Upcoming Opponents

Navy vs. Rutgers: The Midshipmen finish the first half of their schedule this weekend after staring off 2-3. As you're probably aware, they lost a barn-burner in Annapolis against Air Force 2 weekends ago in overtime, but you're probably much less aware that last weekend they were blistered by Southern Miss to the tune of 63-35. Seems the Navy/Air Force game took a lot out of both parties. Meanwhile Rutgers walks in with a 4-1 record, suffering their only defeat to North Carolina. No doubt that's got the Knights feeling a bit too big for their britches. Again. Look for yet another stadium expansion and talk of their head coach taking a bigger job any moment now. (2pm ET, ESPN3.)

Wake Forest at Virginia Tech: Remember that gaping black hole where a competitor should be in our schedule back in July? Yeah, it ain't there anymore. Some way, some how, Wake Forest is 4-1 and 3-0 in the ACC, fresh off a 35-30 defeat of previously #23 Florida State. Granted, their opposition has not exactly been strong (this statement expressly includes Florida State), but near as I can tell the Deamon Deacons have already exceeded the very low expectations of their very apathetic fan-base. Meanwhile Virginia Tech is already 5-1 and their only loss came at the hands of the Clemson Tigers and Dabo Sweeny, so that doesn't even really count because, seriously, "Dabo?" If for no other reason, Irish fans should tune into ESPN3.com this weekend to watch Virginia Tech run their special teams, because that's what Virginia Tech does better than anyone else. That and super-computers. (6:30pm ET, ESPN3)

Maryland vs. Clemson: Hey, speaking of Dabo, he brings his #8 (!?) Tigers to Maryland and ESPN-U for the Terps homecoming game. Yep, seriously, the Terps are playing a top-ten team for their Homecoming game. That's how interested Maryland is in college football, the only way to get the locals to show up is the promise of terrible sites unsuitable for children, like when you feed turtles to tigers. Maryland, of course, is now lead by Randy Edsall, best known for leading UConn to a BCS game and a win over Notre Dame in South Bend. And Randy's not really been having much fun. He's started 2-3 in College Park despite having, probably, the formerly best skill-set at QB in the ACC. Just a couple of weeks ago they suffred a revenge bludgeoning (38-7) at the hands of Temple, who were probably pretty ticked with Randy for beating their former coach Al Golden in his debut at Miami. Never mind all that though, tune into ESPN-U for this game just to see Dabo in action. Marvel as that blind squirrel just keeps finding one nut after another. (7pm ET, ESPN-U)

Stanford at Washington State: As much as Stanford's Redwood of a QB, Andrew Luck, is talked about in college football circles, it feels like a good third of NFL fans are already talking about "winning the Andrew Luck Lottery," in anticipation of him going pro next year. Stanford is, of course, undefeated and ranked #7 rather than, say, #3 or #4 probably due to the departure of former HC John Harbaugh. Thus far the trees have won all 5 of their games by at least 27 points as they methodically work their way through a schedule with very little apparent resistance. Aside from a November 5th date with #9 Oregon, it's quite likely that their next toughest opponent will be the Irish in the season finale. Certainly Washington State will not offer up much more than quality practice time for Stanford's reserves, but it might be worth checking this game out on Versus just to see the inevitable #1 pick in next spring's NFL draft. (7:30pm ET, Versus)

Other Games of Interest

#6 Oklahoma State vs. #22 Texas: You could almost hear the voices of the OSU cowboys saying, "our turn!" as time expired on last weeks "Red River Shootout." More like Red River Massacre. Oklahoma laid 55 points on Texas, who laid down while managing just 17 points themselves. And it wasn't even close to being that close. There's almost no way Oklahoma State, long considered the little brother of Oklahoma collegiate football, isn't licking its chops at the chance to prove itself against the same measuring stick one week later. If this one gets out of hand in OSU's favor, it will be well worth watching that offense seek to out-do 55 points before time runs out. (3:30 pm ET, ABC/ESPN)

#20 Baylor vs. #21 Texas A&M: The game of misfit toys. Without a doubt one of the most under-appreciated oddities of college football is the sight of Mike Sherman lead the Aggies and do it rather competently. And also without a doubt one of the most spectacular sights in college football is Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III do... anything. Seriously, RGIII is the closest thing to a human highlight reel that college football has this season, and if you've not watched him play this year, you're doing yourself a disservice. (12 pm ET, FX)

