Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith (9) leaps over Boston College’s Myles Willis (23) as QB Jeff Smith (5) passes during the second half of the Notre Dame-Boston College NCAA football game on Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015, inside Fenway Park in Boston, Mass. SBT Photo/ROBERT FRANKLIN

The past week has been a trying one for some in Irish land. The release of the most recent college football playoff rankings left many with a bad taste in their mouth as the Irish dropped from 4th to 6th in the new poll. The frustrations stemmed from a variety of sources. A lot of the anger was directed towards Iowa whose pillow fight of a schedule, including their fluffy, airy, defeat of soft-landing spot Purdue propelled the Hawkeyes past the Irish in the wake of the uneven performance against Boston College. Others seemed frustrated that Oklahoma’s narrow escape versus injury devastated TCU continued the Sooner catapult up the rankings. Many Irish faithful continue to struggle with the “common opponent” defeat that Oklahoma was handed by the undermanned Texas Longhorns whom the Irish handled with ease. Then, there was Sparty and Mark D’Anotonio’s ascent. Enough said there. Let’s be honest, most were frustrated by a combination of all three of these things, but in this week of thanks, let’s take a moment to remember that with just two weeks left in the season, the Irish are still firmly in the playoff hunt.

Yeah, Notre Dame could use some help. If you’re so inclined, you might root for:

• Navy versus Houston on 11/27 at 12:00 PM on ABC
• Nebraska versus Iowa on 11/27 at 3:30 PM on ABC
• Penn State versus Michigan State on 11/28 at 3:30 PM on ESPN
• Auburn (for shits and giggles) versus Alabama on 11/28 at 3:30 PM on CBS
• Oklahoma State versus Oklahoma on 11/28 at 8:00 PM on ABC

Also be thankful that Notre Dame has a road contest against a top 10 team. There’s been something hollow about Notre Dame’s resume for most of the season. Having victories against a surprisingly good Navy and Temple is all well and good, but neither qualifies as a “signature win.” I think at least queitly Irish faithful have understood this fact. Irish nation has pointed to overall strength of schedule where the Irish still compare favorably to other teams in the playoff picture buoyed primarily by a lack of games against the worst competition. Irish fans have also pointed to common opponents and having the “best loss” of the one-loss teams in the hunt. However, not many (and wisely so) have been bold enough to say out loud “Hey, the Irish have wins against Navy and Temple.” Having a win versus a name brand, acknowledged power is what the Irish need, and fortunately, what they have left on the schedule. So, be thankful we’re in a year where Notre Dame finishes against Stanford and not USC. Be thankful that Stanford recovered from a disastrous first game on the road. Be thankful the Irish have a Murder Train to match up with the Cardinal’s Heisman hopeful. Most importantly, be thankful the Irish are playing meaningful football in the last week of November. What a difference a year makes!

The When/Where/What Time/Etc.: Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM at historic Stanford Stadium. The history of Stanford Stadium dates all the way back to 2006, and if tradition holds, will have more ND fans in attendance than Trees fans. Those Google internships aren’t going to apply for themselves after all. Fox has the game this week. Pre-game coverage starts at 7 PM with host Rob Stone, studio “analysts” Matt Leinhart and Dave Wannstedt, and special analyst/eye candy/guns so big they’ve been banned in 47 states: Brady Quinn. Your announcing team for the game itself will be Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt, and sideline reporter Molly McGrath.

McGrath’s inclusion is of particular note as she will continue a proud tradition of Notre Dame broadcasts including Boston College graduates. It’s practically community outreach for the Irish at this point to let so many Screaming Eagles fly so close to the sun. Additionally, McGrath has a “zeal for preparation” that just can’t be denied.

Because we’re here to be a one stop shop, your weather report for the game:

The Opposing Coach:  He’s a man who needs no introduction. Even if you did introduce him, he’d find something to complain about. That man is, of course, David Shaw. Shaw’s now in his fifth season as the head coach since taking over for Jim Harbaugh following the 2010 season. In that same time, Harbaugh’s gone to the NFL, lost some playoff games, had a fallout with an organization, bought some khakis, and purchased some amazing old man bifocals.

