Brian Kelly is, by my amateur analysis, the worst coach Notre Dame has ever allowed to oversee its football team for at least 65 games.

It’s completely unfair to compare coaches from different eras because of the college game has evolved in the past 80 seasons. There’s also several issues that are beyond the head coaches’ control: academic issues, injuries and transfers to name a few.

However, I’m going to do it to provide an additional perspective on Brian Kelly’s tenure (Bayou Irish kicked off the discussion Wednesday) and because I believe fans do this sort of “apples-to-waffles” comparison anyway.

I’ll be comparing Kelly, Dan Devine, Lou Holtz, Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian and Knute Rockne through their first 65 games in a multitude of categories. Kelly, as I’ll prove, consistently fares poorly in a comparison to these legendary coaches.

JUST WIN, BABY

Fans and alums want nothing more than for their football team to win.

While Brian Kelly was 3 wins off Lou Holtz’s pace before the 2014 season started, he finished 5 behind after posting an 8-5

Picture courtesy of Robert Pernett (via Flickr)

record. I’m skeptical that Kelly can ever overtake Holtz. Lou went 9-3-1 in games #66-78 – which would be the equivalent of a 12-game regular season and a bowl game in the upcoming season for Kelly. Then Holtz won his next 17 in a row before the team lost to Boston College in 1993.

TOUGHER SCHEDULE

For all the talk about Notre Dame being “too chicken” to play Michigan or other opponents perceived as “tough,” Kelly has faced the second-hardest schedule among his predecessors through 65 games.

Ara Parseghian’s 52-9-4 record is certainly commendable, but its impressiveness is surely dulled by the fact that he was beating a lot of bad teams.

BIG GAME BRIAN? NOT QUITE.

There is perhaps no bigger obsession for fans than analyzing Notre Dame’s place in the standings. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Knute Rockne falls to the bottom of this list because AP rankings didn’t exist when he was coach.

Kelly is 9-9 against ranked opponents and 5-7 (.417) when Notre Dame and its opponent are both in the AP’s top 25.

DAVID VS. GOLIATH

My experience with Notre Dame fans is that they never like losses. But, if the team has to lose, it better be against a good team. Simply put, our team should make easy work of inferior opponents. And when that doesn’t happen: That’s when they want to put the coach on the hot seat.

Brian Kelly’s 17-3 record when his team is ranked and his opponent is unranked would be commendable, if not for the fact that the fan base tends to remember those three losses vividly (South Florida in 2011, Pittsburgh in 2013 and, of course, Northwestern last year).

Kelly is 18-8 (.692) when both his team and his opponent are unranked at game time, which is also last among the six coaches we’re examining.

BAD LOSSES

Ugh. There is simply no excuse to lose to a team than cannot finish its season with a winning record. Notre Dame has several advantages in recruiting, training and coaching. It simply should not be outclassed by a terrible opponent on Saturday.

Ara Parseghian was a perfect 35-0 against teams that ended their season with a losing record through his first 65 games as coach. Frank Leahy was 28-0 and Rockne was 18-0-1. Kelly ranks last, with a 17-2 (.895) record. Those “bad losses” were to two teams that would finish their seasons 5-7: South Florida in 2011 and Northwestern last year.

PROTECT THIS HOUSE

A win at Notre Dame Stadium is a perfect capper to a great fall weekend in South Bend. The thinking goes: No one should come to our house and push us around.

Kelly is 23-8 at Notre Dame Stadium, which almost exactly mirrors Dan Devine’s home record through 65 games. It still puts him last on this list.

ON THE ROAD AGAIN

Photo courtesy of OSU Special Collections & Archives (via Flickr)

It’s admittedly also satisfying to steal a win in someone else’s place, although my experience with the fan base is that they tend to value home wins more. Kelly’s 11-9 record in games played at the opponent’s home stadium is not very impressive. (He’s 11-3 in games played at neutral sites.)

STOMP ON THEIR THROATS

I’ve been a fan of Notre Dame football for more than 25 years now. I can’t recall many instances where Notre Dame just absolutely blew the doors off an opponent. I can recall many instances where we as fans pleaded with Notre Dame to curb-stomp a team. It just doesn’t happen a lot. Here’s the scoring differential in each coaches’ first 65 games.

Ara Parseghian was whooping on opponents. Knute Rockne was annihilating opponents. Frank Leahy was destroying opponents. Brian Kelly? At a touchdown differential per game, his teams are just not running away from people. (I recognize this is an imperfect stat to draw the conclusion I’m making, but the data backs it up.)

IT’S STILL A SUCCESSFUL SEASON IF WE BEAT USC

Beating a historical rival is a feel-good elixir for many of us. I studied six historical opponents – most are considered rivals; a few are not.

Here’s how each coach is doing through 65 games, with the caveat that our coach has no control over the ultimate successes or failures of other institutions during certain eras:

vs. USC

• Lou Holtz: 5-0-0 (1.000)
• Frank Leahy: 4-0-1 (.900)
• Brian Kelly: 3-2-0 (.600)
• Ara Parseghian: 2-2-2 (.500)
• Dan Devine: 1-4-0 (.200)
• Knute Rockne: n/a

vs. MICHIGAN

• Lou Holtz: 4-2-0 (.667)
• Dan Devine: 2-1-0 (.667)
• Frank Leahy: 1-1-0 (.500)
• Brian Kelly: 2-3-0 (.400)
• Ara Parseghian & Knute Rockne: n/a

vs. MICHIGAN ST.

