We don’t know what exactly the 12-person committee will use as criteria for which teams make the final cut. We don’t know if they’ll take injuries or suspensions into account. We don’t know how they’ll weigh conference championships. We don’t know if they’ll show compassion for a team that lost in the final seconds of an epic top five show down because of a controversial offensive penalty that negated a game-winning score. We don’t know anything, really.

Several committee members have noted that they watch upwards of fifty teams a week. Not just the top teams, but also the teams that the top teams play, specifically the ones that will be considered common denominators. I imagine, and this is just me, that teams that cross conference lines such as Clemson, South Carolina, or Arizona State will be major influences even if they don’t have realistic chances to make the Football Four themselves.

I broke down the top teams into three tiers. The top tier are the current “guarantees” if there are such a thing at this point. The second tier will be the teams fighting for the last one or two spots. The third tier are the teams that need some help outside of their own schedule.

Tier One: 

• Mississippi State – The widely-considered top team in the nation has by far the best resume. They have wins against three top ten teams (at the time of kickoff) and they’ve been one of the most consistent and dominant teams in all of their wins (their only single-digit winning margin was on the road against LSU).
• Ole Miss – While they don’t have as many top wins as their magnolia state brethren, they did knock of Alabama, skyrocketing them into the top three. the rest of their wins have been just as dominant as Mississippi State, but not against quite as high of talent thus far.
• Florida State – If the Seminoles were a Friends episode, it would be called “The one that didn’t die”. This team has found ways to eke out wins when it shouldn’t have. If they do fall at some point, the voters will likely make them pay for it.

For now, these teams are in. Unfortunately for the two Mississippi teams, the Egg Bowl could be the first of potentially four straight playoff games for the winner. If both teams win out, the Egg Bowl decides the SEC West winner, who will then have to play in the SEC Championship, then into the NCAA playoffs. Only one of these teams will get in. I feel like any team that gets a loss in the last two weeks of the season will be toast. That’s just how voters remember things.

Florida State will likely win out. The ACC is terrible and FSU has already faced the hardest teams on their schedule. So barring some incredible upset that would likely make the entire nation celebrate, we have to assume the Seminoles are going to be in the playoffs.

Tier Two:

I saved this one for last because it is the deepest and in the most flux. If you’re a Notre Dame fan, these are the teams we need to watch closely if we hope to get back into the top four. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the top tier, but likely two out of those three teams are going to be in the playoffs. That leaves just two more spots open. At this point, it’s going to be hard to see an outcome where two SEC teams don’t go. The SEC West is just too incredibly deep, and as we’ll see shortly we can’t count out Georgia out of the East either.

• Alabama – Of all the one-loss teams in the SEC West, Bama has the best shot of stealing the conference. A win over Mississippi State throws the entire nation into a mess, let alone the division.
• Auburn – Similar to Alabama, Auburn has plenty of chances to win out against big teams and still take the division. No matter what, the Iron Bowl likely decides which team gets eliminated.
• Oregon – The Ducks’ big problem was originally that Michigan State looked like not such a big win, but now it’s looking a lot better. Now their problem lies in the schedule. With no big games remaining until the conference championship, it’s hard for Oregon to impress anyone on the committee.
• Notre Dame – Some people are saying Notre Dame’s loss almost helped the Irish as much as a win at least in perception of if they belong with the big boys. Notre Dame cannot win a conference championship, but their schedule allows them not to have to. A couple of “big enough” games are still ahead of them, as well.
• Michigan State – Right now, they’re a little on the outside looking in, but defeating Ohio State in two weeks will put them squarely into the mix. After that, the path smooths out and even the B1G Championship will be very gettable.
• Georgia – If there’s any team that has been overlooked this year, it might be Georgia. With one more big game against Auburn coming up and a potential trip to the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs are far from dead this season.

The biggest question out of this tier will be what happens in the SEC West. There’s a scenario where Ole Miss beats Alabama who beats Mississippi State who beats Ole Miss. I don’t even know who wins the division at that point, let alone gets into the playoffs. Or how about Auburn beats Ole Miss who beats Mississippi State who already beat Auburn? Could there be a four-way tie? Only time will tell and it’ll be huge for the outside one-loss teams hoping to get a chance at the championship.

