Okay, I’ve had enough of the ND Schedule Bashing. This year proves it beyond anything: ND PLAYS A TOUGH SCHEDULE YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT. That is it. Not debatable.
No DII programs. Very few ‘cakewalks’. Heck, our typical ‘cakewalk’ game is Navy, a perennial bowl team!
Phil Steele came out with his pre-season SOS calculations and ranks ND at 14, compared to the NCAA ranking of 6. To be honest, I think Steele’s methodology is better, but either tells the story: ND is playing a tough schedule in 2011.
If we take a look at both of those lists’ Top 20, and average out the rankings (including only those ranked in the Top 20 of SOS in both methodologies), ND’s SOS average next year is 9. Okay, great. Our schedule is predicted to be more difficult than 111 out of 120 FBS programs. Pretty solid, right? Respectable. Of course.
But how about this: EVERYONE IS CALLING THIS YEAR’S SCHEDULE EASY/MANAGEABLE COMPARED TO THE NORM FOR NOTRE DAME! Our fans, opponents’ fans, ESPN talking heads: “ND has a manageable schedule this year, which should help them get to the BCS.” Sure, sure. Totally easy, very manageable. Boring, even. The 9th most difficult schedule in the freaking LAND? What are we talking about here?
This shows how significantly skewed expectations have become for the Irish program. We are in the Top 7.5% of schedules in terms of difficulty, and fans, pundits, and haters all together deem this schedule ‘easy’ or ‘manageable’. What world is this? How did we get here?
Take this exact same schedule, ranked 9th in SOS, and throw in Oklahoma AND Miami. That’s your 2012-2013 schedules, folks. Think people will still consider it easy/manageable? At this point, I’m guessing yes.
- (Re)Introducing: DANCING LEPRECHAUNS - August 29, 2019
- Ticket Auction: ND vs USC - August 22, 2019
- No Respect! - December 14, 2018
Brad
I think the reason people keep saying this year’s ND schedule will be ‘manageable’ has less to do with overall difficulty and more to do with the perception of two teams. (Don’t get me wrong, people will always hate on our schedule…I have heard Indiana University fans rip our schedule. I’ve just given up on a large portion of those people with respect to the utilization of logic against them.)
I think the reason people keep using that ‘manageable’ word a lot is that the two traditional heavy hitters on ND’s schedule are down and out. I am of course talking about UM and Southern Cal. These two teams are the absolute best on our schedule 9/10 years in a decade. Both still have a ton of talent, and are dangerous teams, but the perception of them has fallen drastically in 2-3 years.
I think for that reason, people are viewing this schedule as ‘manageable’. And I would admit that. It certainly isn’t an easy schedule, but I also don’t think there are any teams on the schedule this year who I will look at and think “Lord we have no chance.”
So I’ll give that to people. Its about perception. The fact is that I fall prey to it too, because I see the Southern Cal game on the schedule and I feel like have a real good shot to beat up on them this year. And yet, history says that they whalloped us almost everytime we played the past decade, and still have a lot of that talent. In reality, they could easily come in with some senior talent and put a pantsing on us by the time that game rolls around. But at this point in time, it doesn’t LOOK too terrifying. Or at least as terrifying as it normally has been over the past few years.
Brad
Please note, Biscuit, that post was merely playing the devil’s advocate, and an introspective view of my own thoughts on the schedule in relation to public perception.
It was not meant to steal or stymie your thunder and fury over assinine talking heads who repeat the same asshat-like, boring, used-like-a-Portuguese-cabin-boy talking points about a famous university and team they likely know nothing about to get their fat bitch asses on tv.
Rage on.
SDI
Agree Brad. We’ve had this discussion before at HLS. I think there are two ways people think of a schedule as tough. 1. More than 1 or 2 games against top notch talent. and/or 2. Quality (but not necessarily top 10) opponents from start to finish on the schedule. If your definition of a difficult schedule is #1 above, you probably won’t give ND much props. It’s the opposite of the SEC where they play 3 or 4 really tough games, and then a whole bunch of patsies. This year with SC and Michigan rebuilding, Stanford is the only probable top 10 team on the schedule, and even they might not be by November. But the flip side of the argument is that there are almost zero cupcakes on ND’s slate–maybe only Vandy or Purdue. Consistent quality opponents present their own challenge in getting up for every single game.
rocket89
You mean Wake Forest not Vanderbilt.
I’m not sure if Wake should be offended or the other way around! HA!
SDI
yes, thanks. Should have actually read the sched before spouting off.
Savage
High-academic private, historically Christian, school in the south that wears black and gold has a decent hoops history, a good baseball program, and is the traditional doormat of a BCS football conference?
Wake and Vandy are totally fungible.
John H.
Brad,
That was a solid observation about USC and UM. That it is it in a nutshell. I have much hope for ND, but if we are down at the start of this year the climb out of the hole we are in will be long and difficult. I will be at the S. Florida game with a Rosary in hand.
The Biscuit
But just because it would’ve been a Top 5 SOS schedule, and is now 14, it’s somehow manageable? You realize that at any other school they’d call 14 Murderous right?
Brendan
In general I agree with you, but the context of the one statement is getting to the BCS. I know we had this conversation a couple years ago, but the basic point is this: if you have 12 pretty good teams that may average out to the same SOS as 4 awesome teams, 4 decent teams, and 4 cupcakes, but the former is a much easier path to get to 2 or fewer losses. I think this is why it’s “managable”, because the goal is the BCS. But, the easy or soft label is completely inappropriate for this year’s or any other year’s schedule. It will be interesting to see what people say about next year’s schedule.
