Comments on: Examining Notre Dame’s Offensive Efficiency

By: NDtex

NDtex — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 22:53:35 +0000

In reply to trey. I should definitely do a chart of the the opposing offensive efficient. Those numbers would be fun to look at.

By: trey

trey — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 21:38:50 +0000

In reply to NDtex. No, not that at all. As usual, you're insight is astounding and enlightened. Im just saying that trying to argue that offensive efficiency is the biggest contributor to success is flawed. That's why we are in the boat we currently sit, because the amateurs at the WWL think the best offense means best team.

By: Kegs

Kegs — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 20:13:41 +0000

Great stuff.
As far as 0.0875 being an “absurd mark to hit” or a “perfect game,” this year’s golden standard for offense, Oregon, has a season average of about 0.0910. Indeed, their offense is absurd, but this is what we’re going up against in perception as we jockey for human poll votes. Kansas State appears to be about 0.902. I agree with the above comments about grading on a per-possession basis, as they may make our stats more comparable. The fact remains, we could sure use a blowout of Wake. A victory at USC is all we can hope for.

By: Grantland-X

Grantland-X — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:53:14 +0000

In reply to trey.

I don’t know if I would describe it as a “useless” stat — I mean Kelly himself referenced it as very important to him. Does it not tell the entire story for the Notre Dame team this season? Absolutely, but our defense is #1 in the country, and an outlier compared to college football teams in general. That masks a lot of problems that really do exist on the offensive side of the ball, in the same way Oregon’s offensive efficiency likely hides some real defensive shortcomings.

By: NDtex

NDtex — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:48:15 +0000

In reply to Big Red. I'll keep this in mind. I'm off work next week and have a lot of free time on my hands to do research.

By: Big Red

Big Red — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:26:22 +0000

In reply to Tim. This. Would love to see how ND compares efficiency-wise to its fellow contenders.

By: NDtex

NDtex — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 16:22:23 +0000

In reply to trey. I created a terrible metric? :( /kicks rocks

By: Beej

Beej — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 16:17:01 +0000

Great read. I was looking at Football Outsiders just this morning – FEI Offensive Stats. Based on their calcs, Our Raw Offensive Efficiency (the unadjusted efficiency of the given team’s offense, a measure of its actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position) ranks 54th in the nation, or slightly above average. HOWEVER, once adjusted for opponents’ defensive efficiency, we rise to SIXTH IN THE NATION. This blew me away. Through all the trials and tribulations you note above, this seems to suggest that our offense is considerably underrated, if not the most underrated offense out there. Other stats that jumped out at me: 23% of our drives are considered “methodical”, which means they last for 10 plays or longer, which ranks 5th in the nation. The strength of schedule our offense has faced thus far ranks 2nd in the land. And finally, our “Value Drives” percentage, the percentage of each offense’s drives beginning on its own side of the field that reach at least the opponent’s 30-yard line, is 48%, good for 28th in the nation. Looking ahead to SC (so sue me), we’ll be facing the 34th ranked (opponent strength adjusted) defense, considerably behind the likes of Michigan State (3), Stanford (4), Oklahoma (12), BYU (13), the list goes on. Wake’s D ranks 43rd. Go Irish.

By: trey

trey — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 14:19:42 +0000

What this data tells me is that Offensive Efficiency is a terrible metric to use when gauging final success and that the pollsters are(as we all pretty much knew already) morons for simply picking the best two offenses and ranking them 1/2 in the polls. I jump directly to two data points, fMich and Fredo: only a .01 difference in efficiency score yet produced decidedly different results outside of the W. Were you nearly as nervous last week as we were against the Skunks? Were you biting your fingernails expecting Chase Rettig to catch fire and light up our defense? Of course not. It was a nice and comfortable win on the road. Juxtapose that with the nerves we had facing Shoelaceless in almost an identical scenario. It doesnt matter how efficient your offense is, what matters is that you control the game youre in for each opponent. Same point can be made for the PU game compared to these two. This measure is useless in determining the final strength of the team.

By: Davie Dave 40

Davie Dave 40 — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 14:05:53 +0000

Along with Tim’s comment, any thought to adding time of posession into all of this. If my math and sources are correct, ND leads the country in TOP. I think holding on to the ball and grinding down to the red zone and getting 6 is pretty big deal.