The offense fell basically as predicted on Tuesday. The two-deep for the defense also fell with few surprises. Perhaps not a surprise but a definite endorsement for Shaun Crawford that he’s listed as a starter at corner. I had not separated out the corners on my depth chart and instead listed them based on my “confidence” in them hitting the field. I had Crawford at #2 behind Pride. Not only because Crawford’s just awesome but the fall camp reports have suggested him floating around at corner, nickel, and safety. In general, the defense seems poised to go very deep this year.

No need to belabor things, let’s get to the players.

Defensive End

Good lord is this position loaded. In 2016, Nyles Morgan led the Irish with 4 sacks. Jarron Jones’ 2 sacks was the most by a lineman, and things seemed remarkably bleak. Two seasons later, the Irish boast one of the most talented and deepest groups in the country. The rotation starts at being six deep, and that’s before considering a couple of true freshmen.

#42 Julian Okwara – Okwara unsurprisingly finished as the top player based on the collective pre-season wisdom of the nerds who vote on such things. He’s on every watch list you’d prefer your best player to be on. He’s apparently added a little more weight and was viewed as “unstoppable” at times during fall practice. I choose to take that that Julian’s more God than mortal rather than a worry sign for the play of ND’s tackles.

#53 Khalid Kareem – Were I to do one of those “Bold Predictions” articles, my most Lays with Ruffles (BOLD!) prediction would be that Kareem ends up with the better season than Okwara. Kareem finished third on the team in sacks (4.5…which would’ve LED the team in 2016), but consider this disruptive fact: Kareem had the same number of pass break ups as Alohi Gilman (5) which was one more than Drue Tranquill’s 4. I am already salivating about the 3rd and long game the team could play by lining up Okwara, Kareem, and….

#9 Daelin Hayes – While not quite the year of Tillery, Okwara, or Kareem, Hayes is still an extraordinarily talented end. Honestly, I still think his Batman announcement thing was kinda cool too.

#91 Ade Ogundeji (O-gun-day-gee) – For many teams, he would be a starter that folks would be happy about. 1.5 sacks and 3 TFL last season got lost in last year’s stat lines, but for a rotational player that was fine. He’ll finally get an opportunity to make a larger impact this campaign. Tillery was extremely disruptive on the interior last year, and there is a big void to fill from a pressure and plays perspective. Lea’s job should focus on finding different combinations of these ends to deploy in creative ways. There’s no Tillery this year, but there’s plenty to work with.

#19 Justin Ademilola – Ademilola played in just 4 games last year meaning the sophomore still retains 4 years of eligibility entering the season. Can we agree that he gets 20ish tackles, 3 sacks, and learns some neat tricks from the top 4?

#44 Jamir Jones – The converted linebacker is still best known for shaming mortal men with his pregame blazer and no shirt attire. From a rotational standpoint, it’s tough to see where he’ll find a lot of snaps except in blowouts or perhaps on special teams? There was some speculation over the summer he might even be redshirted to retain a season of eligibility as a 5th year. The ladies of ND nod approvingly.

#94 Isaiah Foskey – Foskey made a large enough impact during the summer and fall practices to gain some reps versus the first and second team players. He seems like an obvious candidate to be used sparingly to get him 4 games without losing a year of eligibility, which will probably be similar for….

#18 NaNa Ossafo-Mensah – We’re seriously on defensive ends still. I find this enjoyable. Re-read the Foskey description and get a sip of water.

Defensive Tackle

No Tillery and no James Bonner. No problem. As mentioned above, there’s no obvious Tillery on the roster, but the two guys most likely to help fill his void are:

#95 Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa – A broken foot cost MTA most of last year. It’s unfair to compare him directly to the man he’s being asked to help replace, but given the end depth mentioned above, he does not need to be. The larger goal is to keep everyone fresh. Which means a heavy rotation with…

#57 Jayson Ademilola – If we just made each lineman responsible for sacks commensurate with the number of syllables in their last name, the team would be record-breaking.

#41 Kurt Hinish – Hinish is the direct Bonner replacement in terms of position but not style. Bonner had one task and that was take up space and blockers to let the others do their thing. This year’s team will certainly want Hinish to do some of that, but he’s a far more athletic and versatile nose and in the absence of a dominant interior presence, I anticipate them doing more things with Hinish.

#54 Jacob Lacey – Lacey is a freshman. He’s also a man. Take it away Tyler James

He’ll play, and in the next year or two, he will be a cult hero.

#55 Ja’Mion Franklin – Just shy of 6’2″ but over 300 lbs, Franklin provides the type of prototypical girth you like in a nose. Coming off a serious leg injury made the Lacey time share an easy one.

Linebacker

I’m not even sure how to approach these positions. There is one obvious and clear starter at Rover. Everything else seems to be very fluid. So, let’s take these in loose position groupings.

Buck (Weak-Side)

#22 Asmar Bilal

#2 Jordan Genmark Heath

#31 Jack Lamb

Bilal is the ostensible starter, in a situation where down and distance seems like it will play a very big role. At the beginning of camp, Bilal was playing Mike with Jack Lamb moving up to the starter spot. By the end, Bilal appeared to establish himself as the starter here with the Week 1 depth chart confirming as such.

Bilal’s in perhaps the toughest position on the roster. As the 5th year in a position of uncertainty, he seems like the guy many would prefer take a leadership role, but the team cannot even decide where best to play him. Reports suggest that in passing/nickel situations, we should expect to see more of Lamb as the superior cover guy.

Genmark Heath has less certainty about exactly when we might see him play, but there’s reason to assume he’ll be incorporated fairly routinely in the early rotation until the defense lands on something they are more comfortable with.

Mike

#40 Drew White

#33 Shayne Simon

#52 Bo Bauer

White gives off some not overly re-assuring Joe Schmidt vibes. The way the staff talks about White, he seems to be the guy who “gets” what they’re trying to do. If he was surrounded by Jaylon Smith or Nyles Morgan, or Drue Tranquill, I’d be fine with that. I’m less comfortable given the other uncertainties. When the 2-deep was initially released today, Shayne Simon’s name was missing. Twitter picked up on this and panicked until the information staff quickly released a new one with Simon as the back-up. Simon’s the superior athlete but has yet to separate in terms of scheme knowledge. I keep hoping that might be corrected.

Rover

#30 Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah (“Wu”) – I wanted him to be JOK, but I lost that battle. The team, coaches, and Wu have spoken. Aside from some guy named Hamilton and perhaps Keys, no one did more in the lead up to week 1 to improve his stock than Wu. By now you’ve probably heard – Wu was basically recruited to play this exact position. Injury in September last year caused the Irish to re-adjust plans. Season lead up provided glimpses of an uber athletic guy who’s competent enough in pass coverage to provide additional flexibility in games where the team faces a no huddle offense.

I am running his fan club, and y’all can’t stop me.

#13 Paul Moala

#24 Jack Kiser

Ideally, we see these guys making special teams tackles and that’s about it.

Cornerback

This is a bit like the linebacker group but with a lot more talent. What we know:

#5 Troy Pride – Is the man. Sure, we ALL would have loved to love Pride playing with Love while the score was 40 – Love, but we’ve been scorned. Instead, we’re left with an outstanding corner who is expected to be the primary boundary corner. One thing I’ll be interested to watch is whether he simply stays on the boundary side or whether they flip him to remain with a team’s best receiver in larger games. In the meantime, there’s this:

#20 Shaun Crawford – He will be on the field. Let me repeat that. HE WILL BE ON THE FIELD. And, really, that’s all we need. Please stay healthy, my man.

Okay. That’s what we know. The other 4 corners likely to play, in some combination, based on who’s healthy, etc….

#28 TaRiq Bracy

#3 Houston Griffith

#8 Donte Vaughn

#4 Avery Davis

It felt as if Davis fell behind the other three as practices progressed. Griffith and Vaughn both come with some lingering injury questions. But your guess is as good as mind about how the snaps wind up at the end of the day. Griffith still feels like an obvious contender to move to safety to pair with Hamilton come next year.

Safety

Two more Top 10ish roster players for 2019 along with ND’s most eligible freshman make this situation feel calm, reliable, and tested. Add in a number of snaps for Crawford back here and you have the position I feel most comfortable with on the entire roster.

#11 Alohi Gilman – If he plays how we want him to, he won’t be back for his final year of eligibility, probably. So, enjoy it folks.

#21 Jalen Elliott – A near perfect centerfielder. Elliott led the team in 2018 in interceptions and had more pass break-ups than Gilman. No, he’s not the run supporter of Gilman and isn’t asked to be. If things are going well, he’ll be the team leader in interceptions again.

#14 Kyle Hamilton – He hasn’t played a game yet. No, YOU have a custom ordered Fathead of him on YOUR wall.

#12 DJ Brown – This should probably be Derrik Allen, but it’s not.

Alright, we’re creeping towards 1800 words. Is is game day yet???

The post Who the _______ am I Watching? ND’s Depth Chart (Literally) by the Numbers (Part II) appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

No need for fancy introductions. Here’s your guide for the players you’ll most likely see on Labor Day playing against L’ville.

