The Absurdity of K-State Above ND

We all know the polls are dumb. I don’t mean any individuals are dumb (which is also likely) but that the collective group is. They lack data, they don’t pay attention to data if they do have it, and their own biases impact everything. It’s kind of a silly system, and the current ranking of ND behind K-State is also silly.

This is a rock. We have a golden dome with Jesus’ mom on it. C’MON!

Here’s why.

Let’s take a look at a few data points to evaluate the order here:

1. Performance against the same opponents
2. Absolute Stats
3. Opponent-Adjusted Stats
4. Overall SOS (stealing this from Tex’s post earlier this week)

So, first:

1. Performance against the same opponents

Both ND and K-State played Miami and Oklahoma, and both teams won those games. But they didn’t win by the same margins. This is probably the ‘fairest’ comparison of the two teams we’ll get as they are the exact same opponents. The results of a comparison favor ND.

ND-OK: 30-13
KS-OK: 24-19

ND beat Oklahoma by 17 points for score ratio of 131%. KS beat Oklahoma by less than a Touchdown, a differential of 5 points or 26%. ND scored more points against Oklahoma and gave up fewer. This is clearly a superior performance by ND against the same team.

ND-MI: 41-3
KS-MI: 52-13

Here the story is more mixed as ND scored fewer points but also gave up fewer. On a percentage basis KS put up 3X or 300% of Miami’s points. But ND put up almost 13X or 1300%! C’mon now, folks!

But even if you call that a tie it’s pretty clear that ND outperformed K-State against the same competition. Say whatever else you want, but ND wins this test. ADVANTAGE ND

2. Absolute Stats

This is the one place where K-State looks better than ND, and it’s almost entirely on the offensive side of the ball. When we look at rankings of Passing and Rushing Offense (Yards), Points For and Points Against, ND only wins in the last category. And that’s where the perception that K-State is ‘better’ sets in. Here are national rankings in those categories:

KS ND

PASS 82 89
RUSH 18 30
POINTS 5 72
AGAINST 21 2

So K-State wins Test 2 but that brings us to Test 3 which pretty much negates it…

3. Opponent-Adjusted Stats

The problem with the previous view is that it completely ignores who they’ve played. And while K-State clearly has better offensive stats, ND has played a slate of teams with MUCH better defenses. And that matters. A lot.

Looking at the Combined S&P/FEI rankings on FootballOutsiders.com, which accounts for the quality of the teams played, we get a very different story.

KS ND

OFF 11 4
DEF 15 4

ND is better at both offense and defense once the competition is taken into account. ADVANTAGE BACK TO ND. Which brings us to point 4, competition.

4. SOS

See, when two teams have the exact same record, this is where the rubber meets the road. Look, if I am 100-0 in boxing and only fought 5th grade girls (or BC students – ZING!) you might not be intimidated. If I was 100-0 and took down heavyweight pros, it’s a different story. But somehow poll voters ignore this. ND is undefeated. So is K-State. BUT ND HAS PLAYED A HARDER SCHEDULE ACCORDING TO EVERYONE!

From Tex’s post earlier this week, here are the various SOS rankings for K-State and ND respectively:

KS: 30 40 13 16 33 AVERAGE = 26.4
ND: 25 8 10 7 16 AVERAGE = 16.2

So ND goes undefeated against the 16th most difficult schedule and K-State does the same against the 26th and somehow K-State is better than ND? WHAT KIND OF CRACK IS BEING SMOKED HERE?

Summary:

ND performed better against the same teams, ND has better opponent-adjusted stats, and ND played a more difficult schedule and has the same record. ND is #3 folks, plain and simple.

All K-State has over ND is style points (because people love offense), ND hatred in the general populace, and ND pulling off some close Ws in OT. But I find that much less compelling than all of the data here.

So that’s that. Now, on to Oregon…

BEAT BC!!!

You’re So Predictable: Opening Weekend FAIL

Three traditionally major college football programs (including 1 with real student-athletes), have an actual opportunity to suffer an opening weekend loss because their programs are in some sort of state of flux. One hopes to take the momentum from a bowl game all the way through the offseason. One hopes the first freshman starting QB doesn’t end an era. One hopes their coach doesn’t embarrass them by crying because then he might get embarrassed himself and make the team run more. A lot more.

So the first You’re So Predictable poll of the season is…

Which Program Will Throw Their Entire Season In The Gutter This Weekend?

• Michigan (sucks!) will commit The Beautiful Fail vs. Western Michigan: The sort that’s too beautiful to look away. So beautiful, we’ll call cry. (85%, 204 Votes)
• Notre Dame will commit Anesthetic Fail vs. Nevada: It would hurt, but you care too much to let it hurt anymore. You’re just gonna go mow the lawn and then drink something. (13%, 32 Votes)
• SoCal will commit Screw You All Fail vs. SJSU: The Sort that makes a ND over SC win later in the year meaningless. Or a tOSU win over SC or a Cal win over SC. All meaningless. (2%, 4 Votes)

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You’re So Predictable: 2010 Irish Draftees

Our announcement of the ND vs. Opposition Draft, coupled with this post over on UHND, reminded me of this post we did a year ago looking at draft talent in ND’s upper classes and this post from this past spring looking at the poor state of draftable players on the 2008 squad (again, keep in mind, we were looking at the more senior classes) where we proposed a thought-experiment:

What sort of ratio of wins-to-2010-draftees would that represent? Go ahead and throw your guesses down in the comments. I’ll think on it a bit more and throw mine in there as well, but I’m having trouble dividing by zero.

And remember, we found that, in the 31 seasons studied, the average number of wins for a season per draftee in the following year was 1.75.

So with that in mind, and the 2009 season approaching quickly, we ask…

How Many Irish on the Current Roster Will Get Drafted in 2010?

• 4-6 (59%, 43 Votes)
• 0-3 (25%, 18 Votes)
• 7-9 (8%, 6 Votes)
• 9+ (8%, 6 Votes)

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A passing in the Notre Dame/NBC family

Sadly, NBC and Notre Dame will be missing a familiar face when this season eventually, finally, rolls around.  Bea Arthur has left the building.

Silky coiffed Bea Arthur waves “So long” to an indifferent crowd of well-wishers.

Soon after the cancellation of her hit sit-com Golden Girls, Arthur found her way to another passion: Notre Dame football.  Assuming a nom de télévision, Arthur worked alongside former USC quarterback and elf Pat Haden to bring her wry wit, astute observations, and rich, vanilla timbre to homes across America for many years.

We will miss her soulful eyes, her shimmering neck scarves, and the way she’d seamlessly weave a reference to the upcoming episode of “My Name is Earl” into game action.

Gone too soon.  Gone…. too soon.

You’re So Predictable: 2009 B&G Game

Once again, Notre Dame will utilize Bizzaro Rules for their Blue and Gold game. And really, I’m not opposed to the idea because it seems to enable the coaching staff to utilize the game as an actual practice rather than some sort of dog and pony show. Still, it makes keeping track of the score a bit tricky, so naturally we’re asking y’all to predict the score and the final outcome…

Final Score of the 2009 B&G Game?

• Offense: Between 20 and 45; Offense Wins (32%, 7 Votes)
• Offense: 45 or More; Offense wins. (32%, 7 Votes)
• Offense: Between 20 and 45; Defense Wins (18%, 4 Votes)
• Offense: Fewer than 20; Offense wins (9%, 2 Votes)
• Offense: 45 or more; Defense wins. (5%, 1 Votes)
• Offense: Fewer than 20; Defense wins (4%, 1 Votes)

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