deer in the headlights” look, and he had it in the USF game after his pick. Everything goes downhill from there. Kelly thought the game was still within reach, so he pulled the broken QB for a guy who could give us a shot, which is precisely what Rees proceeded to do.
notredamegrad
On the 2010 MSU game, you’re going to call a 4-TD/369-yard performance with 1 INT “folding” because Crist stalled briefly and didn’t put more than 7 points on the board in the 4th quarter? Rees has only ever had one 4-TD game (with 3 INTs – one very important – against Tulsa!).
I’m pretty certain Rees failed to deliver a TD for about 53 minutes on Saturday. Would you call that “folding,” as well? Come on – Crist didn’t fold against MSU last year; his defense left him out to dry after he put 28 pts. up without any help from his backs.
Mark C
You’re in the tank for Rees, I understand, but saying Crist folded in the Michigan State stretches the truth. Did he makes plays to win the game in regulation or overtime, no? I’d have to go back to watch those drives, but they missed a couple of key first downs by just a yard as I recall, and that wasn’t all on him.
What I do see in Rees is qb who excels at the getting the ball out quickly, but can’t make the plays if his first read isn’t open. Clearly he’s Kelly’s guy, and they were able to build an identity last year with him at helm as a team with could win with strong defense, the ability to run the ball, and mediocre quarterback play. But I really fail to see Rees’ upside and think he’s much too easy gameplan for.
Whiskeyjack
You’re both splitting hairs. I’m well aware of Rees’ limitations, and I’m not happy that he’s the best we have right now. But the only reason he’s playing is because he has the requisite mental toughness to shrug off his mistakes and lead us on clutch drives against adversity, while Crist does not. There’s plenty of evidence to support that theory, and it’s really the only plausible explanation for why Crist is sitting on the bench behind Rees.
Crist had a great game against MSU for 3 quarters and scored early in the 4th. One could definitely argue that he “did enough” for us to win. But if you go back and watch the 4th quarter and OT, he clearly folded. You could see it in his face, his body language, and his play. Tommy doesn’t do that, which is why he’s starting.
notredamegrad
I appreciate your commitment to Rees’s poise, but poise does not equal production. I haven’t seen “plenty of evidence” to support your theory of mental toughness/weakness (some, perhaps, but not enough to convince) and I think there are several other plausible explanations for Rees starting right now.
You’ll hold Stanford and Navy against Crist, and I’ll hold USC and Pitt (’11) against Rees, and you’ll say, “yeah, but we won those,” and I’ll say, “no thanks to Rees.” Rees wins because he’s riding an outstanding o-line, a dominant defense, a much-strengthened running game, and receivers with a year’s more experience. As Driskell points out at ISD, compared to this point last year and “despite these improvements around the quarterback, the Irish offense is actually scoring less points (23.0 in 2010 vs. 22.5 in 2011), is going for slightly fewer yards (426.3 in 2010 vs. 423.5 in 2011), and is only slightly better at yards per play (5.9 in 2010 vs. 6.0 in 2010).” Why? Turnovers. Rees.
Irish96
I’m a Rees supporter, he comes through when we need him too, even though he’s killing us early with the turnovers. (Two-Turnover-Tommy) But, I would LOVE to see us start working Hendrix or Golson as a change of pace quarterback. IF we can get a 2-3 score lead on Purdue, get one of those guys in there running some plays. Then, opposing defenses will have to prepare for it, if they know we can bring in one of those guys at any moment. Right now, Rees’ lack of mobility makes us an easier team to game-plan for. Pitt was well coached and prepared to limit Rees’ effectiveness.
trey
Did you watch the michigan game? There is no situation i would ever take out the starters with this team
Erik '04
Which is too bad, because the backups need playing time at some point, especially at corner. Lo Wood and Bennett Jackson need reps when it doesn’t matter if they make a big mistake. I think Irish96 might also be referring to being up by 3 TDs with 5 minutes left in the game, not the whole 4th quarter.
MarkG
Watched part of the Cincinnati game last Thursday night. Great to see what our offense could look like with a QB who could run the zone read … i.e., with a QB who can run (without appearing to have a refrigerator strapped to his back).
