As I mentioned on today’s podcast, the picks pod won’t be happening until we get to the New Year’s Six/Playoffs. However, I did promise that I would get picks out for the rest of the games.
Granted, the initial plan was to use Tallysight’s slicker interface, but they don’t have any games up. With that in mind, let’s just do the good ‘ol fashioned written word thing so you can get your degenerate on if you so wish.
Monday, December 21
Myrtle Beach Bowl, 2:30 PM ET, ESPN
App State (-21) vs. North Texas (Total: 67.5)
Winner: App State
Spread: App State -21
Total: Under 67.5
I typically hate situations in which I’m heavy on the public side, and with 57% of the tickets and 94% of the money, I’m definitely there.
Here’s the thing though: North Texas is real bad, especially their defense. I can easily see App State putting the hurt on against a team that barely beat UTEP and only beat Rice by 10.
The line is fair, which is why it’s only moved two points from -19 (and quite a few books have tossed in the hook to cover their ass). While it’s rare, sometimes the book botches it. Here’s hoping this is one of those times.
Tuesday, December 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Tulane (-3) vs Nevada (Total 55.5)
Spread: Tulane -3
Total: Over 55.5
I feel more confident in the over than anything here. Carson Strong can sling it for Nevada and Tulane is a crazy-fun team that will put up points too.
I’ll give Tulane the edge here for facing, and beating superior competition throughout the season, including giving Army one of their two losses on the season.
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl, 6:00 PM ET, ESPN
UCF vs #16 BYU (-7) (Total: 73.5)
Spread: UCF +7
Total: Over 73.5
All. The. Points.
While you should obviously always take the points in a shootout, can we talk about the absolute disrespect for UCF here? This isn’t a bad team and the line really feels like “um, more points for the team with a number next to their name, please.”
Sprinkle that moneyline and enjoy the offensive fireworks.
Wednesday, December 23
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, 2:00 PM ET, ESPN
LA Tech vs Georgia Southern (-5.5) (Total 48.5)
Winner: Georgia Southern
Spread: LA Tech +5.5
Total: Under 48.5
Gonna channel Eddie’s principle play here: LA. Tech. Comin’.
LA Tech as an underdog is lethal on the spread for whatever reason. I’m not messing with the clear demonstrated success of that move, especially when this is basically a home game, meaning less pandemic travel stress.
This being over a field goal helps a ton. GA Southern is solid, should be able to take the air out of the ball to keep the score down, but I don’t see this game being a simple touchdown victory.
Montgomery Bowl, 6:00 PM ET, ESPN
Memphis (-8) vs FAU (Total: 50.5)
Spread: Memphis -8
Total: Over 50.5
First off: gross. Second off: FAU somehow has 99% of the money on it.
Second time I’ve seen something that crazy and I went the other side with success the last time I saw that.
Thursday, December 24
New Mexico Bowl, 2:30 PM ET, ESPN
Hawai’i vs Houston (-13) (Total: 59.5)
Spread: Hawai’i +13
Total: Under 59.5
Mahlo and welcome to the
Hawai’i New Mexico Bowl which of course emanates live from New Mexico Frisco, Texas.
This is a crime on so many levels, but the bigger crime would be trusting whatever Holgo is doing at Houston with 13 points against anyone, especially when you recall they’ve had five games cancelled this season.
Friday, December 25
Camellia Bowl, 1:30 PM ET, ESPN
Marshall vs Buffalo (-3) (Total: 53.5)
Spread: Buffalo -3
Total: Under 53.5
Merry Christmas, go travel to fuckin’ Montgomery, Alabama during a pandemic to play football on Christmas day.
Feel best about the under because I have zero faith either team really gives that much of a shit about this once it really sets in what they’re doing. Go through motions, give Jarrett Patterson the ball a bunch, go home.
- Epilogue - January 3, 2022
- HLS Podcast Finale - January 2, 2022
- The Final Fiesta: Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State NCAA ’14 Sim - December 31, 2021