Brian Fremeau is a college football writer and stats analyst. His work generally appears on FootballOutsiders.com (the best website for Advanced NFL & CFB stats in my opinion) and ESPN Insider. He developed the Fremeau Efficiency Index which is a:
“College football rating system based on drive-based Game Efficiency data that rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. “
Game Efficiency is explained more in depth on his website and at FootballOutsiders. Fremeau uses the FEI as his own ranking system during the year. He releases weekly rankings with Overall FEI plus FEI split between Offense and Defense amongst other various measures. It provides a nice snap shot for how your teams has performed. Most of the stats have opponent adjustments in them which helps make comparisons easier. (A deeper analysis of FEI and related stats could be a whole other post)
Every off-season, Fremeau releases his Program FEI which is a 5 year look-back at each college football team. Recent performance is weighted more heavily than performance 5 years ago but it is a good look at how your program has fared recently and what you can expect from your team in the upcoming season.
“With Program FEI, five years of GE data is included instead of just one, and the data is weighted in favor of more recent performances — all games are included, but last year is a bit more relevant than games played five years ago. Program FEI correlates strongly with next year success (.752) and is the foundational metric for annual FEI preseason projections.â€
Earlier today, the Program FEI for 2010 was released. Link
To no one’s surprise, Alabama came at #1. To my somewhat surprise, Notre Dame dropped in at #30. I feel like the debacle that was ND football 2007-2009 colors my perception of our 5-year performance.
Anyway, here are ND’s Opponents:
#8 – USC
#18 – Pitt
#21 – Stanford
#28 – BC
#29 – USF
#39 – Navy
#40 – Sparty
#42 – BYU
#48 – Maryland
#50 – Michigan
#55 – Air Force
#67 – Purdue
I don’t know which ranking surprised me the most. Michigan at 50 being our 3rd “worst†opponent, Sparty below Navy or both Sparty & Navy as “low” as they are.
Additionally, this bolsters Biscuit’s piece last night about how our schedule doesn’t suck. I don’t imagine many teams whose worst opponent is ranked #67.
Links:
Fremeau’s Website: http://bcftoys.blogspot.com/
Fremeau on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/bcfremeau
FootballOutsiders: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/
FO Glossary: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary
- Florida State 18, Notre Dame 14: A Quick Recap - December 29, 2011
- Stanford 28, Notre Dame 14: A Quick Recap - November 27, 2011
- Notre Dame 16, Boston College 14: A Quick Recap - November 21, 2011
Have never read his website before, big thanks Poot!!
Since I am new to it, does this mean that, the last 5 years being equal, we are more likely to lose to teams ranked ahead and more likely to beat those ranked behind?
Is there any correlation to a Vegas-like odds and the positional spread between teams in this ranking? For instance, does a 10-team ranking spread equate to a 60-40 likelihood that the higher ranked team will win?
My best guess is yes, this indicates that we are more likely to beat the teams ranked behind us and lose to the teams ranked ahead of us. I don’ think that there is any correlation to a Vegas-like odds and spreads. Also, I’d say the actual FEI is a better for comparisons than the ranking. The gap between BC @ 28 (.118) & USF at 29 (.106) is much greater than the gap between USF at 29 (.106) & ND @ 30 (.105)
I think the 2007-2009 period stands out and over-all colors your preception of the past 5 years… much like anyone else –see the moron from Minnesota a couple of posts below.
That’s just great though. A perfect rope-a-dope set-up. If I can get all cart-y before the horse-y, assuming ND marches through this coming season to and winning the BCS, people next year will still be thinking “naaah, it’s like Chaz’s first season a few years ago” and then blam, hitting them again in 2012 with the Hendrix Experience.
If the team makes the BCS, wins, and people still doubt them, I demand that Kelly have the team rapell from modified Blackhawk helicopters for the opener in 2012. Maybe then people will get the point. We’re sneaky dangerous.
A little punchy for a Friday…