Look, I think Rees is great considering where we are, and would love it if he became some sort of undersized, Seabiscuit type of legend (the 20-16 score board will always warm my heart), but the future is the Hendrix or Golson type of dual threat. We may not see either of any time soon (though we had better be far enough ahead at some point to get Hendrix in), but it will be amazing how the whole offense could open up with one of them in.
Has Been
I completely agree. I’ve followed BK teams since my days at Grand Valley. What I don’t understand how BK has suddenly chnaged his ways since he has been at ND. He takes pride in being a HC/QB coach, and has always, always always, had a running threat QB who can run his uptempo offense. (Curt Anes/GV (Hesiman winner of d2),Dan Levfour (Broke all of tim tebow’s running and throwing records at CMU), Ben Mauk (Cincy QB who transeferred in and ran BK’s spread perfectly, even tho he transferred from Tulane but didn’t have to sit out, Tony Pike who was more of a passer, but “Hey next man in” (was the 5th stringer to start that year and ended up as a heisman candidate, Zach Collaros dual threat qb who reminds me a ton of Curt Anes. Then he gets to ND, the hurry up offense is a thing of the past and now all I hear is Tommy is “learning process, only 7 starts” crap. I am a huge BK follower and hope he does well at ND, I just would hate to see him fired bc he didnt play a qb that fits his system. REES IS NOT IT! Does he even attempt to pretend he may run for a few extra yards, just to keep the defense honest? Hell No! DO NOT UNDERSTAND! Running qb’s makes the defense play honest and can keep the chains moving. I bet BK has used “You guys are the dumbest smart kids in the country” (in his Boston accent) probally 85 times since he’s stepped foot on campus. Why wait til ND loses one or has 3 more to’s in the first half for him to realize this isn’t why they hired you. How does Oregon put up 59 points and they play a sophomore qb??? Thats why Jack hired BK.
Erik '04
To be fair, BK mentioned that he HAD to score quickly and create an exciting offense in order to fill seats at Cincy. Not the case at ND. Also, he now has a defense (particularly front 7) that he can rely on to win games, so again he doesn’t have to score quickly. I think he knows that he can win games with Tommy and this current offensive system, but isn’t sure if he can win games with one of the younger QBs yet. Sure, they might be able to run the same system he had at GVSU/CMU/Cincy, but if they can’t do it well enough to win then there’s no point in playing them yet.
Brad
Right now, Tommy Rees is the least physically talented qb on the roster. However, the kid is mentally tough. He makes terrible mistakes, and comes right back swinging. And he is not afraid to make a read and deliver the football. Those are big positives.
Kelly is trying to build a program, and its obvious that he does not feel he can get what he wants from Crist. I will give Kelly the benefit of the doubt, as the 3rd winningest active coach in college football, that he knows what he wants from his qb.
But what is important to realize is young qbs turn over the ball. If we went to Hendrix or Golson, they are going to turn the ball over too. However, few qbs have the kind of completion percentage, or win rate, the Rees has. So unless Kelly wants to put Crist back in, right now, turnovers are simply going to continue.
THE REASON that Rees is starting is because he comes from a football family, and better understands the philosophical or conceptual approach behind a spread offense, and knows how to effectuate it better than the other, more physically talented, qbs. Until that changes, he will be the starter. I will try to have more on this in the sideline later this week, but essentially, Rees ‘gets’ this offense better right now than anyone else that Kelly can put out there. If he didn’t, he just wouldn’t be starting. This team still has a lot, LOT of foot-shooting issues, but over the season, they are all still correctible.
Other than that, it was nice to see this team finally find a way to win ugly. That, in itself, can be a large sign of growth for this program, because it can become contagious. I hope we don’t have lots of ugly wins to look forward to, but its far better than a UM game where we play great football for 43 minutes and then fall apart.
A W is a W, and right now I’ll take it.
The Biscuit
Love the W. Don’t mind an ugly win at all. Mind that only one of the problems that was plaguing this team (short-distance situations) has been corrected. Penalties? Nope. TOs? Nope. And at the same time, offensive production has dropped significantly. Not a good sign. Making me nervous.
SDI
I think Rees has looked great at times this year, so so at others. But I”m not sure I would call a QB that averages 2 or more turnovers a game mentally tough. He threw one pick against Pitt and had 2 or 3 other bonehead throws. He was mentally tough on one drive, but not so much on several others. Sure he was mentally strong enough to eke out a victory, but his head was in a better place the rest the game it shouldn’t have even been close.