Whiskeyjack
ND’s average (Sagarin) SoS over the last decade is 19.9. I’d bet that’s #1 in the nation.
Would love to know what Steele’s average SoS for ND has been over the same time period.
rocket89
Brad is right in that it has to do with perception, and that UM and USC are considered down from their (usual) elite ways.
Also, I think the post-2000 watering down of everyone’s schedules also makes this ND one seem softer than usual. By “usual” I mean what the schedules used to be like in 1995 and beforehand.
It’s just that so many other teams have watered down their schedules (and we have a little bit) and it creates a situation like 2011 where there aren’t many powerful teams.
A few months ago I would have readily admit that 2011 might be the year that we see our SoS drop into the 40’s or higher. Now that I have Steele telling me teams like Air Force and USF are going to be pretty good, I might rethink that position.
I also think there’s a huge jump nowadays from the top SoS teams. What I mean is there are usually 6 or 7 teams playing absolutely brutal schedules every year and it’s a rotating cast. Then the next 10 to 20 teams in the SoS rankings (where ND usually is every year) play very strong schedules, and then anyone over 40 or 50 SoS plays a pretty soft schedule.
Just look at LSU’s schedule:
Oregon (neutral), @ Miss State, @ West Virginia, vs. Florida, @ Tennessee, vs. Auburn, @ Alabama, vs. Arkansas
According to Steele, LSU is only ranked 8 spots higher than us (#5) but their schedule is a lot harder than ours, even with two cupcakes. I think this is where a lot of people look at our schedule, despite it’s #14 ranking and think it’s manageable.
Brad
See, I think thats another point though where perception is important. You see those names for LSU, and perceive it to be a really tough schedule.
But West Va went through lots of offseason turmoil, and wasn’t too great last year. Florida was bad, and has a bunch of spread guys for a pro system. Tennessee wasn’t very good, Auburn lost EVERYONE from that team, and Arkansas lost its big time QB.
I think the only real tough ones in that list are Oregon and Bama. The rest really are pretty ‘manageable’, but because they are SEC teams that have had success recently, they are perceived as great teams. In reality, a lot of the teams on that list may not be so great this year.
canuck75
Couldn’t agree more! Our sched has been tough for years, plus teams get up for us a bit more than usual. USC played Stanford within a field goal last year. Mich State needed a questionable call plus a trick play to beat us.Navy came within a play of beating a good OSU the year before.
So much for our pancake schedule.
theIrishLion10
If you are listening to ESPN, any schedule not played in the SEC conference is “manageable,” despite that league’s surplus of cupcake games that are scheduled
Badhair
Hey Lion–speaking of ESPN’s flagrant dissage of ND at any opportunity, did you (or anybody reading this) see the spot they ran last year entitled: “Another Season of Hope at Notre Dame”? It was an outrage. Bordered on libelous. You can’t find it anywhere on the web, now. They must have caught some SERIOUS heat from it. I aimed my camera at my computer and filmed it. Ought to be sweet to post once they’re covering us in a BCS game. Ha!
Trey
Everyone is pretty much missing the whole point here. The issue is not at all about the sked, the opponents, perception or any of that silliness. As the phrase goes, ‘We Are ND’ and that fact will naturally carry with it the hatred of the brand/success/exposure. No matter who we sked, there will ALWAYS be people saying we have a weak sked, only make the BCS because Swarbrick is sleeping with someone on the selection cmte, or some dumbass excuse to justify their jealousy. These people dont care about facts(ex Navy), they just want to bash ND any way they can. Who cares? I love it, bring the hate!
Brad
Very true. I distinctly remember getting into an argument with a kid from the University of Illinois about Notre Dame’s ‘cupcake’ schedule. I pointed out to him that Illinois regularly plays 3 non DI schools every year, followed by Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, and their big-time rivalry game with Indiana.
None of that mattered to him, though, because ND didn’t play a ‘real conference schedule’. Despite the fact that I pointed out ND regularly plays 10 or 11 BCS conference teams a year, with none of them (typically) being traditional conference doormats like Duke, Vanderbilt, or….say….Illinois, somehow it just didn’t matter. To him, ND played no one, and Illinois played a powerhouse schedule merely based upon the fact that they were in a conference.
You can’t argue with stupid.
The Biscuit
That’s all well and good, but the data is still the data and I will continue to fight the good fight.
kyndfan
In espn’s defense, the presence of LNIII on the field will make any opponent appear feeble.
Trey
Kynd wins the award for ‘mandatory LNIII reference in the comments.’
Erik '04
And a good’n at that.
E-Man
Definately the four point play of LNIII comments lately
GQ574
I always say teams play us harder than their other opp.. Hell playing ND is like going to Disney, see the dome, run out of the tunnel, play on national tv, why not have ND circled on your sked?
FightingSonOfNotreDame
Thank you! Sometimes I feel like the only one making this point, it’s crazy. This is a huge factor that the college “analysts” (I always laugh at when I hear them use that term to describe themselves) are completely oblivious to. They use no actual data for their “analysis”. It’s a shame when ND fans don’t know any better either.
Brendan
For what it’s worth, according to Rivals’ Preseason countdown, we only play 2 teams outside of the top 50: Purdue (#74) and Wake (#87). Between 29 and 50 we play: Air Force (29), Pitt (35), Michigan (36), BC (41), USF (43), Maryland (44), and Navy (50). Stanford, USC, and MSU are somewhere inside the top 29. That is a pretty tough schedule.