As I was watching Utah/Oregon to close out my college football Saturday, I kept looking at my playoff ranking breakdown spreadsheet and began to wonder just how far the Irish would fall after their loss to Arizona State. Once Oregon pulled away from Utah, I decided to go ahead and go for it.
So, before the Elvii and CFB Playoff committee chime in, I wanted to get these projections on the record and see if my understanding of the committee’s logic is really as good as I think it is. Again, please note, I am projecting what the committee will do, this doesn’t necessarily reflect what my personal rankings would be.
[table “” not found /]I feel pretty good about the top ten and even Notre Dame’s ranking. Beyond that, I really think things could get quite a bit messy as I was moving teams around quite a bit, especially once I put Texas A&M into the top 25.
Here was the logic I used:
- If a team won, they do not fall in the rankings.
- If a team lost, they needed to fall in the rankings.
- Teams that had a bye did not fall.
West Virginia is a noticeable exception; however, Texas A&M needed to get in and, since WVU was on a bye and their last game was a loss, they got the boot.I apparently can’t read box scores late at night because West Virginia DID lose (as noted in the comments, many thanks) so their removal is quite justified. Thankfully this doesn’t affect the rest of my logic.- Texas A&M got in because they have three losses, but all to the top 15 teams. With a win over Auburn, I would be shocked if the committee doesn’t put them in the top 25.
- Top 25 wins remained the big measuring stick for how to rank teams outside of the number of losses a team had.
- TCU leapfrogs Alabama because they now have the same amount of quality wins (WVU is now just a regular win). LSU and OU are a wash in quality, but Kansas State is a much better win than Texas A&M.
- I kept Baylor below TCU because that’s how the committee had it last week and I don’t see that changing.
- Michigan State remains above Notre Dame for the same reason the committee has done so each poll: the top 25 win over Nebraska
- I did consider Stanford for the #25 slot; however, A&M’s resume was more impressive on the standards the committee has set.
So there you have it. We’ll see how accurate this all is tomorrow night.
- Epilogue - January 3, 2022
- HLS Podcast Finale - January 2, 2022
- The Final Fiesta: Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State NCAA ’14 Sim - December 31, 2021
JohnF
West Virginia DID lose, 33-16, to Texas.
Ryan Ritter
Well, I guess I can’t read box scores late at night. I’ll make a note above. Thanks (and thankfully, it doesn’t affect the rankings).
OderName
I would be shocked if we only fall to 15. You’ve done the analysis and I haven’t, but I just see this committee looking at their criteria (number of losses and quality wins) where we are not doing well at all, versus the areas where we have some strength (quality of loss and overall SOS) that they don’t seem to consider at all. Maybe it’s still the sour grapes and pit in my stomach, but I fear that we drop to around 20. The only real thing that matters is whether we even have a shot at a Big 6 bowl anymore.
jdthom1
Missouri and Minnesota are the only other 7-2 teams without a top 25 win and they aren’t ranked and I really don’t expect them to be. Puts things in perspective…
jdthom1
I’ll add to that, there are 34 bowl eligible teams form power 5 conference, including ND. 31 of those have at least one win over another bowl eligible power 5 team. Notre Dame, Missouri and Iowa do not. I am just saying this to adjust expectations. This team was 6-0 and went to Tallahassee #5 with a shot to move up with a close loss. We talk a lot about the preseason bias working for the SEC, which I agree with, but it’s helping us too.
Pete
Not a bad ranking. I would move Georgia higher though to 14 or 15 moving everyone else lower.
Big Dan
Don’t like Michigan State, Ole Miss and UCLA (don’t care about their game against ASU) being above ND.
sakgsalf
When ND beats Alabama I’ll put Ole Miss lower. When ND beats Arizona State I’ll put UCLA lower. When ND beats anyone ranked in the Top 25 of any poll I’ll put Michigan State lower. Stop crying. We aren’t a team worthy of even cracking the Top 25. Everyone needs to accept the facts on the table and get over it.