Has Been
How can a D1 athlete, and a qb at ND look so shaky when they roll out of the pocket? I hold my breath everytime he is forced out of the pocket because I know bad things will happen. Mentally tough? A mentally tough qb would pull the ball down and gain 3 yards instead of throwing it over the head of his receiver or behind his wide open TE at the 3 yard line. And how did they get the 4th and 1? Looked to me like it was stopped well short. where’s the mental toughness for a qb when it’s 4th and 1 and the second effort to push through the line of scrimmage or make it, or find a crack so that there is no need to bring the chains out. In the last 12 years since I’ve been watching Brian Kelly’s teams play, REES is by far the worst qb he has had to work with for his system. This is coming from Zach Collaros, who had zero scholarship offers to play qb in college and Dan Levfour who had zero scholarship offers, period. So the argument about playing his redshirt freshman or true freshman is garbage. They will make turnovers, yes. But they will run the offense at a much faster and efficient rate.
TGriff
I think you’re confusing “mentally tough” with “good qb”. Maybe Rees should have had the “second effort to push through the line of scrimmage.” But that’s not mental toughness. Nor is mental toughness making zero mistakes.
Mental Toughness is about making mistakes and then bouncing back from them, as Tommy has time and time again. He throws tons of INT’s and makes other boneheaded moves, but he comes out the next drive to WIN THE GAME. Unlike Crist.
James
“THE REASON that Rees is starting is because he comes from a football family, and better understands the philosophical or conceptual approach behind a spread offense, and knows how to effectuate it better than the other, more physically talented, qbs”
Crist had 9 turnovers in 9 games last year. Reese has 9 in 3 games. How is that a better understanding of the offense? He does know the “conceptual approach” doesnt involve throwing it to the other team, right?
Has Been
Dayne Crist has got to be looking up in the webster’s dictionary what “Double standard” means. And if it’s an updated one, it may have his picture in it.
Not sure if I agree with the “Football family” argument. Football Family, would also teach the qb things like, “Cherish the football, turnovers kill teams” or “Son, always have an internal clock when you are inthe pocket, feel the pressure”…..or “Son, if it’s 2nd and 4 and the defense is giving you 5 yards with your feet, take it son, take it! Must move the chains!” Not, let’s just chuck it everywhere and only look to our AA WR.
Brad
What I am saying is that the kids football IQ is higher than the other QBs on the roster right now. Rees has been running a spread offense since he was a freshman ih high school, and been throwing some of the same route combinations for 6 years. I think that right now he gets what Kelly wants to do with his offense better than the others. He certainly isn’t the starter because he is a better athlete than the others. Its obvious that he turns the ball over WAY too much. But if the other QBs understood the offense as well as he did, and are better athletes, then why are they not starting? The only logical conclusion is that they don’t have as good a grip on offense as Rees.
notredamegrad
Or that Kelly doesn’t think flipping QBs will help the coherence and stability of the offense at this point in the season, when they’ve just barely found their footing. He painted himself into a corner when he pulled Crist and started Rees against UM. Can’t go back now, unless Rees commits some sort of catastrophe.
James
I would argue 9 turnovers in 3 games is a catastrophe
James
He’s got a good grip on throwing it to the other team, Ill give him credit for that.
Has Been
It was my understanding that Rees was a Weis recruit? Was he not? If he has been running the “spread offense” for 6+ years, than help me god, what did they see in him??? I’m not sayinbg he’s not a saavy kid, can bounce back and make 50% of the right throws, when he needs to. I get that. But if he is going to play like a freshman (wrong reads, slowing the pace down, “simplifying the offense for him”, leading the nation in TO’s, then why not play a freshman anyway? I’m not trying to be a Rees hater. I just think ND fans have lowered their expectations considerably. And as a coach, at least I have something to point to. Just have an uneasy feeling, that the same type of mistakes are going to happen next year and the year after if he sticks with Rees. Great #2 guy, just not the type of qb for this offense.
Squeeze77
Let’s not forget my particular pet peeve with this team – Special Teams. We have guys who will someday play on Sundays going up against accountants and Liberal Arts majors. The roughing penalty and the out of bounds kick- off lead directly to points, not to mention that Ruffer is batting .500.