Tier Three:

• TCU/Kansas State/Baylor – These teams must win out. The Big 12 just isn’t strong enough right now to guarantee a one-loss champion getting into the playoffs. Kansas State may have the best chance as they close the season with games against not only TCU and Baylor but also West Virginia. Running that table would go a long way to bumping their resume.
• Nebraska/Ohio State – Both of these teams will need to win the B1G championship to have a shot. That chance is greater for OSU as they have a huge game against Michigan State looming.
• Arizona State/Arizona – The loss to UCLA is killing them right now as the Bruins have dropped in the rankings. Still, with wins over USC, Stanford and a game against Notre Dame later on, it could give them a chance to steal the PAC 12 South and play Oregon as a play-in game. Arizona has a huge win against Oregon, but will have to beat ASU to get a rematch against the Ducks. It’ll be hard to beat that team twice.

It’s going to be hard for any of these teams to make the playoffs, there’s just too much up in the air at this point on their schedules. The Big 12 teams have beaten each other up just enough to knock them all out. The B1G teams need Michigan State to drop out. The Arizona teams have mediocre losses on their record already, have to play each other still, and THEN still have to likely play Oregon. Are these teams out of it? Not even close. But it’s a steep hill in front of them.

My gut tells me that if the remaining season is on short supply of surprises, the last spot will come down to Notre Dame and Michigan State. We’re going to see exactly what the committee weighs heavily and which things aren’t as important. Of all the seasons these two teams could have picked to not play each other, it looks like it happened when both teams needed the game the most. One could be a conference champion whose only loss is on the road to a top five team. One could be a cross-country conqueror whose only loss is on the road to a top five team.

It’s hard to compare Notre Dame to other teams around the country. There’s no conference championship to play for, which could end up being the death blow to a 2014 championship run. While Notre Dame sits at 11-1 after a win on the road to USC, the other teams will all be playing nationally televised all-or-nothing games. Will it be Georgia versus Mississippi State? Whoever is in this game, the winner is in. Florida State will likely win the ACC with an unblemished record. They’re in.

That leaves two spots. There is a strong chance that two SEC teams finishes the season at 11-1 and DOESN’T make the championship game, despite having defeated at least one of the teams in that game. How can you punish a team from the SEC West with an 11-1 record? You can’t. They’re in, too.

That leaves one final spot.

Notre Dame. Michigan State. Oregon.

Who gets in? Does the head-to-head victory for Oregon over Michigan State knock out the Spartans? Oregon and Michigan State will likely both win conferences, does that end the season for the Irish? Notre Dame will have played the hardest schedule. Does that cook the Ducks?

Even more importantly, will any of that even matter?

If college football has taught us anything, it’s that there will always be more surprises. We know there will be teams in the top ten that will receive their first or second loss this season. That’s a guarantee. But we also know that a couple more will likely be upset. Who takes that fall? Will Notre Dame lose to Arizona State? Does Oregon stumble against Stanford? Does Kentucky surprise a big name? Does LSU? Can Michigan ruin the Spartans season?

Anything can and will happen in the NCAA. We’ve already had a week where five top ten teams lost. If only one top ten team loses a week from now until December, we will have a drastically different idea of what a playoff team might look like. The key? Don’t be one of those teams that lose. If Notre Dame can avoid that fate, they’ll be getting good news about January.

The post Notre Dame Still Squarely in Playoff Picture appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Fumbles

Everett Golson, 1st Quarter
Everett Golson, 3rd Quarter

Everett’s first fumble to start the game, while terrible and costly, could be mostly forgiven. You could certainly argue that Golson should have better pocket presence and not step directly into a death trap. Still, that was not nearly as bad as Golson coughing the ball up late in the 3rd quarter for a failure to tuck and protect the ball.

NBC mentioned that Golson worked on ball security, but perhaps it should shift to learning when to slide? I’d rather Golson sacrifice a couple of yards than trying to plunge forward and watching an opponent grab the ball. Plus, I’m not too particularly fond of Golson taking a whole bunch of hits every game.

Either way, this needs to be fixed and quickly. That’s three games in a row and I’m starting to become very concerned.