#11 Michigan vs. #23 Michigan State: The transitive property of college football put to the ultimate test. In one corner, you've got a team playing in waters above their head while enjoying a "new coach bounce" and the services of one of the most dynamic players in the entire game. In the other, a team which quite frankly shouldn't still be ranked at all if the Irish aren't going to be ranked above them. Last year the Spartans contained Denard Robinson to "just" 100 yards rushing, and at the mid-point in the season, there's no more guessing about what the Wolvering offense will look like. It'll look pretty much exactly like it did in the 4th quarter of ND's game with Michigan in week 2. At this point, tune in to cheer on the Spartans at least to justify their ranking above the Irish and to see if Denard Robinson does anything completely absurd. (12 pm ET, ESPN/ESPN3)

#18 Arizona State vs. #9 Oregon: Arizona State features the dirtiest player in the game and the best uniform redesign of the last 3 years. All kidding aside, the new uniforms are awesome. And all kidding aside, Vontaze Burffict will inevitably show up on The Smoking Gun years from now in a crime scandal. He's just that dirty - it's just that obvious. And Oregon, of course, features an offense that can't be slowed down even if you do manage to contain them. Given the ducks started the entire uniform-redesign craze, you've got to wonder if they've got anything special in store for this game to answer to ASU's hellfire trident logos. (10:15pm ET, ESPN/ESPN3)

To illustrate just how different the Air Force attack is compared to Navy's just read what Navy's own coaching staff had to say about it leading up to last week's Navy/Air Force game:

"They do a lot of things that present problems. Coach Calhoun is a great offensive mind and they have a great scheme," Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo said. "There is some carryover for us because they have a lot of elements of the option, but they run more zone plays and power plays than we do."

Air Force's ability to switch in and out of various offensive sets is a nightmare for a defensive coordinator, and Navy's Buddy Green has been working overtime in the film room to identify any tendencies that might help his players on the field.

"They give you 45-50 formations and they use a lot of personnel," Green said. "They will use two tight ends, one tight end or no tight end. They'll go shotgun, line up with an empty backfield in a true spread look or go to a pro I-formation and run the zone power play. Other times, they'll come out with the double-slot formation like us and run option."

Senior defensive end Jabaree Tuani, a four-year starter who has seen the entire Air Force bag of tricks, said scouting and film study can help the Navy defenders have an idea what might be coming depending on how Air Force lines up.

"Formation recognition definitely helps a lot. If it's a one-back set with the fullback there's a good chance it's an inside play. Obviously, the shotgun formation increases the chance it will be a passing play," Tuani said. "Knowing the formations and what they do out of certain formations is important."

However, what makes defending Air Force so difficult is the fact co-offensive coordinators Clay Hendrix (field) and Blane Morgan (press box) will call option plays out of the spread formation and pass plays out of the double-slot formation.

"You've got to be able to defend the drop-back passing game or the zone read game out of shotgun. You've got to be able to defend the empty backfield or two tight end set. You've got to defend against the option game," Green bemoaned. "There are so many different looks and variations, and yes they can run the option out of almost any formation they have."

Still, while the offense presents many looks, Air Force butters its bread with the rushing attack, tallying enough yardage on the ground to rank 3rd in college football in rushing offense at 364 yards per game and barely pushing its passing offense up to 149 yards per game (good for 112th in FBS football). In fact, outside of the game with TCU, which Air Force lost by a wide margin, the Falcons have only attacked the air 36 times, for 12 attempts per game. Still, of those 36 attempts, the Falcons completed 26 for a 72% completion rate outside of the TCU game, including an astonishing 9 completions in 10 attempts against Navy. Against TCU, the Falcons were far less effective in the air, completing just 12 of 21, including 1 completion from Wide Receiver Jonathan Warzeka. Given TCU's reputation for defense, those numbers should come as no surprise, but in truth, this season, TCU has deviated from their general trend of defensive mastery over the last decade, ranking just 101st in Pass Defense and 106th in Pass Efficiency Defense. Still, Air Force's completions in the TCU game went for an average of 14 yards. Look for the Falcons to take a few shots down the field to see if Irish defensive backs are looking for the ball.