E-Man
Maybe it’s just me, but is anyone else noticing how the play clock always seems to be down to 2 or less when Tommy gets the snap this year? What happened to the idea of the quickly moving offense?
I can’t remember if Crist did it any better last year, but what I thought was going to be a team advantage –playing quicker– seems to be dragging.
The Biscuit
I think Kelly has adjusted that part of his philosophy. He definitely pushed Crist for a much quicker pace last year, then let up when TR took over, and has continued that more measured pace. Seeing how we perform at the current pace (a bit erratic) I am glad he’s not trying to add speed to the execution. (ugh)
borromini
Kelly was seen on the sidelines of the Pitt game getting antsy and upset when Rees didn’t get the offense set and snapping quick enough.
Has Been
I don’t think waiting until 2 sconds left on the play clock benefits the offense at all. All it does is allows the defense to lineup in a “dummy” set, and the second rees takes his eyes of the Defense to catch the ball, they switch it. This was evident in the Pitt game and is not rocket science. I think as Rees changes the play with 10 seconds or less, it’s at this time he mentally locks on to his receiver, and does not go through his progressions. Not to mention you add pressure and then it really gets pretty. this was done very easily for the 120th ranked Defense to do to a potentially potent offense. Also, what happened to “Next guy in” mentality that BK supposedly had? Open competition every week, no starter safe attitude? It’s going to take 3-4 more TO’s from Rees in one single game for BK to switch, just too bad it will most likely come as a defeat. I remember telling my wife watching the PITT game, after the second TO, that this drive for REES will determine his playing time the rest of the season. ND ended up scoring, but I think everyone was thinking the same thing.
Erik '04
BK has also said that it’s more important for Tommy to have time to check into the right play than to run at a fast tempo. Despite snapping with only a second or two on the clock, they’re still running a no-huddle, which puts pressure on the defense to be ready at any moment for the ball to be snapped. BK wants Tommy to get to the line of scrimmage with about 18 seconds on the play clock, so he can read the D, and change the protections or the routes if necessary. He’s been doing that pretty well, but Pitt was doing a good job of disguising their pre-snap reads. Kelly said the sack/fumble was the result of Pitt showing a look that Tommy hadn’t seen before, and he just misread where the pressure would be coming from. He went on to say that Tommy learned from that, and “doesn’t make the same mistake twice.” Now, one could argue that he’s made a few similar late throws across his body that were intercepted, but I see BKs point that Tommy learns from each new look he gets and as a young QB (Hendrix/Golson would be no different) he’s going to see a lot of looks he’s never seen before.
Joe Magarac
It’s not just you – I’ve noticed this, too. I think part of the reason is that Rees is allowed to look at the defense and call an audible. The offense generally lines up fairly quickly but then there is a delay before the snap while Rees turns and yells at the linemen and receivers. This doesn’t give us lots of plays, but it does keep the defense from easily substituting, which is something.
James
If Reese is the answer the question must be “How can you ensure a .500 season.”
canuck75
That’s the kind of stupid comment that belongs on Rock’s House.First of all, spell his name right. Secondly, at 6-1 the debate is not about the win loss percentage.
On to a substantive point;many seem to take it as a given that Tommy’s arm strength is inadequate. In the preseason one of the coaches was quoted as saying his arm was quite strong, but on a practical basis, it is readily observable that he zips the ball 20-25 yds on the proverbial rope. Most importantly, his accuracy is great. Remember the throw to goodman over top of a defender on the last drive against USC?
If he keeps turning the ball over 2-3 times a game then it is something that must be dealt with. But if he gets it down to 1 a game or less, we win.
James
You’re right about my misspelling. Ill just call him Turnover Tommy. Did I spell that right?
canuck75
Yes and you confirmed that you are a jerk.
Vairish84
I think we already have the controversy. Rees is still a young QB. Hendrix and Golson are younger. Crist is actually less experienced at this point as well. Thus, all of them would be going through growing pains.
