This is going to be one of the recurring features that I will be coming out with every few weeks in the fall. The premise is simple: What is the “temperature” of the football team in the eyes of the students? In other words, how is the student body feeling about the team’s ability (to win) moving forward? I will be using my super-secret GrantlandX sleuthing skills to determine the campus’ “temperature”.
It is interesting taking the temperature before the season because you always assume that expectations are going to be sky high, particularly at Notre Dame. You have a clean slate ahead of you and the hype and promise around new players should already be starting to marinate. Championship predictions should be thrown out by students like confetti. But I really wouldn’t say that is the case this year. While normally campus would be affected with Notre Dame Football Fever, it would be safe to currently classify the students as lukewarm at best.
The most obvious reason for the lukewarm-ness right now is the lack of resolution at the QB spot. If there is one thing any sports fan fears, it is lack of direction for their team. And when your team can’t point to any one guy at the quarterback position that is ready to take over and lead, you are certainly perceived as lacking direction. Deciding on a quarterback is the first step into raising win expectations among the fan base. And the truth is, it doesn’t even matter who takes ownership of that spot. For example, I strongly endorse Tommy Rees for starting quarterback. But if he were not chosen to start, I would assume that is because another guy took his game to another level and is capable of playing better football than Tommy, plain and simple. Once a guy is decided upon, fans stop viewing his negatives (why another guy should start over him) and start focusing on what positives the starter can bring to the table.
But there is more to the tempered expectations this year than just an unresolved quarterback position, although that certainly carries tremendous weight. While this is a “good problem to have” in college football, Notre Dame just lost 8 players to the NFL (although most of them left after exhausting all of their eligibility). Notably, both starting corners, a first-round safety, and the tremendous, All-American Michael Floyd. These are tough losses to swallow, particularly Floyd when quarterback is one of your biggest question marks. The fact that we don’t have a lot of heir apparents waiting in the wings at a lot of these positions (cough CB and WR cough cough) and will be relying on many inexperienced, young players really contributes to tempered expectations.
It doesn’t help that Notre Dame is also playing a ridiculously hard schedule this year either. With true road games against USC (led by senior Matt Barkley) and Oklahoma (led by senior Landry Jones) as well as our typical not-so-easy run of games that includes Michigan (senior Denard Robinson…see a trend?), Michigan State, Pitt, BYU, Stanford, and more, the Irish would be tested no matter how good of a team they return.
Finally, the jury is still out on our Head Coach, Brian Kelly. Obviously, Notre Dame fans have been driven absolutely insane by the coaching carousel we have been subject to over the last 15 years. But at least with previous coaches, particularly Weis and Willingham, (sorry, sorry, I shouldn’t have brought them up) Notre Dame got off to torrid starts that made the fan base buy in right away (although those bubbles burst ferociously later). With Kelly, that hasn’t been the case. While it SEEMS like we have improved (the running game, establishing dominant offensive and defensive lines), the records haven’t indicated that yet (8-5 in both of his first two seasons). Coach Kelly has also endured a pretty high number of de-commits and transfers out of the program, and also created a rift between his older and younger players last season. So the fans aren’t sold on Brian Kelly yet. And when fans aren’t sure if they believe in the guy leading the program, the temperature and expectations stay low.
At least at this moment, the students and the general fan base probably have very similar feelings and expectations (which isn’t always the case) for the Irish team this season. Most predictions around campus will center around 8-9 wins, due to all of the reasons listed above. However, I do fully expect expectations to rise once the starting quarterback is named prior to the season, and we start to get our hopes up as we approach everyone’s favorite time of the year. I can’t wait to Test the Temperature for you again in the fall.
Love It/Hate It? Let me know in the comments below, or tweet me @GrantlandX
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Roger
Eight or nine wins, given the strength of schedule, is a fantasy, especially with the unresolved quarterback situation. When a team plays the level of competition ND will face week after week, injuries, attrition, and a general wearing down of the team are inevitable; that’s why schools which compete for BCS berths don’t schedule the way ND does. If the Irish finish above .500 it will be a good year.
canuck75
I’m unashamedly a glass half-full guy. The uncertainty at qb is only because it is about. who is the best choice, not the least worse.
If Tommy survives, he will have outplayed the other two. But I think Kelly is leaning toward EG, who will be great. I can’t wait to watch him break contain and run for 20 on a 3rd and 8 against Michigan!
Plus, even some of the naysayers admit that the O line plus Cierre and GA look pretty good.
Reading between the lines, the players like Kelly and see positive things coming. He deserves credit for his handling of Floyd and development of Harrison.
The schedule is hard, buts its our turn to surprise a couple of teams.
