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HLS Top 25 Roulette – #13 Virginia Tech

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One of the most fun entrances in all of College Football:

Most people’s memories of Virginia Tech from last season are centered around 4 games:

  • The opening game against Boise
  • The debacle the next week against James Madison. Most of us probably only caught the game through live look-ins while we were watching other games
  • The ACC championship against FSU
  • The utter destruction that Jim Harbaugh reigned down on them in the Orange Bowl

So, in their 4 most notable games last year, Virginia Tech laid a major egg. However, Tech was extremely dominant in the rest of their games.

  • First Two Games and Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech 26.2 Adj. PPG, Opponents 28.6 (-2.4)
  • Middle 11 Games: Virginia Tech 36.2 Adj. PPG, Opponents 21.8 (+14.4)

Now they are replacing their starting QB and starting RBs on offense….but that’s about it. They are returning a ton of experience at WR and OL and the replacement QB (Logan Thomas) & running back (David Wilson) are super talented though lacking experience.

A small step-back to begin the season could be expected but there is too much talent on the offense (an offense that played like a top 10 offense for most of 2010) for a major regression to happen. If Logan Thomas lives up to his billing, the offense could improve over last year’s.

Now, Tech’s defense last year was somewhat subpar for a Bud Foster Defense, especially the running defense.
From FootballStudyHall:

Boise State’s Doug Martin and D.J. Harper combined for 163 yards on just 16 carries. N.C. State’s Mustafa Greene had 91 yards on just 10 carries. Georgia Tech’s Josh Nesbitt ripped off a 71-yarder while Anthony Allen rushed for 125 yards on 23 carries. Miami’s Lamar Miller had 163 yards on just 15 carries. Stanford’s Stepfan Taylor and Jeremy Stewart each had runs of 56 yards or more.

But there is reason for optimism as Tech is also returning a ton of starters on defense. Another year of experience and with a coach as good as Bud Foster, the Tech defense should improve significantly.

Overall, the biggest reason that Virginia Tech should expect happy things in 2011 is the ridiculously manageable schedule.

    Road Games:

  • Georgia Tech (2011 proj. F/+ ranking: 50th)
  • East Carolina (65th)
  • Virginia (66th)
  • Wake Forest (77th)
  • Duke (79th)
  • Marshall (94th)

Not exactly a murder’s row of road games.
And therefore UNC, Miami, Clemson, and Boston College all travel to Blacksburg during the season.

So, while I think Virginia Tech will more than likely have another 10+ win season with a BCS berth, the lack of experience at QB & RB holds me back from ranking them in the top 10 to start the season.

Much Better Previews:
Football Study Hall (link)

13. Virginia Tech (PootND)
14. Stanford (DMQ)
15. Florida (Biscuit)
16. Notre Dame (PootND)
17. TCU (DMQ)
18. Georgia (Biscuit)
19. Michigan State (PootND)
20. Texas (DMQ)
21. Ole Miss (Biscuit)
22. Mississippi State (PootND)
23. South Carolina (DMQ)
24. Ohio State (Biscuit)
25. Arizona State (PootND)

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  1. SDI

    The Hokies are a strange beast. VT has had 13 straight seasons with 8 or more wins, and 7 seasons with 10 or more wins. That’s incredibly consistent high quality football, and yet they never seem to be able to break through and seriously challenge for a NC. I guess good defense and special teams combined with inconsistent O only get you so far.

    • PootND

      Yeah I agree. but if you read the Football Study Hall preview, the defense was what really held them back the last 2-3 years which was surprising.