I’m working on a post with a lot of number crunching around age/experience, and it’s taking a while. But it feels like the blog deserves a post and I’m lazy, so…lazy cop-out post:
How many games do you think the Irish will win this Fall?
Rather than put this up as a poll, I wanted to survey our readers and see what they’re expecting Kelly’s first year. Who will give us trouble? Who will we handle?
I’m planning on my annual game-by-game run down when the Irish start camp, but here’s my from-the-hip guess: 9-3, with a bowl loss, to finish 9-4.
I’d love to predict 10-11 wins, but this team still has holes, and the schedule (that’s SKED to you, Kermit) has more challenges than I think most people realize.
So, fire away, what are we looking at for this fall from your perspective?
Doesn’t get much lazier than this. Awesome.
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DagerOne
Hell, I’ll go first. I think we start the season 2-3, with Michigan being one of those losses. Why? Because I’ll be there, and we lose every time I see the game in person. In the end, we finish 7-6 with a loss in the bowl game.
And before anyone says it, I hope to Hell I’m wrong.
borromini
If what you say is true…please don’t go to the Michigan game.
DagerOne
I saw us win my freshman year in 1993. I’ve not witnessed an ND victory over Michigan since…including both of the the thirty-something to zero losses in Ann Arbor and last year’s debacle.
trey
I was going to go 8-4 with a Dec bowl win to go 9-4, but I couldnt brin myself to say we’d lose to Stan AND Navy/Utah/Tulsa. So i guess I have to say 9-3 with bowl win to move to 10-3. Losses to U$C(theyre still potent & more talented & at home), Pitt, Stan OR Navy, and one remaining against a team we SHOULD destroy, but treat like a team we should destroy & subsequently dont prepare for.
I know 9-3 usually gets us BCS bound where we are likely going to face far superior talent and probably only 1-loss, but read somewhere that says Kelly is the #3 coach in D1 to win gms he’s most likely to lose. However, if we go to Gator or Cotton or somethin on that lvl, chances are greater for the win
trey
Nvm, that solves my problem. 8-4 it is. Bowl win to 9-4
oaknd1
Let’s look at this objectively:
PURDUE: I always expect to beat Purdue. W
MICHIGAN: Toss-Up. I’m calling it a W because it’s at home, and also because we almost had this one last year.
@ Michigan St.: I’m always confident playing Purdue, I’m always expecting to lose when playing state on the road. also, I don’t think ND’s been undefeated in September in a decade (you’d have to look that up). L
STANFORD No Toby Gehrhardt and we have this one at home. W.
Boston College TBA I expect to win this game. Period. W
PITTSBURGH: We got screwed in pittsburgh last year. Screwed. Also Kelly has a history of beating Pitt. I’ll say W, because we’re at home but this one’ll be close.
WESTERN MICHIGAN Losing this one should be a firing offense even in year one. having said that, this will come down to a late fourth quarter TD drive by Crist. (You know this is true). W (but we’ll all be pissed anyway)
Navy: We’re done losing to Navy for another generation. W
TULSA: I don’t thin Tulsa’s a bad team at all. I’m expecting to win, but i also expect this to be a lot better game then anyone’s giving it credit for. W (barely)
UTAH: Utah is being unfairly lumped in with W. Michigan and Tulsa in ND fans arrogant dismay at playing opponents that would be beneath us in 1992. Now I’m not sure. This is a trap game with Yankee Stadium and USC on the horizon and one loss on the record. L (utah kicks FG with no time on the clock).
ARMY (Yankee Stadium) we win this game by three touchdowns.
Southern Cal: Win. Period. This is the year if for no other reason than because everyone will be able to point out that we couldn’t beat them when they were at their best.
by my count, that’s 10-2.
Jarett
I agree with all of this except for Southern Cal. We’re just not going to beat them. We’re not ready yet. I don’t doubt Kelly can eventually get us beating them consistently, but there’s too much we just can’t do yet. We need a powerful, extremely fast defense to beat them, and we don’t have it yet.
Then we go to a bowl game, and probably win. 10-3.
oaknd1
to believe this you have to believe that we will not be a touchdown better this year then last when it was 34-27 SC. Not saying you’re wrong…just saying.
oaknd1
no matter what…i end up at 10-2 as the summer changes to fall. Happens every year.
SDI
I’ll say 10-2 with losses to BC and Pitt. Michigan State will be a tough game, but the Spartan D struggles when you spread them out. I think BK finds a way to win that game. Stanford will also be close, but the Irish win in a shootout with Luck doing his best to steal the game. Pitt has too much talent on the D line and at running back–the Stache avenges his loss to BK last year. After that, the Irish roll through the rest of the schedule, survive a scare from Utah, upset SC at the Coliseum and win a bowl game over a solid opponent–I’ll say Virginia Tech.