As I have read the boards, I think the problem the fan base is having is that we see Rees, and don’t see the upside. It is not like a young Quinn or Clausen where there were mistakes in execution or trying to do too much. Rees fumbles are bad, he does not seem to be able to step it up against certain defenses. There may be a sense that he has hit the ceiling that everyone talks about for him, and thus we are less willing to take his two turnovers per game in return for reaching the ceiling. If he is at the ceiling, the turnovers should be minimal. Also, against Pitt he was lucky he didn’t throw two more picks. They hit the defenders in the hands.
I do think he was gun shy in the second half or had been ordered to be gun shy.
I was a Crist supporter, but I don’t think musical QBs here is the answer. I am not going to play psychologist, but Crist tends to throw a tougher ball to catch, a little off in many cases. When Rees gets the throw off quickly to the right read, he is accurate and throws a much more catchable ball. I think disguised defenses that force him to his second or even third option are where he has problems and where is arm strength issue (which is probably average but not BCS) comes through.
Personally, I think it should be Rees until the break with Crist as #2. At the break, Kelly needs to work with Hendrix/Golson and decide who should be #2. Rees still starts after the break, but we try to find places, regardless of the score, where we work the winner of that battle in for a series or two. If Rees’ plateau has been reached already, then make the switch to Hendrix/Golson. If he plays well, and continues to improve, no switch.
As much as I like Crist and I am not sure he got a full shot at starting this year, he has at most one year left. We need to be thinking longer term.
canuck75
One more semi-related comment; We have an interesting game to watch this Thurs-Pitt and USF. Based upon how they played us, Pitt should win a close game-24-17.
If Pitt blows them out it underscores that Pitt is better than we thought. If USF blows them out, then it might be fair to say that we have regressed. Either way, an interesting game to observe from our perspective
The Biscuit
We all need to cheer for USF. Teams that beat us need to win. Except Michigan. Eff em
Dan
The only thing I’d say is that the point system doesn’t account for the defense bailing out Rees, but I suppose that’d be the same case for Crist too, so it’s somewhat a moot point.
Things that stick in the back of my mind though are like the fumble he had against Michigan when we were going to go in for the jugular and go up 31 – 10. That play drove me bonkers, and it still does.
James
Anyone know what the record for most TO’s in a single season is?
Erik '04
A lot.
Lar
i understand that coach wants Tommy to be the guy but light bulb is not on and sb now. hendrix has been with team over a year and is not game ready…why not? if tommy can’t/won’t run…spread is dead and it is not a spread. teams know this
Jeremy
I have been thinking about Hendrix the past couple of weeks, just generally how is he not ready. I think the issue is game time experience. Hendrix might understand the offense and know how to run it well, and in that sense, be ready. But it is difficult to say he is more ready than Rees or Crist. If we could win some games by enough of a margin to Kelly to let either Hendrix or Golson play, we might find out that Hendrix is ready. However, I think it is coaching suicide to switch to either Golson or Hendrix after two losses when Rees is 6-1 as a starter. Again, there are lots of reasons for that record that can’t be credited to Rees (one reason I was a Crist supporter this summer), but you can’t ignore the record either and switch to someone with no game experience.
Lar
Good point about Tommy’s record…i thnik ur correct. I feel that team’s future with spread philosphy must have a running QB. Tommy may be holding the place and another 8-5 record is coming because coach is trying to win and train at same time. Probably should resolve to 8-5 record and train more fully. Younger guys will get training when losing starts. I don’t see blowout wins coming.
Scranton Dave
Rees has no upside and comits too many turnovers. People want to give him credit for the last drive against Pitt, but that game was only close because he was terrible for 3 quarters. Crist probably would never be as good as I thought he could be, but I would rather see him than Rees.
James
good post
Paul Hass
The problem right now is that the offense is running on less than all the cylinders, because the zone read and QB running threat is not being utilized. Without it there is at least one extra defender against the pass and defending the other runners. The loss includes the lost first downs and yards from the QB running AND covered receivers (rarely is there a wide open receiver)AND our one running back can be the focus of the run defense without fear. They laugh at the zone read play (and all its derivatives) because EVERYONE knows that we will NOT run the QB. Does nobody remember our excitement at Kelly being hired due to the high power offense he would be bringing from Cincy? Have we forgotten what it involved? Has Kelly forgotten what it could do? It is evident that the coaches, the writers on this blog and many fans have decided that the moxy which Rees clearly has trumps points, points, and more points. We are wasting the efforts of 21 players every game because of our fear of giving the reins of a potent offense to SOMEBODY. RUN THE OFFENSE; ALL OF IT. IF TOMMY TURNOVER IS YOUR CHOICE THEN FINE; JUST RUN HIM SOME, NOT ALOT; JUST SOME. Please, try it.
