I’m not really sure. It’s a weird feeling, that’s about all I know.
Somehow I think we’re better. But the screwups, per DMQ below, are killing us.
Somehow I think our run defense is better, yet we’re 99th in the country in Rush D (tied with Akron, awesome). When we look at it, it’s the big plays that kill us.
Our offense isn’t better (bc we were so freaking good last year), but they’re pretty good – 24th in Total Offense. However, we’re 73rd in Scoring Offense. The big mistakes are killing us there too.
I feel like we’re ‘better’, but somehow we’re ‘not better enough’ to avoid the big mistakes that really mask any/all improvement. I think we’re better at knowing where to be on defense. I still think we’re better this year at angles and tackling, though there is still a ton of room for improvement. Our running game is improved, no doubt.
So how come we’re “better” and we’re 1-2? It’s those big plays, the key plays, where we’re literally dropping the ball. Eliminate the mistakes in those instances – maybe even just a few of them – and we’re 3-0. And these are all very fixable things. They are not fundamental flaws in this team or program. The players just need to do it better, and the coaches need to teach them how.
This is what makes me weirdly optimistic. We’re 1-2 with 2 losses to average to decent teams, by seconds/inches/bounces. We’re THIS CLOSE to 3-0 WITH those big, terrible mistakes (often by our leaders). When those are eliminated or at least minimized, and I believe they will be because I believe that Coach Kelly has a plan to do so, we will get W’s. And that’s why I’m weirdly and reservedly optimistic in the medium to long run (i have no effing idea what to expect over the next few games though). Because we just need to fix those few things and the games are very different.
Run D.
As mentioned above, we’re 99th on Rush D after 2 games. Same old team right? Same as last year? Not really. We’re playing tough Run Defense for most of the game. If you look at the MSU loss play by play, MSU only averaged 3.9 yards per carry if you exclude the one big run for 56 yards (and a TD). Of their 35 running plays (not including sacks) 19 of them went for less than 4 yards. Another 7 went for 4 to 9 yards. So that leaves the remaining 9 plays that really hurt us on the ground. 9 running plays of 10 to 56 yards that really did the damage, and these were largely missed assignments, or missed tackles in the right spot (e.g. Teo’s whiff on the 56 yarder). Clean up just a few of those, and we have a vastly different Rush D stat line.
Turnovers.
Similar things on offense. We’re in the Top 25 in Total offense, but only 73rd in Scoring. Why? Bonehead mistakes that result in turnovers, and big swings in the game.
Ball on the MSU 11 yard line – fumble by Floyd. That’s at least 3, possibly 7 points.
Crist picked off at MSU 37. Maybe 3 points there. At least some field position.
Crist picked off at ND 44. Maybe 3 points there. At least some field position.
Those turnovers are killers, and ND has been particularly bad this year thus far. As MQ pointed out, we’re on a record-setting pace at this point. ND currently sits at 105th (!) in Turnover Margin at -1.33. That’s good enough to be tied with North Freaking Texas.
So it’s about consistency, and this team isn’t there yet. Making the right reads, getting to the right place, making the play on Defense. Not on 26 of 35 run plays. On 32 of 35. On 35 of 35! This team isn’t there yet, but I believe they will get there.
Ball security on offense. HOLD ONTO THE BALL. That alone results in a point differential that would more than make up for the final point margin in both games. Gotta eliminate those turnovers, or at least get it back to even.
So I’m not sure where things stand right now. I believe this team is headed in the right direction, but that we haven’t progressed enough to not beat ourselves. Credit to UM and MSU for fighting through and winning those games, but ND has beaten itself two weeks in a row. When they figure out how to stop doing that, the results will reflect the progress.
- (Re)Introducing: DANCING LEPRECHAUNS - August 29, 2019
- Ticket Auction: ND vs USC - August 22, 2019
- No Respect! - December 14, 2018
Steve in Iowa
One thing is for sure. Stanford will not beat themselves. I hope that everyone realizes this.
Mark G
Agree. Feeling an odd combination of frustration and muted optimism.
Given the nature of our defense, it is even more important for our offense to sustain drives. For example, we go up 28 to 21 against MSU. Our defense comes in, does a great job and forces a punt. Our offense now has the ball with the opportunity to (i) keep a drive going and give our defense a rest, (ii) change the field position and (iii) go down field for a score (3 or 7) to win the game. What do we do? Nothing. No execution, no urgency, no domination.
Our defense is just not good enough to shut down good teams repeatedly. Without having actually broken down film, it appears to me that our defensive breakdowns are more mental than physical – which gives us some hope that the problem is not the scheme or necessarily personnel (though personnel is a challenge), and that coaching can get those players to fix those mental mistakes. However, until our defense improves (which may be 2 years from now, given the time needed for player development and for recruits to beef up), our offense is going to have to exert its will when it is necessary. We have the ability (given a markedly improved offensive line) to do so. Now the offense needs to will to do so.
