There are not many who would lose sleep if BVG lost his job effective yesterday, but I would be surprised to see any actual change this offseason. Given the injuries and Brian Kelly’s long standing relationship with VanGorder, it seems highly likely he’ll be granted at least one more season to prove that his “scheme” can take hold and raise the defense’s performance. This seems like a tall order for VanGorder to accomplish given results to date. For starters, VanGorder loses Jaylon Smith who spent much of the past 2 seasons making up for a lot of other player’s mistakes. He also loses his two best pass rushers in Sheldon Day and Romeo Okwara, Finally, whatever advantage/value added Joe Schmidt was providing pre-snap in lining up players also departs. In sum: VanGorder must find a way to improve a defense that hasn’t been fantastic after losing many of his most important playmakers.

That there’ll likely be a “Debate This” involving VanGorder at some point in the weeks and months to come should come as no surprise, but let me give you Loyal Sons and Daughters an amuse bouche of that debate.

A piece (albeit a minority share) of VanGorder’s issues is that he replaced the much beloved Bob Diaco. While Diaco’s defenses may not have been the most aggressive or exciting, they were pretty effective at accomplishing a healthy bottom line of keeping points off the board. I was curious how Diaco’s first two years as the defensive coordinator (2010-2011) compared to VanGorder’s first two seasons with the Irish. In particular, I didn’t have a strong recollection of how good the offenses were that Diaco faced compared to BVG. So the question I set out to answer was how well did these guys do at keeping points off the board compared to the general level of offense they faced? For each season, I took the full schedule and compared the points opponents scored versus the Irish compared to the season on whole. Let’s look at Bobby D first:

2010 Irish – Diaco
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2011 Irish – Diaco
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Roughly* (*I’ll willingly admit I used simple averages rather than weighted averages which might change some of the final numbers slightly), Diaco’s defenses on average held opponents to 30% fewer points (Defensive Suppression) than those same teams averaged over the course of a season. His “worst” showing was in 2010 versus Navy when he permitted the Midshipmen to score about 17% more points in that game than they had on average throughout the season. In fact, in Diaco’s first two seasons, he faced 12 offenses that for the season averaged 30+ points per game. Only one of those twelve (2011 Michigan) managed to reach or exceed their average point total versus the Irish. In those 26 games, only 3 times did a Diaco defense permit a team to reach or exceed their average point total.

And, here’s where the frustrations with VanGorder are likely to be exacerbated. Let’s look at BVG’s first two years running the same criteria:

2014 Irish – BVG
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2015 Irish – BVG
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On an absolute basis, VanGorder’s defenses have simply given up more points. However, and this surprised me somewhat, he really hasn’t faced a much harsher schedule than Diaco. In fact, in VanGorder’s first two seasons, he’s faced 11 offenses that averaged 30+ points for the season to Diaco’s 12. He also faced no offenses that averaged 40+ points to Diaco’s 3. In 6 of the 11 games versus high powered offenses, BVG’s teams wilted letting that team exceed their already high season points average. BVG also had 7 games in which his defense inflated the opposing team’s points worse than Diaco’s “worst” performance versus Navy. The capper being the 2014 Northwestern game where the Wildcats fell just a field goal short of doubling their season points per game average.

In total, VanGorder’s defenses have allowed the opposing offense to exceed their season points per game average in 11 of 26 contests (42%) in his first two seasons. VanGorder held an opponent to half as many points as their season average on 3 occasions to Diaco’s 6. The drop off from Diaco seasons 1 and 2 to VanGorder seasons 1 and 2 is about as stark as it can get. 2015 was an improved campaign for VanGorder, but still only about half as good as a Diaco campaign.

What may make it even tougher for Irish fans to swallow is that year 3 of the Diaco era was the 2012 campaign during which the Irish had one of the strongest defenses in the country on a points allowed basis. It’s unreasonable to expect VanGorder to make that dramatic an ascension, but anything short of a steep improvement should probably be enough to show BVG the door. Diaco did a lot more with similarly situated talent. The gap between talent and performance cannot remain at its current level if VanGorder wants to stick around.

The post Bobby D vs BVG: The Early Years appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Simply put: the numbers strongly favor Ohio State. Whether considering the absolute bottom line of points allowed per game, where Ohio State’s been virtually the best in the country, or some of the secondary indicators, it’s tough to find a single area where Notre Dame has any sort of advantage. The Irish defense has been at its best situationally this season. You can read that to mean – in the red zone and on third downs. While the Irish managed to edge out Ohio State in these two categories, it feels like at best this puts the Irish on even footing situationally rather than wielding an advantage which can be exploited.

