Clay Travis, a man of such depth that his bio on his personal website begins…
Clay Travis is the only former student manager in the history of college athletics to marry an NFL cheerleader. He managed to pull this off despite an irrational affinity for the television shows Dawson’s Creek and My Super Sweet 16.
Thinks that the financial situation of Notre Dame and its football program will eventually force ND to go and join a conference. (Link if you really want to bother.)
In all the talk about whether Notre Dame should stay independent, few of the points of discussion ever focus on the financial ramifications of their decision. I think that’s because most fans incorrectly assume that Notre Dame has already maximized their financial standing. That line of thinking is a vestige of the 1990 NBC contract that was truly monumental in scope. But since that time, cable television has proliferated to such a degree that 24 or so hours of programming over the course of a Notre Dame football season just isn’t that big of a deal. Not when you compare it with hundreds of hours of conference programming for networks, such as ESPN, with many platforms of distribution and hours and hours of content to fill. This isn’t just an opinion, the ratings reflect that college football fans are voting for conference affiliation with their eyeballs, they watch the average Big Ten and SEC game on ABC/ESPN and CBS, as noted above, much more often.
What does all of this mean? Notre Dame’s television revenue is going to continue to fall relative to the Big Ten and the SEC. If Vanderbilt and Northwestern aren’t already ahead of the Irish, which I think the numbers prove they definitely are, another couple of years of increasing television money will erase all doubts. This will continue all the way up through 2015 when Notre Dame’s newest extension with NBC runs out. By that time, the financial ramifications of Notre Dame’s independence will have become more apparent to everyone. The Big Ten Network will be thriving, throwing off cash to the 11 member institutions. ESPN, the Big Ten, and the SEC will be smoking big cigars as the ratings gold pours in from their deals.
And, mark my words, Touchdown Jesus will stick out his palm. Yep, at long last the Fighting Irish will be begging for a piece of the Big Ten pie.
Pokes and prods at Touchdown Jesus by a Vanderbilt grad aside, the actual content of his article isn’t all that interesting. Any ND fan who’s paid attention actually knows what’s going on with the BCS deals, the NBC deal, etc… And any ND fan who thinks beyond the depth of an episode of Dawson’s Creek for a moment might pick up on a key number in Travis’ opinion piece: 59.8 million bucks, the total revenue generated by ND Football in 2008.
There are things not considered by Travis while he sort of flippantly glosses over that number, most notably: size of the institutions on his linked list of revenue generation by football programs. Hey, here’s a list (with a bit of number variation) of top football revenue generation programs, plus a column I like to call “total enrollment.” (Source) Which of these teams is not like the others?
1. Texas - $72.95 million - 49,697 students 2. Georgia - $67.05 million - 33,959 students 3. Florida - $66.1 million - 50,912 students 4. Ohio State - $65.16 million - 51,818 students 5. Notre Dame - $59.77 million - 11,603 students 6. Auburn - $59.67 million - 23,547 students 7. Michigan - $57.46 million - 40,025 students 8. Alabama - $57.37 million - 23,838 students 9. Penn State - $53.76 million - 42,914 students 10. LSU - $52.68 million - 31,934 students
For those of you named Clay Travis, here’s the point of that list with the 3rd column added: Notre Dame is about one half the size of the next smallest school on that list of top-10 revenue generating football programs. And Notre Dame also still appears in the top 20 of total endowments. But the point isn’t, “hey! Look how wealthy ND is,” Travis. The point is ND is unique because they can be unique. They are unique because they choose to be unique. The university’s mission demands it. Oh sure, we’ll allow that there are fathomable circumstances that could force the university into seeking to join a conference in the future, but those circumstances wouldn’t be as simple as what Clay Travis presented in his opinion piece. I wont hold my breath waiting for Travis to investigate those possible circumstances with any depth.
Update: It’s been pointed out that I – as often is the case – left the reader with the job of inferring my point rather than actually spelling it out, so here it is. At ND’s size, with ND’s brand power (which isn’t going to just disappear, no matter what those like Clay Travis may wish), and with ND’s mission, the fact that it sits among lists like top-10 in football revenue generation and top-20 in endowment size means that it need not navigate the waters of college football the same way the institutions like Texas, rife with “satellite campuses”, must. In fact, the very act of thinking and acting like “everyone else,” cough-Kevin-White-cough jeopardizes that which makes ND unique. Working in a realm without the restraints and trappings that nearly every other competitor must work with actually gives ND a major competitive advantage – an advantage that must be nurtured. Travis, within his opinion piece, declared winners and losers in a race that will continue in perpetuity. It was foolish, it was hostile, and it can only be explained as an attempt to generate ad revenue for his bosses with a cheap parlor trick. Travis predicates the entire piece on the notion that ND will “feel” threatened and worried over the fact that NU and Vanderbilt will, for a shot time anyway, make more money from TV deals than ND. It’s an entirely baseless notion that he props up with the tired, “everyone else would be worried if it were them” argument.