The Biscuit
optimistic thus far. if this keeps up i may have to change my reg season prediction to 8-4 to reign you folks in…
DagerOne
I don’t mind being the negative norman here. I will be the happiest wrong guy on the planet if my predictions prove to be well south of how we actually perform.
oaknd1
oh biscuit…you’re the king.
#christhatwasobscureifeeldirty
SDI
I’m with OAK. I tend to predict 9 or 10 wins every year. Because as I look at the sched, I always find 9 or 10 teams with less talent than ND. This year, with a proven winner at the helm, I expect to see ND beat less talented teams almost always.
SDI
Also, SC might technically still have more first string talent than ND, but they’re paper thin, and Kiffin is a train wreck waiting to happen.
Pat
I’d say 7 or 8 wins. I expect MSU, Stanford, BC and Pitt ALL to be tough games in addition to Utah and, naturally, USC. Michigan will be looking for blood, too, but I expect to win that one at home. Wins against Purdue, Western Michigan, Navy, Tulsa and Army has us cruising to five wins; where the other ones come from is a toss up. I’ll try to stay positive and say 8-4 with anything beyond 8 wins being gravy.
borromini
9-3, but with a bowl victory. The extra few weeks to practice in December will allow Kelly to get the Irish ready for the post season match-up.
N2
Seriously? Are we returning a veteran QB and championship-level defense that I’m forgetting about? 6-6, with losses to SC, BC, MSU, Utah and two of Stanford, Navy, Tulsa or Michigan. Hope this is over-pessimistic, of course, but pretty sure it isn’t.
SDI
N2–If you haven’t already, find some video of Zach Collaros playing for Tony Pike last year at Cinci. If there is one thing I am confident about, it’s Kelly’s ability to get a QB up to speed fast. Admittedly, the D has much to prove. But the talent is there and the system is a better fit this year.
Utah is rebuilding and that game is later in the year when presumably the new schemes are more fully developed for ND. Stanford has a woeful defense and a great QB with no game breakers to hand or throw the ball to. 9 or 10 wins might be a bit rosey, but I can’t see ND losing 6 against this schedule.
borromini
Collaros came in mid-season so he really had the fall camp and 4 to 5 games to get ready. The question is can Kelly get Crist ready with just spring and fall camp all while recovering from surgery?
SDI
True, but how many reps do you think Collaros was getting as a second stringer? Crist will be hogging the first team reps all spring and fall.
oaknd1
although you might be right, i would call 6 losses a dismal failure with this schedule.
don’t forget: Dayne Crist was a 5-star recruit who had Jimmy Clausen to look to as an example and some decent playing time against Purdue and Washington State last season. If he can stay healthy (knock on wood), then the difference between him and an established veteran should be eliminated after the Michigan (sucks) game.
E-Man
Just to show you how educated I am about this prediction process, I had to pull up the ND ‘sked and look through it as I write this up
1-0 Purdue: We better beat them, they got some talent but not enough
2-0 Michigan: Should have beat them last year, working against pressure to win and a hurt star last year. ND’s defense will be better than Michigan’s for the first time in what, 8 years? 15?
3-0 MSU: I really hate MSU and this series seems to have more of a “away team wins” vibe than any other on the planet. ND and MSU want this one WAYYY too much.
3-1 Stanford: I hate him, but Jimmy H is looking like a pretty good coach. ND is rocking after going 3-0 against the Big Ten, then gets dropped into reality by a team pretty close to them talent wise. Kinda like the MSU game in Weis’ first year. Sides, Pac-10 Refs will be in the house.
3-2 BC: Getting the full tour of screw jobs, the ACC refs will not be outdone by their Pac-10 breathren.
4-2 Pitt: Kelly knows these guys, knows how to play them, and has last year’s history on his side. My gut feel is that Pitt will play all out to start, and have nothing left in the second half.
5-2 WMU: Um, they’re the Broncos, right? Don’t know anything about them so this is the most least-educated part of the posting.
6-2 Navy: The only reason ND lost to Navy two of the past three times was that they couldn’t play focused defense. My gut feel says that those times are DONE.
6-3 Tulsa: No one has played them before. Used to be a pretty high flying offense, plus 7-2 looks a little too optimistic.
6-4 Utah: The Utes got something to prove.
7-4 Army: See Navy, except they don’t have the success that Navy does.
7-5 USC: The games out at USC are always ugly. Second half doesn’t start until 10ET, ND always looks sluggish. Although a down year for USC, not a team to sleep walk into
Trying to pick a bowl game is beyond crazy, but I’ll bite.
Gator Bowl vs FSU. ND wins this in a bizzarro Orange Bowl fashion 1996, where they win an ugly game punctured with obvious officiating gaffes, and a terrible half-time show of Ashley Simpson.
