Jack Nolan was hosting his regular post-game show after Notre Dame’s ugly 17-13 win over Michigan State in September 2013 when some Irish fans began tweeting and e-mailing him about a potential change at quarterback.
Tommy Rees, that day’s starter, had completed just 14 of his 34 passes for 142 yards and one touchdown. He hadn’t thrown an interception – at least not this day – but some commenters were wondering aloud of if it wasn’t time to give backup Andrew Hendrix more snaps.
“If you’re not running up 30 point wins, the most popular QB on the team is the guy not playing,” said Nolan. “Because automatically, he’s better.”
Nolan’s traditional position when this issue is raised is to rebuff this “armchair” analysis and trust the coaching staff. In the case of Hendrix – who later struggled against USC in Rees’ absence – the host’s position seemed justifiable.
But fast forward one year. Everett Golson, who won 18 of his first 20 collegiate starts, had exhibited trouble protecting the football in the second half of the season. Fans’ calls for backup Malik Zaire intensified until coach Brian Kelly finally pulled Golson in the final regular season game.
Zaire did not disappoint, scoring a touchdown on his first drive and emboldening those who had called for Golson’s ouster far earlier. Zaire turned in an equally solid performance after being named the starter for Notre Dame’s bowl game, during which he split time with Golson.
Kelly has not named a starter for this fall’s opener against Texas, but many Irish fans are offering their opinions – with the most vocal on Twitter favoring Zaire. Here’s a sample:
Watching the ND Spring Game and if Malik Zaire isn't the starter next season I question whether Brian Kelly actually wants to win games!
— James Kaliszewski (@djslimjim) April 18, 2015
Golson has his supporters as well…
Zaire is nice, but Golson needs to be ND's starting quarterback. #Irish
— Chris Whelan (@CMW_561) April 18, 2015
…while others like to think outside the usual constraints of a single-QB system.
Not a fan of the 2 QB system but wouldn't mind starting Golson but in certain red zone situations let Zaire get some work.
— ??♂️ (@boxmannn1) April 19, 2015
Finally, there are those still sore about the one that got away.
Really wish notre dame still had gunner kiel, definitely outplaying Everett by a lot this year
— Collin Morrow (@morrow_44) December 27, 2014
For my part, I’ve tended to advocate for Golson to start. This is largely a function of a greater sample size. I’ve seen Golson struggle with turnovers, certainly. Zaire represents great potential, but possibly great struggle.
The fact is: Malik Zaire has taken 103 snaps under center for Notre Dame. How much can you possibly know about a quarterback with a sample size of 103 snaps?
Yes, I’m asking you.
Here are the first 103 snaps for six recent Notre Dame quarterbacks: Brady Quinn, Jimmy Clausen, Dayne Crist, Tommy Rees, Everett Golson and Malik Zaire. While I’ve put them in chronological order in naming them, I’m going to randomize them for purposes of this exercise.
Quarterback | Plays | Yards gained | |||
Run | Pass | From run | From pass | Total | |
QB1 | 35 | 68 | 140 | 360 | 500 |
QB2 | 37 | 66 | 151 | 413 | 564 |
QB3 | 52 | 51 | -23 | 261 | 238 |
QB4 | 56 | 47 | 266 | 427 | 693 |
QB5 | 69 | 34 | 418 | 266 | 684 |
QB6 | 72 | 31 | 393 | 214 | 607 |
So…who do you like? Who is going to have a successful career at Notre Dame – or is perhaps building one – and who is going to be a disappointment?
If you’re only studying the information I’ve given you – and not researching it yourself – I’d imagine you’re hard pressed to come up with a good answer.
So let’s start at the top:
QB1 is Brady Quinn. While Quinn would go on to set 36 team records during his career at Notre Dame – including most attempts, completions, yards per game and touchdown passes – he entered his freshman season as Carlyle Holliday’s backup. He saw significant playing time against Michigan in the second game of the 2003 season, where he threw one of the ugliest interceptions ever in a blowout loss. Quinn would notch his first career start versus Purdue after splitting time with Holliday in the Michigan State game. Both were losses.
QB2 is Tommy Rees. Dayne Crist was shaken up after driving his Irish team down the field to take a 7-0 lead on Michigan. Rees, his backup, came in and threw a pick on the second play from scrimmage. #TommyNo was officially born. Rees gave way to Nate Montana before Crist returned and almost lead the team to victory. Rees played late in a win against Western Michigan and a loss to Navy, but saw his playing time increase significantly when Crist was sidelined in the Tulsa game. Tommy would throw three picks in that game, including the one that sealed a Golden Hurricane victory.
QB3 is Jimmy Clausen. Despite leaving the university after his junior season, Clausen finished his college career “ranked first or second in 32 passing categories, including first with a 62.61 completion percentage, tied for first with a 2.43 interception percentage and second in passing yards and touchdown passes.” [1] Clausen ran the most balanced attack (52 runs, 51 passes), but awful offensive line play often had left him scrambling to avoid sacks. His first 103 snaps were the worst of the six we surveyed.
QB4 is Everett Golson and QB5 is Malik Zaire. Look at the data. Golson’s rushing yards (266) is the exact same number as Zaire’s passing yards. Brian Kelly was a bit more run-focused in Zaire’s first 103 snaps, although that is partially due to the fact that Zaire’s snaps came in mop up time before LSU – and Golson was a starter in 2012.
QB6 is Dayne Crist. Crist’s 103-snap sample is the most run-focused, due in part to his “mop-up” role in games versus Nevada, Michigan State and Washington State in 2009. The team was effective when he was under center, however, and his total yardage is third best among those we sampled.
So to recap: Quinn & Clausen, the Irish’s two best quarterbacks in the last 15 years, had the worst 103-snap starts. Zaire’s figures so far are shockingly similar to Golson’s first 103 snaps – albeit with rushing and passing reversed.
Now that you’ve seen the data, I’d like to hear the argument for Malik Zaire being named the starter. What doesn’t the data show that is important when evaluating who is the best quarterback?
Thanks to Moons & NDTex for their help compiling data and offering advice.
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Moons
My guess is the argument for Zaire will not be based on the 103 snaps they’ve seen from Zaire but rather from the 1,000+ they’ve seen from Golson. The sample on Golson is large enough to at least draw the conclusion that he’s….got consistency issues.
It’s not that Zaire’s 103 is overly telling, but since that includes a win over LSU and 0 turnovers, folks will gamble on the unknown promise to the “known” inconsistency. Whether this is smart logic remains to be seen.
Bayou Irish
I’m mostly fascinated by the discrepancy in relative head sizes. Clausen’s noggin is frame-fillingly enormous, whereas both Zaire and Golson, one assumes, must wear helmets that one would expect to see at the American Girl store. You also see a clear decline in head size from Quinn to Zaire. I’m surprised that none of this made your analysis, to be honest, but maybe you’re holding back for part two.
Irish Elvis
I ignored all your table stats and chose the 2 (QB4 & QB5) with the most yardage. Since those are both on our current roster, I feel more qualified than the coaching staff MOVE OVER TEX ELVIS IS CALLING PLAYS NOW