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Home > Notre Dame Football > Opponents > Breaking Down Advanced Statistics Ahead of ND-USC
Notre Dame Will Win On Saturday

Here at Her Loyal Sons, we strive for equal parts optimism and free discourse.

Breaking Down Advanced Statistics Ahead of ND-USC

October 7, 2019 by IrishElvis

The Irish open as an 11-point favorite against the USC Trojans. Using overall and unit rankings from SP+, I examine what to expect on primetime Saturday night.

You can jump over to ESPN for a quick primer on SP+ but it’s a method to quantify team and unit efficiency. I decided to compare the relative strengths of each unit as they’ll appear on the field, so looking at Southern Cal’s offensive ranking compared to the Notre Dame defensive ranking (and so on).

The first quick note: there are four teams ranked in the top-30 for offense, defense, and special teams in 2019–they are LSU, Georgia, Auburn….and Notre Dame. Without further ado:

A 2019 comparison of Notre Dame & USC SP+ unit rankings.

ND Offense vs. SC Defense

First, some good news: when Notre Dame’s 18th-ranked offense is on the field, they should have a substantial advantage over the 51st-best Trojan defense. The Irish run blocking scheme has proven frustrating against top-tier defenses, but there are sufficient weapons on the ground and through the air to leverage this advantage

SC Offense vs. ND Defense

Despite Clay Helton’s ever-warm coaching seat, SC manages to bring in top-shelf offensive production (19th-best SP+) at the skill positions. Their experience and depth should get tested in this game, and the Irish will need to utilize their various weapons on their 27th-ranked defense to create backfield pressure and neutralize the long-ball threat.

Special Teams

Irish fans perpetually hope the game doesn’t rest on special teams (ND: 26th, SC: 35th), although the home team enjoys a slight edge here as well. Long returns or a botched punt attempt could swing momentum in this contest.

Overall

Notre Dame is currently ranked 13th in SP+, while USC sits at 29. The Irish haven’t looked dominant against good competition, but have consistently covered the point spread despite failing to sneak out of Athens with a victory. Southern Cal, on the other hand, has fallen victim to inexperience and uneven play against decent-to-good teams, and both Trojan losses (Washington and BYU) are statistically inferior to the 2019 Irish. Let’s hope Irish eyes are smiling come Saturday night.

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IrishElvis
Staff Waiter, #HLSrecap Inventor

Powered by SC schadenfreude, husband to Mrs. IrishElvis (not pictured), rabble rouser. TCB.

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Filed Under: Notre Dame Football, Opponents Tagged With: #sportsmath

About IrishElvis

Staff Waiter, #HLSrecap Inventor

Powered by SC schadenfreude, husband to Mrs. IrishElvis (not pictured), rabble rouser. TCB.

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