It’s fair, easy, and in fact encouraged to make fun of Shaw, but he’s also proven to be more than capable of maintaining Stanford as a well-above average football program. Shaw’s career winning percentage sits at 78.5% which is 8th among active coaches – one spot behind Bob Stoops and two spots ahead of Nick Saban.

Shaw’s never met a loss he agreed with. Never met a puppy he found cute enough. And, apparently, up until this year even his own fan base found him to be a boring miserly guy to watch. I’ll take my purple-faced BK everyday of the week.

Stanford’s last game: The Cardinal upended rival Cal in The Big Game 35-22. All everything player Christian McCaffrey set a school record with 389 all-purpose yards which included a 49-yard touchdown reception and a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Stanford led the game 21-6 at halftime before Cal made it interesting in the 3rd quarter with 10 unanswered points to tighten the score at 21-16. However, failure to capitalize on red zone opportunities (that sounds familiar) eventually led to the Golden Bears’ demise. 3 times in the red zone Cal settled for field goal attempts, and those missed opportunities proved too much to overcome.

It was far from a dominant performance by Stanford. Cal had nearly 150 more total yards, more first downs, a better third down conversion percentage, and actually more time of possession. That Cal had more time of possession is somewhat remarkable considering Stanford leads the FBS in time of possession while Cal ranks 74th.

Stanford had a clear plan to ground and pound the Cal defense. Their 12 passing attempts was a season low. The 40 rushing attempts was tied for the second lowest attempt output as well, but it was more than effective. The Cardinal gained 260 yards on the ground (6.5 ypc) with three touchdowns. Combined with McCaffrey’s special teams contributions, it was enough to pull away from a well-below average Cal defense.

Team talent: Like most recent Stanford vintages, they are a team solid top to bottom with enough playmakers to be an uncomfortable match-up on both sides of the ball. What is a bit of a change from previous years is that Stanford’s talent is more consolidated on the offensive side of the ball. 247 Sports Team Composite Rankings puts the Cardinal 18th in current roster talent. In raw recruiting, they have experienced fluctuations year over year in terms of what talent they can get to commit, which many ND fans can commiserate with. On the whole, they are a program that finds a way to recruit well above most programs but the blue-bloods which is no small accomplishment given their academic standards. Since 2011, the Cardinal have out-recruited Notre Dame only once according to 247 Sports’ Composite Rankings, but they are a good notch ahead of previous season opponents like Virginia, Pitt, or Georgia Tech.

Any game plan to beat the Cardinal has to start with containing Christina McCaffrey. McCaffrey, the son of former Stanford receiver Ed, leads the team in rushing yards, receptions, and is the primary kickoff return man. His 1,546 rushing yards ranks second nationally to LSU’s Leonard Fournette. He’s got nearly 600 more all purpose yards than anyone else in college football.

McCaffrey is joined by senior quarterback Kevin Hogan as the unquestioned leaders. Hogan’s averaging only slightly over 200 yards per game passing, but has shown improved decision-making. He’s on pace to set career bests in touchdown passes and interceptions since becoming the starter. His passer rating sits 7th nationally, one spot ahead of Clemson’s DeShaun Watson. Hogan’s more of a “game manager” than a “play maker,” and ND has seen first hand that he can be susceptible to throwing some pretty poor passes. The question will be how KeiVarae Russell’s absense impacts what was already a thin secondary.

The defense has less dynamic playmakers than years past. Junior linebacker Mike Tyler leads the team with just 4.5 sacks. Last season, the Cardinal defense ranked 7th nationally causing a sack on 9.33% of all quarterback drop backs. The percentage has dropped nearly in half to 5.74% which is just 67th nationally. Senior linebacker Blake Martinez is the glue for the defense. His 108 total tackles leads the Pac-12 and is 14th nationally.

The secondary’s playmaker is Ronnie Harris who is among the conference leaders in both passes defended and passes broken up. No player on the team has more than 2 interceptions.