Quarterback

#12 Ian Book – He’s good. Use the words I’m saving you from reading to think of new puns. Book’s a senior. The pun in your head has already been used.

#15 Phil Jurkovec – I am nothing, if not an optimist. Therefore, I’m including Phil assuming the Irish will get up by enough to get him some 4th quarter snaps. As many have alluded to, there’s likely to be a time this year that Jurkovec is needed so getting him right is more important than we might wish to believe. Similar to previous ND QB’s, the culprit assigned for many of his issues is being described as “a matter of confidence.” With that in mind, is there a way for Phil to get some reps inside the Backer at 2 AM after a few Long Islands and Bud Lights because I’ve never seen a dude lack confidence under those conditions.

Runningback

#8 Jafar Armstong and #6 Tony Jones – It seems appropriate to lump these two together since the consensus coming out of fall camp appears to be a 1a/1b situation (Coach speak for “damned if I know who’s better”). With the injuries to receiving targets (Young and Kmet) and the lack of game snaps for basically everyone aside from Claypool and Finke, there’s a good chance Chip Long will continue some of what he was doing during the summer with multiple back sets. In particular, Armstrong’s ability as a pass catcher provides the offense some extra wrinkles where he can shift between the backfield and a wideout spot as necessary.

#34 Jahmir Smith – Power option near the goal line appears to be the preferred role for Smith.

#23 Kyren Williams – Williams has some of the same flexibility that Armstrong provides. Training camp reports focused similarly on his ability as a pass catcher and ability to split out wide when needed. If he’s getting a lot of snaps, things are either going really good or the team’s already experienced another not so great injury moment.

Wide Receiver

#83 Chase Claypool – He was supposed to be slowly eased into practices after some ankle issues. Instead, he departs camp with people making Michael Floyd comparisons. I’m for it.

#10 Chris Finke – Did you know Finke is a former walk-on?

After the top two, things get far more cloudy. At some point, this’ll be #87 Michael Young‘s place, but a broken collarbone has delayed that. And while Kevin Austin was highly unlikely to play versus Louisville anyways, the now confirmed season long suspension for Possession of John U. Bacon book has ensured some new faces will get more chances to shine. Soooo……

#13 Lawrence Keys – At 5’10”, 173 lbs, Keys is still much larger than me, but from my own college recruitment, I can tell you that’s not necessarily anything to be wowed by. By contrast, Keys’ stock’s been on the rise since spring practice and with Young’s injury, Keys is the clear third choice receiver. His inclusion likely slides Finke out wide with Keys playing the slot role more often. However, it won’t surprise me to see these guys interchange with one another a good amount. If your primary attribute is shiftiness, embrace it, man.

#25 Braden Lenzy and #18 Joe Wilkins – I’m placing these guys together as they’re both sophomores with more promise than known results. Lenzy came in with more fanfare and can (hopefully) be used to stretch the field with his speed. The staff wants to get both of these guys on the field, and my guess is will have a package or two that they’re apart of.

#88 Javon McKinley – The 6’2″ senior never made the impact for the Irish some thought he might, but he’s continued to work and has received positive reviews this fall. He’s more a possession guy, but I wonder if they might try to use him around the goal line in some capacity. Given the diminutive statures of Finke, Keys, and Lenzy, perhaps he finds his reps as a poor man’s Daniel Smith. Either way, happy to see his name being mentioned in a positive light this Fall.

Tight End

#89 Brock Wright – Despite playing in 24 games over his first two years, including all 13 last year at tight end, Wright’s grand total of 2 receptions for 12 yards leaves a lot of mystery for how he can fill in during #84 Cole Kmet’s absence. Wright was also a highly regarded recruit coming out of high school but appears to be on more the Nic Weishar path than Kmet. The hope is that Kmet’s back sooner rather than later which would permit Wright to return to the second TE option where he slots in more naturally for this roster.

#24 Tommy Tremble – His name is Tommy Tremble. OF COURSE I WANT TO SEE HIM PLAY AND SMASH THINGS AND DRINK FROM THE SKULLS OF HIS ENEMIES.

Offensive Line

The starting 5 seems set:

• LT – #74 Liam Eichenberg
• LG – #69 Aaron Banks
• C – #55 Jarrett Patterson
• RG – #78 Tommy Kraemer
• RT – #72 Robert Hainsey

A lot is expected of this group primarily based on normal progression and continuity. Four of the five are returning starters with Patterson moving in the center job left vacant by Sam Mustipher’s graduation. Banks had foot surgery over the summer. Everyone, understandably, was/is concerned about how a surgically repaired foot will hold up under the weight of a 325 pound man. However, the reports are that he is not limited in any way. Despite that optimism, Banks’ position along with the other interior positions will be backed up by #57 Trevor Ruhland. The graduate student Ruhland is his own medical mystery. Some thought he might have to take a medical retirement but here he is as the primary back-up for the interior positions.

The tackles feature captain Robert Hainsey and senior Liam Eichenberg. How Hainsey and Eichenberg can perform in the team’s biggest road battles at Athens and Ann Arbor is one of the most underwritten about super big storylines of this season. There were practices out of fall camp where both had apparent struggles versus the defense’s pass rush. While no one will fault them for struggling with the likes of Okwara and Kareem, the truth remains that ND’s perceived physicality has waned in the team’s big road matches. They need these guys to take that step forward from day one this year.

The other two linemen to know right now are #75 Josh Lugg and #60 Cole Mabry. Prior to Ruhland’s status working itself out, Lugg was thought to be the primary back up at perhaps all five positions. He spent a lot of the fall camp along with Mabry (when not resting) with the second team line. Ideally, the line depth is not tested more than these 8 guys. If it is, there are other posts to be written.

Alright, make your flash cards. I’ll be back with the defense and special teams later this week.

The post Who the _______ am I Watching? ND’s Depth Chart (Literally) by the Numbers appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

1. This is easily the surest the QB situation has felt from one season to the next in the Kelly-era;
2. There were no major surprises on player departures. Sure, the Derrik Allen transfer earlier this month was not predicted, but given his inability to make the depth chart to date, it cannot be viewed as a major blow to 2019’s prospects;
3. A promising coaching staff remained intact. Retaining coordinators Chip Long and Clark Lea despite at least minor flirtations by Long elsewhere is a big win for Kelly and the program. The Elko defection after just one season hurt. It seemed like a major step for Brian Kelly to break away from long-timers that he happened to know (See: Denbrock, VanGorder, Martin…). Getting an opportunity to build with young and promising coordinators at the helm for more than a season is an important step in this process;
4. It can’t be lost that the team is building on consecutive 10-win seasons. The Irish are Top 10 in the initial polls and feel closer to the top than they do to needing a rebuild.

I’ll confess that to make football and blogging and exposing myself to the Internet for the fool I am to be fun, I have to triage my time and energy. That means that I typically don’t read a lot of football stuff between April and August. There are very bright, very dedicated people out there who do. They do a tremendous job, and I have nothing but the utmost respect for them. From Pete Sampson at The Athletic, to the ND Insider guys (Eric Hansen, Tyler James, Carter Karels), the Irish Illustrated staff, Blue Gold Illustrated, and the folks at 247 Sports just to name a few.

So, while I pay for some of these folks on a personal level, I wanted to provide those of you who are hoping to get up to speed in a hurry a method of doing so that wouldn’t cost you a penny. It’s what I’m calling “The People’s Free Guide to ND Football.” I wanted to take some of my favorite pieces from the past few months from a variety of sites/blogs that I enjoy, and compile them into a means of understanding Notre Dame’s make-up and expectations leading into the 2019 season.

I love the collegial interaction among the many ND blogs available. I love sharing ideas and inviting people to check out other’s impressive work. The People’s Guide to ND Football includes posts from NBC Sports’ Inside the Irish, 18 Stripes, Notre Dame, Our Blogger, UHND, and One Foot Down. Notably, it contains no links to HLS posts. So, we have that going for us. By no means is this meant to be an exhaustive list of everything I’ve read or found worthwhile. Rather, I tried to parse this down to the essentials.

One time in my professional career, I had to conduct a deposition on a topic I was not overly familiar with. To be fair, I did not want anything to do with this matter. Some extraneous forces required me to take it on. The day before the deposition, I called up a friend who was far more nuanced in that particular subject area. My question/request of him – Tell me the five things I need to say at this thing tomorrow to avoid seeming like an idiot.

Consider the People’s Guide to ND Football to be my advice to you on the things to read to avoid sounding like an idiot this Fall.

Full Primers

There’s a skill to writing a good primer. I thought Eric Murtaugh’s Mega-Primer was the best one I read. The 18s Preview does a great job of hitting a lot of points, mentioning a lot of the relevant names, and doing so without too much muck. Sometimes the muck is good. It can even be fun, but damn it, we’re one week out! This’ll help you get up to speed in a hurry.

Once you’ve read the 18s version, head on over to NDOB for Andrew and Alex’s back and forth. The NDOB guys always add some levity but (surprisingly?!) know their stuff too. We all have questions, but their end goal of asking the q’s that go a long way towards defining success in the soon to start campaign is spot on.