Perhaps more concerning is the expected showdown between Ohio State’s high powered rushing attack versus the Irish’s rushing defense. ND ranks just 74th nationally allowing 4.5 yards per attempt. Ohio State sits 8th nationally (2 spots behind Notre Dame) averaging 5.6 yards per rushing attempt on offense. Whereas the Buckeyes 10th ranked rushing defense versus ND’s rushing offense feels like a clash of titans, strength on strength, the reverse scenario is the single largest concern for fans hoping for a win.

If you’re optimistic and into talking about psychology and stuff, then Monday’s news of Zeke Elliott being cited for multiple driving violations including Driving on a Suspended License might be enough to persuade you that Ohio State’s most important offensive player might come out distracted or unmotivated. Hey, I hope you’re right. However, the week after griping and complaining and being perceived as a “distraction” following Ohio State’s loss to Michigan State, Elliott went out and averaged 7.1 yards per carry, rushing for over 200 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns versus rival Michigan. He’s got a short, but impressive, track record of Jameis Winston-vision: bulls eye focused on the field, Stevie Wonder blind off it.

Elliott also wasn’t wrong for criticizing the play calling in the Michigan State game. Urban Meyer admitted as much. In the 24 games since Elliott became the primary back for the Buckeyes following Week 3 of the 2014 season, he’s reached 100 yards rushing in 20 of 24 games. The Buckeyes have never lost when Elliott rushes for 100 or more yards.

This is not to say that Notre Dame is doomed to fail. Jaylon Smith and Sheldon Day are both 2015 All-Americans whereas the Ohio State defense, despite all of its team accolades boasts none. The suspension of defensive tackle Adolphus Washington following an arrest for solicitation certainly harms the Buckeye unit as well. Romeo Okwara’s second half of the season has been the best display of pass rushing by an Irish player since Stephon Tuitt’s departure several seasons ago.

However, going much deeper into the personnel game will not improve your optimism. Ohio State has an NFL caliber player at virtually every position led by a strong candidate for number one overall selection (should he elect to forgo remaining college eligibility) in Joey Bosa. Linebackers Darron Lee and Joshua Perry, cornerback Eli Apple, and safety Vonn Bell provide the Buckeyes an embarrassment of talent. You want to make an argument that Jaylon Smith and Sheldon Day are 2 of the 3 best defenders that will play in the Fiesta Bowl, I’m willing to listen. The problem is that Ohio State probably has numbers 4-10 regardless of the order you eventually decide upon.

So, aside from the “inspired performance” angle or the “Ohio State doesn’t want to be here” angle, what can Irish fans rest some hope on when comparing the defenses? Let’s start with the Ezekiel Elliott part of the story.

There’s no question that Elliott is an immensely talented runner who will almost assuredly end up as either the first or second back off the board in next year’s draft. He’s a physical, dominating back who gets better as the game goes on. However, he’s hardly the first dynamic game changing player the Irish will have seen this season. Elliott finished 8th in Heisman voting a couple of weeks ago. If you’re willing to include last year’s Music City Bowl game versus LSU, the Irish defense has faced 4 of the 7 players that finished ahead of Elliott in roughly a year’s time (Christian McCaffrey, Deshaun Watson, Keenan Reynolds, and Leonard Fournette).

The bright side is that in all three games that occurred this season, the Irish defense did a pretty good job of limiting the damage of these game breakers. Neither Reynolds nor McCaffrey found his way to the endzone, and Watson had (monsoooooooooon?) depressed numbers. Fournette, who from a physical and style standpoint, is most similar to Elliott was a different story versus the infirmary defense that was left standing at the end of last season. The key point though is that VanGorder and these Irish players should be well accustomed to preparing and accounting for elite level offensive players. They are battle tested versus the best players college football has to offer, which gets to my second reason for optimism….

While Ohio State will be the 5th opponent Notre Dame’s faced who ranks in the top 30 offensively in points per game, Notre Dame will be just the third such opponent for the Buckeyes. But, it’s not just the points per game piece but the type of team. The other two opponents ranking in the top 30 on the Buckeyes schedule are Indiana and Western Michigan – Two teams who’ve had nice offensive years but are always vulnerable to physical disadvantages that are exposed when facing teams that recruit at a much different level. By contrast, the 4 teams Notre Dame has already seen this season who match the same offensive criteria are Clemson, Stanford, USC, and Navy. The first 3 all being teams that recruit at a higher level than either an Indiana or a Western Michigan.

The Irish will easily be the most dynamic, explosive, and efficient offense the Buckeyes have seen all season. Notre Dame’s 6.9 yards per play offensively for the season is 5th nationally. You have to go all the way down to 33rd nationally to find Indiana which is the top Power 5 team Ohio State’s previously seen. Stanford and Clemson both rank higher than Ohio State on a yards per play basis. Sure, you can’t ignore the relative ease with which Stanford moved the ball versus Notre Dame, but at least the Irish defense has been exposed to an elite offense more recently than Ohio State’s squad.