Pat
We’ll know after the first month. We’ll start 2-0, but then will be tested with the Michigans. If we can at least split there, I think we can win 8, maybe pull off 9. (Win both and we’ll all be on top of the world.) I would consider that a successful year.
Jim Blase
Oh my goodness. You strongly endorse Tommy Rees?
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE go back and watch the first half of the Stanford game from last season. I almost puke, everytime I watch it, Rees’ play is so disturbing.
And the guy has WAY MORE PLAYING EXPERIENCE than the other two QBs, yet looked way worse than them, in the scrimmage.
At Cincy Kelly went UNDEFEATED using several QBs. So settling on one, now, is the only route to go??
Go back to the 1987 season if you want to see what will happen in 2012, and beyond. Hendrix will be declared the starter, but a few games into the season Golson (see Tony Rice) will take over, and we go from there.
Irish Eyes in SD
Yes, the temperature was much higher the last two years in late summer. No doubt it will be again this year. ND students, alums, and fans are always too optimistic, IMO. We’re going to start hearing talk of 10 or 11 wins this year with someone as dynamic as Golson at QB, or someone as smart as Hendrix taking the snaps, or someone like Rees who will have more than 20 starts under his belt.
The truth is, ND has been on the under side of the over/under for total projected regular season wins. In 2010, Vegas predicted 8 regular season wins and we got 7. Last year, Vegas predicted 9 regular season wins and we got 8. I have not seen futures odds posted for the 2012 season, but I imagine with our brutal schedule and breaking in a first year starter, it will be 7 or 8 wins. If we split between UM & MSU (likely I would say at this point), split between Miami and Stanford, and look at what can be considered likely losses @ Okla and @ USC, and you are 8-4. God knows we have lost to some suspect teams over the last few years (UCONN, Tulsa, Navy, Syracuse, to name a few) and why should we think we are not going to have one slip up this year?
I am an alum and want the Irish to win as much as the rest of you, but I would suggest everyone put their money on the under. It’s been a winner in Vegas the last few years and odds are it will be again.
a68domer
BK had better choose his starting QB soonest! The guy needs many reps and continuity/confidence working with the No. 1s. I agree with Canuck75, EG should probably take the reins – his ability to throw on the run with just a flick-of-the-wrist is AWESOME! TR has plateaued and Hendrix is in the TR mold only more mobile.
GO IRISH!!
Mark G.
Interesting take, Grantland. Thanks. Always great to hear the buzz (or in this case, lack of buzz) on campus.
As much as I do not want to admit it, and do not like it, I am afraid that this is what rebuilding looks and feels like. A rebuilding project that will come up with something built to last has to start with the unglamorous stuff — stength and conditioning, O-line, D-line, solid and consistent staff. This is what we have done. I think what Kelly has done is to pour a solid foundation and put the decking on the first floor of the house, and framed out part of the first floor. Not the kind of stuff that gets us all giddy with excitement. Unfortunately, that may mean this year is really the year we finish the framing and start on the roof. We are still a year or so from the finish carpentry. (Having started down this rabbit hole of an analogy, I do not know how to get out.) In other words, this is not the year we arrive – we are still a year or two from that.
There … I’ve said it. As much as I want us to win this year and as much as I think we can beat overrated teams like Michigan, this probably is not the year that ALL the pieces fall into place. A lot of the pieces are there, and we see fleeting sights of what this team and program can look like, but we are maybe only half way to our destination. My Lord, I hope I am wrong. I hope that the youngsters grow up fast and that we get a few breaks and that we are 4-0 heading into the Miami game in Soldier Field. But I am not going to be terribly disappointed as long as I really think we are progressing.
Brad
In college football, each year is a totally new team. This is true even if there are a lot of returning players. In trying to project how a team will do the following season, I’ve always noticed on constant. People always feel more confident about predicting success when ‘glory positions’ return from the previous year, and always under-rate the others.
For example, in 2006 ND returned Brady Quinn, the Shark, Rhema McKnight, etc., and everyone felt very confident about a big-time year. What they forgot was how many lineman graduated. This happens all the time. Skill positions get over-rated, and the big hog-mollies get under-rated.
This team has obvious issues at QB and WR. However, I think we are set to see a great offensive line that can make a lot of those newcomers look a lot better by consistently putting this offense “on schedule” for first downs by consistently giving us that extra yard or two worth of push in the running game that we didn’t see for years, and have started to see over the course of the last year or so. Over the course of a season, consistently getting into 2nd and 4 rather than 2nd and 6, or getting into 3rd and 2 rather than 3rd and 4 can mask a lot of problems at the skill positions.
Similarly, even without Lynch, I think we are set to see the most talented and capable defensive line that the Irish have seen in a decade, if not longer. Our defensive line should control the line of scrimmage in every game we play. Seriously.