Offensive Indicators/Things to Watch

If writing is any indication, despite everyone’s fair questions about what’s going to happen with the linebackers and corners, far more electronic ink was spent penning things regarding the offense. Perhaps the questions are just too overwhelming to conceptualize? I get it. Sure, the team lost Tranquill and Coney, and yep, how the guys do that replace them will matter a lot, but so little is known about the likely replacements that it was just tough to write anything that wasn’t pure speculation. By contrast:

UHND provided an excellent reminder that there’s plenty of room for offensive improvement from last year, despite the obvious departures, simply resulting from a little continuity.

NDOB did something really bananas, and seriously (no, seriously!) discusses the RTDB dynamic of 2018 compared to previous seasons and what 2019 needs to do better.

Is WR1 or RB1 more important to this year’s campaign? OFD considered just this topic.

Finally, 18s reminds us all why the relative success of the offense versus defense matters a great deal in the context of yards per play.

Players to Watch

This is the bread and butter of preseason writing. The endless additions and subtractions make the roster watch the most important (and time consuming!) thing to do. Not uncommon are LISTS. Who is awesome? Who is not? Who should we watch? Who has the best fashion? Who sounds most like a Boy Band member?

I get it. I really do. But, honestly, I do not need lists to tell me Ian Book and Julian Okwara are both really good and really important. There are, however, derivative consequences to ranking players I love. Most of these deal with identifying the names not in the Top 25 Most Likely to Succeed Performers, but those guys that would (I suppose) rank in that 25-55 range that typically mean a lot more to the eventual outcome of the season.

Douglas Farmer at NBC is the man who now compiles the aggregated Top 25 players list. Far more intriguing then those 25 are the “just misses and others receiving votes.” Everyone’s pre-season boyfriend, Kyle Hamilton, is on this list. If ND truly has a great season, I think at least a few of Houston Griffith, Kevin Austin, Shayne Simon, TaRiq Bracy, and Kyren Williams (all also on this list), along with Hamilton will have made more than a nominal impact and in retrospectives be deemed “too low.”

Along the same lines, players currently in a back-up role and players replacing (or expected to considerably assist in replacing) departed stars lists are also more fun than Top 25’s.

Then, there are the unsung heroes who won’t crack the positional depth chart but will contribute on special teams. OFD’s predictions were fun and a good introduction to some of the younger guys not named Hamilton.

Finally, with fall practice concluding and the team officially into Week 1 prep, Greg Flammang’s post-camp stock report is a near perfect Cliff’s Notes to the players who moved based on the camp reports provided by Kelly.

Unit Depth

When it’s time to take a hollistic approach, every team will experience (relative) ups and downs. Some units improve. Others get worse. In a weird plot twist, the WR corps will be a strange follow to see how they start compared to how they finish. Camp injuries to Cole Kmet and Michael Young will have a substantial impact on Ian Book’s expected distribution. The present depth chart suggests folks like Lawrence Keys and Tommy Tremble will (ahem) receive additional early season opportunities. And then, there’s the case of Kevin Austin. Let’s hope he’s far more Dex than Steph.

While HLS will have its own version of the ND Roster coming out soon, I thought 18s’s visualization (albeit a TAD colorful) is a good summary of where the consensus has landed to date for each position.

Watching this Fall

Going to a game in South Bend? Hell yeah you are! So, do it the right way. (OFD)

And, if you’re gonna get drunk while you’re there and yell at the players, yell at them with the CORRECT pronunciation. (OFD)

And for you stat nerds, there’s ALWAYS numerical history in the air. Here are a few milestones 18s has identified could be reached this year.

Finally, Breathe…

Relax, pop a Xanax, avoid that Four Loko Seltzer stuff, get me (Moons) tickets to the UGA game, play with your dog, tweet stuff at Gottlieb. Whatever, gets you ready. Just also take the NDOB’s advice on context.

I love you all, and yes, if I didn’t include your article, it was very, very personal. Yes, your’s!

The post The People’s Free Guide to ND Football 2019 appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Indeed, if I reflect back, I have a difficult time pinpointing the moment I became an Irish fan. There’s no obvious reason for it. I am a born and raised southerner. My parents are from the northeast. Sure, they’re Catholic, but my Dad’s a BC Alum…oh…that’s right. I’ve been a contrarian dick for quite a while!

Revising my last paragraph: I can say my earliest Irish memories are the result of (1) convenience – since their games were always on, (2) being a spritely short dude, I can relate to a leprechaun, and (3) it was an easy way to gently sports jab the old man. I became a self-aware Irish fan somewhere around the mid-90’s. I can’t reflect on the Tony Rice/Tim Brown/Raghib Ismail/Jerome Bettis days because they pre-date my “fandom” as it were. (Interesting side note: I did have a Raghib Ismail Toronto Argonauts trading card that I would not trade for anything because I just thought it was the best thing ever he was nicknamed “The Rocket.” Had no concept at the time he was an ND guy. Oddly, I did not have the same affection for Roger Clemens).

Then comes 1993, “College Gameday,” Beano Cook, and the promise of multiple Heismans for some guy named Ron Powlus. There was no Internet. No 247 Sports. Just. Beano. And by God, I was going to witness this. I was going to record this. After being bitten by a radioactive spider and trying my hand at Superhero-dom for a while, I settled on being a stat nerd. Faithfully for the better part of 3 seasons, I would sit down and record every single throw of Heisman Ron’s. It was rudimentary — pass #, complete/incomplete, yards, TD?, Int? but it was there. I wanted to have the play-by-play data in my little red notebook to memorialize Ron’s numerous Heismans. Some day, on my death bed, I was gonna sit there with my grand kids and regale them with play by play information of how the Heisman was renamed the “Powlus.” I don’t mean to spoil things, but that Heisman moment never came.

In the meantime though, I watched and came to love Autry Denson, Marc Edwards, Joey Goodspeed (Heisman caliber name), Pete Chryplewicz (He lead the 1996 team with 27 receptions and 4 TD catches), Derrick Mayes (favorite all-time receiver), and my favorite defender of all time…Allen Rossum. No one will ever assign this as the glory days of Notre Dame football, and yet for me, this is the era of the players I still love the most.

By the time the Powlus era came to an end, I was hitting high school. I didn’t have the statistical evidence of the greatest QB to ever play for Notre Dame, but now I wanted to attend Notre Dame. As a student! For college credit! Weird thing happened…After joining a lot of clubs, learning a lot of math that I’ve long since forgotten, and forcing myself to actually read books and not just buy the Cliff’s Notes, I made that dream come true. It’s probably the last time I really cared and sought out to do anything so grand and long term. I’ve never regretted that for even a day. Well….being a student during the final year of Davie plus the Willingham years, it’s dishonest to say I never regretted it, but I feel generally confident in my decision.

Somewhere along the way of scribbling down Powlus’ throws into my notebook, I gained a morbid interest in charting offensive plays. I’m a small guy. Not Hobbit sized per se, but not not-Hobbit sized either. Suffice it to say, playing football wasn’t really in the cards. Charting plays, learning tendencies, and trying to absorb the strategy was my way of relating to the sport. Around 2010 or 2011, I started to on occasion write posts on a loosely formed blog called “John Lynch’s Dad” that I authored with a buddy of mine. The topics, content, and general quality were both sprawling and disorganized. As the years passed, several ND blogs have afforded me the opportunity to be equally random with slightly greater readership. I get the added bonus of occasionally having in-depth #snacktalk.

I started at HLS as a staff writer. Then, during Tex’s first or second semi-retirement, I stepped up to an assistant editor position. I lacked the bandwidth to make that work, and fortunately Tex is a far more hopelessly addicted ND blogger/vlogger/podcaster/simulator/tweeter/responsible adult than myself. So, I get to return to the fold primarily to return to my passion for #sportsmath, statistical breakdowns, and to finally record Powlus’ breakthrough season. I look forward to the tens of you who will read my work. To the rest of you – congratulations on having a life.

Consubstantially Yours,

Moons

The post (Re)Introducing Moons (Ugh) Moons appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

To find out, I asked some of the smartest, most level-headed ND fans I know the pressing questions to figure out who should be Notre Dame’s next head coach (spoiler: I know about 5 people). The search committee panel includes: BayouIrish, NDTex, and IrishElvis. With names like those, I’m sure their recommendations will be good.

The first thing I asked the panel to define was how good a job Notre Dame is. Gentlemen, what say you:

Tex: It’s THE job. The fact we need a committee to find THE guy is, quite frankly, an outright assault on Our Lady’s University and proof this administration has been lost ever since Monk Molly did his damnedest to remove any all sense of pride, history, and prestige in this program.

Bayou: How good a job is ND? The right question is “Is Notre Dame really a job?” The right answer, of course, is “no, it is a calling.” Nowhere else does one have the opportunity to coach, recruit, fund-raise, AND ensure that the program promotes the school’s Catholic mission.