Trends/thoughts/stats:

• The winner of this game receives the Legends Trophy. Notre Dame leads the all-time series against Stanford 19-10.
• This will mark the 5th straight meeting between the Irish and the Cardinal where both teams have been ranked at the time of the match-up. No match-up has featured the Irish and Stanford combined to be ranked higher than they are this year. They have never faced off in the Brian Kelly era with neither team ranked.
• Christian McCaffrey’s received at least 15 carries in every game this season except one. That one game was Stanford’s 16-6 loss to start the season at Northwestern when he saw just 12 carries for less than 70 yards. Interestingly, McCaffrey’s season high in carries (33) came in Stanford’s other loss of the season against Oregon.
• All about them red zone attempts, y’all. Stanford’s allowed opponents to score (TD + FG) on slightly over 89% of all red zone attempts this season, which is 105th nationally. This is driven by an oddity in college football where the Trees have not gotten the benefit of #collegekickers. 43% of all red zone attempts against Stanford have resulted in a successful field goal attempt which is the 4th highest rate nationally. At the same time, the Cardinal are allowing a touchdown on red zone possessions 46% of the time which sits 18th. On the other side, Notre Dame’s offense, which should not come as much of a surprise after the BC game, is ranked 96th in red scoring percentage (78.26%). 58.7% of attempts have resulted in touchdowns which is 77th in the country. The net result is that Saturday features a movable object facing a stoppable force. As noted above, Stanford didn’t stop Cal’s offense, but they did force them to settle for field goal attempts on 3 red zone attempts. These failures doomed the Golden Bears and will likely lead to a similar fate for the Irish if they can’t improve in this area.
• Key Third Downs: The elite match-up of the game will happen between the Irish defense and the Cardinal offense on third downs. The Irish rank 8th nationally in preventing opponents from converting third downs. Season to date, the Irish have only allowed 30.57% of all third downs to be converted. This efficiency goes a long way in explaining why many of the cumulative defensive metrics like the Irish defense more than the fan base has. Stanford’s offense has been equally good at converting third downs. The Cardinal are the 5th best offense nationally at keeping the chains moving on third down (49.66%). This is a game that lacks a ball hawking defense on either side. Both Notre Dame and Stanford rank in the bottom 25 nationally in takeways per game. Stanford averages less than one takeaway per game. Recency bias aside, both sides are also okay at avoiding giveaways as well. The combination of these factors makes this game one where the “turn over battle” may not be as important as the “third down battle.” Whichever side is more effective at leveraging their strength on third downs will have a decided advantage in this contest.
• Offensive Efficiency: Both the Irish and the Cardinal rank in the Top 20 nationally in yards per play. Both have remarkably balanced offenses in production. Stanford ranks 19th in yards per play (6.3). Their 5.2 yards per carry rushing is 18th as is their 8.8 yards per pass attempt. I’ve used a lot of words to discuss McCaffrey’s value, but despite all of that, Notre Dame is even better than Stanford at rushing. The Irish offense rankings on a per play basis:
  • Overall – 7th (6.8 YPP)
  • Rushing – 9th (5.5 yards per carry)
  • Passing – 16th (8.9 yards

The post Game Preview: ND v. Stanford – Going Out on a Limb appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

The When/Where/What Time/Etc: Amazingly this will mark the final game in South Bend for the season. If you’re making the voyage to South Bend, HLS’ student insider, Grantland-X, told you on Wednesday how you should be l-i-v-i-n. If you’re not making the trip, the game airs at 3:30 PM on NBC. I’ve seen no reports of Hammond, so the normal staff would seem to be in place. Already looking forward to the 2016 return of Tom Hammond and Pat Haden in the booth with special sideline reporter Mike Mayock. All throwback e’ry thing. If your remote finger gets kind of itchy, Clemson, Alabama, and Oklahoma State all play at 3:30 as well. Clemson will quite literally be in an Orange off with Syracuse. Oklahoma State plays Iowa State in its final road contest of the year. In one of only three match-ups on the day that pits ranked teams versus one another, Alabama faces totally-being-ignored-but-secretly-quite-dangerous Mississippi State. That’s the game on CBS, so your opinion of Gary and Vern will go a long way to deciding how palatable that match-up is.