SDI
The most important word in this entire post Biscuit was “consistency”. Consistency on D will eliminate the big breakdowns that have been killing them. Consistency on O means not only eliminating big mistakes (turnovers), but bad throws, dropped passes, and delay of game penalties. It also means being able to score points when you absolutely need them–not just when you are losing, but when you need them to break your opponent. In each of the last two games, ND scored first, got a stop, and got the ball back with a chance to go up 14-0 or at least 10-0. A good team offensive team senses their opponent is hurt and finishes the fight with a flurry of punches to the head. Right now ND is like that juvenile lion on the nature shows that catches it’s prey, then loses focus, and allows the victim to jump up and run away.
That has to stop if they want to be better than mediocre.
Brad
I still feel about this team the way I felt about them at the beginning of the season. This is a team that is going to get better and better throughout the year.
They are still showing some old habits from last year. Capitulating late, taking poor angles, poor tackling. But they are improving.
Regardless, you just can’t expect to win games when you are turning the ball over to the other team 3 times a game. Cut out those turnovers, and I think ND wins both of the last two games relatively handily. But we have to stop the dumb plays.
Erik '04
Tony Alford has to be going nuts. He has a reputation for his running backs hanging on to the ball, and here’s his star wide receiver putting it down twice in three games… IN THE RED ZONE. I hope he rides Floyd long and hard this week about what it means (and what it takes) to be an elite player.
tjak
I just feel stongly that if the Irish can score a win against a solid Stanford team, then the dominoes will begin to fall.
This team has had some physical and mental breakdowns, but have also demonstrated elite ability. Case in point on offense-the three staight drives against MSU where we were unstoppable; defense-where we allowed 0 points over 30 odd minutes against Michigan. Robinson had the 87 yarder, but we made them punt many times.
We can complain about execution, but I really do not believe that this team will ever say what Sam Young said after the Syracuse game,”They just wanted it more”
Get past Stanford and I feel good things will begin to happen.
trey
I just dont get the feeling that this team CAN get any better. It’s too much a part of their psyche that anything that can go wrong will, and no matter how well they do, something will blow up in their faces and they’ll lose. Add onto that, the complete lack of a killer instinct and I cant see this team doing much better than 7-5 this year.
However, if we CAN figure this shit out and actually WIN SOME GODDAMN BALLGAMES if we can go undefeated the rest of the way, we’re BCS bound. I guess that’s some hope for optimism.
The Biscuit
See, that’s what I (and I think MQ) completely disagree with. This game wasn’t about luck and everything going against them. Same with UM. It was about effing up all over the place. Even if we just Eff up a little less, we win both those games. It’s not some psyche thing, it’s just doing what you should do, and doing it well.
Ska
Well written Mr. Biscuit. Even the elite players are showing fight and playing well except for that 1 or 2 percent of the time, then they have a major OOOPS. Unfortunately, those OOOPS have been costly. Eliminate the OOOPS and we should have a 3-0 record.
Playing to the level of the opponent has been a trait of ND since Ty. It manifested itself differently under Charlie and is still around under BK, who I think is trying hard to purge it from the player’s psyche.
Like Holtz’s first year, getting competitiveness back into the team mentality took a season. It may also take a BK a year to remove the “Fail” instinct that started back in 2007.
TLNDMA
Yeah this team is getting better, Crist has surely gotten better each game. But, I see some weaknesses here that will not be fixed this year.
I think Kelly has a plan and it’s going to take a couple years to become an elite team.
I think by the end of this year they’ll be pretty good.
This week they play their toughest opponent to date. Hopefully they make a couple of breaks go their way.
SDI
I agree. Improvement is clear in some areas, especially Crist and Riddick. Stanford to me is a lot like Michigan–very good QB surrounded by some solid but not spectacular skill position players, quality offensive linemen, but weak defense. I think the recipe for beating them has to be somewhat similar, get up on them early, pile on the points, force them to throw more than they want to, and hope for a few mistakes.
canuck 75
Great to see some optimism returning. I also think the D is much better but hasn’t gotten a reward for it yet. And I repeat a previous comment-Crist does not look like a kid with 3 starts, he is much better and will be great in time. But we have to beat Stanford.
BigE
Well these last two games have been frustrating. I would have loved to have seen Kelly get in the grill of Floyd and Crist for bonehead plays instead of talking softly to them. I don’t remember my football coaches being so kind. I admit that I’m beginning to worry about Kelly’s play calling. Going for a td with a backup nonscholarship qb instead of a chip shot fg in the Michigan game and then stating that he never gave it a thought. Wow. Then Kelly goes for it on 4th down on his own side of the field with 6 minutes left with the game tied and he thought it was a high percentage opportunity. Wow.
the biscuit
Big E, I literally could not agree more.
FightingSonOfNotreDame
Biscuit, I totally agree. My perspective is the same as Somogyi’s article today in BGI “What Can Be Said?”.
I’m not making excuses here but just feel this is worth noting. Have you seen the sagarin rankings for the year so far?