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AnnArborIrish
I guess Travis has a point though, if you can remember all that clamoring about where Vandy and Northwestern might go bowling b/c they’re such a ratings-sure-thing that all the bowls were lining up, ready to beg for their appearance. No. Wait. That never happened and “mark my words” (tool) never will.
san diego irish
Domer–depending upon valuation method, ND might actually be the most valuable program. See for example http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/22/college-football-ncaa-business_cz_jg_1222collegefootball.html for an admittedly slighted dated study that places ND at the top.
The Biscuit
When did we get over 11K students? I keep quoting what it was in 2000 – around 6K undergrad and 2K grad. Are we up to 8 and 3 respectively? Pretty significant growth. I know they’re keeping undergrad pretty flat in the long-run from now on…was just surprised to see us over 11 so quickly. man. getting old.
domer.mq
No idea, Biscuit. Frankly I was annoyed to see it. Not that I want to keep people out. I just want ND to remain small.
kmf
ND has been at 8K undergrad for many years now. At least since before ’96 when I was a freshman.
joaj34
I actually read the piece, and it looks like the point has been missed here. School size and overall revenue don’t have much to do with what Travis is saying. True, the Irish earn impressive revenue for such a small school and Notre Dame is a very unique and special institution. But, it’s the changing times of football TV contracts that could possibly force ND into a conference, if they want the same exposure as the other teams on that list. Just look at basketball; sometimes it pays to be tied in to a league and the time may be coming for the football program. I’d like to see some honest research into the issue not just anti-Irish vitriol vs. ND sensitivity/elitism.
san diego irish
I think Domer’s point is that money, tv money or otherwise, shouldn’t be the deciding factor in ND’s independence. My point is that if ND has the most valuable program now, and that’s not likely to change, even if money is the concern they have nothing to worry about. And why would NBC not want to renew the contract? They stuck with ND through more than a decade of mediocrity and things appear to be on the upswing now. ND will never have a problem finding sufficient TV exposure–whether through NBC or someone else–it’s fanbase is huge and plenty others watch just to see ND lose. I think Domer is right, there may be other reasons that would force the Irish into a conference, but they won’t be money or exposure.
joaj34
I think that should be the point, but it’s presented poorly; there’s no explicit response or cogent argument against the original, offensive article in question. This is a series of personal attacks, a block quote, and a selection of numbers showing how much money ND has/earns/is worth, etc. The numbers given do not necessarily explain why ND couldn’t be forced to join a conference one day due to TV contracts shifting the way they have to conference deals. That is what Travis’ article is about, but it’s not really repudiated in this piece. You say that you “think Domer is right, there may be other reasons that would force the Irish into a conference, but they won’t be money or exposure.” OK, good. But why? And all the financial statistics in the world don’t answer this. What other reason would there be, besides a ban on indies or a fall-out with the powers that be (things that won’t happen), than money or exposure?
domer.mq
joaj34, I didn’t miss the point. I just disagree with it. First of all, we now know exactly what the TV deals for the B10 and SEC will look like in 2015. We don’t know what the TV deal for ND will look like. Imagine this scenario, and no, I’m not saying this will happen, but imagine: ND between seasons ’09 and ’14 manage to reach 3 BCS games. That’ll be, probably, 3 very good years in terms of ratings for NBC, just as the 2 BCS seasons Weis started with were very good for NBC. Then ND looks at the landscape, sees what programs like NU and Vandy are getting in their deals, and tells NBC that they want something akin to that or they’ll shop around to Fox or ESPN (as far as I know, there’s nothing precluding ESPN from televising ND games just because they’ve got parts of deals with other programs). I think it’s just as likely NBC jumps at the chance to renew as it is that they wont, probably moreso.
Granted, ND could go through their worst stretch ever in the next 5 years. Who knows? But Travis prognosticates that ND will have fallen behind and will remain behind.
Travis also seems to think that money is purely what will drive decisions at ND just as they do “everywhere else.” And pardon my lack of cynicism, but I disagree. There was a lot of money to be made the last time the BoT had to vote note to join the B10. There’s lots of money that could be made in jumbotrons and blaring ads over loudspeakers during timeouts too. But ND hasn’t done those things. And I’m betting that, under Jenkins and Swarbrick, ND wont start doing those things either.
Further, the very fact that the Irish earn a relative ton per student compared to the other programs gives the institution a lot of leeway in how they decide to navigate these waters. ND students aren’t lacking for resources. The academics are clearly not suffering. ND’s just fine.
