You can jump over to ESPN for a quick primer on SP+ but it’s a method to quantify team and unit efficiency. I decided to compare the relative strengths of each unit as they’ll appear on the field, so looking at Southern Cal’s offensive ranking compared to the Notre Dame defensive ranking (and so on).

The first quick note: there are four teams ranked in the top-30 for offense, defense, and special teams in 2019–they are LSU, Georgia, Auburn….and Notre Dame. Without further ado:

ND Offense vs. SC Defense

First, some good news: when Notre Dame’s 18th-ranked offense is on the field, they should have a substantial advantage over the 51st-best Trojan defense. The Irish run blocking scheme has proven frustrating against top-tier defenses, but there are sufficient weapons on the ground and through the air to leverage this advantage

SC Offense vs. ND Defense

Despite Clay Helton’s ever-warm coaching seat, SC manages to bring in top-shelf offensive production (19th-best SP+) at the skill positions. Their experience and depth should get tested in this game, and the Irish will need to utilize their various weapons on their 27th-ranked defense to create backfield pressure and neutralize the long-ball threat.

Special Teams

Irish fans perpetually hope the game doesn’t rest on special teams (ND: 26th, SC: 35th), although the home team enjoys a slight edge here as well. Long returns or a botched punt attempt could swing momentum in this contest.

Overall

Notre Dame is currently ranked 13th in SP+, while USC sits at 29. The Irish haven’t looked dominant against good competition, but have consistently covered the point spread despite failing to sneak out of Athens with a victory. Southern Cal, on the other hand, has fallen victim to inexperience and uneven play against decent-to-good teams, and both Trojan losses (Washington and BYU) are statistically inferior to the 2019 Irish. Let’s hope Irish eyes are smiling come Saturday night.

The post Breaking Down Advanced Statistics Ahead of ND-USC appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Who To Watch

Michigan (3-1) vs Iowa (4-0), Sat 12:00PM ET on Fox

via GIPHY

Well here’s a fun one: Michigan gets their requisite three points as the host in this game, but there’s an undefeated Iowa coming to town so this could be fun. The Hawkeye defense looks statistically pretty good this season, so we’ll see whether Shea Patterson and the lumbering Wolverine offense can make some headway. If not, then the Irish should have a pretty good blueprint (see what I did there?) for the upcoming trip to Ann Arbor.

Other Upcoming Opponents

• Boston College (3-2) at Louisville (2-2) (Sat 12:30PM ET, ACC Network)
• Virginia Tech (2-2) at Miami (Sat 3:30PM ET, ESPN)
• Navy (2-1) vs Air Force (Sat 3:30PM ET, CBS Sports Network)
• Duke (3-1) vs Pittsburgh (Sat 8:00PM ET, ACC Network)
• Stanford (2-3) vs Washington (Sat 10:30PM ET, ESPN)

Past Opponents

• New Mexico (2-2) at San Jose State (Fri 10:00PM ET, CBS Sports Network)
• Georgia (4-0) at Tennessee (Sat 7:00PM ET, ESPN)

Schedule Strength

Last week, Notre Dame’s 2019 opponents went 3-6. On the year, Irish opponents are 31-20 (61% win rate) with an average schedule strength of 82.

Rank	Team	Record	Change
1	Stanford	2-3	↑ 1
10	Southern Cal	3-2	↑ 12
18	Notre Dame	3-1	↑ 7
53	Virginia	4-1	↑ 52
62	Louisville	2-2	↑ 2
70	Georgia	4-0	↓ 5
78	Duke	3-1	↑ 20
97	Michigan	3-1	↓ 52
108	Bowling Green	1-3	↑ 3
111	Virginia Tech	2-2	↑ 18
123	New Mexico	2-2	↑ 2
125	Boston College	3-2	↓ 3
146	Navy	2-1	↑ 57