Check it out:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm
We have the 20th hardest schedule already. This is a harder schedule than all the current top 25 teams on that list. As usual we do it to ourselves with back to back to back (times 6) starting games and no creampuffs.
NO ONE ELSE DOES THIS! NO ONE.
Nevertheless, this doesn’t excuse anything. Frankly, I’m not sure how sagarin’s methodology works 3 games in but clearly Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State all in a row is not the same as New Mexico and Portland State.
FightingSonOfNotreDame
By the way, I did not intend my last comment to be negative.
This is actually positive data.
What’s frustrating is that we never get credit for tough scheduling which makes it not worth doing. Even our own fans (albeit the ignorant ones) sometimes think we have an easy schedule.
the biscuit
FS, I post on that regularly and agree. People whined about this being an EASY year. Wait til 2012. Take the current slate and add OK and Miami. Ugh
VicPaul
After both of these losses the other team jumped into the top 25. We all know the better team lost both those games and that if our stars had played like they were supposed to we would be 3-0 putting us in the top 20 for sure. We are not far off here boys. For now we are 1-2, which sucks ass, but I have tons of faith that BK will get this ship righted and we can all wear our colours to work on Monday without getting mocked. Go Irish!!!
Mick
I don’t know…this season is starting to seem very similar to last season. Remember how we were saying after the USC game that we were 2 plays away from being 6-0? We just needed to eliminate those mistakes and make those plays right?
What happened next? We squeaked out another win against an awful BC team and then went 1-4 the rest of the way against the “soft” part of our schedule to finish 6-6.
You can keep saying that we need to eliminate these mistakes and make plays. But if you are a team does not make plays and is consistently prone to mistakes then (to quote Charlie Weis, who quoted Bill Parcells)…”you are what you are”. Which is right now, a losing football team.
trey
Mick, k think that is exactly the point made by Biz & mq. This team has all the tools necessary(at least physically) to contend for BCS games. The problem is that we get in our own damn way, find ways to beat ourselves, and completley break down mentally that it lets inferior teams shine against us.
Mick
But that’s not the point I’m trying to make at all….would you say that the Charlie Weis coached Irish were “one or two plays away” from a great season last year? would you say that if charlie had just gotten the team to eliminate mistakes then we would have been elite last year?
I guess my problem is that I don’t believe those things at all. I think Weis’s teams had deep seeded, organization wide problems that went far beyond the failure to execute in one or two aspects of a game here and there.
So my point is that we were wrong about Weis, so why are we making the same rationalizations about Kelly only 3 games into the season?
the biscuit
The ‘right’ answer is that we don’t know bc we don’t have enough evidence yet on BK. Maybe its the same situation, maybe not. Personally I doubt it simply because Weis had a whackamole approach and no HC experience to fall back on. BK has a plan that has worked and that he’s evolved over 20 yrs of Head Coaching. Doesn’t guarantee anything, but that’s what makes me think it is/will be different. And the fact that we were ‘just a play away’ in Year 5 with Weis is fairly different than being ‘just a play away’ in games 2 and 3 with BK.
Pat
These next few weeks are big for us. If we can win two of three, I think we’ll be positioned to have a decent year. Let’s start by taking it to the Cardinal this week. I’d like to see some better execution by the offense and for us to actually build a lead. Long way to go; let’s not throw in the towel.
The Biscuit
I’m not nearly as impressed with Stanford as many are. I put them right with MSU. Decent, not great. Definitely a very winnable game, especially at home.
Mark G
Is game plan against Stanford similar to game plan against MSU (which I think was a very good game plan, just not executed well enough)? Play tough on D line, stuff or slow down their run game and force them into 3 and long(ish)? Keep our offense moving so as to keep their’s off the field, and thereby protect our defense?
The Biscuit
I would guess so. But that’s what makes me nervous.
SDI
Me too Biscuit. This is the same group of defensive coaches, players, and scheme that ND throttled last year at the absolute bitter end of a failed regime. Unless they brought in a bunch of 5 star impact defensive players, I don’t expect their D to be much better if any. UCLA, Wake, and Sactown St. just didn’t have the talent to expose that D. It will probably be a shootout because I do think Luck and his offensive line are very good.
canuck75
Just read Kelly’s transcript. He really says the right things and conveys confidence. I’m sure the boys are buying in. Also, I love how he is not afraid to call someone out a bit-this week its Cierre Wood. I didn’t realize that we held State to minus rushing yds in the 4th-that really is pretty impressive, particularly in light of recent years. Seems to me we were in better shape after all. Now, if Slaughter can make one big play…
TLNDMA
I didn’t realize Slaughter was our next All-Ameican. Can the kid get healthy befoe we annoint him? Are we pinning all our hopes on him. Hope he plays well or, it’ll be his head.
One of my biggest hopes is that Kelly’s staff can find actual football players, not just a few stars. I don’t care how many recruiting stars they get.
BigE
Go Irish beat the Cardinal. If I’m going to be hungover at Mass on Sunday and repent for my use of obscenities, I’d at least like to have a smile on my face.