Despite the fact that Notre Dame first played Michigan (sucks!) in a game of football in 1887, and despite the fact that both fan bases hate each other with the white-hot heat of 1,000,000 suns – and very hot suns at that – the Irish and the Skunkbears have only played 35 football games. And in that time, Notre Dame has recorded 14 wins, 20 losses, and 1 tie. Now, I’ve never been much for believing that historical season statistics tell much of future propositions when it comes to college football. There’s too much turnover year-to-year for the variables to be manageable enough to say “because X in nineteen-bippity-boo to two-thousand-yippity-yap, Y.” However, the history of Notre Dame/Michigan (sucks!) does present some interesting data.
As mentioned, 35 games have been played between the Irish and the Skunkbears. 6 of those games, all Skunkbear wins, occurred on or before 1900. Since then, the series has been all tied up 14-14-1.
The all-time scoring average in the series has been ND – 15.5 to UM(s!) – 20.5.
In the last 20 games played, the average score is ND – 20, UM(s!) – 23.
In the last 10 games, ND – 18.7, UM(s!) – 26.9.
Average score, ND wins in the last 10 years: 26.5 to 18.5
Average score, ND losses in the last 10 years: 10.75 to 37.25
Average score, ND home games, last 10 years: 27.5 to 27.5
Again, I don’t really like year-to-year stats when it comes to predicting current-season outcomes. You lose 1/4th of your roster every year unless your predecessor was Ty Willingham. Coaches tinker with systems almost annually. And coaches get hired and fired constantly. But it’s interesting to note, just for “academic” purposes, that in the last decade or so, a Michigan (sucks!) win in this series has meant the Skunkbears winning handily, by about 27 points. (No doubt the 38-0 blowouts in recent years help there.) When ND wins, it’s by a far lower margin, with an average of about 8 points. Given that neither team in the 2008 season has “lit up” the scoreboard, that may bode well for the Irish. Most pundits are calling for an “ugly” and “defensive” game. EDIT: Here’s where I meant to point out that, when ND wins, the winning score tends to be significantly lower. Now, perhaps, the preceding statements have some logical basis. Maybe.
So, going against just about everything I hold dear when it comes to statistical analysis of college football, my prediction: ND – 28, UM(s!) – 14. A veritable blow-out for ND in the history of the ND/UM(s!) series. ND’s defense is going to force the still fawn-like UM(s!) offense to make plenty of mistakes, and that will open up enough opportunities for the Irish to show a great deal of improvement in “situational football,” resulting in a 2-score game that’s going to feel uncomfortable for the entire 60 minutes of play.
*All bets are off if the weather is stormy.
- HLS Tweets for the Week of 2009-11-15 - November 15, 2009
- HLS Tweets for the Week of 2009-11-08 - November 8, 2009
- HLS Tweets for the Week of 2009-11-01 - November 1, 2009
domer,
Interesting prediction, the last few days I’ve started to feel like it could easily be a one-sided game, not sure for which team though. given my recent history of trying to predict the score in this game, that probably means a close game (translation, I know nothing). I’m still not sure where this confidence in the ND defense comes from, but we shall soon see I guess.
DTK,
The biggest bit of confidence comes from the fact that one thing our team showed last week that doesn’t fall under the “yeah, but it’s SDSU” umbrella, no matter what, is excellent open-field tackling. I don’t think Michigan (sucks!) can run their O with enough efficiency to keep running 12 play drives down the field. I fully expect 2 scores as a result of huge, 60 yard plays as the result of the one guy who can’t tackle and doesn’t like to hit missing a tackle. I wont name him. It’ll be clear to you by Saturday evening.
I agree MQ – LOVE the improvement in tackling. But my W prediction comes from the fact that I think both O’s will struggle, but UM (sucks!) will turn the ball over at least twice, resulting in points for the Irish. Which will lead to a W.
Yeah, but the Skunks haven’t fumbled a ball yet this year. And the passing attack of the spread is sort of tricky to pick off because it’s one read, generally. I’m not expecting much in the turnover dept.
domer,
Did you not see the Utah game? two fumbles, 3 INT’s (one got called back)
Wow. I must be spacing out on lack of sleep. I could swear I read yesterday that UM hadn’t turned a ball over.
Never mind. Erase, erase, erase.
And put me down for liking my prediction even more.
(Minus thunderstorms, of course.)
even if they hadn’t, i’d still make that call. if we stack the box (which we will), blitz (which we will) and force them to throw (they will have to), the QBs will be confused. they’re confused without all that happening! and confusion = mistakes = turnovers = i’m right and we win.
Plus, Michigan(sucks!) hasnt scored 20 points against an opponent yet(I dont count the bogus PI call against Utah that SHOULD have resulted in a 14 pt swing). I think the Irish showed something as far as growing up in that 4th quarter and a lot will be clicking this weekend. I call 28-10 Irish.
The weather could really make a big deal. Our strengths are passing and pass defense, and Michigan’s are running and run defense. Rain forces teams to run more. I think I’m going to head down to the Grotto now…
Matt, that’s a good point and I agree. Weather is an equalizer here that hurts us more than UM (sucks!)