Scranton Dave
Tommy turnover cant run, and it boggles my mind that he has so much support. I think the only reason Kelly wont pull him is because of his ego, as he would think it makes him look bad for pulling Crist after 1 half.
irishlover
88 teams have less turnovers than Rees, by himself. Insert Crist after the next two turn overs are committed. Just see how the development goes for both, Dayne looks hungry on the sidelines. Let loose the man that you were starting in August.
Has Been
I agree completely. DC had a humbling experience to begin the season and I hope he gets another shot. I just dont see TR “cleaning” up these mistakes anytime soon and I hope BK puts DC in if he commits two plus to’s in one half. Ego or not, I think he understands that he must win games NOW.
Jack
Dayne and Tommy are both good quarterbacks, but they have their limitations, especially laboring under the uncongenial system implemented by Coach Kelly, who is a good coach but also has limitations, quite more than I expected. I prefer Dayne’s play, in general, and think he offers much to the team, and I hope he gets to play more.
Dayne’s gotten a rough deal from the Kelly, apparently the only player to take a serious hit from two early losses that exposed MANY GENERAL (Hey there, coaches!) problems with the team, the worst having little to do with him, clearly, as defects roll on and on without him.
I don’t know why Kelly gave the quick hook or why he REALLY so adamantly supports Tommy, but he recently commented that it had to do with “production” leading to Tommy’s 6-1 record as a starter. Statistically, that simply does not track. Against South Florida, Dayne put up 95 passing yards in one half of play, not very impressive, but hardly the major factor in that 30 minute fiasco. Apparently, that was grossly, unacceptably UNproductive. BUT, BUT, BUT. In Tommy’s 6 wins, he totaled 1070 yards, for a super-productive average of… Oh!… only 89 yards per half. Something doesn’t compute. Could Tommy’s yards be longer than Dayne’s. Michigan Stadium is called “The Big House.” Oh, dear, but Tommy lost that one. Even though his production was WAY beyond his other starts. Perhaps things other than a quarterback can make a difference?
At least Kelly MAY have a reality-based, if hidden for diplomacy, reason to go with Rees. What is intolerable, though, are “fans” of Notre Dame dealing Crist a rotten and undeserved reputation, specifically accusations of lack of heart.
The kid is so great, the paragon of what a Notre Dame man should be, his heart is in exactly the right place. He matriculated to ND even though he knew Jimmy Clausen was already the star starter, only one year senior, and that the competition to play would be severe. He served in the trenches when Clausen played almost every desperate second of every Weis game. Dayne was severely injured in his first chance to really shine, and then spent more than half a year recuperating – faster than expected – to learn a new system for a new coach who hadn’t recruited him and who publicly held him to demanding expectations. Injured once again, he saw a younger player take his place alongside a now more empathetic and encouraging coach. He worked himself back to starter only to be yanked when everything around him went wrong, and he now sits back in the trenches, being “professional.” That’s real guts. That’s real heart. That’s real fortitude. And anyone who doesn’t get it doesn’t understand real life.
ndirishrick
Are you all crazy. Wasn’t it Reese that drove the length of the field against Mich and SCORED in the last 30 sec? Wasn’t it our Defense that gave it right back? Wasn’t it Crist that in the first game couldn’t move the team? Wake up…Reese is a SOPH. and has only been in a total of 8 games…4 last year as a TRUE freshman and 4 this year.Give the kid a break. GO IRISH
The Biscuit
Rees also kept the UM game close by turning the ball over, repeatedly.
CJW
Finally some mostly reasonable conversation on this topic!
Before the season, I said to people that our best chance for BCS would be with a productive Crist at the helm…….It didnt happen.
We can ‘compare’ Rees’ and Daynes stats but it is really pointless at this time as Crist isn’t playing.
All I can go by is what I see, which his when Rees is under center the wole team calms down and plays better. That is one of his intangibles that I like.
I really like Cris and hoped for his success. I also favor dual threat QBs……but obviously we are no ready for the younger guys to start……..
