As I flipped through Phil Steele’s magazine to research my preview post, one ranking in particular stuck out: Davonte Neal was ranked as the #8 freshman WR in the nation–two spots ahead of Deontay Greenberry at #10. This was rather shocking ranking to me. I expected Greenberry, considered the no-doubt centerpiece of the Irish recruiting class of 2012, to end up ranked higher than Neal.
Now, while recruiting rankings are all over the map, Steele’s rankings (or PS# as he calls them) interest me because he takes a very mathematical approach to the situation:
I compile my PS#’s based on the many different recruiting services across the country. I not only use all of the biggest but use regional reports as well…When we receive a recruiting magazine, we translate each player’s ranking into a point system from 1-100. [My employees,] Brandon, Christy and Logan then log each and every player into the computer and give them a point total from each source…The more they are mentioned and the higher they are rated in each publication, the more total points they accrue. After months of entering all of this information, I sort the list by each position and by total points.
While Steele doesn’t go into the specifics of his point system (after all, he still wants you to buy his magazine), in the subjective realm of recruiting rankings, his approach is as non-biased as it gets . By using so many recruiting services, Steele’s method allows him to average out some of the biases and oddities that tend to arise in rankings. For instance, some services will raise/lower a recruits ranking based on the schools that offer–the more prestigious the list, the higher the ranking rises.
In Neal’s case, these variations were even more pronounced:
| Service | National Rank | Position Rank | Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 8 | 1 (ATH) | 5 |
| Rivals | 107 | 17 (WR) | 4 |
| 24/7 | 84 | 7 (ATH) | 4 |
| Scout | n/a | 5 (CB) | 4 |
The services can’t even really settle on what Neal’s position is, something that definitely affected his position rankings and possibly even his national ranking for those that provided it.
In comparison, take a look at how Greenberry stacked up:
| Service | National Rank | Position Rank | Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 106 | 17 (WR) | 4 |
| Rivals | 49 | 7 (WR) | 4 |
| 24/7 | 17 | 3 (WR) | 5 |
| Scout | n/a | 7 (WR) | 5 |
While the rankings are again rather varied (especially on ESPN’s part), there is no doubt that Greenberry was definitely considered one of the elite WRs in the nation. The only service that had both Neal and Greenberry as WRs, Rivals, didn’t even put Neal in the same league as Greenberry. Save for ESPN, the national rankings of Neal and Greenberry aren’t in the same ballpark as well.
This makes Steele’s final ranking all the more fascinating. Did Arizona regional services boost Neal’s rankings far higher than California services did for Greenberry? Are the major services severely underestimating Neal? Did questioning Neal’s primary position further muddy the waters for some?
Whatever the case, it is clear that Neal got enough print and high enough rankings from many recruiting services to boost him over Greenberry in Steele’s formulas. Of course, rankings don’t always equate to on field performance guarantees, something Steele himself readily admits in his magazine.
After all, Dayne Crist was a PS#5 QB.
Texan by birth, Irish by choice.
First-generation Domer and a former student manager, HLS podcast host, HLS Sim creator, Extra Life streamer, and technical problem haver. You can find more non-Notre Dame related writing on his Patreon.
- Epilogue - January 3, 2022
- HLS Podcast Finale - January 2, 2022
- The Final Fiesta: Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State NCAA ’14 Sim - December 31, 2021
The Rivals national rank of Neal doesnt surprise me..When Neal signed with ND Mike farrell said Neal would either be Boom or Bust at ND.. Really interesting on PS recruiting rankings and i liked how he did and this coming from a guy who doesnt like Phil Steel or his magazine.. great article Tex
Who is this Dayne Crist you speak of?
In 2012 we live in a world where men making $2-3 million dollars/year (NFL GMs) and their hundreds of 6 figure NFL scouts working for billion dollar enterprises (NFL teams) cannot get the 1st round of the NFL Draft right (only 32 players)
Deion Walker was a consensus Top 10-15 WR in his class, which was likely ranked by the exact same people compiling the lists above. His measurables, grades, and projections are very similar to those afforded Greenberry by (again) these same exact dudes.
I’m never overly negative and certainly not overly positive about ND recruits, but it bears notice that we’re no closer to a formula today as 25 years ago to projecting players jumping a level. Based on grainey highlight reels shot from 100 yards away I’d take Neal over Greenberry every single day and I hope I’m right.
Tex – Les Miles would appreciate it if you used this data to get into some below the belt bashing of The Recruit Who Got Away.
Steele has Gunner at PS#1. Apparently, checking for the proper breed of cat, swagger, and examining the chest of recruits aren’t part of his formulas.
I agree with Steve on this one. Rankings mean relatively nothing but possibly getting a recruit to their desired school. It’s all about the work effort when you move to the next level. That’s in the classroom and on the field period. I personally would recruit athletes over position players all the time.
The rankings look almost identical to me, and I would say they are neck and neck as far as raw talent goes. Both are top ten in each positional category, except for one. Both players have a service in which they are considered next level elite (I would consider top 25 next level elite).
The biggest question is who’s talent is most needed at Notre Dame.
The answer to this question is simple… Its Devonte Neal.
Most Notre Dame fans believe we need to find a replacement for Michael Floyd… I believe we need to find our version of Percy Harvin. If you look at the way the offense is evolving, this hybrid slot position is the most important position of the offense. Think about it for a second, name one of Oregon’s outside receivers? Name one of Florida’s outside receivers under Urban Meyer?, who played on the outside during that run Missouri had a couple of years ago? Not Jeremy Maclin, he played in the slot. None of the offenses mentioned above look they same, they are very different, except for one thing… they all rely heavily on a versatile player who mainly plays in the slot. And guess what… Now that Notre Dame runs a spread offense, so do they.
Golden Tate = Davonte Neal
It’s not based on grainy highlights. These kids go to camps ! Everyone gets thorough looks at these kids, how they compete, how they compare with each other. It’s not perfect, but much better than 25-30 years ago. And it continues to get even better.