IrishElvis: The best. This job has ALL the benefits: new stadium and practice facilities (that somehow also compromise the school’s Catholic character), a rabid/loyal/irrational/geriatric fanbase, a stated ideal to uphold academic standards, and a truly national schedule without any scrimmages masquerading as D-II opponents. Simultaneously, it’s free from all the drawbacks: constant ESPN fawning, state finances that dump truckloads of cash directly into the football program at the expense of other athletics or even the University as a whole, and sunny weather that diverts players’ attention in those poor non-Midwestern locales.

Needless to say, the panel is bullish on ND’s current status. Their answers varied like colors of The Shirt, but there was a common thread that ran throughout: make us buy into something new each and every year. I next asked them to explain what the program’s most pressing need is:

Bayou: Better name recognition. Today’s top-flight coaches and players aren’t going to waste their time on a program that isn’t on a major channel, home or away, that isn’t part of the radio program circuit, and that doesn’t absorb one’s and zero’s on the internet.

IrishElvis: Win all the games, even practices, by a big score. Don’t care too much about graduating players, unless you care too little about graduating players — because then everyone will be angry with you.

Tex: A National Championship–nothing less will do. By the way, the time limit is three years. Any Notre Dame coach worth a damn did that. And there better not be any signs of rebuilding either. Hit the ground running, and I mean the literal running game, or get the hell out of the way for the next guy.

Bayou’s answer confused me at first, and then I recalled he was the only panelist to submit his response via Western Union. The guy is old school though, which is why he wouldn’t pass on answering the question. Elvis and Tex both homed in on the clear answer – Notre Dame simply needs to stop losing games. After all, you can’t spell “F-I-R-E_K-E-L-LY” if you’ve got no L’s.

One of the enduring debates in any coaching search is who is your ideal candidate? Do you want the tried and true head coach with gobs of big game experience and title or 7 (because there are a LOT of these just itching to take less money and live in Granger, IN)? Do you re-try the Kelly route: head coach with lots of success at lower levels who’s ready for the bright lights of America’s #1 Independent Catholic football program? What about a young assistant? If young, how young? Alive for the Dan Devine Natty? Alive for the Holtz Natty? Or even younger…someone who truly stops and pauses to consider if Evan Sharpley is the best ND quarterback of his lifetime?

IrishElvis: I want someone with experience, but someone who’s young and relatable. We need a good mind — like a coordinator — but someone who has an executive presence. Also, someone who knows how to be passionate and rile up the team…but not in a way that’s visible on the sideline during nationally-televised games.

Tex: Notre Dame is not a place for on-the-job training. Seriously, imagine trying to build a national powerhouse on anything less than a proven record of head coaching success at the Power Five level. It would be like hiring a coach just because he was a good football player. Rockne would roll over in his grave.

Bayou: Yes

Bayou’s game for anything. He may actually be fine with just pulling Rockne out of the grave. IrishElvis is a bit more selective. I feel more confident (though not certain) he would prefer a coach presently alive and ready for a challenge. Tex has perhaps given us a sneak peak at his eventual recommendation. But, before we get to their recs, one more topic to address…

There is no sub-set of human existence where visor wearing is more tolerated. Well, maybe beach volleyball. But I’ve heard the Kerri Walsh Jennings isn’t available, and the next Summer Olympics are scheduled to occur in year three of our new coach’s campaign anyways. What does our panel want? A visor wearer or not?

Tex: Further proof that this administration is lost. The question should be “Tie or no tie?” because a suit is the true attire of a winner. Imagine the success a team like Miami would have if someone roamed the sidelines in a suit as God intended.

The post Coaching Search Committee: Notre Dame 2017 Edition appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Of course, there’s no need to hide the ball – for Irish faithful, the main event will kickoff just after eight PM in Miami. Yes, there are some painful flashbacks from January 2013 that might pop into your head, but most seem to be in agreement that this battle should be something quite different from that horror show. Instead, with a Top 10 match-up between Our Lady’s University and The U, people have been harkening back even earlier than 2013. The vibe and intensity has many recalling the clashes with Miami of the late 1980’s and with that has been the return of the game moniker “Catholics vs. Convicts.” I’m here to make my pitch to everyone out there to stop using that name.

Our slice of the interweb has been accused (quite recently in fact!) of telling people “how to enjoy football.” I consider this is a serious attack. After all, sports and fandom is entertainment. It should be fun. I am generally pro-fun and pro-fun-things-in-sports. So make no mistake, I don’t mean to be pedantic about fandom. You do you, but I would like to suggest the possibility that enjoying this 2017 Notre Dame team without comping them to a specific era of the past could enhance your enjoyment.

For me, there is no comparison between college football and the NFL. The sterile, packaged, overly-marketed feel of the NFL is a real turn off. Everything organic about traditions and loyalty is scooped up, run through a marketing machine, and spit back out with a lot of filler ingredients. It’s, in a word, boring. What college football gets right is letting each game’s excitement speak for itself. Yes, in part this is because traditionally college football is the only of the major sports where each regular season week feels monumentally important. It’s also because the match-ups and traditions feel like they grow out of the games rather than being cultured in a Madison Avenue office.

Rivalries feel important. Even in down years, there’s still something special about certain match-ups. Notre Dame/Michigan and Notre Dame/USC immediately come to mind for our fans. No matter the respective records, there’s a genuine excitement and desire to destroy the opponent. Virtually every team in football has these match-ups where record doesn’t matter. I just don’t view Notre Dame/Miami as one of those. I’m sure for fans of a certain age, I’ll get some disagreement here. Yes, the match-ups of the late 1980’s were monumental, epic showdowns. They featured programs at the height of their power and coaches with a penchant for the dramatic. The “Catholics versus Convicts” showdowns were peak college football awesomeness. I do not dispute this.

Here’s where I break away: I also view the “Catholics versus Convicts” moniker as very distinct to a specific era of a particular match-up. Sure, I saw some folks mention that name in 2012 and 2016, but nothing to the effect that I’ve seen in the build up this year. That’s because the match-up doesn’t have nearly the same buzz without the programs excelling. Ask fans of the Iron Bowl…or Bedlam…or Good Old Fashioned Hate what the game means, and it’s always a chance to add an exclamation to a season. Sure, it’s bigger when the teams are doing well, but it always means something. Notre Dame/Miami doesn’t have that. Reviving the “Catholics versus Convicts” title with the teams doing well sells 2017 Notre Dame short and undersells a team trying to forge its own place in history. It just feels…forced.

I love Notre Dame’s traditions. I love its spirit and sense of history. There’s a reason that so many fans outside of the Irish faithful view a trip to South Bend as akin to a trip to the Holy Land. However, sometimes (sometimes! I repeat SOMETIMES!!), our fans get a little over obsessed with recollections of the good old days. A return to glory, an awakening of the echoes, is all fine and good. I’m pro-that too. But, it seems like Brian Kelly and the current Irish team is constantly compared to the Holtz-era for no apparent reason other than that was the last time the team did well consistently. It’s the last tick mark on the “glory” days of Notre Dame football, and therefore, anything new must be a return to the old. And that’s unfortunate. I say, let this team make its own traditions. Let this game be its own special event and not just a rehash of an era past.

For those that follow Notre Dame SID, Michael Bertsch, you’ve probably seen the number of stats he’s put out telling you that this Irish team is doing things that relate back to dominance even older than the Holtz-era. Even older than the whole “Catholics versus Convicts” thing. There’s no need for 2017 to be a re-boot. Independence Day was a damn fine movie in the mid-1990’s. It was fun, action packed, and had its own quirks…like making Jeff Goldblum, Bill Pullman, and Randy Quaid action “stars.” You know what it didn’t need, to be re-made? Trying to re-create the magic just felt sad, empty, and over-produced. Kind of like an NFL product.

If you sit down to watch the Irish tomorrow and still want to make references to “Catholics versus Convicts,” that’s fine. I won’t begrudge you. I’m basically expecting ABC to make some references to it. And, as I said at the outset, I’m pro-fun. So do the fun thing. For me, and I’m hoping for some of you, I’d just prefer that the fun seem fresh, new, and organic to the 2017 campaign and not a forced recall to a time now passed.

As always, Go Irish!

The post An Argument to Stop Calling it “Catholics versus Convicts” appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

In a season that’s gained more momentum with each passing week, Josh Adams’ Heisman candidacy is finally up to full speed, and there’s no one left to stop it but himself. No, Vegas doesn’t have him favored. In fact, at present it still has Saquon Barkley as the overwhelming favorite, but Adams continues to creep up the odds, and that’s just fine. This is not a sprint…although if it were, I’m not betting on anyone catching Josh. There’s a part of me that feels bad for writing this, but it’s mainly out of respect for Adams’ humble, team first nature. I’m sure he’d hate to read this because it’s not his style. Fortunately, I’m just a dumb Internet dude and can say whatever I feel. So, let me explain…

As recently as two weeks ago, I was not aboard the Josh Adams Heisman hype train. It wasn’t that I didn’t think he was deserving of some mention, but the truth is he had his “worst” two games versus the team’s stiffest tests to date. The 19 carry, 53 yard, 0 TD performance versus UGA was enough for me to slow down on any possible Heisman talk. Not when Bryce Love was gaining the nickname “The Human First Down” for his 10+ yards/carry average and Saquon Barkley was still doing plenty to get his name mentioned in every highlight package. And then some college football things started happening.