The Opposing Coach:  The man under the head set is Dave Clawson, now in his second season as the Deacons’ head coach. This is a difficult job under the best of circumstances. Competing with slightly rejuvenated programs in state with UNC and Duke has not made things any easier. Clawson’s first season finished 3-9. So far this season Wake’s trudged its way to a 3-6 record. The “highlight” being a shutout win over Boston College 3-0. Clawson’s resume has come primarily on the offensive side of the ball and even spent part of Phil Fullmer’s final season in Knoxville as the UT offensive coordinator. From 2009-13 he was Bowling Green’s head coach. The jury’s still out on whether he can be a program builder at a school like Wake. Even making them a team that hovers around .500 would be an accomplishment. Not a lot else to say about him.

Wake’s Last Game: The pessimists and worriers of the world will be concerned that the Demon Deacons are most recently off a (dramatic music and lighting cracks) BYE WEEK…..Err merrr gawwwdd…a BYE Week! Probably the best news for Wake Forest about that is the bye week did not force any fumbles. The Friday before Halloween was nothing short of a nightmare for them. You’d think with your mascot essentially being a Halloween character that perhaps they’d play more inspired, but those in attendance saw a turnover massacre!!! Wake Forest turned the ball over 5 times and gained just 266 total yards of offense en route to a painfully close 20-19 loss to Louisville. For a point of reference, DeShone Kizer has accounted for more total yards alone in 4 of his 7 starts. Wake, at points, led 10-0 in the first half, and 19-10 in the third quarter, but if you can’t hold onto the ball, you’re generally gonna lose. Let me drop some #sportsmath on y’all: If you lose the turnover battle by a -4 margin, it’s really tough to win. Wake Forest now ranks 124th in turnover margin per game on average surrendering 1.5 more turnovers than they create per game!! The Bye week can’t do a lot of good if all that’s left to coach are the shattered remains of a football team.

Team Talent:  Wake Forest and next week’s opponent, Boston College, have very similar 5 year averages on recruiting scores. They’re a decent notch up from the likes of Temple, Navy, and UMass, but not on the same level as even a Georgia Tech or a Pitt. 247 Sports Team Talent Composite Rankings agrees registering Wake Forest at 71st nationally. Part of their issue is a  heavy reliance on very young players. Wake’s three leading rushers are all freshmen. Their most prolific is freshman quarterback Kendall Hinton who’s averaging about 10 attempts per game and ranks just 20th in the ACC in individual player rushing. The other quarterback receiving playing time, John Wolford, is just a sophomore. They do not have a single defensive player who ranks in the Top 19 in the ACC in tackles for loss, sacks, or interceptions. Quite simply, there’s very little big play making ability on this squad. As opposed to teams like Navy or this year’s Temple that are out playing their recruiting, Wake has frequently looked like an under-talented team.

Trends/Thoughts/Stats:

• The Vegas line is 27 points in this one. Gonna keep banging the “dominant wins” drum, but Notre Dame’s being treated like an elite team, and they need to put up some final scores reminiscent of one. The Playoff Committee likes ND well enough, but anything that looks even remotely spotty in these next two match-ups could change the “eye test” perception enough to knock ND out of the cat-bird’s seat. I say this not because I know how the playoff committee thinks. I say this because no one knows what this committee is thinking, and with the Big-12 teams getting an opportunity to put some quality wins on their resume, Notre Dame needs to keep pace versus weaker competition.
• To bolster my point above about Wake Forest not having big playmakers, they currently sit 122nd in takeaways/game versus FBS competition. Their turnover margin issue is more than coughing the ball up. Their defense lacks big play guys. They’ve created just 3 interceptions all season 2 of the 3 were made by freshmen. Their defense has forced just 5 fumbles all season long.
• Quarterback Pressure!!! – Wake’s defense has 15 sacks this season which is just one less than the Irish’s 16. The bigger difference has come in creating consistent pressure. Wake Forest has been credited for only 18 quarterback hurries on the season compared to Notre Dame’s defense who has now forced 44. Wake Forest’s offense is giving up sacks on 8.97% of their quarterback’s drop backs which ranks 112th nationally. The Irish are probably lower in this regard than people realize as they’re permitting a sack on 6.71% of dropbacks (just 75th nationally), but the difference is the Irish have the defensive front to exploit this mis-match better. Could be another big day for the likes of Sheldon Day and Romeo Okwara.