The variations within the Air Force system, however, do seem to affect the Falcons in an interesting way: turnovers. Currently, the Falcons are -.50 in Turnover Margin for a 92nd ranking. While hardly showing a propensity for dropping the ball like the 2011 Irish, that's still significantly worse (and significantly more undisciplined) than Navy's 21st ranking (at +.75). At 8 total turnovers lost, Air Force is averaging 2 turnovers per game. In fact, in their first game, the Falcons put the ball on the turf 4 times (losing it twice). Perhaps all that mental preparation to run such a varied attack means less time for work on ball security. This seems to be a new problem for the Falcons, as the 8 lost turnovers this year is nearly half of the total they suffered in all of 2010 (which placed them at 16th nationally for the year).

Finally, for Irish fans wondering where on earth the "typical" speed of a Brian Kelly offense has been this season, this just might be the week when it could be put to good use. Last week Navy's offense forced Air Force into facing 105 defensive snaps. And the Falcon defense is suffering some wear and tear, missing a 2 starting linebackers, 2 starting defensive ends, and a cornerback. A heavy, rapid rotation of Wood and Gray should prove quite taxing to Air Force. Afterall, having faced Navy, TCU, South Dakota, and Tennessee State, the Falcons are already 113th in rush defense - even after holding Navy to 18 yards below their season average.

Have to admit, 2 of the main reasons for ranking Michigan State here are

1. The ability to use the above picture
2. This game of chicken that Biscuit, DMQ, & I are playing with respect to ranking ND (which is totally going to backfire on me when they don't blink)

The last impression most people have of Michigan State was their absolute domination at the hands of Alabama in the Captial One Bowl. That utter humiliation changed a great deal of the perception surrounding their 11 win season.

Bowl ass-whooping or not, Michigan State was a solid team in 2010. They weren't 11 win great but they were a well coached, consistent team who got some lucky breaks along the way to get to 11 wins. "Jack of all trades, master of none" describes the 2010 Spartans. They did plenty of things well enough to beat average teams while doing nothing excellent enough to beat the elite teams.

Kirk Cousins, both starting RBs and 4 of the top 6 receivers all returning so some offense improvements should be expected. On the other hand, Greg Jones finally graduated and the Spartans will be relying a bunch of sophomores to replace his production.

Michigan State in Close Games During Mark Dantonio's Tenure:
• 2007: 2-6
• 2008: 2-1
• 2009: 2-4
• 2010: 4-0

As you can, Michigan State had some luck on their side during 2010, performing extremely well in close games. This is not something that elite teams rely on to be consistently good year-to-year so some regression in close games should be expected adding losses to MSU's record.

Overall, I expect Michigan State to actually be a somewhat better team in 2011 while not duplicating the success of 11 wins.

Much better previews:
Football Study Hall (link)
PreSnapRead (link)

…
19. Michigan State (PootND)
20. Texas (DMQ)
21. Ole Miss (Biscuit)
22. Mississippi State (PootND)
23. South Carolina (DMQ)
24. Ohio State (Biscuit)
25. Arizona State (PootND)

If it weren’t Boston College this weekend, if it were say... Army, or Navy, I’d probably just say screw it to the weekly mocking video. I just don’t have it in me after three straight weeks of disheartening football viewing. But it is Boston College. And I sure hate them. I do. I don’t consider them a rival. I don’t hate them that way. I hate them like I hate parasites. Like a tapeworm. Or a liver fluke. Boston College fans always have trouble with this distinction.

New mascot. At least consider it.

They are the mythical jungle cats who sneak into your dairy pastures at night and suckle your cows until their udders are as dry, dangly and flaccid as Tom Hammond’s dewlap. Such parasites give nothing. They only take. There is no symbiosis there. They are worth nothing in themselves.

I have an intricate heart divided into pockets for love, indifference (inexplicably), and hatred, and in the upper Northwest quadrant of the right atrium there is a slot allotted specifically, and solely, for Boston College.

I mean it.

How much of this is because of David Gordon kicking a field goal to ruin Notre Dame’s perfect season seventeen years ago? A lot. It’s difficult to think of a more painful moment in the football portion of my life. That’s really it for me. The bottom. What’s maybe worse, in a way, is the manner in which Boston College fans I have met since that awful day tend to bring it up. That’s almost two decades worth of schadenfreude dribbling past me here and there, now and then, for 17 years. That wears on a soul, my friend.

