Growing up in Pittsburgh, there was only one football team to care about: The Pittsburgh Steelers. True, Pitt had a Football program, but nobody cared. Penn State had more fans, and Pitt had a quick burst of success before I was born, but generally, meh.
And that’s Pitt this year: Meh.
They have a meh team with a meh Coach and meh production. Yet, somehow, that Coach beat ND last year. And somehow, that team has a better record than ND. Time to right the ship here and ensure that everything in the Universe lines up just a BIT more closely.
Pitt’s Offense
Meh.
Pitt currently ranks 61st in Total Offense, producing 404 yards of offense per game at a clip of 5.3 yards per play (puts them at 80th nationally). This is no powerhouse O, and they’ve turned the ball over at a decent rate as well. Course, nothing compared to ND’s ranking of FIRST IN MOST TURNOVERS, YEEEEEEEEAH!!!! but still not great. The Pitt O goes as the running game goes, driven by a guy that, based on the interviews this week, is in line for the Heisman. But it turns out that Graham is a decent RB in a mediocre run offense. Pitt is ranked 59th in Rushing Yards per Game at 164, with only mediocre production per attempt at 4 yards per carry.
Pitt’s passing O is actually about the same level of meh, with 240 yards per game, good for 52nd in the country.
Pitt’s Defense
Meh to bad.
This is where Pitt goes from meh to bad. Total Defense is ranked 96th, giving up an oh-so-generous 416 yards per game. Unlike the very balanced mediocrity of the offense, however, Pitt is tough against the Run and terrible against the Pass. The Genac-ers are giving up only 80 yards per game on the ground, good for a Top 25 ranking. They are, however, seriously challenged in defending the pass. There was a lot of press dedicated to Pitt’s ‘multiple looks’ and ‘clinic in coverages’ this week, but apparently none of that works as Pitt has yielded 336 yards per game in the air, good for 119th in the nation. The only team worse? UNLV.
Pitt’s Schedule Thus Far
So even if all these stats don’t convince you of Pitt’s solid standing as mediocre to bad, keep in mind that Pitt has played a really, really weak schedule. Sagarin rates Pitt’s schedule to date as the 105th most difficult, as the Panthers have played Buffalo, Maine and at Iowa.
That’s right, Pitt is 119th against the Pass, and they played BUFFALO, MAINE and Iowa. ND should freaking light this team up through the air.
Pitt isn’t very good, folks. ND should freaking mop the floor with them. Will they? That’s a different story. But should, yes. Should.
Don't take me, yourself, or life so seriously. This is supposed to be fun.
Biscuit co-founded HerLoyalSons in partnership with his ND roommate (Dillon Hall baby!), MQ, in 2006 and has been ranting about ND Football and everything Notre Dame since. He strongly believes in the mission of ND and its football program. Biscuit expects logic and data in arguments and will absolutely crush you if you come to a debate missing one or the other. He despises everything Michigan, and his favorite pastime is mocking Purdue.
- (Re)Introducing: DANCING LEPRECHAUNS - August 29, 2019
- Ticket Auction: ND vs USC - August 22, 2019
- No Respect! - December 14, 2018
Brian Fremeau’s FEI predicts an Irish loss this week:
62.2% PWE :: PITTSBURGH 25, Notre Dame 21
I’m inclined to agree with you, Matt, but one dismisses Football Outsiders at his peril.
1. I’m not Matt
2. FEI has its flaws, and it’s not accounting for ND’s wild production while shooting self in foot – also not accounting for wild difference in quality of opponent
Gah, sorry Biscuit. Matt spams my twitter feed all day, so I assumed it was one of his posts.
I’m no expect on the mode, but it appears to be accounting for SoS. ND’s SoS is ranked 25th to Pitt’s 38th; which certainly doesn’t seem accurate. Even if the 3rd team ‘Bama, opening against Buffalo and Maine get you close to ND’s SoS.
The S&P loves us– we’re 5th nationally. Since it measures production, we get credit for moving the ball up and down the field without actually scoring. Since the FEI primarily measures efficiency, we’re much lower. It assumes we’re going to continue turning the ball over at the same rate.
I’m not predicting a loss. As I mentioned earlier, I agree with your assessment. The FEI projection just gives me pause; the model correctly predicted the outcomes of our last two games.
“I’m no expert on the model…”
Argh. Why can’t we edit posts here? Guess I need to start proof reading.
It accounts for SOS, but using the NCAA version. Sagarin rates Pitt’s SOS as 105th.
And you’re right – it assumes we’ll keep turning it over at the current rate. I think we will keeping turning it over, sadly (how can you not at this point) but I dont think at the same rate implied by the first 2 games.
ND 44-PITT 9. We are head and shoulders above this team. Their secondary is a joke and their run d only looks decent due to their week opponents thus far. Meanwhile, our d is hitting on all cylinders and will demoralize their offense from the start.
1) What is up with the “Genac” thing? Is that some sort of localized Pittsburgh thing? I don’t recognize the word.
2) There has been a whole lot of press given to Pitts’ multiple looks and coverages on D. At Tulsa, they had an extremely aggressive, blitzing 3-4 D that (unlike ND) had the backers all over the place, in different spots, causing confusion. They matched that with exotic coverages in the back, mixing in man, zone, cloud zones, switch zones, etc. They are trying to do the same thing at Pitt, but a) they don’t have the personnel having switched from Wanny’s 4-3 set, and b) exotic and complicated schemes are great, but only if your kids understand what they are doing.
I think its obvious from Pitts pass D that these kids just don’t understand the defense yet. In a press conference, their D coordinator even said that they are going to simplify the coverages and D play-calling this week to let the kids just focus on the little things. So I would expect a lot of vanilla cover 2, cover 2 man, and single high man with the MLB and FS in zone. With the way their secondary is playing, Floyd could have 400 yards unless they really, really play a safe, shell defense like BC did last year.
For that reason, I expect big games from Wood and Gray, as well as lots of underneath passes to Riddick and Eifert.
I always ask myself the same question about #1. I thought it was some inside-ND student thing that i didnt get since i wasnt a student. I dont think we’ve ever had a good explanation on that term here.
Also, did I miss it, or has the IBG not come out this week?
“Genac” is a made-up word in a Pitt cheer and in the Pitt fight song. Both contain the phrase: Allegheny-genac-genac-genac. Nobody knows what it means or why it’s in the song. I’m just impressed that Biscuit knows it. I grew up in Pittsburgh and moved back, and I never heard of it until I came across Pittsburgh Irish band “Ceann” and its lyrics:
Allegheny-genac-genac
Yinz want a beer n’at?
Yinz want a beer n’at?
Ere’s ahrn at ‘is bar!
For whatever that’s worth.
Joe has it. It’s in the Pitt fight song. My roommate and I heard it at ND and mocked it enthusiastically when we played the Panthers.
Brad’s right. Pitt’s D is going to play a simpler scheme until the players can figure out the more complicated one. However, anticipating a complicated scheme, Brian Kelly said he’s going to simplify things for Tommy and probably give him some half-field reads and put less pressure on him to make the right check. It will be interesting to see which adjustment is more effective, considering they don’t both need to happen.
I think their D will be relatively vanilla, but they’ll drop a ton and try to make us grind out drives on the ground to win. Last year I would be afraid of this. With Wood and the OL this year, though, not worried at all. We can win this game on the ground.
Keith Arnold has an IBG post up:
http://irish.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/ibg-life-at-the-quarter-turn/