Ill-Advised Passes

Golson near pick six, 2nd Drive
Golson throws a pick six, 3rd Drive

Simply put, Golson was lucky that he didn’t give up two pick sixes in this game. His first ill-advised pass was jumped and, had it not been an absolute bullet that the Tar Heel DB failed to handle, it probably would’ve been. On both that pass and the pick six, Golson forced a pass to a receiver that clearly wasn’t open.

It’s almost as if Golson believes that his arm is strong enough to beat the defender that is taking the route away. Or perhaps Golson just can’t help but try to force things so early in a game.

Either way, those were two very easy reads that I think everyone, Brian Kelly included, expects Golson to make.

Plays You May Have Forgotten

Sheldon Day nearly gets an INT, 1st Quarter
Notre Dame nearly has a goal line stand, 2nd Quarter

Sure, we remember that the Irish gave away loads of points off of turnovers, but these two plays could have caused a serious scoring swing. Sheldon Day made an incredible read on a screen play and completely jumped the route (and Issac Rochell should get a nod for almost getting a sack before the play could get set up). He couldn’t have been in better position as he did everything right but catch the ball.

Near the end of the first half, North Carolina scored another touchdown, but that was practically a gift from the ACC referees. On 3rd and goal, the Irish were flagged for defensive pass interference on a clearly uncatchable ball. The Irish forced the Tar Heels to another 3rd and goal. Rochell had Marquis Williams dead to rights on his scramble for a TD, but just happened to roll over Rochell perfectly on his way down toward the endzone and away from Max Redfield who was charging in for the finishing touch.

Had those plays gone a different way, we could very well be talking about a very different score this week.

Schools from Mississippi

If you had told me in the preseaon that the top five would include both Mississippi schools, I would have thought you crazy. Yet, here we are.

Mississippi State dispatched a turnover-prone Auburn and leapfrogged Florida State to take the #1 spot in both polls. After a huge upset against Alabama, Ole Miss followed up by soundly defeating Texas A&M at home.

I can’t help but wonder how this will affect the SEC Is Awesome Theory this week.

Texas Heart-breakers

Oklahoma fends off a Texas comeback to win 31-26
TCU blows a 21 point lead to Baylor, losing 58-61

The Red River Rivalry, no matter how lopsided it may have seemed on paper the past two years, managed to be fantastic once again. Texas came on late to give a reeling Oklahoma a scare in the old Cotton Bowl. TCU, who beat Oklahoma last week in Ft. Worth, traveled down to Waco and appeared to have Baylor dead to rights.

TCU’s only problem was that Baylor remembered that they can score points by the boat load and delivered one of the most incredible comeback wins that I’ve ever seen.

Later that evening, I was out and about in downtown Ft. Worth. Usually, you will see quite a few TCU kids enjoying a night out, having a blast around Sundance Square. I saw none that evening and a bartender told the couple we were meeting up with to avoid one particular bar because it was full of sad, angry, and drunk TCU fans. Yikes.

Polling Absurdities

Michigan State
Oklahoma

In both the coaches’ and AP polls, Michigan State is ranked above Oregon and Oklahoma is ranked above TCU. Both teams lost to the teams they now find themselves ranked above despite the fact that they all have one loss. I am trying to figure out what kind of logic multiple people used to justify such a ranking.

Seriously, the polls are so useless right now. What a joke. I’m almost surprised that a one-loss Alabama team isn’t ranked above Notre Dame.

The post CFB Week 7: A Tale of Two… appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Golson to Brown
Golson to Koyack

It only took two TDs for Notre Dame to top Stanford. Brown’s TD allowed us all to breathe going into the half and Koyack’s catch, on a 4th and 11 no less, sent us into jubilation.

Turnovers

Golson’s Fumble
Golson’s INT

Golson struggled once again in protecting that ball. The fumble was once again a result of him holding the ball waaaaaay too far out from his body. The INT was a result of Golson trying to force a play that wasn’t there.

The good news? Golson learned his lesson, at least with fumbling, on his 33-yard run:

Screencap via @SupermanTDJesus

There was no way in hell he was going to lose the ball again. Thank you, Golson.

