1a + 1b + 1c = 1 or 3/3rds?
Answer: James Aldridge, Armando Allen, Robert Hughes
Question: Who is the starting tailback at the University of Notre Dame?
Last week, Charlie Weis released a depth chart to the media, and, since the Irish finally have a nearly-full roster, most of the “OR”s are gone. You know, like our starting offensive line last year was “this guy OR this guy OR this guy.” But the one rather conspicuous spot on the roster where the “OR” remained was at tailback. Many (most?) Irish fans are really pretty okay with that. After all, these 3 young men seem to have a ton of talent, all three were highly recruited coming out of highschool, and usually when the subject comes up, someone inevitably mentions how wonderful it is that each one has a “unique” running style that should help give defenses “fits.” Also inevitably, someone brings up the term “stable,” as in “stable of running backs.” The term evokes a depth chart full of “thoroughbreds” ready to dash down the field while overwhelming the competition. But if you’ve got 3 “starters,” do you have one? How successful are teams that utilize such “stables,” and how are successful teams currently running the ball?
To find some answers, I took a look at the final AP Poll for the 2007/2008 season, and broke down their rushing statistics and analyzed their “stables” - the top 3 rushers. I did much the same thing with the top 25 rushing teams in football for the 2007 season so see how those guys make the ground game so effective as well. Please note: Many of these teams have more than 3 players with rushing statistics. Since we’re talking about the Irish’s three “#1″ guys, I decided to focus only on the top-3 of each team. Percentages, totals, and all other math are based on only the top 3 rushers of each team.
Here’s what I found. You can check out the spreadsheet below, but I really recommend you click here (pop-up) so you can see the full sheet. There’s a lot going on here.
I can’t recall, but I’m not sure Weis has completely committed to using a 3-man approach to the rushing game this year. In the pros, he’s used rushing platoons and he’s used more “primary” tailback approaches. He’s also used a lot of situational personnel packages. It goes with his usual M.O. of doing whatever he thinks will work right now rather than sticking to one formula year-in and year-out. But let’s just consider the breakdown of rushing attempts by ND’s stable last year, and go from there to get a sense of how it compared to successful teams in 2007.
In 2007, ND’s “3 horsemen” shared rushing responsibilities in the following way.
- James Aldridge: 121 rushes, 463 yards, 3.83 yds/carry, 47% of carries, 42% of yards.
- Armando Allen: 86 rushes, 348 yards, 4.05 yds/carry, 33% of carries, 31% of yards.
- Robert Hughes: 53 rushes, 294 yards, 5.55 yds/carry, 20% of carries, 27% of yards.
And all told, that resulted in a performance by our “#1 back” that looks like this: 260 rushes, 1105 yards gained, 4.25 yards per carry.
It’s hard to tell how much planning went into this sort of breakdown. For one, Aldridge was the more veteran player over Allen and Hughes, so his extra carries make sense. But later in the season, Hughes sure seemed to be the feature back. Aldridge’s injuries certainly skew things as well. But let’s just say, for argument’s sake, that the “goal” breakdown that Weis may have in mind for his stable is a 1a back with 45-50% of the carries, and 2 “1b” backs with anywhere between 20% and 30% of the carries each. In essence, you’d have a “feature back” that only does about half the work.
Looking at the AP Top 25, we find only three teams with a similar formula in 2007, but those teams are pretty good company: Southern Cal, Florida, and Auburn. At this point, I’m tempted to point out that Florida’s “stable” includes a QB, and thus isn’t really the typical “stable,” but Tim Tebow is far from a typical QB, and the Florida system certainly depends on the QB being a running back. Where things really get mucked up, looking at Florida, is their #2 running back is, technically, a Wide Receiver: Percy Harvin. No wonder Meyer hates his running backs.
So we’ve really got just 2 teams in the AP Top 25 that follow the Irish’s formula: Southern Cal with a RB workload split of about 50/25/25 and Auburn with a workload split of about 50/30/20. These are certainly great teams to emulate in the running game, but neither one is a top 25 rushing teams. Southern Cal came in as the 27th ranked rushing team while Auburn came in at #53.
What about the top rushing teams though? How many of them follow the Irish formula? Well, only 1 really comes close: Air Force, and while Air Force’s offense was a bit more “modernized” than their typical triple-option of previous years, they do still run the option, and their split is 49/23/29. So it’s hard to say the Irish formula really applies here.
Of the AP Top 25, the average “lead rusher” of each team carries the ball 54% of the time. Of the top 25 rushing teams, that number is 55.38. So the prescription for some improvement in the Irish running game at least seems to be: pick a feature back, particularly if you don’t run the spread or the option, and you’d like to be a Top 25 team.
Lots of random bits that I can’t put together coherently:
- The Irish stable rushed for 1105 yards in 2007. If you think of all of them as our #1 back, that’s not a bad number at all. The problem is, there were a lot of #1 rushers for other teams encased in a singular body that out-do that performance. In the AP T-25, there were 12 such players. And Knowshon Moreno, of Georgia, did it without starting the first 3 games of the season.
- The average yards/carry of each AP T-25 stable was 5.18. that’s nearly a yard better than the Irish stable’s 4.25.
- Average yards/carry of the #1 rusher for top 25 rushing teams was 5.69. That’s nearly a yard and a half better than the Irish.
- The average yards for the season of AP T-25 #1 rushers was 7 yards better than the total for Allen, Hughes, and Aldridge.
- If you want to be in the AP T-25, it’s a good idea to have a top 25 rushing team. 7 of the AP T-25 were in the top 25 rushing teams last season. But, you can be in the top 50 of rushing teams and still have a really good shot at the AP T-25. 16 such teams did that last year.
- Still the average rushing rank of the AP T-25 wasn’t stellar: 46.76. Good, but not stellar. And even the top 10’s average rush rank was only a “very good” 37.27.
- Having one of the best rushers in the land is quite helpful, but not as helpful as you might think. Of the AP T-25 teams that do have a top 25 rusher, their average rank was only 17.86.
- Of the top 25 rushing teams, only 5 had a “#1 rusher” with less than 46% of the workload. 17 of the top 25 rushing teams had a lead rusher with over 50% of the workload. 15 of those teams had lead rushers with at least 55% of the workload.
- The entire stable of AP T-25 rushers includes 60 running backs, 7 wide receivers, and 6 QBs.
- All but one of the AP Top Ten (Va Tech) were within the top 40 of rushing.
- Notre Dame ranked just 1 spot lower on rushing game than AP #19 Hawaii and actually beat out #22 Texas Tech by 4 spots. Of course, those 2 teams both threw the ball at least 70% of the time.
- Only 7 of the NCAA’s top 25 rushers were on teams that ended up in the final AP T-25.
- According to weird NCAA stats, where sacks count as rushes, ND ran the ball about 53% of the time. The AP T-25 ran the ball, on average, about 54% of the time. Of course, that includes Hawaii and Texas Tech again, and nobody gave up the # of sacks that the Irish did.
See any other trends or statistical weirdness I forgot to mention? Have any thoughts of the benefits of a platoon system versus a feature back?
Frankly, I’d like to see 1 guy get 55-60% of the carries this year, and if that guy isn’t pretty clear by game 3, I’ll be worried about the success of the 2008 Irish squad.
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