All and all, this feels like a game won nearly from the outset. While some still feel that Notre Dame’s defense has something to prove to demonstrate they can hang in the playoffs, Football Outsiders advanced metrics have found the Irish to be decent thus far ranking 30th in defensive FEI and 39th in S&P Ratings. I’m not going to try to bother to explain what all those ratings attempt to capture, but these metrics try to go beyond just looking at points surrendered, and funny enoug, they agree with…points surrendered where Notre Dame currently ranks 34th. Match-ups with Wake Forest and Boston College are not only excellent opportunities to bolster some of the underlying numbers, I argue they should bolster those underlying numbers. I’m hoping for a big number. As of the time I’m writing this on Wednesday, I’m thinking maybe a 49-7 Irish victory.

The post Game Preview: ND v. Wake Forest – An Irish Wake for the Deacons appeared first on Her Loyal Sons.

So, will Saturday’s game be a trick…or a treat? Oh, you didn’t come here for painfully bad Halloween jokes? I’m disappointed in you. But ND football’s back, so let’s hug, make up, and start talking about this week’s match-up.

The When/Where/What Time/Etc: And they’re coming…to your Sit-Tay….I hate that song. I’m not sure who is Big and who is Rich, but whichever one is the skinny white guy wearing a rejected redneck pimp costume ranks high (or is it low) on my list of “celebrities” I do not like. I know nothing about him other than his stupid selection in head wear, but man is that decision to wear a top hat obnoxious. If I saw him trotting down the street in my college town followed by a parade of people acting like he’s Ferris Bueller I would do everything in my power to trip him and take that velvety top hat and burn it…safely away from other people because it looks cheap. I HAVE VERY STRONG FEELINGS ABOUT THE GUY IN THE TOP HAT WHO SINGS THE INTRO SONG TO COLLEGE GAMEDAY!! Which reminds me…

What’s up, Philadelphia? pic.twitter.com/bnSsY4j6jt

— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) October 30, 2015

For the second time this season, College Game Day is joining Notre Dame on the road for an 8PM game on ABC. The game will happen at Lincoln Financial Field, current home to future USC/Miami/Other USC/Central Florida/New Mexico State Head Coach Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles. HLS assistant editor Andrewwinn will be there. His name is Jude. Seriously. If you see him, his name is Jude and not Andrew. I can neither confirm nor deny that he is in fact just an NDMSPaint drawing. The best place to run into him will be at the tailgate of HLS’s graphic goddess Philly Kelly. Awhile back Tex and I got her to agree to make the #HLSSelfieStick a thing…now it’s time to see if that’ll be a reality.

The Opposing Coach:  Matt Rhule is now in his third season as Temple’s head coach. Rhule took over at the beginning of 2013 when former ND assistant coach Steve Addazio left to take the Boston College job. We’ll discuss him more a few weeks from now. Rhule came to Temple in 2006 when Al Golden was hired as head coach. He ascended through the assistant positions during Golden’s time, spending the last three seasons as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. After a one year Stint on Addazio’s staff, Rhule got a taste of the NFL in 2012 as a part of the New York Giants staff. But the sexy allure of Temple’s HC position was too much to resist.  Rhule’s very first game as a head coach was a loss to the Thomas Rees led Irish 28-6. After finishing 2-10 in year one, Rhule’s team showed marked improvement going 6-6 in 2014 which included a road win versus SEC-powerhouse Vanderbilt in the 2014 opener (37-7) and a win versus then #21 East Carolina. Temple’s 7 wins already this year ensures Rhule will have shown progress for a third consecutive season, and the Owl’s appearance in the AP Top 25 is a first since 1979. At just 40 years old, you get the sense this might be his last season at Temple. Rhule was born and raised in State College, PA and played football…at linebacker..at Penn State. His pedigree would seem to make him an attractive candidate to many teams comes season’s end perhaps paving a Golden road back to Temple for Al. I kid..kind of.