In the end, while controlling the trenches and the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball isn’t as flashy a thing to get as excited about as “FLOYD/TATE/SHARK IS GONNA CATCH LIKE 30 FRIGGIN’ TDS THIS YEAR” or something like that, it does make me feel pretty confident and quietly excited that this year we very well could see the best combination of OL and DL talent and play that this team has seen since Holtz was on the sidelines. I mean that very seriously, and if you keep repeating that in your head, it is something to get excited about.
denverirish
I have to disagree that simply naming a QB will raise the temperature. I think many fans are concerned that no one is clearly doing better than Rees after what we saw from Rees last year. If Rees is the starting QB, is it because he has really improved or because Kelly is scared to go with a younger player with more upside who does not always perform as well in practice? Hasn’t Kelly had enough time to get either Hendrix or Golson ready to start? I will be disappointed if Rees is named the starter, and I will expect 2012 to be a very long fall (I will still cheer every week like crazy and hope I am wrong). And I will not think that means Kelly doesn’t know what he is doing. Whether right or wrong, I think the temperature will get much warmer if Hendrix or Golson are named the starter and will get a little colder or stay lukewarm if Rees is the starter.
Whitecoat
Guys, I think this is the year which will tell the tale on Brian Kelly. He has not shown a whole lot for his decision making, both on and off the field, and each of you can pick your several instances I refer to. I will make this prediction. If BK keeps Tommy Rees as 1st string QB after having 2 mediocre years, he really is not our coach for the future.
I also think this schedule in 2012 is too brutal to take any of the teams for granted, starting with Navy in Ireland. We could easily come home from Ireland with egg on our face if we don’t take that Navy team seriously.
Whitecoat ’62
Jim Settle
I believe you nailed this article, but I think I have to disagree with one point, you say once the starting QB is announced that the feelings will shift to a more positive, I truly believe if Tommy Rees is announced as the starter, there will be a lot of grumbling and the fans will be lining up to place Brian Kelly on the chopping block. I’m not sure how many believe he gave Dayne Crist one of the rawest deals in the history of ND football. Either way, GO IRISH!!!
Irish Angst
Eight or nine wins? I thought students had to be intelligent to be admitted to ND. And endorsing Tommy Turnover? Please, we saw how far he’s come in the Spring Game…if nothing changes, nothing changes. Until Swarbrick starts to show some common sense in scheduling, get used to mediocrity in the win-loss record. I love ND football, but I can’t find nine wins on this year’s schedule unless TD Jesus steps off the library and onto the field.
4 horsemen of the apocalypse
Obviously a lot depends on the QB chosen. But the 2012 win total will also depend on the turnovers created by the defense. Even with the loss of Lynch, I think the defense shows some serious fangs this year and generates not only turnovers, but turnovers turning into points. Look for the defense to lead followed by a more conservative offense predicated on A LOT FEWER MISTAKES.
JDriveSthND
“While it seems like we have improved the records don’t indicate it.” What? In the three seasons prior to Kelly’s arrival we were 15-21. That was with Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert, Armando Allen, Robert Hughes and Jonas Gray all on the roster for most or all of that 3 year period. That is an embarrassment of riches at the offensive skill positions, yet we couldn’t win. Charlie had an NFL QB, 2 NFL WR, and 2 NFL TE, but nothing in the trenches on either side of the ball and he couldn’t field a defense.
Kelly has developed our men in the trenches and vastly improved our defense in his 1st two seasons. Defense wins championships, right? And that is why we’ve gone 16-10 the last two seasons, after going 15-21 prior to his arrival. This in spite of the fact that Crist turned out to be an injury-prone bust at QB and we’ve had to play an athletically challenged overachieving true freshman/sophomore in Tommy Rees for the majority of the last two seasons.
Considering what Kelly inherited, particularly at quarterback, I think 16-10 is a job well done. Are there games we should have won? Yes (UM, MSU, Tulsa ’10/USF, UM ’11), but the difference is for the 1st time in ages we have a coach that is capable of winning with the guys he’s got, not just the ideal roster.
JDriveSthND
And in spite of your comment about recruiting defections and transfers, he’s done a bang-up job recruiting, particularly in the trenches, and we’ve given just about as well as we’ve gotten on the transfer front (Jordan Prestwood, Amir Carlisle).
Kelly’s also been good at picking up talented preferred walk-ons that Weis would have ignored in Joe Schmidt (LB), Eamon McOsker (S), and Andre Smith (WR).
TNT65Atlanta
There is one all-pervasive factor that I have noticed and you haven’t mentioned: The present students ( and those over the last 10+ years) haven’t had a NC contender to remember. I believe they are getting used to mediocrity. More’s the pity!
Gary Carson
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