And I’m ranting, so let me just take some time to expound on the fact that Boston College is never very good. The only joy their fans CAN take from a season is a moment like that, the upset. They hang their only hopes for satisfaction on the fragile coat-rack of other people’s suffering. Boston College has never won a national championship. They probably never will. In the past 25 years, Boston College has lost at least three games in every season. Over the past 55 years, they’ve lost at least two games each season. They’ve had some decent teams and some good players, but they haven’t really been great since World War II. When everyone worth playing was out putting his life in the hands of his fellow man, pitting might against might, steel against flesh, out there on the beach in Saipan laying a beatin’ on the goddamned j... Whoa... easy... easy, Grandpa. Here, let’s help you into this chair. Turn on that Andrews Sisters album, dammit! Here. Comb his hair. He loves that. There you go. Theeere you go. Ready for your pill?

So that’s kind of how I feel about Boston College. I went to their stadium once, ayuh, back in 1998, nigh on 12 years ago. They piped in music and crowd noise. They stomped on their aluminum high school stadium seats. Their fans were abusive. They hung Notre Dame players in effigy in this strange student-housing shambles by the stadium. And Notre Dame beat them with an incredible goal-line stand. And it was sweet. But not as sweet as it would have been for Boston College if the shoe had been on the other foot. Which is really what separates Notre Dame from Boston College. A Notre Dame fan can know pain. A Notre Dame fan has something worth suffering for.

It’s science.

BC's one of those teams who you can only feel relief after beating. There's no real joy in it.

A few good reasons to mock Boston College:
1. They’re Catholic! Wah ha ha ha ha ha ha! Oh wait.

BC President, Father William P. Leahy SJ wows the crowd with an irreverent limerick about a young woman with a fondness for licorice. Jesuits.

2. They’re a college, but they still call themselves a University. Because there’s already a Boston University. And it’s more prestigious..

3. They get Notre Dame’s admissions office’s sloppy seconds. That’s right. I said it. Go buy a ticket on the T and cry about it... while listening to Elliot Smith. As the sun rises.

4. They have a better record than Notre Dame. That doesn’t make sense initially, but they beat a I-AA school 38-20, beat a MAC team, and last week got shut out by an unranked Virginia Tech team that lost to James Madison. Which I always thought was a private high school. Anyone else hear that? Whatever.

If they were dropped from the schedule, I would not miss them.
You know what, maybe I’ll get more creative next week. For now, I’ll let their team demean themselves. Here you go:

Boston College vs. Virginia Tech "Highlights"

We mock you.

A pick of John L. Smith, because he's still funny.

The 2009 MSU/Notre Dame game was an opportunity for Notre Dame to reclaim any sense of "home field advantage" in this series. In 2008, MSU became the first home winner in the series out of the last 8 contests, and had already enjoyed jokes on the Irish's behalf about feeling right at home in ND Stadium too, having claimed victory in the last 6 games in South Bend. The 2009 contest came right down to the final seconds, and wasn't won by the Irish until Kyle McCarthy intercepted a pass at the Irish 4 with 57 seconds left - an interception made possible only because a wide-open Spartan, Larry Caper, dropping a sure TD pass in the end zone moments before.

WR - The Replaced: Blair White - While most of the college football world was pretty aware of Mark Dell (returning for the Spartans this year), most of the world was probably just as unaware of Blair White, but he went on to be the 3rd most productive receiver in the Big Ten with 70 receptions for 990 yards and 9 TDs. Against the Irish, he tallied 6 catches for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns.

WR - The Replacement: B.J. Cunningham - Currently 3rd in total receptions with just 3 for 46 yards and 1 TD, he was actually 2nd to White in total receptions in 2009 with 48 catches, 641 yards and 4 TDs. Last year, against the Irish, he actually tallied more catches (7) than White, but didn't records a TD. And this year, it appears that the Spartan offense is much more focused on rushing the football than passing.

KR - The Replaced: Glenn Winsotn - In 2009, Winston had a fairly mediocre 21 kick returns for 503 yards, but quite a few of those yards were gained against the Irish. In the ND game, Winston had 154 return yards in 7 tries, including a 34 yard return. Glenn wont be facing the Irish this year, having been suspended indefinitely (and we can't seem to track an update) due to a fight with MSU hockey players in which a hockey player was severely injured.

