On the surface, certain teams look tough while others look weak. This is why people automatically assume that Navy is an easy game – because, well, IT’S NAVY RIGHT???? A SERVICE ACADEMY!!! Forget that they’re a perennial bowl team now, forget that they’re good, hardworking athletes in a tough-to-defend system, right? No more. No more I say! No longer will we look at the schedule based on the name alone!
I’m not quite ready to call games yet – I’ll do that way too early sometime in July. But for now, we can at least block and tackle around how difficult we think the games will be. Here’s my rating system.
T is for Tough. This is the top tier set of teams against which ND will take the field. This has literally no reflection on ‘tiers’ as some people talk about them though. This is just, flat-out, how much of a challenge I think this game will be, this year.
C is for Competitive. Should be a good game, but not quite at that top tier of difficulty.
F is for Flip. As in Coin Flip. Could be a Competitive game, or could go the other way and be a bit of a cakewalk. Just tougher to place right now, based on the info available. But definitely not the level of competition as the C’s, let alone the T’s.
J is for Joke. We should just freaking whomp these teams. Syracuse and SDSU have shown that, recently, this hasn’t been guaranteed. But, here’s to hoping that the Jokes are Jokes in 2010.
With no further delay, off we go.
Purdue – other than being boring as all hell, Purdue will be coming to town with a relatively young team, full of piss and vinegar and sleeping pills. The new coaching staff is a help, but Purdue doesn’t really have the firepower to compete with ND, especially with their search for a new starting QB and with their best RB out to injury. And especially at home.
Holes: O-line (3 new starters needed), DBs (need to find 4 guys), QB (Elliot’s gone but Transfer Marve is the heir apparent), and RB (Bolden was going to be tough, but his ACL ended the season before it began)
2009 Record: 5-7
Rating: F. Coin Flip. This could really go either way. Purdue could be a competitive game, but I don’t expect it to come down to the wire like last year. Plus, they’re F-ing boring, so that reinforces the F.
Michigan – RichRod continues to be a dream hire for UM, if you’re looking at it through ND-colored glasses. Scandal, idiotic public statements, NCAA investigations and lawsuits. Not to mention a horrible record. The skunkbears bring back the bulk of their production from last year, a team that beat ND, but still fell to a sub-.500 record. While the offense returns most of their production, the defense remains a huge question mark. This could be a high-scoring game if the ND D hasn’t improved.
Holes: Coaching, Entire Defense, Any Offensive Skill Players over 5′ and over 150 lbs.
2009 Record: 5-7
Rating: C. I’d love to put this as an F, because everything is up in the air when RR is involved, but UM (sucks) always comes into ND and plays tough. Well, except 2 years ago. But they were a serious mess then. Now? Just a mess. So I think it will be a Competitive game.
Michigan State – Dantonio hasn’t yet gone insane, but many of his players did, going off and getting into a brawl during the off-season. This after they parlayed a 6-6 regular season into a bowl game loss to finish 6-7. Granted, they lost a lot of those games like ND won/lost last year – by a few points at the last second. But I don’t see a lot of improvement here vs the roster last year, and the issues internally have to point to some other problems.
Holes: Running game, DE pass rush and DBs and their pass coverage. Kicking game. ND will toss the ball all over the field against these guys.
2009 Record: 6-7, with 15 arrests
Rating: F. Another coin flip. MSU could be a decent squad this year, but given their issues on Defense, and their off-field problems of the past year, I would guess that they’ll end up more like Purdue. Meaning, Meh.
Stanford – Hate to say it, but Harbaugh has turned things around in Palo Alto, and Stanford should be decent again this year. While I think talk of a Pac-10 title is a bit overblown, they should be a solid 8-4/9-3 type team in 2010.
Holes: Huge hole at RB with the departure of Gerhart. He was the basis of the offense, and the Cardinal (only one now!) haven’t found a replacement yet. So more of the offense will fall on the shoulders of Luck, a pretty capable QB. On Defense, Stanford should be much improved, but will still likely struggle against the Pass.
2009 Record: 8-4
Rating: C. This will be a solid, competitive game. Man, I hope we kill them.
Boston College – How is it that BC always gives ND fits, even when, on paper, they should just suck? Well, most likely, it’s because they’ve actually hired good coaches over the last decade, while ND floundered and F’d around with people overrated or learning on the job. Did you know that BC has gone to a Bowl Game 11 straight years? This isn’t a program that will ever be elite – they’ll probably never win a MNC no matter what – but they are almost always, always good. And they’ve been much better than ND for the past decade. Sad.
Holes: Entire passing game, starting with QB to the receiving corps. But Harris is a demon at RB. The DL is relatively weak as well, but the LBs are strong. DBs will be meh, but overall they’ll be tough on D.