And, it’s not just that Notre Dame’s seen more high end teams, but also consider that just 2 of Notre Dame’s opponents (Boston College and Wake Forest) ranked lower than 80th nationally in yards per play. By contrast, an astounding 8 of Ohio State’s opponents ranked 80th or worse. Let me re-state that an even more compelling way: Ohio State’s played just 4 teams all year that rank in the top 80 in yards per play offensively…the best of which were Indiana and Western Michigan.

For all the numerical and talent reasons to give a decided edge to Ohio State defensively, there are more than a few reasons to question how substantial the advantage may really be. For an Ohio State team that slept walked through a lot of their season and coasted by on raw talent, Notre Dame will prove to be a different level of challenge. If the Irish can break the Buckeyes defense, they might be able to force the game into a shootout where Notre Dame has a better chance to win outright.

Here’s to (kind of) hoping that maybe both defenses will fail.

The post Apples to Oranges: Fiesta Bowl Defensive Preview appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

Instead, today seems like a good moment to pause and consider an aspect of last year’s defense that went wrong – the team’s inability to sack the opposing quarterback. If we’re being honest, it’s now been a problem in back to back years after the defense was fairly successful during the National Title Game run in 2012. It seems like an eternity ago that Stephon Tuitt, Ishaq Williams, and Aaron Lynch committed in one class to Notre Dame. At least part of the issue is that it seems like virtually no names have emerged along the defensive line since then.

That sentence is not intended to diminish the quality careers of players like Sheldon Day and Jarron Jones, but let’s be clear about something else: Those two combined for a total of 2 sacks last season. Romeo Okwara led the team with 4.0 sacks. Consider this: Utah’s Nate Orchard had 4.0 sacks just versus UCLA on October 4^th. Tuitt’s 2012 season when he notched 12.5 was the last Irish player to reach double digits in sacks during a single season. At the present, it’s difficult to be optimistic that 2015 will put an end to the sack drought. The issue is if Notre Dame wants to take a leap forward, the sack rate’s got to improve. Significantly.

I’m burying the lede here, and perhaps it’s intentional given that my general position is simple and straightforward: sacks, and more specifically sack rate is a strong component indicator of defensive health. The last two years, Notre Dame just hasn’t stacked up. But, I wanted to provide some insight into just what sack rate can mean as an indicator of defensive health.

First, let me quickly define “sack rate.” While some analysts and sites like to focus on “sacks per game,” the issue I have with this statistic is it’s fundamentally context and opponent dependent. Notre Dame’s 2015 schedule includes match-ups with Navy, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Pitt. Those 4 teams ranked 117 or lower (of 128 top tier teams) in pass play percentage. The opportunities to sack a quarterback, in terms of the sheer volume of passing snaps, is not likely to be high for the Irish defense next season.

What sack rate does is helps quantify how good a defense was at sacking the opposing quarterback when a passing play actually occurred. In a given season, the very best defenses will sack the opposing quarterback somewhere between 10-12% of pass drop backs. The very worst will do so in the 1-2% range.

Last season, Notre Dame finished 69^th (putting them slightly below average) at 5.92%. 2013 was even worse when the Irish finished 85^th nationally at 4.90%. This comes as no shock to all Notre Dame fans that quarterback pressure and sacks has been an area of serious concern for several years running now. I wanted to know whether sack pressure did in fact correlate to good defense. Yes, yes, I’m with all of you who are already yelling at your computer screen MOONS, OF COURSE IT DOES YOU IDIOT. That’s fine. There’s no need to yell. But saying “of course” and knowing the “of course” are two different things. Let’s consider the Top 20 and Bottom 10 teams by sack percentage last year:

Points Per Game Allowed: As a general rule, the twenty best at sack percentage were also among the best at suppressing opponent points. 60% of the top twenty (that’s 12 teams for the percentage disinclined) also found their way into the Top 35 teams in the country in fewest points allowed per game. Interestingly though, 2 of the 8 teams from the Top 20 not among the 35 best in points allowed was the number one team in sack percentage, Utah, and the number three team Louisiana-Monroe. The teams that were least successful at converting sack percentage to points per game allowed success came from the non-Power 5 conferences. Arizona State was the only Power 5 team with an elite sack percentage rate who did not finish in the Top 50 in points per game allowed.

Among the ten teams with the worst sack rate, there was one major outlier – Notre Dame’s bowl opponent LSU. LSU, shockingly enough, was just 119^th nationally in sack percentage yet finished 6^th nationally in points per game allowed. LSU’s pass defense overall was still spectacular which goes a long way to explaining this discrepancy. Of the other 9 cellar dwelling teams in sack percentage, the best points per game against rank belonged to known ball hog Navy…at 72^nd nationally.