October 21, 2017:

Stanford had its scheduled bye week. No Bryce Love to share yards per carry gushing with. Saquon Barkley, who’s been the favorite most of the way so far, put up a pretty awesome game in Penn State’s drubbing of Michigan. Barkley ran for 108 yards on 15 carries (7.2 ypc) with 2 TD’s. He added 3 receptions for 53 yards and another touchdown. Putting up 150+ yards from scrimmage with 3 touchdowns is good, right? We all agree with that?

Josh Adams took it a step farther. In the Irish’s nationally televised tilt with Southern Cal, Adams exploded for 191 yards on 19 carries (10 ypc) with 3 touchdowns en route to a 49-14 whoopin’ of a Top 15 team. While no one will mistake USC’s defense for UGA’s, it was still a dominating performance and cast Adams as a lead actor in the larger narrative announcing Notre Dame’s presence in the national conversation. There are a lot of different ways I could try to illustrate how drastic the USC game changed ND and by extension Adam’s place, but anecdotally consider this: Prior to the USC game, ESPN did not include Adams on its “Heisman Watch” list. Following the game, Adams appeared at number 4 behind only Barkley, Love, and Baker Mayfield.

It was going to take more than one game for Adams to establish himself, but this was a monumentally important game for any legitimate Heisman campaign. Had Adams failed to score or failed to eclipse 100 yards, I’d have declared his campaign dead. Not enough time versus enough quality competition left to make up the distance. These votes, these awards are incredibly fickle. But this game was just that pivotal.

October 28 2017:

Bryce Love was forced to sit out for a second straight week. This time due to injury. For a West Coast candidate, being out of game action for that long is more than just a slight disadvantage. Love is incredibly fun to watch. However, it’s proven difficult to actually watch him! That matters. East Coast bias is a real thing. I’m not here to change the culture, just react to where it presently stands. It didn’t help that Stanford played on a Thursday night and struggled to get passed a woeful Oregon State team that’s already working with an interim coach. I’ve seen some argue that Stanford struggling in Love’s absence in a perverse way proves just how important he is, and I don’t doubt that. I just doubt there’s a Heisman voter who really cares about what absence means for a team already carrying two losses.

Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley would endure an up and down battle in Columbus, OH. The rushing line wasn’t great – just 44 yards on 21 carries with 1 touchdown. He was able to add a kick return for a touchdown, and in a vacuum, Barkley’s 2 TD performance with over 100 all purpose yards is still better than Adams’ performance in a loss. However, two things matter more: First, the loss comes later in the season, and that’s important. Except for the biggest of match-ups, September is generally not the time where the nation has crystalized its focus on what players and teams to watch. Notre Dame/Georgia was a big week 2 match-up, but at the time, no one understood just how important a match-up it might have ended up being. Both the Irish and the Bulldogs were coming off of disappointing (to say the least) 2016 campaigns. The week two match-up was viewed more of a barometer of who might be on the upswing than an actual battle between two of the nation’s elite. For that reason, Adams’ lackluster performance was largely ignored. By contrast, the Penn State/Ohio State game was #2 versus #6 on the eve of November and the first College Football Playoff Committee rankings being released. Barkley’s “down” performance in a loss will be remembered more than Adams’ September 9^th showing. Particularly if anyone looks just at the rushing line.

The second, and larger, point has to do with Penn State”s November schedule and current place within the playoff picture. Saquon Barkley’s next two games are noon starts, and he’ll finish the season versus Nebraska and Maryland. Barring Ohio State losing twice down the stretch, Saquon Barkley is out of primetime, big game opportunities to make an impression on Heisman voters. As attention ratchets up on the most important teams and players, it’s possible Barkley will be nothing more than a box score for the entire month of November.

Josh Adams also did his part. 202 yards on a career high 27 carries in the Irish’ s second straight dominant win over a Top 15 opponent. It was enough to be named the Walter Camp Offensive Player of the Week. It was enough to finally get the national pundits and talking heads to start mentioning his name in the conversation, and that’s all he needed to do at this juncture. November is all about Josh and the Irish.

What History Tells Us:

Since 1992, only one non-quarterback/runningback has lifted the Heisman Trophy – Charles Woodson in 1997. Since Woodson’s win, there have been 18 winners. 14 quarterbacks and 4 runningbacks. Ricky Williams and Ron Dayne won the award in back to back years in 1998 and 1999. Both were seniors who in many respects received the Heisman as a career achievement award as Williams and Dayne both finished all time careers with 2,000 yard rushing campaigns. That leaves us only two runningback data points to consider. Mark Ingram’s 2009 win and Derrick Henry’s 2015 win.

Mark Ingram, 2009: Ingram was helped out by a weaker than normal quarterback showing. Colt McCoy (3^rd), Tim Tebow (5^th), and Kellen Moore (7^th) were the leading vote getters at the usual front runner position. The battle was really between Ingram and Stanford’s Toby Gerhart. From a statistical perspective, Gerhart was the better player. Carrying a massive workload, Gerhart led the nation in yards with 1,871. Ingram finished fourth with 1,658. Gerhart’s 28 rushing TD’s were also a national best and well ahead of Ingram’s 17. The problem for Gerhart’s campaign was that the Cardinal finished just 8-4 in the regular season. Meanwhile, Ingram and the Crimson Tide would win a National Title finishing 14-0. It was more important to be the best player on the best team than it was to be the most prolific runner on a lesser team and brand. Keep that in mind.

Derrick Henry, 2015: Henry’s the only example we have of a runningback winner in the Playoff Era. Henry set an SEC rushing record with 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns. His yards, touchdowns, and carries were all the most by a Heisman-winning back since Ricky Williams’ 1998 campaign. The closest competition was Christian McCaffrey. Stanford stumbled out of the gate losing their opener to Northwestern 6-16. They would spend the majority of the season scrapping and clawing their way back into national relevance from that surprising defeat. By November 14, Stanford had climbed as high as 7^th and at least had their name back in the playoff conversation. A 36-38 loss to Oregon that night doomed the Cardinal’s playoff hopes. It’s probably unlikely McCaffrey could have overtaken Henry even with a playoff run because of the difference in touchdowns, but even with consecutive wins over then #4 Notre Dame and then #24 USC to close out the season, McCaffrey could not catch Henry. Alabama again won the national title.

Quarterbacks Rule the Day:

There’s more margin for error at the quarterback position. Being on a national title contender is important, but not mandatory. Lamar Jackson’s absurd 51 touchdown performance was enough to overcome inconsistent team results including back-to-back losses leading up to the vote. Same was true for both Johnny Manziel in 2012 and Robert Griffin in 2011 who used dual threat capabilities to post 40+ touchdown seasons at the time of Heisman voting. Lamar Jackson will probably have touchdown and rushing numbers virtually the same as he did at the time of voting last year. But Louisville’s already got 4 losses, and there is no way the voters will allow for a two-time winner in that scenario. Particularly because there are enough other players having strong seasons. Will Grier currently leads the nation in touchdowns at 28, but he’s not going to win. From the Heisman’s favored position, there’s Baker Mayfield and J.T. Barrett and not a lot else.

Why the Heisman’s Josh’s to Win or Lose:

So, we’ve got a pretty compelling case that unless you’re a record setter, you must be in the National Title picture. Of the 5 Heisman hopefuls (Love, Barkley, Mayfield, Barrett, Adams), Josh and the Irish are the only one of these teams that control their fate to get into the playoffs. If Notre Dame runs the table to 11-1, they are a virtual lock to make it. Penn State could win out and not even make the Big 10 Championship. Oklahoma and Ohio State, even if they win out, will probably be competing with each other’s resume’s the entire way. There are scenarios, however unlikely, where they could both win out and still miss the playoffs. Neither Mayfield nor Barrett is on pace to put up to such gaudy numbers that they could overcome missing the playoffs and still be crowned the Heisman winner. Bryce Love and Stanford are already virtually done in the playoff world. If Josh and the Irish take care of business in Palo Alto, that would be at least loss #3 for Love and you’d have an Ingram/Gerhart déjà vu scenario. If the Irish win out and Josh Adams posts similar numbers to what he’s done to date, his season will look a lot like Mark Ingram’s 2009. He’ll be the most prominent player on a blue blood team that should get plenty of press in November. Speaking of press…

I’ve already discussed Saquon Barkley’s media/attention problems that November poses. By contrast, November sets up perfectly for Notre Dame. Their two “lesser” games will both get the benefit of being NBC national broadcasts. If Miami can take care of Virginia Tech this weekend (far from a given, but stick with me here), that would set up a November 11^th showdown that would be a virtual lock to be an 8:00 PM primetime game and host of College Game Day (side note: I think it’s possible even if Miami losses that Game Day ends up in Miami. I think there’s a reason they selected Oklahoma/Oklahoma State this weekend over a less interesting but still marketable Virginia Tech/Miami game). Notre Dame finishes at Stanford, which should be publicized greatly, if for no other reason than it will feature a clash between Love and Adams. Four national television locks is a big advantage for the Heisman stretch run.