2009 Record: 8-5, with a bowl loss to USC
Rating: C. Gonna be another tough go against BC. I’m getting sick of it.
Pitt – Pitt will be one of the top-ranked foes on ND’s 2010 sked. Who’d have thought that this would be the case – the Wanstache returning Pitt to Top 15 status while Weis gets the boot – after that first-game shellacking that CW handed to the Stache back in the day? Well, it’s come to pass and this will be a battle for ND. Next to USC, Pitt will be the toughest game of the year. Why? Solid defense, and a really good running game.
Holes: Big, honking hole at QB where Stull has graduated (he wasn’t great anyway, but still a new starter) and some weakness at CB.
2009 Record: 9-3
Rating: T. Outside of QB, Pitt is fairly talented and experienced. It really looks like a pretty solid, Top 20 ball club, that could break the Top 10 if their QB situation evolves. Gonna be a tough one.
Western (for God’s Sake) Michigan – Okay, so this is where I go against my own mantra here where I say I’m going to evaluate the team and not the name. This is Western Michigan. If Michigan sucks, what does Western Michigan do? I don’t know, but it’s not good. (By the way, fun trivia – did you know that EASTERN Michigan is in the WESTERN division of the MAC. Ha).
Holes: Everything, because they’re a team from a direction of a state. But really, QB and Defense (most of it) are issues for the Broncos.
2009 Record: 5-7, with losses to Indiania, NIU, Central Michigan, Kent State and Ball State.
Rating: J. This game should be an effing blowout. If ND doesn’t start killing teams they’re supposed to kill, I will start to be upset.
Navy – Navy is a good program. How many times can I say it? Three more: Navy is a good program, Navy is a good program, Navy is a good program. Last year Navy finished with 10 wins (they played an extra game, which helped them and all, but 10 wins is good regardless) against a tough schedule that included ND, Pitt, Ohio State and Mizzou.
Holes: Linebacker, and a bit in the defensive secondary. Oline. But overall they are deep and experienced on offense.
2009 Record: 10-4 with a Texas Bowl victory over Mizzou.
Rating: C. I’m tempted to give them a T simply to make my point, but it’s not accurate. Navy is outmanned most weeks in terms of talent. But they make up for it in the scheme and in being awesome at executing the game plan. Gonna be a tough one. Again.
Tulsa – Tulsa was a solid team in 2007 and 2008 due to a solid offense that could just flat-out score, and sort of fell apart last year with an inexperienced O-line. But they return most of their production from last year. The bad for them? The defense hasn’t been good, and won’t be, especially against the pass.
Holes: Defense, especially the secondary.
2009 Record: 4-7
Rating: F. You know, based on the name and last year, everyone would love to call this a Joke. But I don’t think so. I think Tulsa could give the Irish fits, especially if their O returns to 07-08 form. I think ND has a strong edge, but I don’t think this is quite Ha Ha Funny land. Flip a coin I think – could be a blowout, or it could be Competitive.
Utah – Here’s another game that, based on the name, people would like to assume a blowout ND win. Not so fast. Utah will bring an explosive offense much like Tulsa, but also like Tulsa they will bring question marks on D. They’ll have more talent on the line, but they’re inexperienced at LB and CB/S.
Holes: Wide receiver, LB and Secondary. Not the O, but the D.
2009 Record: 9-3, with all 3 losses against quality programs (Oregon, TCU and BYU)
Rating: C. I think this will be a competitive game, though I’m tempted to put it as a F because of the losses in the defensive secondary with ND tossing the ball all over the place. But I think Utah will be another solid 8/9 win squad, and they could give ND some fits. That said, I think they’re more like a hybrid C/F. Maybe a D-?
Army – Army, despite being a proud institution that does great work keeping all of us safe, isn’t great at football. Not in a long, long time. They were much improved last year, with a shot at a Bowl game that fell just short, but they still struggle to find a clear identity.
Holes: Dline, RB. And in general, over-matched.
2009 Record: 5-7
Rating: J. I hate to say this will be a blowout, but ND in Yankee Stadium? Blowout.
Southern California – The Kiffin era begins, with multiple NCAA infractions and what I think will be lots of restrictions. They’ll still be good, but they won’t be the same. I think the days of USC dominance are over, in the PAC-10 and on the field with ND. That said, USC is still relatively stacked compared to most squads, and even Kiffin can’t completely screw that up (that is, until he’s caught literally handing the keys to the SUV to his new stud RB recruit, which WILL happen).