As I said, there are feasible circumstances, though somewhat unlikely, that could force ND to join a conference, but this ain’t it.
joaj34
First, I want to say that I am neither anti-ND or pro-Travis here. I’ve just always had an interest in ND’s unique independence and the endless connection to the Big 10. Second, I understand that ND has money – you’ve made that very clear and I thought I’d made it clear that it was both impressive and understood. I guess my question is: If not money or exposure (which both you and SDIrish have said won’t be the reasons for joining a conference), what would the “feasible circumstances” be? Please note that I am not attacking or contradicting here, just looking for some clarification and insight.
domer.mq
joaj34, I honestly can’t give you any “fesible circumstances” that I would also find “acceptable,” speaking as an alum. But I’m also not going to try to argue that there’s just no possible way it would ever happen. I just think Travis’ assertion is very flawed. He seems to think that 1) ND will make all decisions based on money (pretty cynical), 2) a course of action to solve any “problem” that might arise in the case of TV money/contracts must be binary, and must include only the choices “join conference” or “don’t join conference,” and 3) ND will not be in any position to improve its bargaining position in the next 5 years and will necessarily be making far less money than the schools in the B11/SEC.
joaj34
Well, thanks for the consideration, anyway. I agree that dealing in binaries can be an elementary way to address a problem, but it’s an easy trap to fall into. And, trust me, I know, whether you love ND or love to hate ND, college football overall is at it’s best when the Irish are in the mix. My next question would then be: If ND ever did join the Big 10, would they still call it the Big 10? Surely they’d have to rename the league then. Big-12’s out and The Western Conference throwback moniker would just confuse the hell out of everybody.
domer.mq
joaj34, I’ve tried to clarify my original post as per your commentary. I make a bad habit of implying within my posts here, largely because I figure I’m writing to a like-minded audience. Hell, some of our regulars could finish my sentences at this point.
san diego irish
Joaj34–off the top of my head, the only way I ever see ND joining a conference is if the BCS or the NCAA tournament selection committee (a guy can dream) adopts some framework that puts ND at a significant disadvantage due to its independent status. Or maybe if the Big East somehow tries to require its member schools to join in all sports, at which point ND would have to make some tough decisions because conference membership is good for NDs other sports programs. I don’t think either of these are likely to happen.
Jim
Joa, I miss one of your points. Are you implying that ND would gain “Exposure” by joining a conference? I think having 8 games on one network nationally televised gives the Irish more exposure than any program in football. Let’s assume 3 of the 4, if not all, of the road games will be national on ESPN, ABC, or CBS (Navy game). That would give 11 or 12 of 12.
Would ND enjoy that same exposure in the B11?
Patrick
What Travis failed to mention and I haven’t seen it written anywhere else is what a collossal failure the Big Ten network has been. Fox network has propped it up by throwing millions of dollars into it. That is the same money that the Big 11 schools are receiving because the fact is that this network’s ratings are pathetic and it’s not generating a profit on its own. Heck, watch the commercials. When they go to commercial break you very well may not see any. They constantly place little promotions or psa’s to fill spots. Most of the commercials they do fill up are from specific schools themselves, like a Michigan State ad selling season tickets for football. Bottom line: The Big Telen Schools are not really receiving all that dough from the Big Ten Network. They are getting it from the Fox network which is propping up this patheticly run product.
BJGator
The exposure Notre Dame receives now is different than that of the other big names in college football. First, NBC broadcasts every ND home game nationwide. There are no differences in coverage by region. For example, ABC may be covering a Miami-UNC game at 3:30, but at the same time, they’re covering Missouri-Nebraska and Oregon-Cal. Depending on where you live, you could be seeing any of these games.
Now, CBS does feature a single SEC game in it’s late afternoon time slot. But the teams involved vary from week to week. Granted, certain teams do show up more often, but even Florida had at least 3 games last year shown only on RayCom sports, which qualifies as ultra-regional coverage. Notre Dame football is broadcast nationwide on a network at least 7 times a year. This type of publicity is unheard of, unless you’re ND.
And last year, all 5 of Notre Dame’s away games were broadcast in certain regions by ESPN. And looking at the coverage maps for these games, it seems that games featuring Notre Dame covered the most area. I just don’t understand why a team that has 7 games nationally televised and it’s other 5 games shown in most of the US would want to change.
Also consider that each NBC broadcast contains plenty of shots of the beautiful campus and exploration into the great tradition of Notre Dame. I think ND’s doing alright. No thanks, Big Ten.
joaj34
Jim – I wanted more explanation on the original piece. If this was meant to be a true repudiation to Travis’ article it needed to clarify it’s points better. I was simply asking questions that were very politely and eloquently entertained and answered by both ‘san diego irish’ and ‘domer’. I never implied anything other than my concerns that the original post did not well enough contradict CT’s assumptions. Domer has since done this for me; I never stated my own stance on the matter.