Final record 8-5
The Biscuit
wait, E-man, you’re saying we beat Pitt (a Top 20 team for sure) but lose to Tulsa? to each his own, but i’m not buying that combination of events.
trey
Ive never seen ACC refs really out to screw ND. Not like Integer refs at all.
E-Man
Every year in CFB there are teams that beat a more highly ranked foe that they are familar with, and who have also fallen to a “lesser” team that they do not have experience with.
I think Kelly will make it his mission to beat (or more specifically, not lose to) Pitt, however, there’s got to be a couple of trap games between that six game start and USC while learning a new system/attitude. Why not a high scoring team with something to prove?
But hey, at this time of the year, what’s anyone’s guess worth?
The Biscuit
valid points.
GB
I think the only losses will be to Pitt and USA. With the talent Kelly has, if he does not do at least 10-2 this year, then I don’t see him with more talent until 4 years from now except for next year. The big question will be the D. I think they have the talent to be in the top 30 on D. We’ll see about the coaching.
OderName
Eternally optimistic Pollyanna here . . .
PURDUE: W
MICHIGAN: W (Only negative here is that this is the last year we have DickRod to fear)
@ Michigan St.: W (We have non-home field advantage)
STANFORD: W
Boston College: L (Just no confidence against the best Catholic football program over the last 3 years)
PITTSBURGH: W (Kelly knows these guys too well, and can beat them with Cincy-level talent)
WESTERN MICHIGAN: W
Navy: W
TULSA: W
UTAH: L (Not sure how we lose this – two weeks to prepare, following wee is not a huge game, etc, just don’t feel good about this)
ARMY: W
Southern Cal: L (We’re a year away from Kelly-ball being in full effect at ND and ramifications of Poodle’s cheating setting in at SC)
Bowl Game: L (10-2 gets us into another BCS game where we’re overmatched but at least put up a good fight this time.
OderName
Sorry, meant 9-3, but same analysis of a BCS game.
Brad
I say we lose only two games, to some combination of MSU, Pitt, and Utah.
We’ll take Stanford, because they won’t be the same without Gerhardt. BC will be a big statement game for Kelly, and I think Kelly closes out the season with our first win in a long time over USC. I think this happens because after a loss or two USC’s new team and new coach really start to unravel a bit when they realize they have nothing to play for for the next 2 years. Also, while Pappy Kiffin is the finest D coach around, I think he has a tad of trouble against the Oregon/ND spread attacks.
Brad
Oh, and for the bowl game, its a toss up. Depends what happens to us.
SDI
Agree completely Brad with your prediction of USC and Kiffikins melting down.
TheNDleprechaun
8-4 Regular Season (3-3 start) followed by a Bowl Win
Blue Fan
Hopefully the Irish go 0-12. For the next 20 years!
The Biscuit
Weakest trash talking, ever.
trey
I hope they go 0-infinity for the next BILLION CAGILLION YEARS!!!!
BigE
Wow, for the life of me, I am unable to look at the schedule and pick which game is a loss. I had similar issues last year what with the experienced talent returning for Weis. It takes three things to be a winner – coaching, talent and experience. Coaching was obviously missing last year, but BK is proven and has talent and experience in most areas. It’s a winning recipe for every game, yet I’ll force myself to select MSU, Stanford and Pittsburgh as the losses. These are all in the first half of the year and we will get stronger as the year continues. USC, however, will be in disarray. We will also win a BCS bowl.
TBoneND
9-3 + bowl win = 10-3
Last year ND lost 2 games by 7 USC, Stanford
1 by 5 Pitt, 1 by 4 skunkbears, 1 by 3 U Conn and 1 by 2 Navy.
ND lost 6 games by an average of 4.3 points.
I would like to go with even more wins but I’ll settle with 10-3.
ND died in the 4th qtr last year. This will not happen in 2010.
Go Irish!
E-Man
Too true, however, remember ND also squeaked out a number of wins that were less than 7 points:
– MSU
– Purdue
– Washington
– BC
I really think that the key is consistent good defense for all four quarters. Maybe switching back to the 3-4 which ND has the players for, and a consistent message from the coaching staff that is working as one will help with that.
tjak
If freaking Mark May says we are going to win 10 games and he was freaking right about us over the past several years, then I am going to say 10 wins as well. I am not going to speculate on the losses, I just cannot bring myself to do it. I will say that we will not lose to FUSC because the time has come and I want to hear FUSC fans blame it all on the NCAA sanctions.
SDI
Don’t forget Mark May predicted ND would start out 0-5 in CW’s first year. He was right in the end, but don’t give him more credit than he’s due.
tjak
SDI, fine no more credit then he is due, but every time the Irish have had a chance to prove him wrong, they have folded and it has been frustrating to watch that s@#$g%%!6& twit’s smug face. I look forward to the Irish proving the pundits wrong, just like they did in the Holtz era.