I had set out to title this post, “Lou Holtz is Wrong.” I got home after a very busy Saturday (even had time to hit Bed Bath & Beyond!) and discovered the internets asploded all over my desk over this prediction:
Now, for those of you who scored poorly on the comprehension bits of various standardized tests, let me point out: Lou isn’t arguing that ND IS, currently, one of the 2 best teams in the country. Lou isn’t saying that ND will be 1 of the 2 best college football playing teams in the country through the year. And Lou isn’t saying that if ND played anybody this year, they could and would beat anybody. What Lou’s actually said is that, given the 2009 ND football schedule, there is very little reason to expect fewer than 11 or 12 wins for the Irish. That is, of course, highly debatable, but I digress.
As I mentioned before, I wanted to title this post, “Lou Holtz is Wrong.” And in the early stages of my prep-work for this post, I felt confident I could do so. I felt confident because of one simple fact. Currently, Notre Dame is ranked #23 in both the preseason AP and Coaches Polls. And, important for the purposes of this post due to referencability*: ND is ranked 19th in the preliminary Stassen Preseason Consensus Rankings – a consensus built from a large variety of preseason polls and publications. And I was quite confident that no program had ever climbed the BCS ladders far enough to qualify for the BCS Championship Game after such a low preseason ranking. For all National Championship intents and purposes, Notre Dame’s season essentially ended after these preseason prognostications were made. Or so I thought.
Below is a listing of every team that has played in the 10 BCS Championship Games to date. Alongside each program’s name is their preseason consensus ranking according to Stassen.
First, the bad news: Of all the teams that have played in a BCS Championship Game, on average, they only managed to move about 4 spots from their preseason consensus rankings to get into either the #1 or #2 slots. Even if we only account for teams that actually had to improve from their preseason consensus ranking, those teams only had to move, on average, about 7 spots. If ND’s preliminary consensus ranking of 19 holds (and we don’t see it moving this close to the season – most everyone’s predictions and polls are out), ND will need to manage an improvement of 17 places in the rankings.
But here’s the glimmer of hope and the reason I can’t title this post “Lou Holtz is Wrong,” (a title sure to generate lots of hits and links): Because one team has actually already done it. In fact, they did more than what ND would need to do this year. Oklahoma, in 2000, moved from a preseason consensus ranking of 21 all the way to the BCS Championship Game and a championship title. Still, the 2nd closest leap was an improvement of 12 positions by LSU in 2003 – 7 fewer slots than Oklahoma in 2000. In order for ND to allow Lou to save face, they’ll need to make the 2nd largest leap up the rankings in BCS history.
And yeah, going back to Lou’s explanation, we understand that a big part of his argument is predicated on the notion that IF ND goes undefeated, there’s no way they’ll be kept out of the national championship game. Perhaps. Perhaps as many as 4 BCS conference teams manage an undefeated season this year. What then? But further, there’s a very real chance that the wisdom of the college football predicting crowds foretells a non-undefeated season for ND. Perhaps a consensus of 19 means the world expects ND to lose at least 1 and maybe even more. There’s probably a very good reason only one team has done anything like what ND would need to do this year.
Actually, one reason Oklahoma managed to make such a leap was because they went undefeated (duh) against very strong competition. According to Sagarin, their strength of schedule was 14th toughest in the country that year. Meanwhile, before we even get started, ND AD Jack Swarbrick is left propping up the 2009 Irish schedule. The voices Mr. Swarbrick will be battling will get louder with every Irish win this season – a season of opponents and venues his predecessor essentially “crafted for a championship run.” Pretty funny considering the average SOS of teams in any BCS championship game has been around 20. No. Nobody could have guessed back when this schedule was first being created that the entire state of Washington would become incapable of playing football, or that BC would become a sea of tumult, or that Michigan would suck even more than it usually does. But we highly doubt that during its crafting, Dr. White was seeking to shape this schedule into top-20 material. Note: The absolute worst SOS of any team that needed to move in the BCS era was Ohio State’s in 2007 at 53. And note to Mr. Swarbrick: I think I prefer SoCal’s “crafting” of a championship schedule. In the years they’ve appeared in the BCS Championship Game, their SOS has been 7th and 8th. And the year they didn’t play in the game but split the polls, their SOS was 19th.
We love Lou, of course. And we fully understand that much of his own prognosticating is, like his counterpart May, based on entertainment value. And whether or not we agree with him is another matter, separate from the numbers above, and for another post in about a week.
*
- Friday Roundup: That Was Fast Edition - December 14, 2018
- Ian Book Is Smokey and the Bandit - December 12, 2018
- Don’t Call It A Comeback - December 10, 2018
san diego irish
I think that Lou’s prediction is not all that far fetched and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. But he is always very optimistic about ND’s chances and so naturally everyone starts yelling homer before he even explains himself. I know that college football is a lot more complex than just star ratings, experience, and strength of schedule. But it’s a lot more reasonable to make predictions based on those factors than past history. I think a lot of folks are discounting ND because of the Syracuse game last year. But no one (except Biscuit) seems to acknowledge that ND was a team full of sophomores and juniors last year. And no one that ranks ND at 23 or lower can point to any real weaknesses in the team except rushing stats (a legit criticism) and some notion that Charlie can’t motivate his team/win big games. That’s no exactly a convincing case for ND losing 4 games next year–which is what it would take for them to end up 23 in the polls.
ND has more all around talent on both sides of the ball than they’ve had in years, a very favorable schedule, and an improved coaching staff. I personally think Charlie was right when he said in ’07 that people should get their thrills kicking ND while they’re down because it won’t last long. We’ll soon find out.
tricerapops
i’m with SDI above. can we just get this facking season started already!?
tednict
Lou is ALWAYS too high in his expectations of what the Irish will do. Eleven or 12 wins…possible but difficult. I get really tired of so many people ripping the Irish schedule for ’09. Did ND create or time the problems and rebuilding schemes of UM, MSU, BC, and Pitt? NO! Those contracts were signed before anyone expected those things to happen. Taking USC into account and this schedule could have easily have placed ND in the top 5 SOS teams. Additionally, I believe Nevada and Stanford will be more difficult than many give them credit for being. The schedule issue is BS! With all that said, I hope Lou is correct and the Irish sport 11 or 12 W’s at the end of November. If they are 12-0, they will play for the NC.
Mackay Rippey
Lou makes a very good point. #2 team? No.
Best team on the field in all of their scheduled games? Almost all of the time.
brendan
Totally agree mq.
In the blogosphere a lot seems to be made about the “impossibility” of closing the gap with USC, but it should be remembered that in the four meetings prior to 1988 Miami had beaten ND by a combined 133-20 including the last two: 58-7 and 24-0. Not saying we will or even that they have a good chance, but it is possible… (maybe)
trey
domer, I think you got close to the issue, but only really touched on it. The thing about the controversy and why this whole thing has blown up is because LOU said it and used the words “National Championship” and Notre Dame together. He never said ND WOULD play in it, SHOULD play in it, or is better than the teams that WILL play in it. His argument is completely logical in that ND has the ABILITY to play in it. But hell, what team in the top-25, really, doesn’t? You dont get that ranking without having a pretty solid squad, and the Irish are no different.
However, one item I think you’re missing is the tendency of pollsters to overrate ND once we start winning strings of games. If we DO go undefeated, don’t you think it’s entirely possible that we’ll make an enormous jump just on the basis that “We are ND?” I sure do.
I’ve said this to my friends who have been making fun of me for this comment, but I really think eSpn put Lou(and does every year) up to this to make a headline. They succeeded and they got people’s butts in chairs and their eyes on the Network.