I expect growth and improvement from Rees……people who dont see his upside need to go look at some of his better halfs were he has put up close to 300 yards!
Also in the NFL U see teams run the spread without a running QB so those who say it can’t be done are ignorant. Kelly plays kids when they are ready to play and is not shy about inserting youngsters….expect we will see some change of pace QB soon as well as some other options on the special teams.
Last point……how many people expected defense and D recruiting like this from Kelly??? No one thats who. Just chill when this offense starts clicking we will bea power again and not just for 1 season!
Jack
“All I can go by is what I see, which his when Rees is under center the wole team calms down and plays better. That is one of his intangibles that I like.”
This is most clear in the example of Jonas Gray. Note that when Crist was on the field for the opening drive in the South Florida game and led the team 79 yards in 7 plays, never not gaining territory, Gray was so rattled that he fumbled a touchdown for the other team. Rees, instead, during the Pittsburgh game, having failed in three drives to do more than fumble himself a field goal for the opposition, had such a calming influence on Gray, that Jonas broke off the longest touchdown run in over a decade.
Tommy is just SO magical!
Sy Nguyen
I think the stats you list aren’t telling the big picture…the first two games forced Tommy to throw more…we were behind against USF and then Michigan was a tough battle throughout.
For State, we had a comfortable lead and needed to manage the clock.
Against Pitt, our running game was clicking more so than our passing, but once again, when behind, Tommy stepped up and played well.
Tommy has probably been very reflective of a good situational QB, which illustrates his intelligence rather than a producer of stats (ie, like Denard Robinson).
The Biscuit
Michigan was a blowout until the 4th. Don’t think he was ‘forced to throw’ there. USF is really the only game where that was the case. Against Pitt he played bad, until the last drive.
Jack Willits
Everett Golson.
Lou N 1961 grad
Tommy’s progression reminds me of Joe Montana’s and all the comments including arm strength are the same. We will see what we will see.
irishize
Tommy wins; Dayne loses. End of discussion.
Scranton Dave
Wow, you Rees supporters couldnt be more ignorant. Arguing with you people is like banging my head off a wall.
Matt Q. (DMQ)
I bet you’re pleasant at dinner parties. “Rees supporters?” Seriously? What’s happened to the ND fanbase that it’s as polarized as national politics?
StepUP
Why doesn’t anyone talk about accuracy and touch? Rees has that over Crist. Obviously Rees is having problems if he can’t hit his primary target. All young qb’s do. He will improve on that. Will Crist ever have the same accuracy and touch as Rees. Probably not.
Scranton Dave
I’m sorry if you dont like the way I phrased that Matt, but I just dont get why you guys want him to be the QB. His W/L record as a starter to me is very misleading. he cannot be given any credit for the USC game last year, and I believe they win all 4 of those games at the end of last year with Crist with the running game and defense playing that well. Crist gets one half but Rees could commit turnover after turnover? I dont get it, well I actually believe Kellys ego is getting in the way here and that’s why he wont go back to Crist.
Matt Q. (DMQ)
You need only think long-term to understand why Kelly’s playing Rees over Crist. As soon as the USF game was lost, a chance at a “very special season” was lost for Notre Dame, and Kelly calculated: 1) That he can probably win just as much with Rees as with Crist and 2) With Rees, he’s got the opportunity to grow the kid out of the mistakes and then have a really solid #1QB in case Golson/Hendrix don’t live up to potential. With Crist, he’s got less long-term pay-off.
Jack
A very plausible reason – but still a guess, as other factors (continuity, stubbornness, etc. also make sense) – for sticking with Tommy, though it doesn’t adequately explain the quick hook for Dayne, which was well before the game was lost. For that initial choice, more plausible hypotheses given the evidence seem:
1) Kelly lost control and panicked a bit – purple face, ranting and screaming, snap change;
2) Kelly was never really hot for Dayne – restrained praise, intense criticism, demanding expectations, clearly all changed standards when Tommy was qb.
Scranton Dave
Matt- If he was thinking long term after the chance at a special season was lost as you say, then he shouldve went to Hendrix. I dont see the upside for Rees that Hendrix and Golson are said to have. Is it possible that both Golson and Hendrix end up being busts? Sure, but I dont see Tommy even 2 years from now being much better than he already is.