Baker Mayfield will get some air time too. The next two weekends feature match-ups with Oklahoma State and Mason Rudolph and then TCU. A game at Kansas on November 18 won’t get a lot of play, but the Nov. 25 clash with Will Grier and West Virginia could be interesting, and there’d still be the important Big 12 Championship Game.

If you ask me who might be the biggest threat from an attention perspective, it’s J.T. Barrett. Barrett’s passing yards won’t blow you away, but a 25-1 TD-to-Int ratio is pretty good. He’s still got games remaining versus both Michigan State and Michigan, but Fox has already announced both of those games as noon starts. The jewel Barrett has is a possible primetime showdown with an undefeated Wisconsin team on December 2^nd. Barrett’s the guy just getting his name into the mix that actually worries me the most. Again, Heisman campaigns generally become about amplified noise and attention. There’s enough left for the Buckeye’s 17^th year senior to still make a big move, and he is at the favored position.

All of that said, there’s something else to mention, and that’s the narrative. Barrett and Mayfield’s names have been around for a long while at this point…perhaps too long. The Ohio State or Oklahoma stories just aren’t all that interesting. Bryce Love’s awesome, but man, if Christian McCaffrey couldn’t break through the Heisman barrier, I’m not sure if Love can having already suffered 2 losses to USC and San Diego State.

That leaves Barkley and Adams. Saquon Barkley has been the media darling since the beginning of the season, and for very good reason: He is awesome. He’s a special talent that will be highly coveted at the next level as well. He’s a huge component of the resurgence of the Penn State brand, and the highlight reels are willing to look a little deeper to find a Barkley play to include. But Penn State’s in a bad situation to garner any real buzz in November, and I just can’t quite get over that.

Josh Adams is expected to be at the heart of another Notre Dame run. Fans of other teams can (understandably) complain, but the Notre Dame brand is still capable of generating as much buzz as any program in the country. There’s a reason that Manti Te’o managed to finish second in 2012. Part of it was the relative weakness of the offensive talent that year, but a larger component was the narrative and story that surrounded the Irish. Much like Te’o became the public face of the 2012 Irish story, Adams is being positioned to do the same with this 2017 version. Of the six teams that should feel best about their playoff chances (Alabama, Clemson, UGA, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Oklahoma), the first three all lack a real candidate. Jalen Hurts is a very good player. He’s not going to win the Heisman. Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State are all boring story lines. No one cares about their lead up to the playoffs because they’re so well established. Elevated expectations are fun for developing David v. Goliath plot lines, but they’re less helpful for creating Heisman narratives. Players become interchangeable pieces on well-oiled machines, and that hurts the story arc for selling any particular guy as exceedingly special. Only Georgia (no Heisman candidate) and Notre Dame have interesting story lines, but the Irish’s is the best. I’m sure some Dawg fans will disagree, but it won’t change which team is mentioned more prominently by national media outlets.

So long as the stat lines remain relatively close to one another, it’s the narrative and exposure that will matter more than the final numbers. The Heisman is there for Josh Adams and the Irish. They’ve just gotta keep on truckin’.

The post Josh Adams (and Notre Dame) Control the Heisman appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

FUSC. NOTRE DAME’S GOING TO WIN. BY 2 TOUCHDOWNS. AT LEAST.

I believe…because God shines on the Irish and condemns those sub-humans out west.

I believe…because the football Gods still owe ND a great debt for the Bush Push game.

I believe…because sometimes faith triumphs reason.

I know….because the collective of the Offensive Line and ND’s running backs will be the best players on the field tonight.

I know…because Sam Darnold, the Human Turnover, is up against Shaun Crawford. The Human Turnover.

I know…because God, Country, Notre Dame.

Y’all enjoy your morning/afternoon. See you tonight. – Moons

The post Beat the $*&_! Out of USC appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Some of the things I looked at:

1. Each team’s immediately preceding 3 game stretch before the match-up. I’m generally looking at quality of opponent, home/away splits, etc. rather than actual result. This is for good reason: I have no clue the results of future match-ups.
2. What I’m calling mismatch opportunities. I looked at things like scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing offense, rushing defense, passing offense, passing defense, and turnover stats to consider particular areas for exploitation. I wasn’t so much interested in the close calls as I was with clear advantages one way or another.
3. Quality of competition. What would I consider each team’s profile to date on what they’ve already accomplished? I reviewed things like the number of games played to date versus Power 5 conference opponents, each team’s best win as well as their worst loss.
4. A few advanced metrics: Once I had some preliminary thoughts, I pulled in the work of folks like Jeff Sagarin and Bill Connelly to see if there was anything obvious that maybe I was overlooking. I’m not going to reference them much because I’m told stats are for losers or something. Rest assured though, I certainly reviewed some #sportsmath.
5. The Moons anxiety factor. This is just what my gut tells me about each match-up. I could be wrong about applying #’s 1-4, but I feel reasonably confident in my application of the Moons anxiety factor.
6. Finally, Sunday night, via Twitter, I crowd sourced other folks’ countdown just to see what the masses are thinking. There’s some selection bias as if you follow me on Twitter, you probably have questionable judgment. I can’t say I necessarily considered these rankings, but I’ll include them below for reference.

So people can know what I was considering, here are my generalized observations about the Irish.

Quality of Competition: 4/6 games to date have been versus Power 5 competition. In a bit of an anomaly, the Irish are 3-0 on the road in such games and 0-1 at home. Notre Dame’s first 3 games of the second half will all be at home versus P5 teams, so the chance to correct that weirdness starts this weekend.

To date, Notre Dame’s road win versus Michigan State I have ranked as the second best “Best Win” among remaining competitors. I give USC a slight edge to date for their 42-24 dismantling of Stanford in Week 2. Defeating Sparty 38-18 on the road was certainly impressive, and given that that’s their only loss, I certainly get those that might want to elevate the result even higher. I just think that Stanford is a superior opponent to Sparty. I could be wrong.

Notre Dame’s 1 point loss to UGA also ranks as the seoncd “best” “Worst Loss” among the remaining competitors. Miami’s “yet to lose” edges out the Irish. You don’t think they’ve played anybody? Fine. But let me assure you, even if ND and Miami didn’t play one another, an undefeated Miami would be ranked higher than a 1-loss ND. If you don’t like that, please take that up with history and the people who actually have votes.

USC, NC State, and Stanford have all had a greater percentage to date include Power 5 competition. Stanford has by almost any measure played a more difficult schedule than the Irish. Miami and Navy trail by a wide margin in schedule strength played.

Notre Dame’s Profile for the statistical categories I considered are as follows [Rank provided first with (value in parentheses)]:

Scoring Offense: 14 (40 PPG)

Scoring Defense: 14 (16.8 PPGA)

Rush Yards per Attempt: 3 (7.74 rpa)

Rush Yards Allowed per Attempt: 44 (3.72 rpa)

Pass Yards per Game: 116 (163.2 ypg)

Pass Yards per Game Allowed: 78 (231.2 ypg)

Turnovers Forced: 17 (14 created)

Turnovers Allowed: 31 (7 surrendered)

If you missed it, Tex wrote a great piece on learning to hate USC. Others on the Interwebs have already begun debating whether defeating USC would count as a “signature” win. Which gets me to…

#4: USC – THIS SATURDAY – Home: (Crowd Source Rank: #3)

Here’s the thing, on the Moons Anxiety Scale, this is a 10…or a 1…I never really decided how this scale works, but however it works…it would get the highest (or lowest?) rating. Everything about this game screams “your team’s going to lose.”

Rivalry game? Check

When’s it being played? Night

Are the stakes high? You bet

How badly do you want to see the victory? Extremely

Do you have real world obligations that make stress, a night game, and the inevitable tall glass of whiskey a bad idea? Absolutely

The top 4 games are all pretty close. So close that if you have USC #1 and think I’m crazy for having them 4, I’m not going to put up that much of a fight. The fan vote straw poll agreed. 8 “points” separated numbers 1 through 4. USC ended up at #3. (For comparison’s sake – Navy at #5 was 34 points behind fan #4). It would be enough to note the perceived enormity of the moment on Saturday and say it’s the scariest/most important/most dangerous game of the year. Tack on having a likely Top 3 NFL Draft pick at quarterback, and this feels like a no brainer? So what happened? Why do I have them at #4?

Brian Kelly’s History: BK got lucky at avoiding the peak Pete Carroll seasons. Just thinking back to Poodle’s nightmarish domination of Notre Dame still stirs me awake in the middle of the night. So, yeah, facing Lane Kiffin, Sark, and now Clay Helton is not quite the same. But, Brian Kelly’s generally done okay. He’s 4-3 overall versus USC, which while not outstanding, is pretty good when you consider what Davie, Ty, and Charlie did. Heck, there’s a certain fan base up in Ann Arbor whose present coach has a 1-4 record versus their biggest rivals. I can live with 4-3. Consider these additional facts:

Notre Dame won their previous match-up heading into the USC tilt. That’s been true 5 other times. Brian Kelly is 4-1 in those games.