Botched Holds

Hunter Smith on FG Attempt #1
Hunter Smith on FG Attempt #2

I have never written about #99 here at HLS and I never should when your one job is to hold the football for Brindza. You could almost excuse the first botch as the ran was coming down pretty hard. The second one though? In his own head.

Thankfully, Hunter discovered the wonder of gloves, incredible devices that help you catch and hold a ball, and allowed Brindza to get to attempt one FG without craziness. Third time’s a charm!

Instances of Shaw whining like a baby.

2012: The Phantom Whistle
2014: The Band Playing Music

We all thought there was no way Shaw could ever top complaining about his whole team hearing a whistle that didn’t exist, but lo and behold, he got into the ears of the (terrible) Pac 12 ref crew. His issue was that the band played a little bit too long, so ND got a warning and Stanford basically got a free timeout.

Much like his phantom whistle complaint, the band issue accomplished nothing but allowing us to hate the guy more. Also, the band got the last laugh:

Via SBNation with a h/t to our friends at One Foot Down

THE DRUM MAJOR HAS BETTER HANDS THAN TY MONTGOMERY!

Gigantic Upsets

Arizona def #2 Oregon 31-24
#11 Ole Miss def #3 Alabama 23-17

We should have known this entire week of college football was going to be insane when Oregon fell to Arizona on Thursday night. There were certainly more upsets than the ones listed above (#4 OU, #6 Texas A&M, #8 UCLA,#16 USC, #17 Wisconsin, and #18 BYU), but Oregon and Alabama were by far the biggest shocks of the week.

If you had an undefeated record, you were in serious danger. Florida State had to be thanking their lucky stars they were playing Wake Forest. Somehow, Notre Dame joined the Seminoles in the select group of six undefeated teams still standing.

The lesson learned here? If Katy Perry picks against you, be afraid. BE VERY AFRAID:

/dead pic.twitter.com/pzaIz9cAVw

— Isaac (@WorldofIsaac) October 4, 2014

Rival Losses

Rutgers def Michigan 26-24
Arizona State def #16 Southern Cal 38-34

Michigan continued their downward spiral by failing to beat yet another Power 5 opponent. This time, it was well-established B1G powerhouse newcomer Rutgers. I’m sure when Michigan saw that they would welcome Rutgers and Maryland to the B1G, they weren’t aware that they’d be the welcome mat.

Southern Cal, however, probably had the more satisfying upset because, let’s be honest, we don’t expect Michigan to win anymore at this point. The Trojans came into this game without giving up a single passing TD. They surrendered 5 in this game with the final one occurring because of the worst Hail Mary defense that I have ever seen.

Via @cjzero

Thumbs on a Happy Guy

#DORK pic.twitter.com/coFPPMPk09

— HLS_SupermanTDJesus (@SupermanTDJesus) October 4, 2014

The post CFB Week 6: A Tale of Two… appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Debates centering around change at Notre Dame infuriate me. Part of it has to do with my steadfast belief that Notre Dame doesn’t receive the benefit of the doubt that they can do change well. That doesn’t mean that I believe ND is perfect because, let’s be honest, to crawl out of the abyss that life after Lou Holtz brought, ND has changed presidents once, athletic directors twice, and Kelly is the fifth head coach hired since Lou (because yes, George O’Leary happened). So while I can understand concern in the change debate, I’ve found it hard to reconcile some of the slippery slope arguments that I’ve seen.

And then a look at Michigan. This has to be the nightmare scenario for the status quo crowd.

Dave Brandon appears completely tone-deaf to the fans and alumni of Michigan. Cries of Michigan football creating too much of a corporate, money-making atmosphere matter not to him. Alumni have been angry about this new direction and students have been upset with changes to their seating policy as well as prices for tickets increasing in the face of terrible Michigan seasons and equally poor home schedules. Even Notre Dame fans have reported that the game atmosphere in the Big House now is horrendous in comparison to previous years.

The entire Shane Morris debacle served as the last straw for many Michigan fans. The circus Michigan threw together in trying to handle the PR disaster only made matters worse. A random post on MGoBlog called for a student rally to call for Brandon’s head. The folks behind the site were more than happy to promote and encourage the idea in hopes to kick Michigan into action.