Temple’s Last Game: Win over East Carolina 24-14. Temple, as you may have gathered, is located in Pennsylvania. Their proximity to Pitt (who ND will play in a week’s time) probably explains why they got awfully close to pulling a classic Pitt maneuver of doing terribly just before gritting out a gritty grit of a performance versus ND (author’s note: I may be writing this on Thursday evening after watching Pitt go full Pitt). However, in a surprising turn of events, Temple created  turnovers and scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to make the Pirates of East Carolina walk the plank. I know walking the plank seems kinda lame, but that can’t be any lamer than a freaking Pirate in East Carolina. Despite winning by 10, the warning signs for the Owls were all around: Temple had fewer first downs, a worse third down conversion rate, less time of possession, fewer rushing yards, fewer passing yards, and more penalties than East Carolina in the win. This was the second time already this season that Temple needed some breaks and 4th quarter magic to salvage a win. In their third game of the year Temple needed a field goal with just 7 seconds remaining to turn a loss into a win over UMass.

Team Talent:  We here at HLS are a big fan of team work. Turns out, Bayou was so dang excited about talking talent that he spent a whole lot of words (and one Paris Hilton YouTube clip…not thinking of the children) doing just that yesterday. His #SportsMath had Notre Dame as roughly 81% more talented based on aggregate stars from Rivals. Using the 5-year 247 Sports Composite class ranks yields an even greater depth discrepancy as raw recruiting points suggest ND nearly doubles Temple every recruiting cycle. This should come as no great surprise. By talent, Temple is the third worst team ND will face this year (ahead of only UMass and Navy). Their team approach has allowed them to exceed raw roster talent, but on paper, this is the exact type of match-up ND should be able to win simply by applying consistent pressure and exploiting physical advantages.

Trends/Thoughts/Stats:

• Extra Rest: Both teams are coming off of extra rest. Temple’s game versus East Carolina was a Thursday night affair. In 2014, Temple had 4 games where they received 9 or more days between games and went 2-2. However, one of those victories was over FCS opponent Delaware State. The Irish, as you might recall from your time reconnecting with loved ones and family last weekend, are coming off a bye. Excluding Bowl Game layoffs, the Irish are 6-1 under Brian Kelly coming off a bye week.
• 9/13/15: That was the date of Temple’s last game versus an opponent that presently has a winning record. Because I’m not a fraud, I’m comfortable acknowledging this statistic is manipulated a bit given that East Carolina sits at 4-4 and was 4-3 at the time Temple played them last weekend. Temple’s only win versus a team better than a game over .500 was their opener versus a mediocre Penn State. Penn State may sit at 6-2, but they’ve played just 2 teams with a winning record and lost both games. Doing some quick research, no one’s impressed with Temple’s schedule – College Football Reference has their SOS as 105/128 teams. Team Rankings currently has theirs at 83rd. Prediction Machine has it at 108th, and Sagarin is the low man rating Temple’s schedule 111th nationally. This isn’t meant to take anything away from what Matt Rhule and the Owls have accomplished. However, there’s not a lot to fear here either. This is a massive shift in team talent that Temple is about to see.
• Dominant Wins: I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but BCF Toys Massey index says that Elite teams (the teams really in the hunt for a National Title) win games versus all FBS opponents by 25+ points 45% of the time. That means ND needs 5 such wins this season to “look” like an Elite team. Assuming they’re not likely to get one of those types of wins versus a solid Stanford team on the road, Notre Dame needs to have 3 such wins in their next 4 games to stay on pace. While this will be the last ranked team ND plays prior to Stanford, it may also be a better shot to get a dominant win than at Pitt next week. With that in mind, I’m going to call for ND to win and win big. I think this team is Elite or very close to it. They’re not flawlesss, but they’re in the part of the schedule that was always circled as their time to get healthy. Temple’s been flirting with a disaster for weeks. It might finally be here.

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