After the debate Biscuit and DMQ had over the “FG Attempt That Never Was” during the week following the Michigan game, we realized that there’s an opportunity to have some fun with our hard-headed ways. Whenever possible, HLS will present a topic under a new series, “Debate THIS.” Either Biscuit or DMQ will present the topic, take a position, and challenge the other to debate in favor of the opposite position. And then later in the week, we’ll poll the readers to see who won.
After Purdue, it certainly felt like it. After Michigan (who sucked) it was tough to tell given all the QB issues with the backups, but he seemed at least balanced.
Against MSU? Once Crist caught fire and we were able to move the ball through the air? Kelly seemed to abandon it altogether.
Thus far this season, ND is 24th in the country in Total Offense with 451.3 ypg. Passing? 318.3 ypg, good for 8th (!) in the country. Rushing though? 133 ypg. 81st in the nation. Gulp.
Feels like last year right? Sounds kinda like last year? Well, that’s because it IS like last year, when ND finished 84th in the country in Rush Offense, with 128.25 ypg, and finished 5th in passing with 323.5 ypg. Pretty amazing if you think about it – we lost Tate and Clausen, started a whole new ‘era’ with a new coach and new system, and the run/pass mix, thus far, is almost identical.
We also heard time and again from Chuck that he was going to have a balanced attack, but it never materialized. Maybe it will under Kelly, it’s really too early to tell much, but I don’t KNOW that he’s dedicated to having a solid run game based on the information available thus far. And if I had to guess? I’d say probably not.
So after Purdue I thought Kelly was determined to run the ball. Now? I’m not so sure.
Here are the Run-Pass stat lines from the 3 games this year:
Purdue: 36 Run, 26 Pass; 58% Run. (in a new QB’s first game)
UM: 32 Run, 44 Pass; 42% Run. (in a game where backups played 40% of the snaps at QB)
MSU: 26 Run, 55 Pass; 32% Run. (in a game that, arguably, is the most indicative of what Kelly’s offense is designed to be)
Total for the season: 94 Run, 125 Pass; 43% Run.
AND these include any non-designed runs from Crist which were essentially broken pass plays, so the numbers are actually skewed more than this.
Look at that trend. As Dayne settles in, and as the team settles in, we’ve gone from 36 rushes, to 32 to 26. And from 26 to 44 to 55 passes. Now maybe that’s what the game dictated at the time. That’s possible. But I’m not so sure.
What’s challenging to me, and was frustrating in the MSU game, is that our running game looks pretty good. Allen is averaging 5.5 per carry, Cierre Wood (who hasnt looked great since the opener) is at 4.4 per carry – not bad at all. So we have legit production, and could have leaned more heavily on the run down the stretch to lengthen drives and to run down the clock/possess the ball (gasp!). (We had a drive at the end of the 1st half that lasted 22 seconds, when we needed that to be the final drive of the half. What did we do? Passed 3 times and punted. 22 seconds.)
What I DO think BK is committed to is running by passing. And what I mean by that is getting the ball into playmakers’ hands through short passes – bubble screens, quick outs, slants, and shuffle passes – that end up in the Passing stat line, but are actually running plays with rather long hand-offs. Now if we count that as running? We’re definitely committed.
But I don’t really – I count running as running. And I’m not so sure that we’re doing as Forrest Gump told us…
What say you, DMQ?
Don't take me, yourself, or life so seriously. This is supposed to be fun.
Biscuit co-founded HerLoyalSons in partnership with his ND roommate (Dillon Hall baby!), MQ, in 2006 and has been ranting about ND Football and everything Notre Dame since. He strongly believes in the mission of ND and its football program. Biscuit expects logic and data in arguments and will absolutely crush you if you come to a debate missing one or the other. He despises everything Michigan, and his favorite pastime is mocking Purdue.
- (Re)Introducing: DANCING LEPRECHAUNS - August 29, 2019
- Ticket Auction: ND vs USC - August 22, 2019
- No Respect! - December 14, 2018
Wasn’t our run-pass ratio abnormally high against Purdue last year too? I think I remember it being a significant outlier, which probably indicates that that is what works against Purdue and that it was just doubly convenient that it was Crist’s first game.
That was largely bc Clausen didn’t start due to his ‘turf toe’ and Dayne came in and ran a bunch of option/wildcat, switching off with Goodman and Tate back there.
Oh yeah, that’s right, but I now realize that I was actually thinking of two years ago, last time at ND stadium. I’m pretty sure everyone was pumped up because we looked to have a really solid running game. And then the rest of the season showed that it wasn’t us, it was Purdue.
That’s b/c Purdue didn’t have a linebacker on the roster that year. Not kidding. We basically just kept running where they no longer could place a linebacker. It was sort of sad.
Hey, look, someone tee’d this ball up for me and left this bat here. That was nice of them.
Already talking trash? Dude, it’s pretty clear based on the numbers. We’re headed back to last year – run a little, pass a TON.
Does it matter run or pass as long as we win?
Winning is the ultimate goal. But everyone has philosophies on how to get there. And Coach has said his is to be balanced. I’m not seeing that thus far is all. I wouldnt give two craps, though, if we were 3-0. And it’s not a huge deal to me now, either. Just something I’m seeing.
I don’t know what DMQ will say, but the numbers do show a trend in the rushing attempts, anyway. However, I do have a thought for why that might be: BK is trying to protect Dayne, because without him we might as well punt on first down. Our running game is designed to include a bunch of QB keepers, and if you don’t want your QB to keep the ball then the RB plays won’t work as well either. Teams know that, so they just crash the DE on the RB. Without the threat of the QB option, we might as well just pass most of the time. I’d like to see more draw plays, though, which I think those shovel passes essentially are.
I think that’s an astute observation. After all, on the read option, the QB does actually have to keep the ball on occasion to keep everyone honest. At the same time, I think it’s quite possible — probably even more so — that Kelly simply liked what he saw against MSU in regards to throwing the ball. Crist did throw mostly effectively; in fact, his % and numbers would have been even more impressive had he made the so-called “ball control” throws that BK mentioned in his presser yesterday.
The key thing for me, the thing I’m liking most out of the run game, is yards per carry. When you do decide to do it, how effective are you? That’s more important to me than how often or the percentage of time they do it.
I forgot to mention that Armando had a dislocated finger and Cierre appeared to be trying about as hard as (insert analogy of someone not trying hard). Jonas Gray had some nice runs, so they could have put him in there more I think. Anyway, those might have been other factors that pushed us to a bigger pass ratio.
Three games is not a good sample, but it is all we have to go on.
I would argue that the run/pass was skeewed in Michigan for two reasons. One, Michigan had no secondary, much like our depth, except worse. Two, when Crist came back we were two touchdowns behind so we had to throw.
Against MSU, the opposite was true. They have a weak secondary but very strong linebackers and front line. Running, while not futile, was difficult at the start of the game.
Also, a number of the plays to Allen and Riddick were essentially long hand-offs. They are designed to get the linebackers moving back and let the shovel, dump, etc reception move the ball. Thus, there were a fair number of passes that were ‘run like’ and they probably more than offset some of the broken run plays.
We will not have a power I offense with a fullback and two TEs running over right tackle while Kelly is the coach. I don’t think it matters. We thought that offense was boring under Davie.
Your comment made me realize something: Michigan’s secondary was supposed to be horrible and have no depth, yet all 3 of our QBs threw interceptions. So frustrating.
Eh. Crist threw for nearly 280 yards against them in about 1 half of football. They were really as bad as advertised, and Crist torched them pretty well. The other 2? Well, they’re not really ready.