How did Notre Dame do at converting their 69^th best sack percentage into opposing team points? ND finished 78^th nationally in PPG allowed.

Completion Percentage Allowed: It occurred to me that perhaps sack percentage also served as a shorthand method of diving which teams were better at applying pressure to the quarterback and thus inducing a lower percentage of pass completions. Again, the answer came out that 60% of the sack percentage top 20 finished in the top 35 for lowest completion percentages allowed. More notably, it also included 6 of the top 11 at restricting completion percentage. The PAC-12 teams struggled the most at converting elite sack percentage into lower completion rates. Stanford, Utah, Arizona State, and Washington composed 4 of the 8 elite teams that failed to make the top 35 in completion percentage against. Stanford was the only one of those 4 to even crack the top 50.

In some respects, this makes sense given the extreme pass happy nature of the PAC-12 as currently assembled, although again, we’re considering the teams that were best at sacking QB’s on a per attempt basis. The issue for these teams seems to be if they didn’t get home, they weren’t applying pressure to limit the passing game otherwise. Stanford did an exceptional job at limiting yards on a per attempt basis finishing second in that regard (and thus suggesting that teams dealt with Stanford’s pressure by simply throwing the ball a shorter distance), but the other PAC-12 teams struggled in this regard as well.

The worst at applying pressure were also predictably terrible at curtailing completion percentage. Once we take out LSU who much like Stanford appeared to have teams adjusting to their style of defense by altering routes, the remaining 9 were truly abysmal. 6 of those 9 were in the bottom 10 for completion percentage allowed as well. It’s not surprising but should be startling just how strong the correlation is towards the bottom. If you don’t apply good, consistent pressure, teams will complete their passes against you.

Notre Dame suffered the fate of a team struggling to make it to the opposing QB finishing 86^th in completion percentage allowed.

Third Down Conversions: Where sack percentage really showed was in third down conversion rate. 16 of the top 20 (80%) finished in the top 35 nationally for lowest third down conversion rate. 19 of the 20 (95%) finished in the top 40. Only Rice, once again a non-Power 5 team, did not convert an elite sack percentage into a top 40 third down defense. People love talking about the importance of getting off the field on the third down. Quite simply: there are few if any better indicators of third down defense than sack percentage.

LSU was the only team among the bottom 10 to crack the top 40 (33), but even LSU suffered by not applying the same pressure. For a team that finished 6^th in scoring defense, 3^rd in yards per pass attempt, 12^th in completion percentage against, and did not have a terrible rush defense, a 33^rd ranking, while still quite good, was harmed by the failure to get home.

The best rank any of the other bottom 9 could muster in third down conversion defense belonged to the Fighting Diaco’s of UCONN who finished 82^nd.

Notre Dame, in line with everything else, finished 65^th.

So What Does This Mean?

Well, for starters, that sacking the opposing QB remains probably the single most important skill for a defense to possess and the one that’s really been lacking from Notre Dame’s arsenal since 2012.

The other thing I think is worth considering is that sack percentage is a component statistic that you can watch early in the season to gauge the health of the defense. By the quarter mark or so, if the defense isn’t getting home for sacks, then regardless of what the scoring defense numbers might say to the contrary, there will be reason to worry.

The good new for ND and its fans is that sack percentage does not have a strong year over year carry over except at the very top and bottom. 12 of the top 20 in 2014 were in the top 35 in 2013, but several made huge leaps. Louisiana-Monroe went from 120^th to 3^rd. Wisconsin from 78^th to 6^th. Tennessee from 91^st to 14^th. At the other end of the spectrum, 6 of the worst 10 were ranked 104^th or worst in 2013 as well. Only two (LSU and Eastern Michigan) saw a drop from the top 64 all the way to the bottom 10.

For Notre Dame sitting in the 60’s, I looked at all teams that had a sack percentage rank in the 60’s between 2010 and 2013 and saw how they did the next year. It was very much a crap shoot. 18 teams improved their ranking, 21 teams got worse, and 1 team had the exact same ranking the next season. A team was just as likely to rocket up the rankings by 30 slots (9 teams did this) as it was to drop by 30 or more slots (another 9 did this). Were I to graph out the results, it would look almost exactly like an inverted bell curve.

The point being, teams in the middle do not see a strong causation between one year’s results and the next. The optimists can take this as grounds for drastic improvement. The pessimists can take this to mean the exact opposite, and quite frankly, you’d all be right.

What’s not in debate: Sacks and sack rate are every bit as important as we thought they were. (cue Dennis Green clip here). I’ll talk about expectations of some more defensive players in the weeks to come with a particular eye towards their potential impact on this important improvement need for the Irish in 2015.

The post Sacks: Just as Important as We Thought They Were appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.