I don’t know if Weis will be our coach much longer, and I know it’s ‘exciting’ (I actually think it’s the worst thing in the world) to have another coaching search because, well, maybe this will be THE ONE, right? Right???? But let’s not all get lost on the next step when the current step isn’t yet concluded, and very much in doubt.
Charlie Weis is still our coach. From the interviews this week, the kids are still behind him. They all came here to play for Weis, and they’re ready to throw down to support the guy. Swarbrick is still behind him, at least publicly (though you have to assume the due diligence is underway just in case we crap the bed to close out the season). The fans? Alums? Another story. And I get it, I’m with ya’ll.
But nothing makes me more sick than the ‘ND fan’ that’s hoping we lose and lose big so we can move on with the coaching search. You know who you are out there, and there are a lot of you.
This team can still have a good year. It’s not going to be what we all expected, or what we wanted, and it won’t be a team living up to its potential, but a 9-3 regular season is serious progress from 3-9 two years ago, and will get us into a decent bowl. It will keep our momentum going with recruits and (gasp!) is likely to keep Weis around.
In fact, the only results that pretty much guarantee a firing are a 6-6 or a 7-5 finish. 9-3 and he’s almost sure to be around for another year. 8-4 probably depends on how that final loss goes down (e.g. tight, last minute loss to top-ranked Pitt, vs stink-bomb loss at home to UCONN ala Syracuse last year).
The chances of winning out aren’t great given our issues on defense, maybe 10%. Chances of dropping just one are decent, probably 35%. Chances of losing to both Pitt and Stanford are decent too, probably 45%. Chances of dropping all 3? 10%. Yeah, I’m just eye-balling this, but that means we have a 45% chance at having Weis around for another year assuming Swarbrick gives him one more shot at 8-4 (and I’m guessing he will). Even if you assume I’m way off and we’re much more likely to drop 2, there’s still probably a 30% chance that we win out or only drop 1. ~1 in 3 isn’t all that unlikely folks.
So unless you’re rooting for losses, don’t just assume that the change will happen. There’s a decent chance it won’t.
At this point, I don’t know anyone that can openly support Charlie. Not with the current body of work. But I’m really, really, really pulling for a 9-3 final record and a bowl-win. Because no matter what, I want ND to win. I’d take that 10% any day.
Go Irish. Beat Pitt.