If you zoom out a little farther, the Irish have won their last 3 games heading into this weekend. Notre Dame’s had a winning record in their previous 3 games on 5 other occasions. They’re 4-1 in those as well.

The Irish currently sport a .833 winning percentage for the season. Twice before the team’s had at least the good a winning percentage. Brian Kelly’s 2-0 in that scenario.

Brian Kelly is 8-1 following a bye week (excluding bowl lead up).

I always figured the game I’d most disdain from 2011 was the South Florida game…or the Michigan game. But, at least for tonight, it’s the USC game, because that’s the only blip in all of these stats.

I understand the frustration some have had with Brian Kelly, and really Notre Dame for now several decades of not showing up on the biggest stages. The BCS shellings. USC 2005. FSU. Clemson. There’s a theme that’s sadly developed around the program when the light is shining brightest…and that’s coming up short. And yes, Saturday has that feel. I’m not sure that this game is quite at that level. After all, both teams already have one loss. But, it’s tough to shake that sinking feeling. I just have to remind myself that USC is not the team Kelly has shrunk against. I seem like I’m still talking this game up, not down. So, what else?

Scheduling Advantage!: I mentioned this when discussing the Wake Forest game a couple of days ago – given the general difficulty of Notre Dame’s schedule, it is tough to find “positives.” The USC game was the one match-up I felt the Irish had a clear advantage. Notre Dame has had two weeks to prepare. They’re at home. The previous two games they played were versus Miami (Ohio) and an injury depleted UNC squad. If Jack Swarbrick was given the ability to pick any place to slot USC in this year’s schedule, it would be right here. As I mentioned, Kelly’s been very good coming off of a bye week. From the Irish side of the equation, this is set up perfectly.

In stark contrast, USC is coming off a close a dramatic game versus a physical Utah team. Yes, the Trojans emerged victorious, but having to overcome a 21-7 halftime deficit and then travel half way across the country for a showdown with a major rival is not an easy thing to do. USC’s schedule lacks a bye week whatsoever. Their last 5 games have included: A 2 overtime win over Texas, a closer than expected game at Cal, a 3 point loss at Washington State, Oregon State, and the aforementioned clash with Utah. To expect USC to not be ready would be a mistake, but it’s tough to look at those schedules next to one another and not give a clear advantage to the Irish.

Turnovers Matter: Sam Darnold is an impressive quarterback. Look what he did to Penn State in last year’s Rose Bowl. 450 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 17 unanswered 4^th quarter points. Look what he did to Utah just last week in the second half. In a very short period of time, Darnold has established himself as a difference maker and expected top NFL draft pick. That said, Darnold has some rather large warts on the early season stat line as well. Namely:

9 Interceptions – Only Tanner Lee (10) has more interceptions for a Power 5 QB.

6 fumbles – No Power 5 player has more, and

4 fumbles lost – Only Iowa QB Nathan Stanley has as many in the P5.

Utah was the first game Darnold did not throw an interception. Of course, he lost 3 fumbles. Darnold threw 9 interceptions to 31 touchdowns last year. He’d need to throw 16 touchdowns without an interception at this point to reach that same rate. As much as I fear Darnold as a playmaker and am concerned that the secondary has not seen a quarterback remotely as talented to date, recent history suggests he’s going to give the Irish chances to end possessions prematurely. The Trojans are 122^nd nationally in turnovers allowed (16) in just 7 games. They are averaging more than 2 turnovers a game. Basically, the averages think Notre Dame starts this game with a +1 turnover differential, and that matters. A lot. NC State, Wake Forest, Miami, and Stanford all do pretty well with ball security. USC does not. After ranking 114^th and 104^th in takeaways per game the last two seasons, the Irish defense currently sits 15^th nationally averaging 2.3 takeaways per game. It just so happens that 2.3 is also the number of giveaways USC averages. It’s easily the biggest turnover mismatch the Irish have on paper the second half.

#3: N.C. State – October 28, 2017 – Home: (Crowd Source Rank: #2)

It turns out, just about everyone fears the N.C. State game. Originally, I had N.C. State #2 as well. I think we’re all suffering a year long hangover from the 2016 hurricane pass-a-thon. There’s no question, N.C. State is a solid, all around team. My final decision came down to:

Schedule Advantage: Wolfpack: Everything I said about Notre Dame as it relates to USC. Just go ahead and copy/paste it down here and change the team names a little bit. While the Irish will be involved in a primetime clash with a major rival, N.C. State will be at home enjoying the drink version of a Hurricane. I am sure they too will appreciate having the extra week to prepare and having come off a relatively easy game versus Pitt. Yes, N.C. State will have to travel to South Bend which might dull the impact a little bit. However, Notre Dame follows up its greatest scheduling advantage with its greatest scheduling disadvantage.

Pass Defense Concerns for the Irish?: I don’t know. We’ll learn some this week versus USC. I keep replaying in my head some dropped TD passes in both the UNC and BC games and know opposing offenses let some points and yards slip quite literally through their fingers. You may not know his name, but N.C. State’s quarterback Ryan Finley currently ranks 7^th in the FBS among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage just a tick shy of 70%. His 1,968 yards ranks 12^th…just 95 yards fewer than Sam Darnold. However, here’s the difference…and it’s a big one…Finley has yet to throw an interception this year. In fact, no quarterback in college football has thrown for more yards without throwing an interception than Ryan Finley. Notre Dame’s pass defense ranks 78^th in football giving up about 230 yards a game. Here are the opposition to date’s ranks in passing yards/game:

Temple: 52 (247.3)

Georgia: 108 (170.8)

Boston College: 109 (168.1)

Michigan State: 88 (197.0)

Miami (OH): 46 (257.7)

UNC: 71 (212.7)

Now let’s consider some of the future schedule:

USC: 23 (296.4)

NC State: 22 (297.0)

Miami: 28 (288.5)

Let that sink in for a moment – The best passing offense ND’s played to date is Miami (OH) who ranks 46^th. They’ve played 3 offenses that rank worse than 85^th. It would be one thing if Notre Dame was just that good defensively, but let me repeat: Notre Dame ranks 78^th nationally in passing yards allowed per game. If you want to chalk that up to garbage time, that’s probably fair to an extent. However, some of the advanced metrics remain pretty concerned about both Nicks (Watkins and Coleman) as well as Jalen Elliott in the secondary, and I’m not sure we’ve seen enough from any of them to feel entirely comfortable the other way.

But, the Advanced Metrics Don’t Like N.C. State that much: In some ways, this is only true as it relates to the two teams that will remain, Stanford and Miami. Both Sagarin and the Football Outsiders modeling prefer Stanford and Miami to N.C. State, although all three rank in the Top 30 nationally. I’ll admit that I was taken back to find out that Bill Connelly’s Win Probability gives Notre Dame a 72% chance to beat N.C. State. Compare that to 63% for USC, 50% for Stanford, and just 44% for Miami. What it basically amounts to is that the advanced models are not sold on NC State’s defense as being anything more than middle of the (wolf)pack. By contrast, most of the models like what ND’s unit is doing as a whole. The models also generally like ND’s offense (passing woes be damned). In short, they favor ND’s offense over NC State’s defense by a wide enough margin compared to ND’s defense versus NC State’s offense to convince the models to expect a W for the Irish. Computers are smart! This was enough to convince me to slate NC State behind Stanford and Miami but still ahead of USC for the aforementioned reasons.

Let’s all just hope the computers are the smart ones…well, at least until we start talking about Miami and Stanford.

The post HLS Second Half Preview: Ranking the Competition #’s 4 and 3 appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Welcome to USC week! Oh yes, there’ll be time to hate on the condom school out west, but this preview looks to set the stage for what should be an interesting…exciting…compelling…jubilant(?)…miserable(?) next couple of months.

Notre Dame’s 5-1 start to the season, accompanied by UGA’s continued success and the general “meh”-ness of most of the top teams not named Alabama has raised the generalized expectations of what this season could be. The schedule is also set to get noticeably tougher. There is, as people in the biz will tell you, plenty of meat left on the bone. While some are already channeling their anger for how an 11-1 Notre Dame gets left out of the playoff picture, let’s take a looksy shall we at the opponents ND will need to beat to get to that level.

I present to you a Countdown List (blogs/websites freakin’ love lists AND countdowns…so I’m pretty sure I’m onto something great here) of Notre Dame’s remaining games in reverse-order of difficulty. I’m considering ND and their future opponents as they exist on October 16, 2107. Some of the things I looked at:

1. Each team’s immediately preceding 3 game stretch before the match-up. I’m generally looking at quality of opponent, home/away splits, etc. rather than actual result. This is for good reason: I have no clue the results of future match-ups.
2. What I’m calling mismatch opportunities. I looked at things like scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing offense, rushing defense, passing offense, passing defense, and turnover stats to consider particular areas for exploitation. I wasn’t so much interested in the close calls as I was with clear advantages one way or another.
3. Quality of competition. What would I consider each team’s profile to date on what they’ve already accomplished? I reviewed things like the number of games played to date versus Power 5 conference opponents, each team’s best win as well as their worst loss.
4. A few advanced metrics: Once I had some preliminary thoughts, I pulled in the work of folks like Jeff Sagarin and Bill Connelly to see if there was anything obvious that maybe I was overlooking. I’m not going to reference them much because I’m told stats are for losers or something. Rest assured though, I certainly reviewed some #sportsmath.
5. The Moons anxiety factor. This is just what my gut tells me about each match-up. I could be wrong about applying #’s 1-4, but I feel reasonably confident in my application of the Moons anxiety factor.
6. Finally, Sunday night, via Twitter, I crowd sourced other folks’ countdown just to see what the masses are thinking. There’s some selection bias as if you follow me on Twitter, you probably have questionable judgment. I can’t say I necessarily considered these rankings, but I’ll include them below for reference.