KR - The Replacement: Keshawn Martin - Keshawn actually had more kickoff returns than Winston last year (23) and tallied one TD on a return. Keshawn was the 11th ranked kick returner in the nation in 2009. You may remember Keshawn's name, as he actually completed one of the passes for a touchdown that went to Blair White. This year, Keshawn just 4 returns for 89 yards.

CB - The Replaced: Jeremey Ware - Jeremy was 5th on the Spartan defense with 52 tackles last year - 39 of which were solo. Against the Irish in 2009, Ware was the top tackler on the Spartan squad with 7 solo stops.

CB - The Replacement: Johnny Adams - Near as we can tell simply from the NCAA stat sheets, Adams is the new starter at CB, replacing Ware. Though it does seem that there's a pretty healthy rotation in the spartan secondary too. Currently, Adams has 5 solo tackles and 4 assists. Adams did not play in ND Stadium last year.

My own answers to Ace's questions can be found on his site right hee-ya. And kidding aside, I really enjoyed doing this, so thanks to Ace for reaching out to us.

1) We like to kid all the time on HLS about how this is Rich Rodriquez's do-or-die season, and then kid about how much we'll hate to see him go. But seriously, is Rich's seat among the hottest in college football? And if Rodriquez fails to live up to expectations this season, what are those expectations, and at what point in the season would "failure" be determined? Are you on the lookout for a Florida-style Zooking of Rodriguez to make a move oh whoever the hottest CFB HC happens to be in late-October/early-November?

It’s tough to argue that Rodriguez is on the hot seat – when it comes down to it, losing seasons just aren’t acceptable at Michigan regardless of circumstance. Personally, I think expectations for Rodriguez were far too high when he came to Ann Arbor, as Lloyd Carr did not do a good job recruiting -- especially defensively -- in his last couple seasons (that’s not to say I don’t like and respect Carr, who I think is one of the best to ever coach here, but he may have held on too long), and Rodriguez had to make do with players recruited for a pro-style offense while waiting for his recruits to be ready to see the field.

After two awful seasons, I think the reasonable preseason expectations were for Michigan to simply make a bowl, and I expect that will be enough to save Rodriguez’s job, with the assumption that the team will continue to progress as he finally has a team of almost entirely his recruits in 2011. Personally, I think Rodriguez will have a lot of success at Michigan if he gets the chance, and given the obvious progress this team has made since 2008, I’m betting he’ll be around for a while. The players love him, he has succeeded at every other job he’s had at the college level, and I think the fans are finally realizing that at some point it might be best for the program to deviate from the Bo Schembechler coaching tree.

2) Every year I like to award one opposing player on the Irish schedule the "HLS Paul Reiser Award" for being the absolutely most annoying entity on the Irish schedule, and thus making me hate him for no reason other than his annoying-ness. 2 years ago, Sam McGuffie won this award. Last year, I gave it to Tate Forcier. You may see a trend here: I'm giving this award to those "little engines that could" against the Irish, all the way to the point of making me want to kill. Right now, I'm leaning towards handing it over to Purdue's Robert Marve already, knowing full well we've also got Ricky Dobbs on the schedule, but who do you think I'll want to hand this award to after the game this weekend?

Besides Denard Robinson? I’d go with sophomore tailback Vincent Smith, who is Michigan’s nominal starter while splitting carries with junior Michael Shaw. Smith is a 5-6 waterbug who runs hard, doesn’t get taken down by arm tackles, blocks very well for a back, and is a very good receiver out of the backfield. He scored two touchdowns against UConn, the first on a run from 12 yards out in which he just plowed right through some poor attempts to tackle him, the second on a beautifully-executed screen from the 11-yard line, and late last season Smith really came on strong as perhaps Michigan’s most well-rounded back. I doubt we’re going to see Robinson run the ball 29 times again, so expect to see Smith get more carries and also be a big factor in the passing game, especially as an outlet if the Irish bring some heat. If you’re looking for a “little engine that could,” Smith is definitely that guy for the Wolverines this year.

3) We love diving into stats and teasing out probably meaningless numbers and spinning them into entire arguments about "why our team did/didn't manage to do X." Give us a stat about Michigan that could be spun in such a way.

I’m still trying to figure out how to interpret UConn’s passing stats from last weekend. Zach Fraser finished just 18-of-37 for 205 yards and no touchdowns, which was a huge victory for the Wolverines considering the complete decimation of our secondary due to a variety of circumstances (Troy Woolfolk’s injury, key transfers, and Donovan Warren leaving early for the NFL only to go undrafted come to mind).