• Frank Leahy: 2-0-0 (1.000)
• Lou Holtz: 5-1-0 (.833)
• Dan Devine: 5-1-0 (.833)
• Brian Kelly: 3-1-0 (.750)
• Knute Rockne: 3-1-0 (.750)
• Ara Parseghian: 4-2-1 (.643)

vs. NAVY

• Lou Holtz: 5-0-0 (1.000)
• Frank Leahy: 7-0-0 (1.000)
• Ara Parseghian: 6-0-0 (1.000)
• Dan Devine: 6-0-0 (1.000)
• Brian Kelly: 4-1-0 (.800)
• Knute Rockne: n/a

vs. PURDUE

• Lou Holtz: 6-0-0 (1.000)
• Frank Leahy: 4-0-0 (1.000)
• Brian Kelly: 5-0-0 (1.000)
• Ara Parseghian: 3-4-0 (.429)
• Dan Devine: 5-1-0 (.833)
• Knute Rockne: 6-0-0 (1.000)

vs. STANFORD

• Frank Leahy: 1-0-0 (1.000)
• Ara Parseghian: 1-0-0 (1.000)
• Knute Rockne: 1-0-0 (1.000)
• Lou Holtz: 3-1-0 (.750)
• Brian Kelly: 2-3-0 (.400)
• Dan Devine: n/a

CONCLUSIONS

I’ve acknowledged that this sort of comparison is greatly flawed because of the evolution of college football. However, I went forward and compared these coaches in 83 statistical categories. I assigned 1 point to the coach who had the most wins, least losses, most ties, best win percentage and so on. The coach in last place in these categories received six points. Like golf, the lower the score, the better. Here are the final results:

1. Frank Leahy: 172 points
2. Knute Rockne: 211 points, 39 behind leader
3. Ara Parseghian: 228 points, 56 behind leader
4. Dan Devine: 259 points, 87 behind leader
   4(t). Lou Holtz: 259 points, 87 behind leader
   6. Brian Kelly: 329 points, 157 behind leader

By the metrics I selected, Brian Kelly is least successful coach who has been employed for 65 games or more. My findings should not be construed as advocating for Kelly’s firing. (I personally believe the opposite; I really like Brian Kelly.) Instead, the only conclusion I can safely make is: They’re not putting a statue of Brian Kelly outside Notre Dame Stadium when he retires.

I’d imagine Brian Kelly is perfectly content with being a good, but not legendary, Notre Dame coach.

LOOKING FORWARD

If Notre Dame is successful in 2015, they’ll be invited to a bowl game, which would be their 13^th contest. Here’s how each of Kelly’s five peers did in games #66-#78.

• Knute Rockne: Rock starts the 1925 season with wins over Baylor, Lombard and Beloit, before a decisive loss to Army in Yankee Stadium. He’ll finish 1925 at 7-2-1. His first three games of the 1926 season are all wins, bringing his record in this 13-game period to 10-2-1.
• Frank Leahy: Leahy’s team is #1 by game #66, which occurs during the last half of the 1949 season. He beats Iowa and USC at home and SMU on the road. His team is again ranked #1 heading into the 1950 season, but falls to Purdue in its second game. By the end of a disappointing 4-4-1 season, the Fighting Irish are unranked. Leahy’s squad, ranked #14 in the pre-season of 1951, wins its home opener against Indiana. His record in this 13-game stretch is 8-4-1.
• Ara Parseghian: Ara’s 66^th game as head coach pits the #3 Fighting Irish against #18 Missouri. It’s a decisive three-touchdown win on the road, followed by wins against Navy (in Philadelphia), Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech and LSU. An end-of-season loss to unranked USC spoils a perfect season, but the #6 ranked Irish beat top ranked Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Ara opens the 1971 season with a #2 ranking and five straight wins, but drops the sixth game to an unranked USC team (again!). His record during this 13-game period is 11-2-0.
• Dan Devine: It’s the end of the road for Devine, who will coach just 5 more games in his Notre Dame career. He finishes with a 2-2-1 record, including wins over Alabama and Air Force and losses to USC and a Herschel Walker-led Georgia team in the 1981 Sugar Bowl.
• Lou Holtz: As previously mentioned, Lou compiles a 9-3-1 record during his 13-game stretch that starts in mid-1991 with wins against #12 Pittsburgh, Air Force, USC, Navy, Hawaii and #3 Florida in the Sugar Bowl. His #3 ranked Irish tie #6 Michigan the following year and lose to #18 Stanford at home.

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andrewwinn

Assistant Editor
Notre Dame graduate, class of '02 (the Davie years!). A former newspaper and TV reporter, andrewwinn is now professionally involved in something far less fun to discuss than college football. A dad, a husband and a wannabe data nerd.





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