Holes: QB (if you can call Barkley being ‘meh’ as a Frosh a hole), WR (if you can call only bringing back 1 of 2 absurd WRs a hole) and Defensive Secondary (if you can…well, you get the point, they still have plenty of talent)
2009 Record: 9-4
Rating: T. Tough game. Though we see some weaknesses in USC, they’ll still be a top-tier team until Kiffin can run the program into the ground through horrible coaching and shady recruiting practices. The sanctions will hurt a little this year, but they won’t really have an impact til later.
Summary
ND’s schedule isn’t really all that clear-cut. We know we have 2 really Tough games. Both are winnable if ND makes great strides, but they will be tall orders for 1st-year coach BK.
We have 5 Competitive games on the schedule. Games where ND has a good chance to come out with a W, but it will be a tough go of it.
We have 3 games where I’m not quite sure where to place the other programs – they could be blowouts, or they could be challenges for ND. But ND should win the majority here.
And we have 2 Jokes – games where ND, really, should just blow the team out of the water. SHOULD is the operative word here.
It’s a pretty balanced schedule really – 2 at the top, 2 at the bottom, 5 really good challenges that ND can win, and 3 where ND has a distinct advantage but could turn into a battle.
If we apply some odds to these buckets, we can get a glimpse of what a decent ND squad would do against this schedule. Chances of ND winning each type of game, in my estimation:
T – 25%, C – 60%, F – 80%, J – 90%. That results in a guesstimation of 8-4 as a record.
That’s not a prediction, just a toss-out based on this preliminary guesswork/math. We’ll predict game by game later, and get a bit more focused in on the details. But I think if ND comes out on the better side of good, 8-4 is the floor.
- (Re)Introducing: DANCING LEPRECHAUNS - August 29, 2019
- Ticket Auction: ND vs USC - August 22, 2019
- No Respect! - December 14, 2018
Ska
Michigan State my be tougher than most ND people think. Dantonio is a good coach. MSU players believe they can go out and party WTF before a game. I have seen this happen. Sometimes it goes in their favor sometimes not. Don’t think this will happen under Dantonio. Urban Liar would give these same guys, who got in a fight at a dorm, a new AK and pat them on the head for a job well done.
TXIrish2
I want to go along with this, but I feel like I would rate Michigan State as a C, and probably Stanford or Utah as a T. At least one of those two teams I would say we’ve got less than a 60% chance of winning.
Maybe I’m wrong, and just can’t rinse myself of the emotional residue Charlie left me with. Hopefully 2 games into the season Kelly has restored my faith.
Craig
Bear in mind that Tulsa’s emergence as a scary offensive team coincided with Gus Malzahn’s tenure there. Since he’s moved on to OC at Auburn, I think it’s questionable whether they’ll rebound. I don’t know that I move them all the way off of ‘F’, but it’s leaning a lot more ‘J’ than ‘C’.
tjak
I just want a pint of Kilkenny in my hand, the first tailgate to start and to pound the living sh#@&*!! out of Purdue. Man I do not want to rush life, but I cannot wait till’ September 4th.
The Biscuit
Craig, I took that into consideration. But they brought in some new Assts to help coordinate the O, and it’s a formula that worked before. That + the experience made them an F instead of a J. But admittedly, an F is a ‘i dont know’ so it could very much go either way.
TX, I could maybe see MSU as a C, but I dont know about putting Utah up with Pitt and USC. Stanford will 100% depend on how much Luck develops, since they lose 99% of their offensive production with Gerhart gone. That makes me feel like it’s tough to put them at the top of the heap. Can Luck carry the O? I don’t know – so they’re a C.
GB
I think this is a pretty good list. I would also say MSU as a C. They seem to always get up for the game. As far as Stanford goes, it seems as if you are saying that ND has only a 25 % chance of beating Stanford and inversely Stanford has a 75% chance of beating ND. I would think ND is favored in this game. Harbaugh is a good coach. I think this is a definite C game. Utah has been pretty good lately. I give this a T and maybe a C and definitely not a F
The Biscuit
GB, I have Stanford as a C game (60% chance of ND winning), not a T. Agree on a C for Utah, though I think it’s more likely to be an F than a T.
BTW, I love this random letter scale I developed.
Mattare
Bold prediction: BK doesn’t lose once to Navy in his years at ND. There’s a reason we pieced together such a long winning streak against them–we outmatch them at just about every position every single year. All it takes for the Irish to come out on top is focus and their “C” game.
One of the things that appeals the most to me about BK is the fact that he’s incredibly attentive to detail. That Holtz-esque focus should prevent slip-ups against teams that we should spank every year like Navy.
trey
To me, every year against Navy, it is piss-poor technique that always gets us. You KNOW what they’re going to do, ND is 500% more talented, but yet they always move the ball on us for at least a half before we can consistently slow them down. Why? Players are out of position, taking S***y angles to the ball carrier, and not taking the bastard down once they get to him.