On one hand, Michigan didn’t give up any big plays outside of a 40-yard completion in which UConn’s receiver bobbled the ball for about 20 of those yards and our free safety couldn’t figure out whether to go for the ball or decleat the wideout – he went for the ball and missed, but the play was pretty fluky. On the other hand, UConn’s wideouts dropped some key passes, including one near our goal line, and Fraser was pretty inaccurate on a day when the wind played a major factor in the game.

So, is Michigan’s secondary actually not terrible or were they just lucky to face a sub-par passing attack on a windy day? Honestly, I have no clue. We’ll know a lot more when we see how the team tries to stop Floyd, Rudolph, Kamara, Riddick, and Jones on Saturday.

4) Denard Robinson obviously had a glorious game last weekend, but your other ball carriers who are not also designated as QBs had pretty tepid days. Any concerns? (And note, we fully buy into the idea that some offensive lines simply block better for one guy than they do others.)

As you can see by my above praise of Smith, I’m pretty unconcerned with anything involving the running game. The offensive line has a ton of experience, and they had a spectacular day blocking the run against UConn – Shaw’s numbers are skewed pretty negatively thanks to one bad play in which he broke a tackle in the backfield and ran backwards, ending in a 10-yard loss on a play that probably should have just gone for no gain. Otherwise, the backs actually did a solid job when they did run the ball, and their yards per carry was certainly hurt when Michigan started blatantly grinding down the clock – they carried the ball 11 times for eight yards after the team went up 30-10 and the team was content to run the ball into the line and let the clock bleed out.

Michigan was expected to play at least three, if not four, running backs, but the coaches liked what they saw from Smith and Shaw enough that no other back saw meaningful time. The way UConn was guarding against the zone read, the holes were there for Robinson more than they were for the running backs, and he took advantage – that’s why the option is so tough to guard. I don’t expect Robinson to gash Notre Dame’s defense the way he did UConn’s (those numbers would be pretty tough to replicate), but I also don’t expect Michigan’s running backs to average just 3.4 yards per carry, either, especially in a close game.

5) Rich Rodriguez has said this week that he may actually try to get all 3 Michigan QBs onto the field this weekend. Outside of injury or blowout scenarios, this seems hard for us to believe and more likely just a ploy to force ND's defense to try to work some Tate Forcier situations into their show teams. Still, Michigan did do a little QB mix-and-match last year. Do you think Rodriquez would really take Denard off the field for any reason other than injury, blowout, or absolutely abysmal play?

I highly doubt it. Rodriguez said the exact same thing before the UConn game (including having the exact same depth chart, which reads Denard Robinson OR Tate Forcier OR Devin Gardner) and we all saw what actually happened.

The one scenario outside of injury, blowout, or poor play that I could foresee Michigan bringing in another quarterback is in the red zone – Forcier is supposedly more efficient near the goal line than Robinson, at least in practice. If last week’s benching was more a punishment for Forcier’s lackadaisical attitude toward summer workouts than anything else, we could see him get his own red zone package the rest of the year.

But, Denard put 30 points on the board in just nine possessions last week, and the team has clearly rallied around him as the leader of the offense. I think the coaches will give him every chance to show that he’s the answer at quarterback regardless of situation.

Thanks again to Ace!

Michigan, we mock you.

Welcome back HLS readers, to the fifth annual DeepTeaKup Michigan Football preview. This is truly an honor. I really do enjoy this site, in spite of the Biscuit, and it’s been fun to see it grow over the years.

Although I enjoyed the UConn game tremendously, now that I’ve had a few days to let it sink in I’m not quite sure what I’ve learned about this year’s UM team. The offence, by which I mean Denard Robinson, was a pleasant surprise. The defense was okay at times but they are going to give up some serious points this year. Most likely not a BCS team this year but feeling a bit better about winning the bet with the Biscuit.

