Brian Fremeau and the boys at footballoutsiders were kind enough to send over an advance copy of their Football Outsiders College Football Almanac for the 2012 season (FOCFA 2012). Having spent the better part of a day with it, I can say that it’s the comprehensive team guide to the upcoming season with enough math to make the folks at JPL look up from their Curiosity cams and marvel at all the FEI and S&P+ data. If you’re into preseason prognostication, this is the resource you need. If you’re a sensitive Arts and Letters-type, though, this tome may cause serious injury, so you better warm up before you start reading.
For those of you not familiar with the product, FOCFA 2012 gives win projections and statistical profiles for all 124 FBS teams. To give you an idea of how technical they get, FOCFA uses the F/+ team efficiency rating system, a combination of Brian Fremeau’s Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a drive-based index, and Bill Connolley’s play-by-play S&P+ rating system. But it’s not just that they analyze thousands and thousands of plays and drives (almost 20,000 to be almost exact). They actually analyze the plays themselves, so that touchdowns in garbage time count less and successful plays against tough competition count for more. The season win predictions go so far as to take into account recruiting, returning starters and talent lost.
Along with Tom Gower and Matt Hinton, Connelley and Fremeau provide good narrative analysis of the AQ conferences and individual teams. Because I want to encourage you to purchase this comprehensive resource, I am not going to give much away, except that they rank Notre Dame over Michigan (as well they should).
I can only muster two criticisms about FOCFA 2012. One, they should really update the Penn State analysis. I am curious to see what the sanctions and defections have done to the numbers. While this may require a massive reboot of the entire Big Ten chapter, I think it might be worth their time to “run the numbers” again, so to speak, if only for the PDF version. My second criticism is the short-shrift given to the non-AQ schools. Simply put, the authors of FOCFA 2012 give so much analysis and take such a comprehensive approach, that it seems arbitrary to leave schools out, regardless of the actual reasons for doing so.
So, to sum it up, if you’re a stats junkie who grooves on objectifying the subjective, this is the resource for you. But don’t take my word for it. Take Bill Simmons’. Regardless, at just $5.00 for the PDF version of the College Almanac, you really can’t go wrong.
And, yes, they offer the same kind of almanac for the NFL and you can get both in one slick volume, The Football Outsiders Almanac 2012, for just $12.50 in PDF. The print version will set you back $22.95. Go on. You know you want to.
As always, let us know what you think in the comments below or let me know directly on my Twitter machine, @HLS_BayouIrish
Hating Hurricanes Since 1990.
Bayou Irish is a Jersey boy and Double Domer who fell under New Orleans' spell in 1995. He's been through Katrina and fourteen years in the Coast Guard, so we cut him some slack, mostly in the form of HLS-subsidized sazeracs. But, when he's not face down on the bar and communing with the ghosts of Faulkner and Capote at the Carousel Bar in the Hotel Monteleone, he's our man in SEC-land, doing his best to convince everyone around him that Graduation Success Rate is a better indicator of success than the number of MNC's won in the last five years.
- Finding Flaws in a Diamond: Clemson’s Rushing Offense - December 17, 2018
- Why Nobody Will Cotton to Notre Dame - December 3, 2018
- Irish Finish Regular Season Perfect 12-0 - November 26, 2018
