Boise State was really good last year. Boise State was also really hated which definitely effected how some people analyzed how good of a team they were. Pat Forde’s incessant bus tweets notwithstanding, it took an epic comeback by one of the most prolific dual-threat QBs in recent memory AND a monumental choke job by Boise’s kicker for them to lose their only game last year. The glee I saw on twitter when the Nevada kick went through the uprights was unmatched by anything else I saw last year. (Disclaimer: I unfortunately witnessed the ND-Navy game live)
Now, unlike other writers on this site, I prefer using opponent adjusted stats when I make proclamations about how a team performed in a given season.
Boise finished the year with the #4 offense and #3 defense using adjusted points per game (link) and were the #2 team in the final F+/- rankings to end the season. (link). They were scary good. They beat amost all the teams they were supposed to beat and did so in a dominating fashion. Were they #2 good? I doubt it but they were easily a top-5 team last year.
Boise returns a great deal of their team from last season, including their Heisman candidate QB. The only potential position downgrades on the roster are at WR (Austin Pettis & Titus Young were both drafted) and defensive back. They have experienced depth returned on both lines. And Chris Peterson is still coaching them.
The biggest factor to expect another top 5 performance from Boise? Once again, their schedule. Their season is essentially 2 games.
- Opening Weekend at Georgia in Atlanta
- The November 12th game in Boise against TCU. (A game that should have been played at TCU but the MWC wanted to give TCU a nice middle finger on TCU’s way out of the conference)
In sum, Boise returns their best running back, their Heisman caliber QB, their head coach that has lost 4 games in his tenure and they have a schedule that boils down to 2 games. Factor in a small downgrade/loss of production at WR, and Boise State falls in at #7.
Much Better Previews:
Football Study Hall (link)
….
7. Boise State (PootND)
8. BYU (DMQ)
9. Arkansas (Biscuit)
10. Wisconsin (Grantland-X)
11. Nebraska (DMQ)
12. LSU (Biscuit)
13. Virginia Tech (PootND)
14. Stanford (DMQ)
15. Florida (Biscuit)
16. Notre Dame (PootND)
17. TCU (DMQ)
18. Georgia (Biscuit)
19. Michigan State (PootND)
20. Texas (DMQ)
21. Ole Miss (Biscuit)
22. Mississippi State (PootND)
23. South Carolina (DMQ)
24. Ohio State (Biscuit)
25. Arizona State (PootND)
Photo Source : Off The Pond (link)
- Florida State 18, Notre Dame 14: A Quick Recap - December 29, 2011
- Stanford 28, Notre Dame 14: A Quick Recap - November 27, 2011
- Notre Dame 16, Boston College 14: A Quick Recap - November 21, 2011
Top 5 teams don’t lose to Nevada. Period.
Don’t mind your ranking here – think it’s right on. But I don’t buy the Top 5 in ’10 thing…
Click the Football Study Hall preview and read the story in the first couple of graphs to see how a team could lose 1 game and still be ridiculously good.
I agree a team could lose 1 game and be awesome. I don’t agree they could be that awesome if they’re BSU and lose that game to Nevada. Nevada played the 84th most difficult schedule last year. BSU played the 81st. I’d look awesome too if I played hoops against 6th graders (assuming they werent very good)
The fact that their schedule has two meaningful games is the reason you see hatred for them, and why I can’t consider them an elite team.
And I don’t buy the “They can’t help that their conference is shitty” argument. They choose to be in it.
Well, I obviously didn’t make it clear. I’m no fan of them and think ESPN overhyped them ridiculously. I still respect that they are a top-10 team.
Your use of opponent adjusted stats (/applaud) makes the SoS counterargument irrelevant. BSU was scary good last year, and probably won’t be much worse this year. Good preview.
I like the adjusted stats in theory, but I don’t think it fully equates to a level playing field. There are things beyond the actual competition (injuries, which gets to depth, etc) that come into play when playing a harder schedule that those stats can’t quite account for. I do really love the approach, but I don’t think it fully accounts for how amazingly weak their schedules are vs ND (and others)
I agree with that. And if I wasn’t so lazy, I would have brought that point up.
Who cares…the freakin picture with Forde and the Boise bus tour is awesome!!! That’s all the guy talked about last year was the bus and get on for Boise…classic PootND…well played.