Offence

Quarterback: For the third year in a row under Rich Rodriguez UM started this season with a new QB, it’s safe to say Denard Robinson had by far the best debut of them all. 19-22 passing (guess he learned to throw a bit, huh Biscuit?), NCAA leader in pass efficiency, almost 200 yards rushing, no turnovers. I think it’s safe to say we’ll be seeing him on the stage at the Downtown Athletic Club in December. Okay, that might not be realistic but he did look great in his debut. The running ability was a given but it was great to see the improved passing, pocket presence, but most impressive of all the decision making and looking comfortable in the offence. Really wish he would slide a bit more at the end of some of these runs, don’t think he can hold up all season taking hits like that. Devin Gardner is, for now the backup, and is getting hype as the QB of the future. Tate Forcier is the third string, and will be called upon at some point this year to help the team out. I’m not going to waste time going into the ongoing Forcier drama except to say he needs to grow up. Consider the example of Brian Greise, started in 95, demoted to second string QB/pooch punter in 96, NC winner in 97. There’s a lesson in there somewhere, probably something to do with shutting up, working hard.

Running Back: For me, this is the position group that needs to improve most for UM to win at South Bend this weekend. There are two distinct groups of RB’s here, speed and power backs, we’ll go through the speed backs group first.

Michael Shaw was the nominal starter, looked okay at times, still needs to work on getting north-south more quickly and learn that sometimes it’s better to take a 1-2 yard gain instead of 3-4 yard loss while trying to make a big play. Vincent Smith, listed at about 5-7 170, is right now the best all around back, he’s a threat as a receiver and runs tougher than his size, he can not be arm tackled. I would love to see him get the bulk of the speed back snaps this week. Fitzgerald Touissant got some hype coming out of spring/fall but is hurt and may not play this week.

Contrary to the “Rich Rod only likes smurf type RB’s” meme, there is a role for the power RB in this offence. Mike Cox, according to coaches and other people on the team, may the best athlete on the team. The issues with him are, apparently, mental, but in his limited time on the field he has shown some flashes. Stephen Hawkins is a true frosh, not really counting on him to do much this year, but is getting some practice hype as a tough runner.

Receivers: There are three distinct groups here, the prototypical outside WR, the slots and the TE’s. The true WR’s most likely to play on Saturday are Darryl Stonum, ND fans should be somewhat familiar with his playmaking ability. He looks like he’s becoming a better WR at this point too, he got contacts in the offseason which should help with his drops. Martavious Odoms started in the slot last year, but is playing outside this year because of his blocking ability, in all seriousness the blocking from the receivers was outstanding against UConn, made the difference on several of Denard’s big runs. Jeremy Jackson (RB coach Fred Jackson’s son) also played against UConn, and may play a bit against ND. IMO, he’s going to grow into a TE by the time he’s a JR. Junior Hemmingway, who played against ND last year, has been hurt is not expected to play this year in South Bend. At slot, there is Kelvin Grady, Terrrance Robinson, Jeremy Gallon, all of whom can make plays from the position. Kevin Koger and Martell Webb are both great athletes at TE, Webb looks like the better blocker, Koger the better receiver.

Offensive Line: My initial thought as I watched the game on Saturday was that the OL just looked dominant, but as I see the highlights I wonder if it was more Denard than anything else. The pass protection was very good but the run blocking needs to be improved. The best player on the line is OC David Molk, does not have great physical measurements but he is the heart and soul of the line. At OG Steve Schilling will play on Sundays next year and Patrick Omameh seems to be developing much quicker than expected. The OT are the weakest part of the group, one of Huyge or Dorrenstein will most likely be replaced by Taylor Lewan by the end of the year.

Defense

Defensive Line: Despite losing Brandon Graham, this is still the strength (relatively speaking of course) of the defense. Similar to ND, UM is running a 3 man line this season. Mike Martin is the NT in this set up, I think he’s a better pass rusher than a run stopper, but he has all B10, first day NFL draft type potential. Will Campbell seems to be stuck on the bench this year but did show some good (and lots of bad) last season. The DE’s (Ryan Van Bergen, Greg Banks) are not going to get a ton of sacks but they are decent in run support which is what you hope for in a 3 man line. I think Jibreel Black, true

Linebackers: UM is running a 3-3-5, so they feature two middle backs. Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are once again teasing UM fans with their potential. They both looked okay against UConn, but I want to see them do it week to week. Craig “Death Roh” Roh is without a doubt the best pass rusher on the team, I expect him to give Crist some problems on Saturday. There is not a lot of quality depth at the LB positions. Mark Moundros is a converted FB and will probably will play more of a factor against Iowa and Wisconsin type teams. If Kenny Demens or JB Fitzgerald is getting significant playing time, it’s probably bad; Either Ezeh or Mouton is hurt and/or not playing well.