So people can know what I was considering, here are my generalized observations about the Irish.

Quality of Competition: 4/6 games to date have been versus Power 5 competition. In a bit of an anomaly, the Irish are 3-0 on the road in such games and 0-1 at home. Notre Dame’s first 3 games of the second half will all be at home versus P5 teams, so the chance to correct that weirdness starts this weekend.

To date, Notre Dame’s road win versus Michigan State I have ranked as the second best “Best Win” among remaining competitors. I give USC a slight edge to date for their 42-24 dismantling of Stanford in Week 2. Defeating Sparty 38-18 on the road was certainly impressive, and given that that’s their only loss, I certainly get those that might want to elevate the result even higher. I just think that Stanford is a superior opponent to Sparty. I could be wrong.

Notre Dame’s 1 point loss to UGA also ranks as the seoncd “best” “Worst Loss” among the remaining competitors. Miami’s “yet to lose” edges out the Irish. You don’t think they’ve played anybody? Fine. But let me assure you, even if ND and Miami didn’t play one another, an undefeated Miami would be ranked higher than a 1-loss ND. If you don’t like that, please take that up with history and the people who actually have votes.

USC, NC State, and Stanford have all had a greater percentage to date include Power 5 competition. Stanford has by almost any measure played a more difficult schedule than the Irish. Miami and Navy trail by a wide margin in schedule strength played.

Notre Dame’s Profile for the statistical categories I considered are as follows [Rank provided first with (value in parentheses)]:

Scoring Offense: 14 (40 PPG)

Scoring Defense: 14 (16.8 PPGA)

Rush Yards per Attempt: 3 (7.74 rpa)

Rush Yards Allowed per Attempt: 44 (3.72 rpa)

Pass Yards per Game: 116 (163.2 ypg)

Pass Yards per Game Allowed: 78 (231.2 ypg)

Turnovers Forced: 17 (14 created)

Turnovers Allowed: 31 (7 surrendered)

For today, let’s unveil numbers 6 and 5 on the Countdown:

#6: Navy – November 18, 2017 – Home: (Crowd Source Rank: #5)

There was clear consensus among the match-up profiles, advanced stats, crowd sourced results, and Moons anxiety factor about which two games were numbers five and six. Most of the crowd sourced results had Wake Forest as number 6 and Navy as number 5. Look, I get it. Navy in recent years has generally finished with a better record than Wake Forest. They’ve also given appeared to be a bit of an Irish tormenter, but the truth is, Brian Kelly has typically had Navy’s number and this year feels particularly ripe for some domination. Here were my big reasons for putting Navy at #6:

Quality of Competition: Don’t be fooled by Navy’s 5-1 mark. They have easily…and I mean EASILY, played the worst schedule to date. Their loss to Memphis isn’t that bad. It was only three points, and Memphis has already notched a win over UCLA this year as well. However, finding Navy’s “best” win was tough. I eventually landed on their road win over Florida Atlantic as their best result to date. They have yet to play a Power 5 team, and they’re probably set up to suffer another defeat this coming weekend versus Central Florida. They’ve yet to record a win versus a team over .500. Eeking out 3 point wins versus 2-5 Air Force and a 2 point win versus Tulane doesn’t much move the needle.

Notre Dame’s Scoring Offense versus Navy’s Scoring Defense: Despite playing the worst schedule and no Power 5 teams, Navy also has the worst Scoring Defense by nearly 5 points a game. There is not an opponent in the second half Notre Dame will leverage a greater scoring offense versus scoring defense advantage against than the match-up with the Midshipmen. Given Navy’s scheme, they are also least likely to take advantage of Notre Dame’s unknowns in the secondary. If you believe in the Elko “fundamentals” progression, this is a match-up that Notre Dame should dominate. A disciplined Notre Team should be able to stop Navy dead in their tracks.

Brian Kelly’s History versus Navy: There’s an assumption I’m going to make here that I must open up to everyone: This year’s Irish offense is run dependent. While there may be other match-ups that make that more problematic, it plays into an advantage for Brian Kelly’s squad in this particular context. First of all, Navy’s allowing 4.5 yards per carry this year to opponents which ranks just 83^rd nationally. Only the Stanford game presently provides indicators of a greater natural opportunity to leverage Notre Dame’s run prowess. Last year marked multiple firsts for the Irish versus Navy in the Kelly era: First loss. First time the team failed to score 38 points. First time rushing plays accounted for less than 55% of the offensive play selection.

Historically and consistently until last year, Kelly has seemed to understand the latent talent disparity this game poses, and has usually been content to grind it out and wear down Navy on the ground. The past 2 seasons showed a slight uptick in the number of passing plays called, but I have a strong hunch that Notre Dame will return to the ground in this one. The MO for the 2017 squad has already been to leverage the rushing game, and a similar strategy versus Navy should be enough to make this an easy win. Brian Kelly’s averaged 43.5 points per game in his last 6 meetings* with Navy with less prolific offenses. In the Kelly era, if ND rushes the ball at least 60% of the time (for the season they sit at 59.82%) versus Navy, they’ve scored 50, 38, and 49 points. That’ll do to make this a comfortable win.

*This was updated. I did not include the 2010 season because good lord was the team in rough shape from the Weis years. However, my statement was misleading. Apologies!!

 #5: Wake Forest – November 4, 2017 – Home: (Crowd Source Rank: #6)

It didn’t take long to find a place to disagree with the crowd, and I get it. Navy’s track record both overall and versus Notre Dame in the recent past provides reason for pause. However, this Wake Forest team is a little more tested than Navy, and by a narrow margin, they find their way to the #5 slot.

The Devil’s in the Details: Wake Forest’s schedule to date is an interesting one. They played at Clemson pretty tough, but what do we make of that with Clemson’s upset loss to Syracuse over the weekend? They also played Florida State tough in an eventual 7 point loss. There’s no question that FSU is not at the same level it normally is. This year’s Clemson team also lacks some guy named Watson. So, maybe you discount those games somewhat. However, from a pure talent perspective, those should both be blowouts. FSU and Clemson possess some of the highest aggregate recruiting rankings over the past 4 seasons. Wake Forest is one of the worst among Power 5 teams in that same department. Basically, I think you have to give Wake Forest credit for playing some name brand schools extremely tough, but need to temper those evaluations to a degree. And, if I don’t give ND credit for losses, there’s only so much credit I’m going to give Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons 4-2 mark is impressive for a school that has so routinely found itself scrounging for wins. However, their “best” win to date would have to be their only Power 5 win: At Boston College 34-10. BC is not good. I’m just not sure even squinting you could find any better win on Navy’s schedule.

The Elko Carryover: Let’s leave aside the strength of schedule argument for a moment (After all: I could point out that Notre Dame has only played 1 team who ranks above 98^th in scoring offense to date…and they lost to that team). Wake Forest is the only team that currently ranks ahead of ND in scoring defense. They are the one match-up of the second half where, at present, the defense is ranked higher than ND’s offense. I’m all for qualifiers, and putting Wake fifth out of sixth, I’m obviously discounting that performance a good amount, but, if you’re in love with Mike Elko’s “fundamentals,” then just remember where he came from. I doubt all of Elko’s magic left Winston Salem in an offseason, and the early returns suggest this team still outplays its natural talent level.

Schedule Concern?: At first blush, I was concerned about Wake’s place in the order. Coming off of back to back weeks versus ranked teams (USC and NC State), I thought, is there room for a let down? But, given the difficulty of ND’s back end generally, I actually landed on this being the second best situation for Notre Dame. Not only will the Irish basically have been home for a month by the time this game is played, but Wake will have played Georgia Tech and then Louisville leading up to having to play Notre Dame on the road. Irish fans are all too familiar with the “option” hangover that playing Navy can cause. What about playing the Paul Johnson version and then getting the presiding Heisman Trophy winner?

Don’t Bank on Turnovers: The Irish did a great job of exploiting turnovers in the first half. Their 14 forced turnovers is presently tied for 17^th in the nation. What it appears Notre Dame has not been advised of as a partial ACC member is that turnovers are kinda taboo. North Carolina State, Wake Forest, and Miami are all tied with Alabama for the fewest turnovers surrendered in the country to date. While I don’t think this matters all that much in the match-up with Wake as they’ve also not been particularly great at forcing turnovers, the other 2 match-ups may warrant greater attention.

The post HLS Second Half Preview: Ranking the Competition #’s 5 and 6 appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.