The fallout, however, hasn’t gone in the direction any Michigan fan had hoped. The rich folks (aka the real power) seem to be circling the wagons in defense of Brandon. Brandon went to the media in private interviews, starting first with the student newspaper, and absolved embattled head coach Brady Hoke of all blame for putting Morris in danger. The entire medical staff at Michigan found themselves thrown under a bus and now Brandon will implement a new policy to have a “medical replay official” in the press box to prevent the situation from happening again.

Brandon acts as if he knows he’s bulletproof. I’m certain Hoke will still find himself fired upon the end of the season, but it will be for wins and losses and nothing more in Brandon’s mind. Brandon will then make another (likely sub-par) hire much to our delight as Irish fans because Michigan appears more concerned with a bottom line on a balance sheet.

Perhaps eventually the cries will become too much and Brandon is let go. The aforementioned MGoBlog is most certainly trying their damnedest to stoke that fire. Another post on their board posted a screen shot of a rather curt email from the hated AD. The problem though is that the original email that caused it hasn’t been released. However, later in that thread (yes, I read the whole thing), Brian Cook, the Michigan man behind the site, stated that based on previous emails from Brandon sent to him, he believed that this was worth filing a FOIA request over.

That’s the point Michigan fans are now at: FOIA requests for emails to prove their AD is a dick because they don’t feel Michigan will can him. And, for them, this all started with a few changes away from the tradition that they felt was Michigan.

Could you imagine Notre Dame in this same scenario? I still don’t personally believe Notre Dame would ever come close to that road, but I also imagine Michigan will be exhibit A for reasons to be concerned about proposed changes.

So thanks Michigan, you have now managed to throw so much jet fuel on to your tire fire that it’ll likely spread to ND debates in the future. You can’t even fail properly. I know I’m laughing right now (with the exception of the Morris situation because I’m not that evil), but I can see this causing headaches in a future debate. Thanks, jerks.

The Roundup

Michigan has clearly made bad decisions. But it’s okay, we all have.

And in the file of terrible ADs: Steve Patterson. In last week’s Roundup, I spoke out his rocky relationship with Notre Dame, but now he looks ready to piss off every taxpayer in Austin.

Roll Teenage Witch. Melissa Joan Hart, this is creepy.

Ole Miss is definitely rising in the SEC. Congrats the full-fledged NCAA investigation! S-E-C! S-E-C!

This is sad week for basketball fans everywhere. Red Panda has hung up her unicycle. The bowls are now back in the cupboard. Halftime shows will never be the same.

BAH GAWD, KING, THAT’S WEST VIRGINIA’S MUSIC! I have no idea what prompted them to stage WWE matches in their locker room, but it’s hilarious.

Take a virtual tour of Brian Kelly’s office. Seriously, this is a really cool photo gallery that ESPN put together.

Is Schmidt going to get a movie? I definitely have to agree that he is certainly finding more success than another well-known ND walk-on.

Another week in the academic investigation, another week of no news. KeiVarae Russel voiced his displeasure on Instagram and the Observer has called for more transparency in what has been an incredibly long process.

And now your moment of Nix…

https://twitter.com/oaknd1/status/517687036338507777

The Booze

In honor of Stanford week, I present to you the Irish Lumberjack, a twist on the Irish Coffee concept:

Ingredients:

• 2 oz Bailey’s
• 1 oz Irish Whiskey
• 1/5 tsp Cinnamon
• 2-3 oz espresso
• Half and Half
• Milk

Pour Bailey’s and the Irish Whiskey and the brewed espresso into a coffee cup. Add in the half and half until the cup is 3/4 full. Steam/froth the milk and top off the cup. Garnish with the cinnamon.

Now, for those of us that don’t have the fancy coffee equipment (/raises hand), go to your favorite coffee stop (even McDonalds will work because it’s the booze that’s important) and order a café latte and spike the sucker with the booze, topping it off with cinnamon.

Granted, this isn’t a drink that you’re going to consume all game. So once you have this in your system as a kick-starter, if you want to continue the lumberjack theme you can brave maple flavored whiskey. Personally, I find that too sweet for my taste, so after I make my tree joke via beverage, I’m going for the Oktoberfest brews before ALL PUMPKIN EVERYTHING kicks in full-force.

The post Friday Roundup: The “Sum of All Fears” Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.