Defensive Backs: I’m scared to say much of anything here; god knows who’s going to get hurt between now and Saturday. If I have to go into this, the CB’s are JT Floyd and James Rogers. They were not really tested last week. That will change this week. I expect Floyd to start his AA campaign this week. Rudolph will probably also move up a few draft spots on this game alone. I also expect Cullen Christian and Terry Talbott, both true FR, to play a lot this week as I think ND will go 4-5 wide a lot. At safety, Jordan Kovacs, former walk on and UM’s own Rudy, made his debut against ND last year and has not been beaten out of the line up yet. He is good to great against the run and maybe the best one on one tackler on the team, but he will get abused in pass coverage. I expect to see Marvin Robinson take some of his snaps by the end of the year. The deep safety is Cam Gordon, first year starter, made some good hits against UConn but also had a couple of whiffs and was not really tested in pass coverage.

Special Teams

This was not really a factor against UConn. UM only punted once so I can’t really say how well Hagerup replaces Mesko but he looks the part. I guess the new typical UM punter is about 6’4 and 210. Brendan Gibbons is the PK, missed a longish FG on a windy day and shanked an XP (which upon further review appeared to be a problem with the hold), hopefully the game does not come down to a FG for UM. Nothing of note happened in the return game but UM covered kicks pretty well. Bottom line, I just hope UM covers kicks well, does not have a turnover in the return game, and fields kicks cleanly this weekend.

Predictions

Just a note, I will not be able to be in the shoutbox this weekend either during the game of after. I know it will be a disappointment for those of you looking for my ongoing commentary as Denard shreds ND for 125 rushing and 210 passing but I will be in New Bern, NC doing the MS 150 bike ride. This is part of my two pronged campaign to complete an Ironman by the time I’m 40 and to shame domer into getting back into shape.

(I'm in shape - a shape - and a 45 lbs. smaller shape than last season, dammit. - dmq)

Random Predictions:

• Denard stays a darkhorse Heisman contender for another week.
• Crist throws for 300.
• Floyd goes over 100, Rudolph gets real close.
• Vincent Smith goes over 100 rushing, 50 receiving.
• Craig Roh gets 2 sacks.
• I don’t know what the record for single game combined total yardage in this series is, but a new record will be set Saturday.

Final Score: UM 38 ND 34.

Anyway, they've posted some thoughts on yesterday's game, and I think they're worth linking here. It's interesting to see it from their perspective. So here it is.

I'm still letting my thoughts age.

As of now, you can go online to the school's official website and purchase tickets to all but the first two home games. Of course, add on a $5 fee and a $9 order charge to that ticket. I don’t know what those charges are for, exactly, but it’s fine by me, because I poop fourteen-dollar bills. I do. It’s gross, but I really do. I’d be happy to mail you one. They work at Wal-Mart only, for some reason.

Stingy rant aside, other schools sometimes do have to hustle a bit to sell-out the old chicken-wire-lined patch of grass they call “home.” Purdue, in particular, is a stadium I’ve been to that reminded me a bit too much of John Steinbeck’s dustbowl. Everything covered in a brown film, people in tattered clothing, limping around all thirsty and shit. Pardon me. I may be thinking of “The Road.” Either way, that was Purdue, as I recall it.

It’s changed since then, apparently, with a $70 million dollar makeover completed seven years ago, and a few years back they tossed up a $1.7 million flat panel over their gigantic faux-fireplace. That way when you fall asleep at the game it can feel a little more like a Double Tree Inn.
Last year, the average attendance in their 62,500 seat stadium was just shy of 50,000, so around one of every five seats lay fallow on a typical game day, gathering up nutrients, sunlight, and restorative energy, awaiting the day when a four hundred pound man dressed as a locomotive engine will take his place in that well-rested seat.
For that reason, from time to time Purdue’s got to bust out the fishnet hosiery and shake it a little bit. Their ticket website offers group discounts, variable pricing dependent on the strength of the opponent, buy-one-get-one-free promotions, reasonable rates on half and halfs, the works. It warms the cockles of my stingy heart. They also produce videos such as this one , which, for the joy that comes with swatting a small child’s jumpshot, we have amateurishly re-dubbed for you here and now.

Purdue: we mock you and we mock your multi-media presentation.
Football is nigh. Amen.